Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: October-December

Newspoll’s quarterly aggregations find South Australia leading the pack in a two-point shift to Labor from July-September to October-December.

Merry Christmas – The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregations broken down by state and metropolitan/non-metropolitan – though not, as it usually does, by age group. Hopefully this will be forthcoming, either from The Australian or when Newspoll makes its release available in a fortnight or so. (UPDATE: And here it is, together with gender breakdowns whose absence I had failed to note). The only commentary I have to offer at this point is that the biggest state-level shift to Labor recorded by Newspoll has been in South Australia – something I have been expecting polling to show given recent events there, but which hasn’t come through so far in the pollsters who are driving BludgerTrack. With Newspoll’s numbers now at my disposal, I will shortly get to work on quarterly state breakdowns from the full BludgerTrack dataset.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have a JWS Research poll concerning the government’s performance over several issue areas, which is notable for the size of the gender gaps it identifies.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,130 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: October-December”

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  2. [ DF would be worth an anonymous tip to ASIO (with the the hint that he personally approves of torture). ]

    I laughed at that in the last thread. I have seen comments from people who were posting about Ackerman and Bolts articles during the Gillard Govt, who were obviously regulars and who really should have been been wither moderated into oblivion or tracked by the AFP. DF is, while an obvious moron with issues, not so blatantly batshit deranged insane as some of those people.

    I always find it amusing that much worse than the kind of stuff that gets quite rightly moderated off here, is perfectly acceptable when posted by the “regulars” on some of the more right leaning blogs i have visited.

    Interesting how Morrison is shaping up. I’m coming to see his appointment in the reshuffle as a definite move by the the right wing fundies in the Libs to set him up as a viable alternative to Bishop. I’m just not so sure that he can translate the tactics he’s used “successfully” in Immigration to the Social Services portfolio and suspect he will come down to earth with a thud.

    He “succeeded” with:

    “Give me my legislation and new powers or the kids stay in detention.”

    And now he appears to be heading down the path of:

    “Give me my the budget cuts i want or the NDIS folds.”

    And:

    “Give me my version of PPL or there will be no new money for child care.”

    Yup there are stupid people out there who will accept him conflating issues as a negotiating tactic. But there are Senators that already feel done over by that, who may be looking for a bit of payback, and may not actually give a toss about PPL or Childcare, and may be very unhappy if it appears Scoot is holding the disabled to ransom in any way.

    And it doesn’t get them any further away from the unfairness of their budget, or deal with any revenue issues? And GST thresholds for online purchases is not exactly the nations most pressing revenue issue unless your Gerry Harvey.

    All this makes me wonder who Scoot is actually taking his marching orders from?

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    I am sure the impressive Dutton will handle this with aplomb.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/more-than-62000-people-living-illegally-in-australia-20141226-12dxod.html
    Jacqui Maley looks at how Abbott’ is really on the nose with women.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/women-expect-a-better-half-from-team-abbott-20141226-12d2rp.html
    One can certainly empathise with these thoughts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/forget-the-detox-emails-and-exercise–you-really-do-deserve-a-break-20141226-12c428.html
    A thoughtful reflection from Pau McGeogh on his time covering MH17.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/my-christmas-offering-sunflower-seeds-for-mh17-families-from-the-fields-of-ukraine-20141226-12dily.html
    Morrison will stand by these tenants, won’t he.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/how-the-top-end-of-town-muscled-in-on-welfare-street-20141226-12ddlw.html
    John Birmingham has his say on this matter.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/promise-worth-little-when-they-want-you-gone-20141226-12dljz.html
    Ross Gittins – Material success has come at the cost of the environment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/materialist-success-has-come-at-the-cost-of-the-environment-20141225-12dh0d.html
    Some movement on the mental health front in NSW.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/an-unsexy-health-problem-awaits-its-fair-share-20141226-12dgin.html
    Richard Glover weighs up the merits of staying at home for the holidays.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/richard-glover-gets-rental-as-anything-for-the-holidays-20141226-12cutj.html

  5. Section 2 . . .

    Peter FitzSimons has some good advice for Anthony Mundine.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/the-fitz-files/anthony-mundine-should-hang-up-his-gloves-for-his-own-sake-20141226-12dvc1.html
    Some achievable New Year’s resolutions.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/new-years-resolutions-make-it-easy-on-yourself-20141226-12audy.html
    The Independent Australia’s best and worst films for the summer.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/spooner-gallery-20090716-dmsv.html
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/12/26/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-49-3/
    Watson, the master of mediocrity does it again.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/2014/12/26/third-test-melbourne-day-1-watson-extends-career/
    Ron Tandberg with a festive season warning.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    MUST SEE! David Pope ominously welcomes Morrison to his new portfolio.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
    John Spooner with the dark side of Boxing Day sales.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/spooner-gallery-20090716-dmsv.html

  6. A typical “more in sadness than in anger” piece, advising the Pope to stick to his knitting. How dare he have a view on capitalism.

    [There can be no doubt that Pope Francis is a devoted and selfless man who has dedicated his life to serving others. A phenomenal theologian, he abhors war and poverty and is an inspiration to hundreds of millions of believers; he has gained widespread respect even among those who disagree with the Catholic church’s teachings.

    So it is with great sadness that I must take exception to the Pope’s views on economics and business. His hostility to capitalism is tragically misplaced. He has repeatedly savaged free markets and aligned himself with the views of Thomas Piketty, the far-left intellectual who obsesses about inequality and advocates crippling taxes on income and wealth.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/devil-in-the-detail-of-popes-attack-on-capitalism-20141226-12bm17.html

  7. This ain’t your daddy’s labor party. You would have thought after Rudd Gillard Rudd they would have learned their lesson – but now look what they have done to the noble Robbo and they are in shock the liberals don’t apply their same low ethical standards to Abbott.

  8. Decision on trawlers still not going to be effective.

    [He said the decision would allow foreign-owned and operated vessels to fish in Australian waters without paying tax.

    Logan pointed to the 4,400-tonne Ukrainian-owned Meridian 1, which is sitting off the coast of New Zealand, as an example of a vessel that will be allowed to operate in Australia under the new regulation. The Meridian is 104 metres long and therefore not classified as a supertrawler under the government’s definition.

    “This is a pre-emptive strike by the government,” Logan said. “It’s pretty clear that this announcement is a Trojan horse.” The government was opening the door to let vessels trawl the Bass strait, Logan said.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/26/supertrawler-ban-is-flawed-say-environmental-and-fishing-groups

  9. lizzie

    The writer is from a paper nicknamed The Torygraph so I guess it is no surprise. An amusing but accurate (still?) explanation from Yes Prime Minister of who reads what newspaper.

    [ Jim Hacker: Don’t tell me about the Press. I know *exactly* who reads the papers. The Daily Mirror is read by the people who think they run the country. The Guardian is read by people who think they *ought* to run the country. The Times is read by the people who actually *do* run the country. The Daily Mail is read by the wives of the people who run the country. The Financial Times is read by people who *own* the country. The Morning Star is read by people who think the country ought to be run by *another* country. The Daily Telegraph is read by the people who think it is.]

  18. State Breakdowns Morgan Vs Newspoll
    State, Morgan ALP, Newspoll ALP, Newspoll minus Morgan
    NSW, 52.5, 54, 1.5
    Vic, 58.5, 60, 1.5
    QLD, 52.25, 52, -0.25
    WA, 50.06, 47, -2.94
    SA, 55. 42,54, -1.42

  19. [Simon Katich
    Posted Friday, December 26, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    To be fair to the building and Seidler, it was meant to be a part of a large group of high rise on the point – which was going to be zoned industrial before Seidler (i think) persuaded them to go for high density residential. But after the first was built, the planners/councillors changed their minds.]

    Yep. The other side of the Harbour on the eastern side of the Bridge in The Rocks, they planned to build a coal fired power station and even built the enormously high chimney stack which is still there today but was never used.

    Bennelong point where the Opera House now stands was used as tram sheds.

  20. ESJ

    ah so you’re celebrating Xmas by being a turkey…

    The NSW, Victorian and NT Liberals all changed leaders in relatively recent times….the unethical b*stards.

  22. GG you mensch! I hope you enjoyed the paterfamilias role over Christmas before you go back to fleecing people with dodge mortgages.

    The truth of the matter is Labor rats on its leaders. once the ranks get a taste for blood it’s very hard to give it up. We shoot rabid dogs why not start again with a genuine left alternative ?

  25. [ Edwina StJohn
    Posted Saturday, December 27, 2014 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    The truth of the matter is Labor rats on its leaders. once the ranks get a taste for blood it’s very hard to give it up. We shoot rabid dogs why not start again with a genuine left alternative ?]

    Inciting political violence now.

    Thats enough to get you on ASIO watch lists, but completely unwelcome here.

    Take that nonsense elsewhere.

  26. It seems the latest Iraq war isn’t going too well (Murdoch’s Oz no less tells us so):

    [EXCLUSIVE
    ‘Stalemate’ in war on jihadis
    ‘Stalemate’ in war on jihadis
    BRENDAN NICHOLSON
    THE air campaign against Islamic State and the ­limited training of Iraqi ground troops have done little to turn the tide.]

  27. ESJ,

    That you for the compliment. Merry Christmas to your family too.

    A man does need to have a hobby!

    Apart from you, no one seems to be mourning Robbo’s demise. From afar it seems he never had it and because he didn’t know what it was and was never going to find it.

  29. Meanwhile in Murdoch Oz land the usual suspects are writing the same old opinion pieces they have been doing for ages. Apparently in their eyes the barnacles have been scraped off the ship, the course has been reset and SS Abbott is sailing in calm seas.

  32. Morning all

    From previous thread. Worth reposting

    [Leroy Lynch
    Posted Saturday, December 27, 2014 at 12:17 am | PERMALINK
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-coalition-dives-but-alps-joy-limited/story-fnc6vkbc-1227167497445

    Newspoll: Coalition dives but ALP’s joy limited
    THE AUSTRALIAN DECEMBER 27, 2014 12:00AM
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    THE Abbott government has suffered a sharp plunge in support across all states over the past year and is significantly behind Labor in two-party-preferred terms everywhere except in Western Australia.

    In Victoria, the Coalition’s primary vote has tumbled to a six-year low while the ALP’s support is at a four-year high in Tony Abbott’s home state of NSW, where Bill Shorten ranks as the better prime minister.

    Country voters have also put the opposition ahead in two-party terms for the first time since 2010.

    An analysis of Newspolls conducted exclusively for The Australian from October to this month reveals that, over the past 12 months, the Coalition’s primary vote has tumbled 10 points in Victoria and South Australia, nine points in NSW, eight points in Queensland and seven points in Western Australia.

    Full Table
    http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/12/26/1227167/481924-aus-file-federal-newspoll.pdf

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/not-quite-cooked-but-abbott-feeling-the-heat/story-e6frg6n6-1227167411033

    Not quite cooked but Abbott feeling the heat
    THE AUSTRALIAN DECEMBER 27, 2014 12:00AM
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    THIS month, Tony Abbott quietly reached 450 days in power and overtook Joseph Cook to be Australia’s 21st longest-serving prime minister.

    It means Cook keeps the unwelcome title of the shortest-serving elected prime minister.

    Cook came to power 100 years earlier than Abbott, in 1913, and like Abbott never controlled the Senate. In frustration, he called the nation’s first double dissolution election, which coincided with the outbreak of World War I, and he lost.

    Abbott is not yet halfway through his term and is unlikely to rush to a double dissolution, but the latest Newspoll showing heavy swings against the Coalition in Victoria, South Australia, NSW and Queensland suggest he is at risk of matching Cook’s fate.

    While there hasn’t been a
    one-term government since the hapless James Scullin lost in 1931 in the shadow of the Great Depression, there have been a surprisingly long list of prime ministers who have won only one election: Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, Paul Keating, John Gorton, Harold Holt, Ben Chifley, John Curtin, Edmund Barton, Scullin and Cook. Seven others ruled without ever winning an election.

    A sobering thought for Abbott is that, in the past 50 years, only John Howard, Bob Hawke, Malcolm Fraser and Gough Whitlam have won more than one election.]

  33. ESJ: the Abbott government’s program of ‘reform’ is destructive. How competent or united the Coalition parties mmay be compared to Labor is therefore beside the point. I want to see it blocked and contained until we have a chance to boot it out.

    In any case, in terms of competence, the Abbott Government must have been a huge disappointment to its supporters.

  36. And this too from Leroy

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jobless-numbers-rise-in-coalition-seats-but-fall-for-alp-electorates/story-fn59niix-1227167411215

    Jobless numbers rise in Coalition seats but fall for ALP electorates
    The Australian December 27, 2014 12:00AM
    Stefanie Balogh
    Canberra

    COALITION electorates are ­experiencing the biggest rises in unemployment while jobs growth occurs in Labor-held seats, as part of a demographic wave that threatens to hinder the Abbott government’s electoral ambitions.

    John Black, a former Labor senator and now head of demographic profiling firm Australian Development Strategies, writes exclusively in The Weekend Australian today that, in the past three federal elections, “men and women without a job tended to be found in Labor electorates’’.

    “In the past 12 months, these residents of Labor seats have been finding jobs, while residents of ­Coalition seats have been losing theirs,” he writes. “If this is … a clever economic and political strategy by the Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his Treasurer Joe Hockey to secure re-election, it needs a little finetuning, perhaps, sooner rather than later.’’

    The Australian Jobs Profile for November Quarter 2014 report prepared by Australian Development Strategies used statistical modelling to project an estimate of regional unemployment ­figures onto federal electoral boundaries.

    The results revealed 28 electorates had been hit by rises in unemployment rates greater than 1.5 percentage points in the past year and therefore could be considered “to be in a regional recession’’.

    The top five electorates for ­rising jobless numbers were the Liberal National Party-held Queensland electorates of McPherson and nearby Moncrieff as well as Fisher, along with the Liberal seats of Gilmore in NSW and Flinders in Victoria. In fact, 24 of the 28 electorates with the biggest rises in unemployment rates are held by the ­Coalition.

  37. lizzie

    This is typical modus operandi from the Oz. They always have headlines like that. I cant recall a headline that was a positive for the ALP from them for a very long time

  40. I think australian politicians are like French generals,fighting the last war. Abbott clearly backed down late in the day on the budget – presumably for fear of being branded chaotic a la Gillardine. I think one term government and then I think Laurie ferguson and Maria vamvanikou and bill shorten nah ain’t gonna happen.

  42. A modest question, if the Oz upsets you so much why do you all obsessively read it? It’s a little stockholmish – just saying.

  43. ESJ,

    Laurie and Maria are your archetypal good local members. The Parliament needs them on all sides.

    Your dismissal of Shorten is just stubbornness and refusal to recognise the rising star of Australian politics. You can’t seem to overcome those nasty little prejudices that permeate your regular posts.

    His speeches in the latter half or 2014 were substantive and the delivery is almost Kennedyesque in the tone and lilt.

    Some people see Bill and say Why? Others dream of Bill and say “Why Not”.

    (PS I know you’re not a donut)

  44. ..whereas a front bench filled with people like Hockey, Andrews, Dutton and Pyne just has the Australian people purring like kittens.

    ESJ, don’t come on to a polling site and then make predictions based on feelings in your waters.

  45. Of course, Liberal types and experienced commentators were saying that Labor couldn’t win in Victoria because one term governments don’t get thrown out…

    I have been meaning to point out for some time that the idea that voters ‘punish’ first term governments but stop short of tossing them out is based on a curious assumption — that there’s some kind of voter ‘group mind’ which means that the electorate votes so far and no further.

    The idea that 7 million people cast their votes one way and that the 7 million and oneth says, “Well, I was going to vote for the Opposition and Send The Government A Message but if I do that now, it will deliver government to the Opposition, so I’d better not” doesn’t stand any test of logic or human behaviour.

    First term governments who have survived by the skin of their teeth have basically been lucky. It hasn’t been because of a co ordinated strategy on the part of the electorate.

  46. [
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Saturday, December 27, 2014 at 9:26 am | Permalink
    …
    I think one term government and then I think Laurie ferguson and Maria vamvanikou and bill shorten nah ain’t gonna happen.
    ]
    Good, there will be nothing wrong with the New Liberal being consigned to the wilderness for 6 years because of their delusions.

  48. I say again: if Newscorp newspapers are writing letters, via op-eds to Tony Abbott, then that is the clearest sign of all that he has gone feral.

    Newscorp made the Monster out of various spare parts lying around the laboratory – a head here, a brainfart there, a “Statesman” comb-over added for respectability pulled from the bottom drawer – and now it stalks the land, free of its creator’s shackles.

    Plaintive notes posted on forest trees – “Please come back Tony”- are falling on deafer and deafer ears. It has always been thus with Abbott. Many have trusted him, but few have trusted him twice. Forgiving him his indiscretions only encourages him to push the envelope further. Take your eyes off him for even a second and he’s through the door and out the window.

    Now he has a whole nation to feed his ego. He’ll suck it dry and spit it out. His self-obsession cannot admit error or revision, or doubt. If he goes down, he’ll take what he sees as an ungrateful Australia, not worthy of his time, with him.

    They are *still* blaming Labor as the preferred alternative to doing something, anything. This is the culmination of 450 days of spin and excuses. It’s not a policy. It’s scorched earth. They’re hoping to wear us out with their obstinacy, not prepared to admit there might be another, better way.

    My rellies-in-law yesterday, with their disabled daughter, swore blind that everyone else was working and rorting the Disability Pension system… except them. Their girl was a special case. She lives a life of breezy happiness, comforted and cosseted by her adoring parents. And why not? She is an adorable girl, not like those Lebbo bludgers taking from the taxpayer while they plan their Jihad against their benefactors.

    But this young woman can walk, and (after a fashion) talk. If she can master communication, even at her rudimentary level, she can work. Morrison and Andrews will be after her. No more Inala school. No more parties with her friends, getting dropped off and picked up by Dad. No more of the aunts telling her how special she is. Now she’s an economic unit, even if she doesn’t realize it yet, and perhaps cannot even understand the concept.

    There’ll be reassessments, reviews and ever longer forms to fill out. It won’t be so easy for her to live the carefree life she’s been living. Even if it’s one or two days a week, she’ll be out there stuffing Christmas stockings, or assembling widgets in a sheltered workshop. It won’t matter that she gets tired and distracted after half an hour of having to concentrate. Her beloved maps won’t be with her. Knowing all the names of all the towns and villages in the world won’t mean anything to the bean counters. Her usefulness will be measured only in her capacity to increase Abbott’s poll numbers by reducing Social Security numbers, numbers grafted from a raw mine of Joe Hockey leaners and Daily Telegraph-style bludgers.

    Her aunt, a wealthy, retired recruitment specialist, will soon have her easy declaration that “there are plenty of jobs out there for anyone who wants to work” tested. Her mother (in the same game) will see her daughter subjected to stresses that her parents have tried to shield her from all her young life.

    The angry Murdoch readers will feel better about their own miserable lives, having this poor kid to pick on. Morrison will be able to kneel at the front of the temple, beating his breast in self-congratulation at a job well-done.

    Australia, if Abbott succeeds, is about to get nastier. He’ll be hoping for Australia’s forgiveness. I’m not sure he’s going to get it. They all become sick of him in the end, when they realize what makes him tick.

  50. I note from Kevin Bonham’s analysis of the Vic election that Labor went from getting 64% of 3rd party preferences to 69.5%. Why is then that many polling companies disregard what people say they will preference at the next election and use old data instead? Times change, as do voting patterns.

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