The latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll of federal voting intention for the Seven Network ticks a point in Labor’s favour, putting their two-party lead bang on BludgerTrack at 53-47. The biggest mover on the primary vote is Palmer United, who have slumped from 5.1% to 3.1%, with Labor up 1.2% to 38.7%, the Coalition up 0.1% to 40.2% and the Greens down 0.4% to 11.1%. Also featured are leadership ratings and attitudinal results on the G20 and, entertainingly, whether Jacqui Lambie should leave the Palmer United Party (43.4% yes, 17.6% no).
[What’s next?]
There are two years until the next election, therefore any number of anticipated or unanticipated issues which may benefit his govt.
In short, Abbott still has time to recover.
Confessions – having gotten that disclaimer out of the way though, it’s difficult to see a path to recovery that doesn’t involve Abbott disavowing pretty much everything he has done to date. That’s a big ask.
[
One word… Murdoch]
We’ve had Murdoch for the past year and even they can’t swing it. Now they’re criticising their own spruiking campaign by blaming it all on Peta Credlin.
As for the economy “improving”. I can only see it “accommodating” to restrained conditions.
the punters are waiting for something to happen and it’s not.
Eventually some will go back in the water, but they will NEVER trust Abbott again.
BB – as Waleed Aly said on QandA tonight, many people may have already made up their minds.
I’ll wait and see what the polls have to say mid next year, or at least after the next May budget is done and dusted.
If you see the kind of pattern developing that you saw in Howard’s final year where they were so consistent then yes that would be good.
But polls are a mixture of genuine shift in ideas and intention, and emotional fluff. And its near impossible to tell how much of 55/45 is one or the other. If its emotional fluff then it could easily evaporate. Rudd spent a lot of time above 55 and then when Murdoch did the pink batt beatup it all started to come undone.
I have to admit that no matter how good your turd polishing is, eventually you cannot defend the indefensible forever.
But, Labor also have to win the election. There’s a lot of people who aren’t going to vote for Labor if it has a typical small target strategy. Rather Labor is going to have to go in hard and actually sell some radical reform – especially with taxation. And you can imagine the front pages day in day out that will come with that.
JD,
I suspect many may have made up their minds that they don’t like Abbott. But sadly many of those same people are still convinced that Gillard lied, that Labor was dysfunctional and incompetent etc. They’re going to need convincing that Labor can “fix the budget” and Labor is going to have to get fairly definitive about how.
There’s an attitude out there in society that “they’re all as bad as each other”. And that’s a serious problem Labor is going to have to deal with. It prevents people from thinking about the details. For instance with the NBN, its going to be hard to convince the ordinary punter that there is a mile of a difference between a network that will be value for money because it will be there for 50 years, and and a network that will be written off in 5. Because in a lot of punter’s minds is still that “oh but Labor stuffed up too” idea.
I don’t know if Abbott will make it over the line in 2016 but today I saw his singularly worst performance in parliament that I can recall since him winning office. Shorten called him out as a liar and Abbott could not refute it, end of story.
Night.
[1551
confessions]
A first-term government should start out as favorites to win again. But this lot have governed poorly – from their most obvious weakness, which is the desire to put trophies in the cabinet.
As a result, they will not be remembered for achievements but for lies, broken promises, concealment, insults and denials.
Even if they could find a way to excuse their assault on the social contract (or, as they do, to deny such an assault has been carried out), public finance and economic growth will not be any the stronger for it. The budget, the economy and household incomes have all slipped. Who knows what 2015 will bring? The EU, Japan and China economies are all showing signs of fatigue. And this lot have nothing in reserve – no strategy, no economic policy, no vision.
They have squandered their fortune on the equivalent of ideological entertainments and picnics; and soon their fortune will be entirely gone.
cud chewer – I agree with everything you’ve said. At first I thought there was no way Labor would win with Shorten as he would be exactly the sort to run a small target campaign. However, I’m slowly gaining more confidence that he can go the distance. The censure speech, the budget reply speech, as well as the speech he gave to the ACL convinced me he can connect. Labor’s strategy of highlighting Abbott’s lies, particularly their campaign over uni fees, which has been all over social media, shows Labor has mongrel. But as you say, now they need to close the deal with some policy vision. Fixing the NBN will probably be popular, but they’ve got to do more than that. I think income and wealth inequality would be a great place to start, but then I’m a pinko.
briefly – it’s all bread and circuses – except the bread is soggy and mouldy, and the elephants have torched the circus tent.
I agree, but I think there is an inevitable opportunity arising in the next little while based on what the LNP are going to be forced to do. They will be forced to talk about serious revenue raising. They can’t be arguing about “Labor’s great big new tax!” and “Labor’s addiction to taxes” when they are proposing a hike in the GST or whatever else they may consider (which, frankly, is not a lot – I think it’s the GST or bust with this lot).
So, in the context of the LNP proposing substantial tax increases there is great opportunity (and risk, of course) for the ALP to put forward their own plan. “The LNP plan on slugging low income earners through the GST and Medicare copayments, here’s what we propose to do instead…”. It has to be a credible response. It has to add up and genuinely provide the revenue we need for all the services we want. It has to be brave. The ALP might, if it were brave enough, say “we propose a smaller GST rise, accompanied by X and Y and Z”, be it limiting negative gearing, super tax concession reform, FBT loopholes, that kind of thing – I don’t think an “ooga booga GST” response is helpful, and I doubt it would go down well with a public desperately looking for realistic alternatives.
I agree the economy is the main thing, but the probability of that helping the government is quite low. We want it to pick up slowly anyway because rapidly rising interest rates would create a new set of problems.
It would be nice if the government could at least start talking the economy up. After all, they did give everyone the impression that voting them was enough to fix everything.
The problem they have is so much of their economic policy is self contradictory and hard to defend. The picture that is emerging is that they govern for particular interests, because that is the only way they make sense.
Sure you can bung on the “2 years is a long time in politics” caveat, but it is hard to see life getting easier for them.
[ The right has temporarily lost its we are the only ones that know the way forward attitude. ]
No they haven’t and, that’s one of their biggest problems.
On the ALP campaigning on tax in 2016. They have a massive opportunity here.
The Libs have gone and made “fairness” the issue, AND are shaping up to promote hiking the GST as their ONLY answer to revenue issues. They are pretty much inoculating the electorate to the idea that someone is going to have to pay more tax.
ALP can oppose the GST rise without taking it off the agenda. All they have to do is make the case that there are “fairer” things that should be done to address revenue shortfalls before a GST rise is even contemplated.
You can actually keep the message fairly simple and i think it will resonate. The time for it to be ramped up will be after the next Budget, particularly if the Libs have not bitten the bullet and done a major reshuffle in cabinet by then.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/11/why-is-mining-so-unpopular/#comment-884925
[People revere mining because it produces something distinctly tangible. In this respect, we are operating on a subliminal ore-standard – a distant cousin of the gold standard. There is taken to be a kind of unspoken convertibility at work – AUD and IO are reciprocals of each other. The more IO we can turn out, the more inherent value there is presumed to be in our AUD.
But this is an illusion. We don’t use the IO in our own economy – for our own capital creation and consumption. We allow other economies to make free call on our reserves of IO. To a large extent, we don’t even supply the capital used to exploit these reserves so we don’t control the (transient) profits they generate.
The only advantage to us of running an IO sector is that it allows us to lift our imports – to raise our call on the production of other economies for some of their capital and consumption goods and services. But even this is overstated. The rise of the IO industry (because of the existence of an implied ORE-AUD standard) has been accompanied by exchange rate appreciation and the demise of a lot of other diversified exporters and import-competing firms.
Because people presume this quasi-convertibility applies, we attach unwarranted significance to mining. We have over-committed to mining (to the capital infusion and consumption of others) and under-committed to alternative productive sectors of the economy.
It’s obviously very short-sighted to do this. The capital allocated to mining and its allied sectors must necessarily deplete along with the ore bodies themselves. In spite of the occasional boom, the tendency in mining is invariably for decreasing returns to scale to set in, leading eventually to capital repatriation, declining profits and exhaustion.
Housing, of course, is not about investment at all. It is just about consumption, or, more exactly, the financialisation of consumption.
We need to re-think capital. People still act as if they believe that capital is an “essence” like gold or some other palpable thing that can be traded, such as IO or coal or LNG or copper. It isn’t. It’s more complex and interesting than that.
To re-boot this economy, we need to identify capital that is more like plastic (flexible) than gold (immutable), more like labour (smart, creative, social) than like machinery; we need to produce more of it and we need to allocate it to industries that exhibit increasing returns to scale.
None of this sounds like mining to me.]
I agree that a more progressive alternative tax plan is a good idea. It would give a mandate to fix the tax system after the election without a massive broken promises campaign afterwards.
Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 #auspol http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 oㄥO
#ABC, @cpyne & #turnbull Review by David Rowe © http://bit.ly/1HDhVlM
Briefly:
[But this is an illusion. We don’t use the IO in our own economy – for our own capital creation and consumption. We allow other economies to make free call on our reserves of IO.]
I wish wonks like the business person you are quoting would not use unfamiliar acronyms without first defining them. AUD is fine, it is standard, but it took me a while to work out that IO means Iron Ore.
Chuck chucks it in:
[Defense Secretary Hagel, under pressure, submits resignation]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/defense-secretary-hagel-under-pressure-submits-resignation/2014/11/24/77e75422-73e4-11e4-a5b2-e1217af6b33d_story.html
Don
I noticed a long time ago that financial types repeatedly make up acronyms and jargon terms to make them sound as though they are professionals. They are often just salesmen. They rarely explain them because otherwise the punters might see through their threadbare arguments.
I hadn’t heard of calling iron ore IO before. It is a quite stupid idea, because IO is already a standard term used in another part of economic analysis – Input Output analysis.
The Murdochians are trying to blame Mark Scott for the ABC closures, nothing to do with funding cuts at all.
Not gunna work.
Tony Abbott’s progress score for today on creating a million new jobs: -878 CSIRO jobs, mainly research. Thank the spaghetti monster the administrators are safe.
And yes, that is another promise broken.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/24/csiro-staff-association-says-no-area-of-research-has-been-saved-from-job-cuts
When will I hear reports of the government looking for savings by reducing the number of their media flakes, or handing the parliamentary super scheme over to a for-profit retail fund to get market based returns? ROTFL. These cuts are pure bastardy and ideology.
Have a good day all, if you still have a job.
ruawake
[The Murdochians are trying to blame Mark Scott for the ABC closures, nothing to do with funding cuts at all.
Not gunna work]
The idiots should have noted how that line went down like a lead balloon when Truffles tried it on last week . Turnbull said if there were any job cuts they are not the governments responsibility because it is the board not the government who allocates where ABC money is spent.
Hugh White on Abbott’s ides of “diplomacy”. And the free trade agreement isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.
[So why did he do it? The obvious answer is the free trade agreement, but can Australia’s geopolitical alignment really be brought so cheaply? For all the hoopla, the agreement is unlikely to do more for Australia’s economy overall than the equally-hyped US free trade agreement has done – and that is, according to the government’s Productivity Commission, exactly nothing. The government estimates the effect of a free trade agreement with Chinais a possible GDP increase of 0.039 per cent a year, which is so near to nothing that it doesn’t matter.
Another answer is that he is just hopping mad with Obama over his climate change remarks, and has chosen to ignore Obama’s warnings about China and cosy up to Xi just to spite him. But surely he couldn’t be that petty.
So perhaps the best explanation is also the simplest. Abbott does not know what he is doing. Despite the speeches he has heard over the past 10 days, he underestimates how stark the rivalry between America and China has become, and he overestimates Australia’s ability to stand above it.
He probably believes that what he said last week will soon be forgotten, and he can return to his alignment with the US and Japan against China whenever he likes, with the free trade deal in his pocket. He perhaps mistakes such patent insincerity for clever diplomacy.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/abbott-clueless-on-how-to-handle-us-and-china-20141124-11sko3.html#ixzz3K1HSAlKE
Grammar pedants like me will note the mis-use of brought for bought in the second line. It seems the confusion between the two is now standard.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Mark Kenny – the budget turns in this final sitting fortnight.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/budget-turns-on-final-sitting-fortnight-20141124-11spqk.html
And here’s an example of how difficult it will be for them.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/disability-wage-tool-defeated-in-senate-as-jacqui-lambie-votes-against-palmer-united-party-20141124-11t27f.html
Michelle Grattan on the new dynamics in the senate.
https://theconversation.com/palmer-bitten-as-pup-senator-breaks-the-chain-34612
The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/11/24/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-119/
A government research paper scuppers Abbott, Mesma and Robb over the Great Barrier Reef.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/government-research-paper-sinks-julie-bishops-reef-attack-on-obama,7121
Hugh White suggests Abbott is clueless when it comes to handling the US and China.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/abbott-clueless-on-how-to-handle-us-and-china-20141124-11sko3.html
David Murray gives the big banks some sound advice – concentrate on human systems rather than technological systems.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/public-still-doesnt-trust-the-banks-says-david-murray-20141124-11ssba.html
NSW voters put health and education way on tops as issues important to them.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/health-and-hospitals-top-list-of-issues-that-will-influence-voters-20141124-11sl7f.html
Jonathan Holmes examines Mark Scott’s two hats.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/mark-scotts-two-hats-make-trouble-for-abc-20141124-11ssie.html
At least Quentin Dempster says it as it is!
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/political-bastardry-and-nincompoops-consign-abc-to-churnalism-20141124-11svir.html
Section 2 . . .
And so does Van Badham!
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/24/abc-cuts-had-abbott-been-honest-about-his-true-agenda-he-would-have-been-unelectable
This is how the cuts will affect the ABC. It stinks.
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/four-corners-australian-story-foreign-correspondent-to-lose-resources-in-abc-budget-cuts-20141124-11svkm.html
And The Adelaide Advertiser is all up in arms (sort of) with the ABC cuts in SA.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/abcs-south-australian-cutbacks-and-job-losses-condemned/story-fni6uo1m-1227133583050
So it was all the Hobart Mercury’s fault that this elite Anglican school did not apologise for sexual abuse.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/24/abuse-inquiry-told-boys-school-did-not-apologise-because-of-hobart-mercury
Freya Newman to appear for sentencing today.
https://newmatilda.com/2014/11/24/freya-newman-appear-sentencing-sydney-tuesday-morning
Stand by to see the US at its ‘best”.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/ferguson-prosecutor-to-make-statement-on-michael-brown-shooting-case-us-media-20141124-11t2p3.html
Adele Ferguson looks at BHP’s big makeover.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/bhp-billiton-digs-deep-as-tough-times-get-tougher-20141124-11slpw.html
View from the Street.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-lambie-and-pup-a-love-too-hot-to-last-20141124-11svyt.html
Section 3 . . .
Cathy Wilcox nails it.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
And boy! So does Alan Moir.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
David Pope sums up yesterday very well.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
Wonderful work from David Rowe on the ABC cuts.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Ron Tandberg explains our philanthropy.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
BK
[At least Quentin Dempster says it as it is!]
He’ll be ‘surplus to requirements.
Morning bludgers
The big news in Melbourne is an apartment fire in the Docklands. Fortunately no one injured
Good Morning
Election winning policy
@Simon_Cullen: A statement from Bill Shorten’s spokesman on ABC funding: http://t.co/EDOylpxUYx
Ha bloody ha to the National party pet rocks. What are they going to do ? Cut their funds ?
[THE ABC faces a backlash from rural MPs angry that the broadcaster has sacrificed regional operations in favour of a digital strategy]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/broadcast/abc-facing-regional-backlash/story-fna045gd-1227133620317
poroti
This is the height of irony.
Or woolly-headedness. Pet rocks is too kind.
Good morning all.
Please excuse me if this has already been mentioned but there was a Galaxy Poll in the Courier Mail on Saturday on Federal voting intentions in Queensland that seems to have been completely overlooked.
Results are very interesting.
TPP
Labor 52 (+4) Coalition 48 (-4)compared to May poll.
Primary votes
labor 39(+6)
coalition 38(=3)
Who bets understands issues important to Queenslanders
Shorten 44(+3)
Abbott 36 (-2)
As mentioned above please excuse me if this has already been reported.
It was easy to miss as it was hidden away on page three under a headline about the collapse in support for the PUP.
Very poor result for Abbott given the G20 had just wrapped up.
Have a great day all.
[Ha bloody ha to the National party pet rocks. What are they going to do ? Cut their funds ?]
Macca delenda est.
I noticed in Mark Kenny’s article he is still calling the Gillard government “illegitimate”.
When will he name the Coalition government dysfunctional, for balance.
Thanks doyley
Very interesting
The only sentencing issue for Freya Newman is whether she will have a conviction recorded or not.
“@danielhurstbne: “The gate’s closed .. it’s a done deal” – Ciobo on Sky re ADF pay”
Thats gong to cost the LNP
[I noticed in Mark Kenny’s article he is still calling the Gillard government “illegitimate”.
When will he name the Coalition government dysfunctional, for balance]
One of the joys of working for privately-owned media is you don’t have to be balanced.
In any sense of the word…
It’s not a three-word mantra, so it won’t be accepted, but perhaps Labor could use “working for a fairer Australia”.
The vic state election is now at the business end, and the coalition together with the Herald Sun are ramping up their attacks on Andrews and Labor.
The latest morgan poll shows a shift back to the coalition
Johnston told the ADF that they would be ‘better off’, not worst off, with 4.5%
In nominal terms this is correct.
In real terms, every single member of the ADF’s pay is going to go backwards.
In real terms, they will all be worse off because the 1.5% per annum is less than the rate of inflation.
Most of them understand that and most of them understand that Johnston is dudding them and insulting their intelligence at the same time.
Yet another example of an Abbott Government Minister treating Australians like they are stupids.
What are the Nats whinging about?
With their FTTH NBN they will be able to get live-streaming at the speed of light and everything will be hunkey dorey.
The ‘Arab Spring’ has turned out really well – Syria/Iraq,etc.
And one that doesn’t make the Western Press – an old favorite:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/11/unidentified-jet-strikes-libya-airport-20141124163026663819.html
The ‘unidentified’ bit is only the question of whether it was an Egyptian or UAE F-16.
I decided to watch the Drum last nignt as JHewson and NRees together wi th Lenore Taylor were guests. Thought it was worthwhile
http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/drum/NU1405H226S00
Boerwar
[Yet another example of an Abbott Government Minister treating Australians like they are stupids.]
Bernard Keane on the same theme.
[Keane: the black and white world of Abbott’s spinning
……………….Both examples reflect a persistent theme in the government’s communications: a defensive insistence that something that is demonstrably true in fact isn’t, that voters are wrong, or confused, if they believe something that differs from the government’s narrative. The ABC isn’t being cut, the Great Barrier Reef is in no danger, the Budget was fair, tax increases are not tax increases, deregulating will just lead to more competition not higher university fees, Direct Action will reduce carbon emissions. The government’s communication strategy is always “no, you’re wrong. You’re just wrong” — an approach that as any PR specialist will explain, doesn’t normally work too well.]
http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/11/24/keane-the-black-and-white-world-of-abbotts-spinning/
Can anyone please tell me if the Wednesday electronic blackout still applies for Victorian elections?
CTar1
[The ‘unidentified’ bit is only the question of whether it was an Egyptian or UAE F-16.]
No mystery the UAE stands for the Unidentified Aircraft Enclosure.
CTaR1
Yeah.
They jumped straight from Spring to the Arab Bloody Hot Summer.