ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

ReachTEL turns in a result that is nicely in line with the overall trend, and finds Palmer United coming down hard.

The latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll of federal voting intention for the Seven Network ticks a point in Labor’s favour, putting their two-party lead bang on BludgerTrack at 53-47. The biggest mover on the primary vote is Palmer United, who have slumped from 5.1% to 3.1%, with Labor up 1.2% to 38.7%, the Coalition up 0.1% to 40.2% and the Greens down 0.4% to 11.1%. Also featured are leadership ratings and attitudinal results on the G20 and, entertainingly, whether Jacqui Lambie should leave the Palmer United Party (43.4% yes, 17.6% no).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,783 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-21/ukip-gains-second-commons-seat-with-victory-in-rochester.html

    [The U.K. Independence Party dealt a new blow to Prime Minister David Cameron as it won a second seat in Parliament from his Conservatives in six weeks.

    Mark Reckless, who defected to UKIP from the Tories in September and then forced a special election in his seat of Rochester & Strood, 30 miles (50 kilometers) southeast of London, was returned to the House of Commons with 16,867 votes. Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst came second with 13,947 votes.

    “The radical tradition which has stood and spoken for the working class has found a new home in UKIP”…]

  3. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/poll-roundup-g20-no-help-to-government.html
    Poll Roundup: G20 No Help To Government

    has been updated with comments on ReachTEL, which made no difference to my aggregate whatsoever (still 53.1, identical to BludgerTrack this week).

    I did a Radio National interview re Lambie this morning which can be found at http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/will-lambie-defect-from-palmers-party/5908234 ‘Scuse any random incoherence, it was about 3 hours before I would normally get up.

  4. Clive is looking stuffed (no pun intended).

    Its all falling apart under 5 months of the new Senate.

    The PUP’s in the senate don’t need him anymore and he is looking a much diminished ‘king maker’.

    Get on with your life Palmer while you can.

  6. [ How soon people have forgotten her performance as Shadow Treasurer. I also wonder how much of what we’re hearing about her performance in the FA portfolio is really PR from her department and staffers and self promotion? ]

    I’d be interested to know Bishops legislative record? I may be wrong, but as far as i know, she has NEVER had to craft legislation and try to get it through parliament. Which really makes me wonder why on earth anyone would think she has anything like the skill set to be leader of a party?

    Putting aside what a revolting person she is, when has she actually demonstrated any kind of competence in any matter not party political?? You know, competence in terms of actually governing??

  9. Mmmm – Conduct of lawyers seems to be all the go at Royal Commissions – this should be interesting –

    [ Ms Bishop, a solicitor from the firm Robinson Cox, later Clayton Utz, founded CSR’s legal fortification the “four dog defence” to stonewall valid claims.

    That was used when your dog killed a neighbour’s child to death.

    In court, the first line of defence was that you never owned a dog or it was always tied up.

    The next line of defence was denying you knew the dog was savage.

    Failing that, the child provoked the dog and finally, the child died of something else.

    “The first dog deployed by CSR’s solicitor was to find every basis imaginable to reject compensation brought by the dying victims,” he said.

    Senator Sterle said Ms Bishop played a key role in CSR moves to deny compensation to dying victims, forcing them to go to trial]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/breaking-news/bishops-lawyer-work-a-source-of-shame/story-e6freono-1226525303554?sv=9368a660b3eee244be640dfa7036da44#.ULS7lKeBn5E.twitter

  11. [Memories of the World’s Greatest Shadow Treasurer:

    Weekend reports suggested Ms Bishop would be forced to stand aside or risk being ousted as deputy leader in a party room spill.

    Seen as a sin by her party detractors, and mercilessly exploited by the Government, is her recent quote in which she allegedly advised the Government to “wait and see” how bad the economy became before acting.

    She actually said the Government should bring in a small stimulus package first and “wait and see” how it worked before acting further.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/bishops-move-she-may-go-or-be-pushed-20090214-87md.html#ixzz23bgNt12D

  12. As the days, weeks & months roll by I can’t see Abbott digging the government out of this slump.

    As so many here have in said in trepidation, whats next?

  13. mike,

    As I said before, I’m now willing to consider the possibility of a one term government, but all I can say about the polls is lets see how they handle the next May budget.

  14. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-20/asia-pacific-s-richest-woman-buys-iron-as-bhp-sees-end-of-era.html

    [Gina Rinehart, the Asia-Pacific’s richest woman, is set to start exports in September from her new A$10 billion ($8.6 billion) iron ore mine undeterred by prices trading near five-year lows and forecast to extend losses.

    “We don’t like the ore price going down, but we’re in the lower quartile” of production costs, Rinehart, chairman of Hancock Prospecting Pty, said yesterday in an interview at the Roy Hill mine in Australia’s iron-rich Pilbara region.

    She was talking just hours after Andrew Mackenzie, chief executive officer of BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), called an end to the era of “massive expansions of iron ore.” BHP and rivals Rio Tinto Group (RIO) and Vale SA (VALE5) are flooding the global market, spurring a surplus after a $120 billion spending spree to boost the capacity of their mines from Australia to Brazil.]

  15. dave

    I knew some people I’m the media in Perth in the late 70s when the first of the asbestos cases from wittenoom started to hit the courts.

    They told some hair raising stories of the tactics used by the company and its lawyers.

    The legal profession really does stoop pretty low at times.

  16. From previous thread:

    [835
    confessions

    Tim Dunlop with a good read about the erosion of party authority, referenced against Bolt’s to do list for the Abbott govt from the other day.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-21/dunlop-abbotts-problems-go-deeper-than-bolt-realises/5908856 ]

    Thanks for that.

    Always liked Dunlop’s work, but that is a particularly good effort, with a lot of thoughtful comments on it, which is encouraging.

    [863
    dave

    >But I’m not sure he would have bothered if O’Brien’s style had been more adversarial.

    What a laugh – Those interviews were full of aggression – open aggression.]

    Was certainly no love lost between Howard and O’Brien.

  18. cud

    I haven’t seen any sign yet that the government can manage the economy & that’s without taking into consideration the perceived ‘fairness’ of their last budget.

    Your right though, I’m not counting chickens yet but there sure are are a lot of juicy looking eggs ready to hatch.

  20. Jacquie Lambie’s United Party of One does have an interesting ring to it…

    6 years is a long term when you think about it…

  23. http://insidestory.org.au/tiger-by-the-tail

    To balance a bit some of the recent bagging of the PUP for having picked up Senator Lambie, here is a very interesting article by Norman Abjorensen, on the changing character of the Liberal Party, and the increasing role of people using it to get something for themselves, rather than to contribute to the country. (Also sadly true of the ALP in recent years in NSW.) The reference to Sir John Carrick is especially interesting: another person who held Senator Carrick in the highest regard was Senator Robert Ray.

    Looking at the LNP, the spiv count has been pretty high lately, taking the NSW, VIC and QLD state parliaments as a whole. It’s hard to imagine that these types would have had much of a future in the Menzies era.

  24. [That Bishop asbestos stuff is interesting.]

    All part of the continuing Liberal hypocrisy as in Gillard had no ethics as a lawyer.

  25. [Back in October 2007, when Tony Abbott was Health Minister, he denied asbestos disease sufferers access to subsidised medicine for their illness.

    Naturally, the asbestos disease sufferers were not happy with the decision. And they organised a petition, imploring Abbott to place the costly drug, Alimta, on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Some 17,000 people signed it.

    It was arranged that it would be delivered to Abbott’s Sydney office by Bernie Banton, 61, who was suffering terminal mesothelioma. But when Banton showed up, in his wheelchair, with his oxygen tube, trailed by media, Abbott had done a bunk.

    Banton was devastated and told the media so. He said Abbott had known he was coming. He called the then-Health Minister, now-Opposition Leader and probable future Prime Minister a “gutless creep” and a “disgraceful human being”.]

    Let me add sniveling grub.

    http://powerhouse.theglobalmail.org/dust-settles-on-the-low-moral-ground/

  27. Mark Newton posted the following link to Twitter with the comment that:

    Just because Brandis extends the #turc deadlines and gives more funding, doesn’t mean Heydon needs to use all of it.

    http://www.etunational.asn.au/news-media?id=66

    MEDIA RELEASE: Friday 21st November 2014

    Attorney-General’s admission confirms Trade Union Royal Commission a political witch-hunt

    Attorney-General George Brandis has confirmed an extension to the length and funding of the Trade Union Royal Commission was not based on legal requests, but a decision of the Abbott Government.

    In a startling admission during a Senate Estimates hearing last night, Senator Brandis was asked why the Government had extended the reporting time, terms of reference and funding in October, despite Royal Commissioner Dyson Heydon not requesting it.

    The Attorney-General provided the startlingly honest answer that: “the government made the decision to extend the Royal Commission.”

    The Electrical Trades Union said the statement confirmed the worst fears of the union movement that Prime Minister Tony Abbott was wasting tens of millions of dollars in taxpayer money to prosecute an ideological agenda.

    The union said the Federal Government needed to come clean about why they had made that decision, especially as Commissioner Heydon had written to the government saying he was not applying to widen the terms of reference or extend the reporting date.

    “This is a startling admission from one of the most senior members of the Abbott Government,” ETU national secretary Allen Hicks said.

    “Senator Brandis has effectively confirmed that this Royal Commission is not being driven by the law, but by the political agenda of his government and their ideological hatred for trade unions.

    “Despite devoting nearly a year, and more than $50 million dollars to the task, the Royal Commission has done little more than rehash decades old smears and provide a soap-box for people with personal vendettas.

    “It is a shameless misuse of the Royal Commission process and an abuse of political office.”
    Mr Hicks said it came as a stark contrast to the government response to the findings of the Senate Economics References Committee that a Royal Commission into the Commonwealth Bank was warranted.

    “The Senate committee uncovered allegations that Commonwealth Bank financial advisors had engaged in forgery, dishonest concealment of material facts, and other misconduct that resulted in investors losing millions of dollars, yet the Abbott Government refused to act,” Mr Hicks said.

    “It is increasingly undeniable that unions are being singled out for special treatment by a conservative government more interested in grinding axes than protecting consumers.”

  29. I’ll believe the Libs are in trouble when the line starts moving at the bookies. As long as the sharks are backing the govt., polls don’t mean much.

    Which isn’t to say I’m not enjoying the hell out of Abbott squirming. Shame it’s Australia that has the pay for it.

  31. [29
    teh_drewski

    I’ll believe the Libs are in trouble when the line starts moving at the bookies. As long as the sharks are backing the govt., polls don’t mean much.]

    iirc, William (or perhaps another) recently posted analysis showing that betting markets were no more accurate than opinion polls at predicting elections, and, often, were not as good. On the face of it, why would betting markets be more reliable than polls?

  33. rossmcg @ only some members of it, just like any other profession.

    Most who contend otherwise have an axe to grind based on anecdotal scenarios, usually pertaining to a lost action.

    When clients win, it is always due to the righteousness of their cause.

    When they lose, it is always because they had a lousy lawyer.

  38. briefly – depends what you read, I suppose.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ddc1126-5a02-11df-acdc-00144feab49a.html#axzz3JhqE9gvs

    I don’t really have a good explanation for why betting markets are at least as good, and often superior, to polls (both, of course, beating pundits by the length of the finishing straight) but all the analysis I have read seems to indicate that it is true. I could postulate theories, of course, but I’d be shooting blanks.

  39. A little bit of PB prescience from last year.

    [ Tricot
    Posted Monday, November 25, 2013 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    While the new Nielsen gives some encouragement to Labor (and the Greens it must be said) and while one might treat the current numbers a bit like a Chinese meal – filling but short-lived, the portents have been there for awhile.

    This new government and its leader have never been popular, in the sense that a whole lot of exciting, new and interesting policies were never put on the table to secure a better deal for the electorate.

    All we had was 5 vague and non-elaborated general policies – which would kind of be fulfilled in the next three years or so. Added to this was the fact that the a majority in the electorate wanted to get back to set and forget as far as Federal politics is concerned.

    So, an unpopular LOTO leading a party which looked no further than just getting into power at all costs, was not much of a base to start from.

    Knowing this the conservatives have tried very hard to just shut the doors and say nothing while pretending they are “flat our working” when it fact, all they have done is continue with an extension of their approach in opposition.

    The bitter pill for Abbott and the conservatives is that the Oz electorate – or at least 53% of them (with about 3-4% of this lot making the difference) held their noses to vote out Labor and put Abbott in.

    Apart from making a very poor start on a number of fronts, the reality is that Abbott has never been respected or liked and unless he pulls up his socks he will be a one termer.

    The fact that the conservative press have been furiously talking about how Abbott now appears to be more “statesmanlike” says it all, while the shameless use of his daughters during the election campaign to curry favour with female voters was equally as hollow.

    The irony is that in his first test of true statesmanship, when it comes to Indonesia, he has so far, been an abject failure

  40. http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/11/21/mexico-in-turmoil/
    The Comig collapse of Mexico

    Counterpunch looks at the turmoil in Mexico over the murder by a drug gang of 43 protesting students…handed over to their murderers by the local police in a Mexican city

    Will Mexico bcame anther failed state like Somalia or Libya..a failed state on the borders of the US,just a Obama moves to give citizenship to all hispanic illegals in the US for more than 5 years

  41. [Cud chewer @ 13, I’m still waiting to see how they handle the last budget.]

    Well obviously they will eventually win hearts and minds in the Senate and get their vital reforms through and the economy will boom.

  42. From last thread, bemused quoted Lizzie

    [lizzie@804: Fran
    The fact that the reporter asked ‘are you being alarmist?’ makes me angry. And well done Brodie. I shall chase up the text version. Thanks.]

    Then continued

    [Why? That is just pre-empting what the Libs will say and giving him a chance to respond up front. Politicians and others being interviewed should welcome such questions.]

    The interviewer, Brendan Trembath, also said to Brodie

    [You mention one of the most controversial topics in the world at the moment. Of course Barack Obama has one view, Julie Bishop another. What’s the future?]

    I cringed. I’d have been tempted to respond:

    As far as I know, both Julie Bishop and Barack Obama have the same view on Climate Change. What makes you feel it’s controversial?

    It sounds like trolling to me, bemused. Trembath is no cadet reporter.

  43. [Counterpunch looks at the turmoil in Mexico over the murder by a drug gang of 43 protesting students]

    And no mention of murderess Islamic death cults so no need for big tough Tony to have a say in it.

  44. It was quite interesting watching Sheridan frothing at the mouth about Obama on lateline. Obama has well and truly hit the pain button on the oz conservatives.

  45. Fran Barlow@42

    From last thread, bemused quoted Lizzie

    lizzie@804: Fran
    The fact that the reporter asked ‘are you being alarmist?’ makes me angry. And well done Brodie. I shall chase up the text version. Thanks.


    Then continued

    Why? That is just pre-empting what the Libs will say and giving him a chance to respond up front. Politicians and others being interviewed should welcome such questions.


    The interviewer, Brendan Trembath, also said to Brodie

    You mention one of the most controversial topics in the world at the moment. Of course Barack Obama has one view, Julie Bishop another. What’s the future?


    I cringed. I’d have been tempted to respond:

    As far as I know, both Julie Bishop and Barack Obama have the same view on Climate Change. What makes you feel it’s controversial?

    It sounds like trolling to me, bemused. Trembath is no cadet reporter.

    Call it trolling or whatever you like.

    Any competent media performer should be able to hit it for six.

  46. [ Bishop was Education minister late in Howard’s reign ]

    Yes, working at a Uni i followed her tenure in that slot with interest. As far as i remember she did nothing but continue the previous ministers policies and did nothing herself.

  47. bemused

    [Any competent media performer should be able to hit it for six.]

    My point is that he shouldn’t have to. Brodie did very well, as I said, but this simply underlines the dreadful state of News & Current Affairs at the ABC.

  48. cud chewer@44

    It was quite interesting watching Sheridan frothing at the mouth about Obama on lateline. Obama has well and truly hit the pain button on the oz conservatives.

    Yeah, I was having a good laugh at Sheridan too as he frantically polished the Abbott turd and said Obama was the one in trouble.

    His funniest line was WTTE that “Abbott was a really smart guy, Rhodes Scholar and all”. ROFLMAO

    And he managed to keep a straight face as he said it.

  49. Fran Barlow@47

    bemused

    Any competent media performer should be able to hit it for six.


    My point is that he shouldn’t have to. Brodie did very well, as I said, but this simply underlines the dreadful state of News & Current Affairs at the ABC.

    Your point is rubbish.

  50. If people question why drugs should be legal the best answer is Mexico.

    None of the horror that has happened in Mexico could have happened without drug prohibition.

    Some of those cartels have their own communications infrastructure throughout Mexico and SW USA. They could probably build their own NBN if they saw the need.

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