The latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll of federal voting intention for the Seven Network ticks a point in Labor’s favour, putting their two-party lead bang on BludgerTrack at 53-47. The biggest mover on the primary vote is Palmer United, who have slumped from 5.1% to 3.1%, with Labor up 1.2% to 38.7%, the Coalition up 0.1% to 40.2% and the Greens down 0.4% to 11.1%. Also featured are leadership ratings and attitudinal results on the G20 and, entertainingly, whether Jacqui Lambie should leave the Palmer United Party (43.4% yes, 17.6% no).
Betting markets are not always right. On election eve in Victorian Election in 2010 the Coalition were still paying $4.75 for the win. And the previous WA election had told a similar story – Labor were favourites in the betting market but lost.
The most spectacular recent fail I can remember was Intrade (remember them) had the US Supreme Court at prohibitive odds-on to throw out the aspects of Obamacare they were asked to rule on. And the Supreme Court upheld all of them.
Goodnight all.
cc – “Obama has well and truly hit the pain button on the oz conservatives.”
It is so funny! They say “He has no real power” – if they understood the US Constitution they would realise he has pretty much the same power he had on day one. The President has great authority but can’t pass legislation by himself.
And of course in the USA their Fox counterparts are positively frothing at the mouth – forgetting of course that their great hero Reagan (and GH Bush) took executive action on immigration.
But the “Australian” writers who are in agony about Obama – how would they ever cope with Hillary in the White House?
Rocket Rocket Posted Saturday, November 22, 2014 at 12:41 am @ 53
That’s nothing. Imagine if Michelle Obama was POTUS.
Rocket – no, they’re not. Nothing is “always right” when it comes to predictions, and certainly not betting markets, else there would be no point offering them.
They tend to perform more or less poorly depending on the outcome being measured. There is typically less data (ie. money) available in a state election, so they are less powerful predictively. And the Supreme Court one you cite isn’t really relevant, as it’s not an election, and given the outcome is entirely the result of the opinion of 9 people, presumably none of whom are exercising insider knowledge to gamble, there is very little predictive power involved.
I’d be curious to know what Betfair had for the Victorian election in 2010 – I don’t even remember if it was running – but certainly the “smart money” got it very, very wrong. Although the punter who put $4,000 in the Libs at 5.00 in February must have been pretty pleased with him or herself.
bc
Link to the Chaney interview you mentioned earlier:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-21/fred-chaney-says-indigenous-community-closures/5910992
[Rocket – no, they’re not. Nothing is “always right” when it comes to predictions, and certainly not betting markets, else there would be no point offering them.]
Quite so. Let’s say that at election after election after election (ad infinitum), the betting markets keep offering $1.33 on Labor and $4 on the Coalition (leaving aside that this doesn’t factor in a profit margin). And let’s say that at election after election after election (ad infinitum), Labor does indeed win. This would not be the “betting markets getting it right”. The $4 being offered on the Coalition implies a 25% chance of victory, so they should in fact be winning a quarter of the time.
The Melbourne Cup should be factored in to election betting, even if it’s just to keep betting in the news
On matters NBN: One week, two corporate plans, three strained NBN Co execs
WHO has published another EVD situation report, showing the number of reported cases still continues to increase.
In the three countries with widespread and intense transmission, the data for the latest two days shows an increase in cases from 15113 to 15319, a total of 206 new cases, including 76 in Guinea (1.9%/day transmission); 13 in Liberia (0.1%/day); and 117 in Sierra Leone (0.95%/day).
I wonder what’s occurring with Australia’s deployment of aid to SL.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2014/08/infographic-deadly-ebola-epidemic-west-africa-20148248162913356.html
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Michael Gordon – A tale of two Tonys.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/a-tale-of-two-tonys-20141121-11r7rp.html
Phil Coorey says that the government is pushing its luck with broken pledges. “Stop treating us like turkeys” he says.
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/coalition_pushing_its_luck_on_broken_D1aSB57AttKcgGfr6q7pXI
And more along the same lines from Lenore Taylor. Plenty of comments after the article too.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/21/tony-abbott-keeps-digging-himself-in-deeper-and-it-makes-no-sense
Putting the ABC cuts into perspective.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/some-perspective-on-the-cuts-to-the-abc-20141121-11quz4.html
Here’s some early indication of how the cuts will affect ABC News programs, etc.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/abc-cuts-tipped-to-hit-news-services-including-730-and-lateline-20141121-11rj92.html
This SMH editorial is concerned that the cuts will affect the ABC’s editorial independence.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/malcolm-turnbulls-abc-cuts-and-the-threat-to-editorial-independence-20141121-11qc6w.html
FoFA is going to be hurting the government for quite some time by the look of it.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/fofa-doesnt-clean-up-the-financial-advice-minefield-20141121-11riwk.html
A fascinating story from Sophie Morris on how the FoFA regulation changes were disallowed.
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/11/22/labor-rallies-crossbench-senators-over-fofa-reforms/14165748001275#.VG-XD_mUeSo
The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/11/21/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-116/
Dean Jones looks at Australia’s chances in the imminent Test Series against India.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/sport/cricket/warning-signs-for-australian-team-ahead-of-series-against-inform-indians-20141121-11qcwz.html
Section 2 . . .
The UN fingers Australia as one of the few nations that will fail on emissions reduction.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/21/australia-one-of-four-nations-forecast-to-miss-2020-emissions-target
John Birmingham’s roundup of the week’s events.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/satire-died-and-your-abc-isnt-too-chipper-20141120-11qjp8.html
The internet hacking Group Anonymous metes out justice against the Ku Klux Klan.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/2014/11/21/explainer-anonymous-hackers-spotlight/
John Faulkner has his sights set on Carol Mills and the Department of Parliamentary Services.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/pressure-on-carol-mills-but-shes-still-in-the-running-for-uk-house-of-commons-clerk-job-20141121-11rao0.html
Is the fix in to save Kathy Jackson from the TURC?
http://wixxyleaks.com/just-one-fix-allegations-of-a-deal-done-with-the-royal-commission-to-vindicate-kathy-jackson/
The strange lady behind the anti-hahal bullshit.
https://newmatilda.com/2014/11/21/welcome-strange-logic-kirralie-smith-anti-halal-truther
Jacqui Maley – Where to for Lambie after she tosses the yellow scarf?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/jacqui-lambie-throws-in-the-scarf-for-bigger-things-20141120-11qu1o.html
Richard Glover gives us a list of pre-emptive apologies for Christmas party behaviour. Quite funny.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/christmas-parties-prove-one-thing-tis-the-season-to-be-sorry-20141118-11oxw7.html
Hartcher with lots of words that don’t say much.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bishop-and-plibersek-mighty-duo-scale-the-tallest-structures-20141121-11rlar.html
This is hardly a good look for Napthine as election day looms.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/warning-on-regional-grants-used-to-help-denis-napthines-horseracing-partners-business-expansion-ignored-20141121-11ri9n.html
Section 3 . . .
The Parrot has another peck at Abbott.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bishop-and-plibersek-mighty-duo-scale-the-tallest-structures-20141121-11rlar.html
It took only two days for Abbott’s “conversion” on climate change to be exposed. And Julie Bishop has lost a bit of bark as a result.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/it-took-only-two-days-for-abbotts-conversion-to-climate-change-to-be-exposed-20141121-11rimq.html
Mchelle Grattan sees the Great Barrier Reef as the soft underbelly of Australia when it comes to climate change.
https://theconversation.com/government-runs-unconvincing-rearguard-defence-against-obamas-barrier-reef-intervention-34548
Experts refute Mesma’s GBR claims as defying science..
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/11/21/bishops-reef-claims-defy-science-expert/
Mike Seccombe – Paying the barons to take our coal.
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/11/22/newman-government-courts-adani-galilee-basin-coal-deal/14165748001280
How global warming is leading to extreme cold weather effects.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/there8217s-growing-evidence-that-global-warming-is-driving-crazy-winters-20141122-11rq9v.html
David Marr has an essay in The Saturday Paper on how Indigenous recognition progress is stalling.
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2014/11/22/poetic-injustice-bid-indigenous-recognition-stalls/14165748001276#.VG-WpPmUeSo
Section 4 . . .
Cathy Wilcox channels the US deep south with this one on Lambie.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
David Pope with some great imagery.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg is not happy with Abbott’s climate change steadfastness.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
Simon Letch has Abbott admiring himself in the fitting room.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/simon-letch-20090908-ffni.html
Mark Knight uses a level crossing to predict next Saturday’s electoral outcome.
The Age has called Julie Bishop a liar.
[In an interview with Fairfax Media’s Latika Bourke in New York, Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop said the Reef was “not under threat from climate change because its biggest threat is the nutrient runoffs agricultural land, the second biggest threat is natural disasters, but this has been for 200 years”.
This is disingenuous, and factually wrong.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/it-took-only-two-days-for-abbotts-conversion-to-climate-change-to-be-exposed-20141121-11rimq.html#ixzz3JjiTuRih
The hype-ing of Julie Bishop reminds me of similar stories around the wonderfulness of Julia Gillard in the months before the Rudd rolling.
Further back, the media did a similar job on Bronwyn Bishop, giving her ideas above her station.
It might be a talking dog thing – fine until the dog gets above itself and thinks it’s actually a human being.
The logic, if that is indeed an apt term here, is ludicrously flawed, Fredex.
Saying that something is not threatened by threat ‘x’ because threat ‘y’ is greater is palpably stupid. Imagine falling off a cruise ship and being comforted that because drowning was the biggest threat, exposure, exhaustion, dehydration and sharks were not threats. Arguably if you do drown, then the other things are no longer threats I suppose, but while you’re alive, if you want to stay that way, you will come up with responses to all of them.
The other part of this analogy that works is that in general terms the core threat from falling overboard is being in an environment hostile to most humans. So too, human activity has created a hostile environment for coral, and Bishop is selecting those elements of the environment that don’t offend the interests her regime subsidises. We can abate all the threats to the person who went overboard by plucking him or her from the water. We may need to give some treatment to him/her, but that is the core measure.
So too with the GBR the core measure is abating climate change and ocean acidification caused by the flux from the atmosphere to the oceans of CO2. Warming seas increase the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, and boost survival of the crown of thorns star fish. Cutting agricultural run-off, while valuable if we have a plan for the reef to survive, is moot if it doesn’t.
This is fun:
#Lambie Collider
http://twitter.com/otiose94/status/535883057023053824/photo/1
Someone commented:
Lambie chop collided with fission chips.
ABC News Radio is reporting on George Christensen’s jihad against Vegimite or, more generally, halal certification.
The ABC’s policy of ‘balance’ is paying this moron far too much respect. Idiots like him should be laughed off the national stage. He should be losing his party preselection (but of course he won’t). He provides no basis for his assertions, which malign the Muslim Community and reputable companies. What next? Donations to St Vincent de Paul support the IRA?
Unless Mr Christensen provides evidence for his accusations, Tony Abbott needs to condemn him and repudiate his campaign in no uncertain terms. Failure to do so would suggest that the Government is happy to use this as a dogwhistle.
zoomster
Bishop the Younger boosting reminds me more of the Bronnie boosting. It was never going to happen but the recipient believed the hype. What support they did have being like the morning mist when the sun comes up.
Fran
My point is that the Age has, somewhat politely but also very pointedly, called Julie Bishop a liar.
What is irritating [if that’s the right word] about this is that it would take the President of the United States about 10 seconds to confirm [if he feels the need to do so] that she, and therefore the Australian government, is lying.
He has reef experts readily available who would tell him that ‘Nah she’s talking bullshit’.
Our international diplomatic credibility just dropped several points.
morning bludgers
Thanks BK and others for today’s offerings.
Phil Coorey’s last paragraph, convey what some have said here this week
[Behaviour is as telling as polls. This week, cabinet minister and member for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, Chris Pyne, launched a petition urging the ABC’s Adelaide production house not fall victim to the funding cuts. South Australia is already seething over the loss of Holden and a broken promise on submarines.]
Pyne is a great survivor of politics. He is harder to get rid of than blackberry. So when he starts to pepper his kegs, you know the internal polling can’t be great.
I don’t understand the politics of Bishop publicly quibbling with the POTUS.
I don’t see that such posturing will impress swing voters. It may play well with the rusted-ons who want to tell that Obama fellow to shut up about climate change.
If the Australian government just pretended Obama hadn’t made his speech or the major agreement with China it would largely drop off the radar. The Australian government could quietly get on with sticking their fingers in their ears and yelling la la la. By making a song and dance about Obama’s “rudeness”, they just keep drawing attention to the president’s speech and agreement, and the Australian government’s hopelessness.
It just seems obviously dumb. Unless the Libs are worried about how solid their rusted-on support is…
JulieB made a very poor judgment call. She could have said that she understood Obama’s concerns re the GBR. Australia is also concerned, and are acting on what is best to safe the reef blah blah blah.
Instead she damages her credibility and that of the govt. She is wrong in what she has said and to top it off, she is criticising Obama for merely highlighting that the GBR is under threat due to climate change.
What a terrible own goal for a foreign minister, she is not doing diplomacy too well.
Did she forget that only a few days earlier, China and the USA made a huge commitment to climate policy?
Seriously, who does Julie think our allies are? Putin and Russia?
Safe – save
victoria
[pepper his kegs]
What does that mean ? It is a phrase I have not come across. Ta.
poroti
[pepper his kegs]
I had the same reaction.
Coorey used it.
I looked it up.
Couldn’t find anything.
poroti
I dont know what It means either. I thought Phil Coorey was implying that Pyne had to spice things up?!
victoria
The phrase even stumped the mighty Google. My guess it refers to a publican adding spice to the beer to hide the fact that what he is selling is crap.
Fredex
[He has reef experts readily available who would tell him that ‘Nah she’s talking bullshit’.]
He’d have been briefed if he didn’t know already. UNESCO had just reported. More to the point, as Jon Brodie pointed out on PM yesterday, the Australian Government’s own reports entirely affirm the thing Bishop appears to be rejecting.
Like the other members of this regime, Julie Bishop is nothing but an embarrassment.
I’m guessing Jones won’t dub her ‘Juliar 2’ ….
“pepper his kegs”
Ruin the product in order to save himself?
poroti
I think you could be on the money
lizzie
Hmmm. That sounds plausible too!
BB might be interested in this report
http://www.theage.com.au/national/flight-mh370-emirates-chief-sir-tim-clark-believes-information-is-being-concealed-20141121-11pue6.html
Fran B
Does JulieB not realise that whatever she says can be scrutinised for its veracity or otherwise?
Does she fhink we live in a bubble that can be controlled by her and the govt?
Sometimes people use the word ‘kegs’ playfully to mean ‘legs’. There is a horse called ‘pepper legs’, which I presume implies that it runs quickly.
Maybe in Victoria’s case it’s a matter of Pyne adopting a more energetic set of stunts?
It is obscure, if it exists.
Does JulieB not realise that whatever she says can be scrutinised for its veracity or otherwise?
Does she fhink we live in a bubble that can be controlled by her and the govt?
Those who get all their news from commercial talk radio and TV and the Daily Rupert will be none the wiser.
The Liberals are well on the way to insulting and upsetting some powerful players on the world stage.
– JBishop lashing out at the US President over the reef.
– Christensen lashing out at Vegemite over halal certification. Vegemite is not only an Australian icon but is also made by Mondelez, a huge international corporation. (Mondelez incorporates Kraft, Cadbury and others).
The Loon Pond is brilliant this morning, and (s)he hardly has to do anything but quote and add some commentary on today’s editorial in The Australian, like this:
Steve777
True. But Obama is popular amongst Australians. JulieB is speaking to those who already support her and the govt as well as reject obama and his administration. As far as international diplomacy goes, it is a great big fail.
This is how I understand the situation.
The Heart Foundation is among a long list of orgs who receive a divvy from each sale of “approved products”. In order to approve the logo, a committee (or similar) is set up. This is what has happened for “halal” and “kosher”.
George C has offended both Jews and Muslims through ignorance and overkill by screaming “terrorists”.
I think this lot are driven by emotion, ego and ideology, more than anything else. They are not subtle or restrained people in either thought or action, and are far less competent than they believe themselves to be.
It’s the same with everything they do. While they seem to be following some plan long ago conceived, they are blundering through it. I keep swinging between two points of view, that they have some devious plan or that they’re fools. It’s probably both. They’re fools with a plan that’s beyond their ability to execute well.
Their boosters (in the media and elsewhere) are learning that while uncritical, one sided, reporting may help them (with the electorate) in the short term by presenting a clear (but false) narrative, in the long term it means their flaws are discovered late, or worse, it convinces them of their own divinity.
A friend who never shares a critical thought with you is probably not a good friend.
One should not mistake nice poll numbers for friendship with the electorate, either. I think Abbott assumed he had the people following him with capital to spend, when he should have instead assumed he would have to work to build it.
Victoria
[Does JulieB not realise that whatever she says can be scrutinised for its veracity or otherwise?
Does she think we live in a bubble that can be controlled by her and the govt?]
Doubtful. I doubt she is that delusional, and seriously, I’d like some journalist to put that to her and seek clarification on where she was going with the claim.
Hubris can do funny things to people. Acquiring power and status is risky and can foster narcissistic conduct, which conduct does entail substantial cognitive dissonance — which is at the shallow end of the delusionals’ swimming pool.
Then again, she may just be in lawyer mode and saying this because she felt she had nothing better. Your suggested course would have been entirely preferable. That she didn’t choose it suggests the FHC and culture war spivs really do have a firm grip on the regime.
Good Morning
I have no idea of the kegs comment other it reminds me in context used as a circle the wagons kind of comment. Just spiced up.
DN
[One should not mistake nice poll numbers for friendship with the electorate, either. I think Abbott assumed he had the people following him with capital to spend, when he should have instead assumed he would have to work to build it.]
I really dislike this use of ‘capital’. A case can be made for it — i.e. the working capital or liquidity one has to operate an enterprise — staying with the metaphor, but I wish we wouldn’t. Goodwill futs much better here both in a literal as well as metaphoric sense.
Admittedly, if one looks at the etymological provenance of the word capital — and how many do that? — it is kind of fun comparing LNP voters to cattle in Ancient Rome (well their heads anyway) and imagining them being traded in a market.
Oops
[Goodwill fits much better …]
Clumsy typing …
They are also, as far as I can tell, far more concerned with form than with substance.
Fran
Goodwill is far too warm a word for Abbott.
DN
The LNP is a party in denial. The letter from Bishop to Obama proves it.
Once you start denying on one subject you can do it on many. This ideology before facts I noticed first with the Workchoices legislation.
Its just spread from there. The latest manifestation we saw of this was the Chairperson on the ABC SBS estimates demanding the cuts her government put in place not result in cuts in regional rural areas.