ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

ReachTEL turns in a result that is nicely in line with the overall trend, and finds Palmer United coming down hard.

The latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll of federal voting intention for the Seven Network ticks a point in Labor’s favour, putting their two-party lead bang on BludgerTrack at 53-47. The biggest mover on the primary vote is Palmer United, who have slumped from 5.1% to 3.1%, with Labor up 1.2% to 38.7%, the Coalition up 0.1% to 40.2% and the Greens down 0.4% to 11.1%. Also featured are leadership ratings and attitudinal results on the G20 and, entertainingly, whether Jacqui Lambie should leave the Palmer United Party (43.4% yes, 17.6% no).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,783 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. p

    Post-truth politics sort of worked for them in Opposition but it falls flat on its face when you robbing people in the real world.

  2. Morning all. This could be interesting.

    [Clive Palmer has accused Premier Colin Barnett of trying to discredit him after WA Police confirmed yesterday it was examining allegations the mining magnate-cum-MP had siphoned $12 million from his Chinese business partner to splurge on electioneering.

    A civil trial due to start in Brisbane tomorrow will examine CITIC Limited’s claim Mr Palmer had acted dishonestly when he withdrew money from a bank account in the run-up to last year’s election.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/25603600/barnett-trying-to-discredit-me-clive-palmer/

  3. Darn

    I think blackout advertising period also applies for state elections. I have to step out for a while, but i will see if i can find the rules on such matters.

    Talk later

  4. Lizzie

    [It’s not a three-word mantra, so it won’t be accepted, but perhaps Labor could use “working for a fairer Australia”.}

    Advance Australia Fairer?

  5. Darn

    Before i go, i found this online

    [The Australian Communications and Media Authority has found that the licensee of GTV, General Television Corporation Pty Ltd, breached a condition of its licence by broadcasting an election advertisement during the three day ‘blackout’ period leading up to the 2010 State election in Victoria.
    It is a condition under the Broadcasting Services Act 1992 (the Act)that commercial television licensees not broadcast an election advertisement during what is commonly known as the ‘blackout’ period. This begins at the end of the Wednesday before polling day and concludes at the close of that polling day.]

    http://mumbrella.com.au/acma-finds-victorian-election-ad-in-breach-during-blackout-41136

  6. This is so choice.

    Yesterday a previous Managing Editor of The Australian wrote in Fairfax that the ABC would never survive in a commercial world because there were so many middle-aged, Anglo, lazy time-servers there, kipping out after long lunches, leaving early for yoga classes, and counting a day where they did one thing as a success.

    There’s been a lot of this about: how the commercial media does it tough while the luvvies at the ABC waft aroubnf like free range chooks picking and choosing which work they do, when and how diligently.Why shouldn’t the ABC learn how it’s tough out there etc. etc.

    And then this from The Australian’s editorial today:

    [Not surprisingly, in an “end of empire” move, Scott has sought to entrench this redirection, by presiding over a concentration of resources in Sydney and Melbourne, coupled with a headlong rush into online and mobile services.

    This might be the way a commercial operation responds to changing business conditions and audience tastes, but the ABC was created to be a market-failure service provider, first and foremost, offering the services other outlets can’t or won’t.]

    Beautiful!

    First question the very need for an ABc. Then kibbitz on how the cuts are apportioned around the country. Then tell us that we need the ABC after all, as long as it only offers service other outlets “can’t or won’t”.

    The bootstrap is in: trash the organization. Trash its management. Demand the Board be sacked. Then go all cutesy in defending poor little Adelaide from those nasty toecutters.

    How in the hell Noel Pearson – as expressed last night on Q&A – could possibly think The Australian is “centralist” is beyond me.

  7. “@BuzzFeedOz: BREAKING: Student librarian #FreyaNewman escapes jail over Prime Ministerial scholarship scandal – given Section 10.”

  8. “@oliverlaughland: Fantastic news: RT @MaxChalmers90: This is a very good result, no jail and no conviction recorded for #freyanewman”

  9. “Reezy Miller
    @Trixie_Boo
    #FreyaNewman leaves court with a two year good behaviour bond and no conviction recorded. A good result #auspol

    9:28am · 25 Nov 2014

    Excellent outcome..

  10. Re Ajm @ 1204: maybe some variation on ‘Fair Go’: ‘a fair go for you/Australians/Australia’. That plus constantly reminding voters that they can’t believe anything that Abbott or his Government promises.

  11. [FreyaNewman escapes jail]

    She was never going to go to gaol. If there was any suggestion of that the Magistrate would have flagged it on the last occasion.

  12. It’s all very admirable to be workshopping slogans for the ‘good guys’, but surely by now we’ve learnt that:
    a) slogans are appalling ways to run any national debate, and
    b) the ALP are hopeless at utilizing slogans – it always sounds forced, rehearsed, reciting lines from central command – it only invites ridicule.

    Talk to us, don’t recite slogans at us.

  13. On Noel Pearson

    Many people praised him for his magnificent oratory at Gough’s memorial. I wasn’t one of them.

    He used exactly the same tone and slow delivery on Q&A last night. My reaction was that this man has a huge ego.

  14. [So how do you feel about Abbott & his Team reciting the same words a million times?]

    It’s noticeable lately that as soon as a Lib pollie starts spouting the usual mantra, ‘debt, deficit, blah, blah’ the talking heads on SkyNews have been cutting the pollie off and asking for a direct answer or redirecting the question to the Labor bloke.

    Gilbert did it a few times to Ciobo this morning. It’s been happening more since the last newspoll.

    Seems even the talking heads are sick of the sloganeering.

  15. lizzie
    Pearson’s delivery was perfect for a Memorial, so it was probably the best setting and occasion for that style of oratory. I was impressed with the speech, but I read that some Aboriginal people were less so.

  16. lizzie

    [Many people praised him for his magnificent oratory at Gough’s memorial. I wasn’t one of them.

    He used exactly the same tone and slow delivery on Q&A last night. My reaction was that this man has a huge ego.]

    I was one who thought the speech at the Whitlam Memorial was very good and will go down in history.

    But last night he was appalling.

    He has too many links to Abbott and Warren Mundine who in my estimation is a fraud.

    Mundine after a stint as the ALP National President is now on side of the Libs and the son in law of Gerard Henderson.

    Disgraceful!

  17. It has got to the point when I hear a Lib start using those slogans they abused my senses with during their Opposition years, I want to poke a fork in my eye.

    I swear I have PTSD from the constant barrage.

  18. guytaur

    There is almost too much to attack. Ineffably depressing.

    If the people want to stay where they are, why not leave them? I they want to move, support them.

  19. lizzie

    [He used exactly the same tone and slow delivery on Q&A last night. My reaction was that this man has a huge ego.]

    Me too. The word that springs to mind is ‘turgid’ – especially on last night’s Q&A. Pearson took forever to get to the point – and after finally arriving there, the point wasn’t worthwhile anyway.

    Pearson’s brown-nosing of Rupert was nauseating. Rupert as the champion of indigenous rights… FFS, what (or who) is Pearson smoking? Where was Pearson when the Murdoch tabloids were trashing Nova Peris with personal smear?

  20. MTBW@1621: I can appreciate your reasons for not liking a former ALP National President switching to the Libs, but surely Warren Mundine is entitled to marry whoever he wants!

  21. There is, of course, no such thing as ‘radical centralism’ for the obvious reason that it is a fundamental contradiction of terms.

    In practice it is supposed to mean Indigenous empowerment, Indigenous people running their schools and program and communities. In practice, under Abbott, Newman and Bartlett, ‘radical centralism’ means:

    (1) 150 Indigenous communities (amongst numerous others in the Northern Terriotry) being evicted and concentrated in such well known hellholes as Fitzroy Crossing and Alice Springs: de facto concentration camps which have only one ‘advantage’ in the eyes of anyone – they are ‘less expensive’.

    (2) Swinging cuts to Indigenous programs.

    (3) The currently mooted shutting down of 500 Indigenous organisations.

    (4) Changes to the definition of ‘sacred site’ in the Western Australian heritage definition such that it only applies to site where religious ceremonies are held.

    (5) Indigenous ‘advisory’ groups and Indigenous ‘leaders’ who argue that all of the above are somehow good for Indigenous people.

    IMHO there is an important policy discussion to be held around the possible closure of remote communities. There are clearly pluses and minuses. But that policy discussion has been killed off by the MSM and by the ‘Radical Centralists’ themselves.

    Mundine, his committee, Pearson, Wyatt and Giles are faced with the fundamental Quisling choice: betray the wishes of substantial sections of the communities they purport to represent, or to go along with the huge destruction currently being wrought by radical rightists who know exactly what they are about: once again depopulating remote Australia for mining and agriculture development followed by the destruction of land rights.

    Incidentally, and unsurprisingly, something not reported in Pearson’s ‘The Australian’ was the recent burning of photographs of at least one of the ‘Radical Centralists’ by Indigenous people.

    My guess is that the would not have been using the term ‘Quisling’ but that they would have been using the Aboriginal english term for the same thing: ‘coconut’.

    But that is only a guess.

  22. Re BH @1619 It’s noticeable lately that as soon as a Lib pollie starts spouting the usual mantra, ‘debt, deficit, blah, blah’ the talking heads on SkyNews have been cutting the pollie off and asking for a direct answer

    The ABC does this sometimes but nowhere near enough. Liberal politicians seem to have a script which includes ‘debt and deficit disaster’, ‘stopped the boats’, etc. etc. which they use to answer any question.

  23. meher

    Yes he is but don’t parade around and spit in the face of the membership of the ALP members who endorsed him for President of the ALP in the first place.

  24. With the plans to close down a large number of Aboriginal Communities no-one is talking about the cost of new housing in the towns like Fitzroy Crossing. Nor are they discussing the social impact. The extra police and social services that the town would require.

    This move is about vacating the land for the miners and cattle stations.

    Talking only of the “savings” and not of the costs.

  25. I find a lot of Pearson’s arguments troubling. Not being ATSI myself I generally back off from trying to argue the points he, or other indigenous leaders, makes.

    One big thing he said which aligns with something I’ve suspected myself for a while – progressive politics has no alternative answer to the neo-liberal agenda he’s proposing.

    Labor/the leftish approach revolved around self-determination for a while – ATSIC was created as the tool to put some measure of control and economic power in the hands of solely indigenous Australians.

    When ATSIC had its inevitable scandals – and I think something as ambitious as ATSIC was always going to have many teething and early governance problems and should have been given more leeway and more chances to get its act together – corruption and graft pop up like clockwork in our white anglo local governments, and we’ve been trying to get that right for a hundred years or so. And when Howard abolished ATSIC, there was nothing left. Where to go from there? Labor hasn’t, as far as I know, had a coherent plan for indigenous affairs since that time, and it showed by them meekly going along with the Intervention – they had no other solution to offer, no better plan than going along with whatever crapola the LNP had cooked up.

    “Closing the gap” (speaking of slogans) is all well and good, but it’s a system of KPIs, not a rationale for empowering indigenous Australians.

    As I said, I’m uncomfortable with much of what Pearson is advocating, but for the life of me I can’t disagree with the argument that, right now, there is no alternative plan.

  26. Boerwar:

    [There is, of course, no such thing as ‘radical centralism’ for the obvious reason that it is a fundamental contradiction of terms.]

    Yep, pure verbal diarrhoea. Typical of Pearson.

  27. BTW if we’re talking about the premier of WA it’s Colin Barnett. This Bartlett fellow seems to be getting a bit of a reputation he (whoever he is – ex Tasmanian premier? ex Australian Dems senator?) may not deserve.

  28. Re Pearson. I find a growing amount of sophistry in his speeches and writing nowadays: including his speech at Gough’s memorial service, excellent though it was in its own way.

    I think he has managed to go so far in persuading himself that the leftist, bleeding heart, shovel out the dollars to supposedly self-managing Aboriginal communities has been a failure (which it undoubtedly has been) that his best strategy is to run with the hard political right, participate in their culture war games, etc.

    But it’s hard to see where this is really going to get the Aboriginal people in general. The problems with Aboriginal communities are not predominantly either matters of politics or policy: they are a result of a clash of sentiment (ie, the desire of people to continue living on their lands) and economics (ie, there really isn’t any meaningful employment or other means of wealth creation for most people who live out there). Hence the sophistry of a lot of what Pearson says: it’s mainly about pointing out where other people get it wrong, rather than putting forward sustainable solutions.

    What Pearson himself gets out of all this is a sort of canonisation by Abbott, the Australian and others on the Right. And perhaps a bit of extra attention and assistance for his own community. Which is fair enough up to a point, the idea that Aborigines from different tribes/communities should all bind together and help each other is entirely a White man’s concept (specifically concocted by the mainly Communist Party people who got the national Aboriginal movement going after WWII). The historical evidence suggests that there has never really been a great deal of continent-wide fellow feeling among Aboriginal people.

  29. Jackol

    Pearson is still pursuing self determination. He is just now doing it through property rights instead of a governance right.

    To me it shows how Howard broke spirits with destroying ATSIC which was one of the best things Keating did as PM. Putting practical effect to his Redfern Speech.

    Howard then did the intervention to truly destroy self determination.

    I think only a treaty recognised in the constitution is going to heal the damage.

  30. Whatever is happening in Aboriginal health is working as there were some very promising improvements in life expectancy and infant mortality in the figures released last week.

  31. Rubbish words…………..

    ….”radical centralism”…”compassionate conservative”……”in context”………..”coalition of common sense”……”death cult”………….

    A bit like weeds – just get rid of one lot, and another lot just pop up

    Never stops does it?

  32. It is good news that whistleblower Freya Newman got a good behaviour bond and no conviction recorded for accessing the information about Frances Abbott’s secret scholarship. Now we need to strengthen whistleblower protection laws and include the private sector within their scope.

  33. Jackol@1635: As per my previous post, I think it’s quite unfair to conclude that – simply because the rather naive self-determination agenda hasn’t achieved anything particularly wonderful – that Pearson’s model is the only way forward.

    You have to remember that Pearson’s community is getting a lot of attention from the outside world at the moment. Any disadvantaged community that gets extra attention and assistance in any form tends to do a bit better than the rest. But this unique situation is clearly neither sustainable nor transferable.

    My hunch is that the Pearson solution is no more likely to succeed in the long term than what we might call (with deference to his esteemed relative who runs our blog) the Nugget Coombs self-determination solution.

    I tend to think that the problem of how to steer a course between the Scylla of deprivation and the Charybdis of demoralised welfare dependency in communities that have no contemporary economic reason to exist where they are located is one that is probably incapable of being solved without a major paradigm shift: to what exactly, I’m not sure.

    It’s easy for Pearson and others to be critical of what has been achieved for Aboriginal people over the past 50 or so years. It’s a very big and slow moving target. But what would have worked better? I’m not sure.

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