ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

ReachTEL turns in a result that is nicely in line with the overall trend, and finds Palmer United coming down hard.

The latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll of federal voting intention for the Seven Network ticks a point in Labor’s favour, putting their two-party lead bang on BludgerTrack at 53-47. The biggest mover on the primary vote is Palmer United, who have slumped from 5.1% to 3.1%, with Labor up 1.2% to 38.7%, the Coalition up 0.1% to 40.2% and the Greens down 0.4% to 11.1%. Also featured are leadership ratings and attitudinal results on the G20 and, entertainingly, whether Jacqui Lambie should leave the Palmer United Party (43.4% yes, 17.6% no).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,783 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Nicholas

    I’m not sure she was a whistleblower as there was no criminal, corrupt or unethical act she exposed.

    The scholarship was questionable though. Not sure that counts.

  7. ctar1

    I doubt that since he was a Democrat who left parlimaent in 2008.

    Perhaps they’re referring to the current Premier of WA whose name is BARNETT.

    Or perhaps former (fictional) POTUS Jed Bartlett is involved in Aboriginal affairs.

  8. [Posted Tuesday, November 25, 2014 at 11:25 am | PERMALINK
    Nicholas
    I’m not sure she was a whistleblower as there was no criminal, corrupt or unethical act she exposed.
    The scholarship was questionable though. Not sure that counts.]

    I agree with the outcome and don’t support a special protection. However there was unethical behaviour by the PM and it is very very important people expose that.

  10. [“Look, here I am, a white Anglo Saxon 58-year-old male, who has never been discriminated against in his life. On any matter. It’s a man’s world. And it doesn’t work. And it shouldn’t work that way,” he said.

    General Morrison said that people needed to stop asking why women in domestic violence situations do not simply leave their partners.

    “It just isn’t that easy. Women are our primary carers of our children. Women have less economic support than men,” he said.

    “Society needs to ask itself ‘why doesn’t he stop?’ Rather than ‘why is she staying?'”]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/its-a-mans-worldand-it-shouldnt-work-that-way-army-chief-david-morrison-20141125-11t8v3.html

  11. meher baba – a fair point

    And, I don’t think anyone would diverge much from this sentiment:

    But what would have worked better? I’m not sure.

  13. To switch to other topics. I have a growing sense of a bit of a swing back to Napthine that might just allow him to hang on, or at least give Andrews a bit of a Pyrrhic victory with a minority government a la Gillard federally in 2010.

    Either a win for Napthine or a close loss will be a big boost for Abbott, and kill off any leadership rumblings within his Government for now (if there actually were any rumblings: other than the J Bish puff from Miss Latika, which could have been a beatup, and Turnbull’s continuing demonstration of his total disdain for the situation in which he finds himself, the Coaltion parliamentary parties appears to be reasonably quiet, albeit somewhat dispirited).

    Like Rupert (or whoever wrote the editorial in the Australian the other day, which I strongly suspect was indeed Rupert), I tend to believe that the Abbott Government urgently needs to change tack rather dramatically, or it will be at risk of sinking. But there is really no visible sign that Abbott himself believes that his government is in trouble, or that he feels under any pressure from inside his party to change the Government’s direction.

    Of course, if my instinct is wrong and polling day in Victoria produces a substantial defeat for Napthine, the mood in Canberra is likely to change very quickly.

  14. WWP

    I don’t think Abbott or his daughter did anything unethical . She accepted a scholarship. She’s an adult and it’s not up to him whether she does that or not. What was dodgy is whether she deserved it and whether it was done just to curry favour with the PM. Any misconduct would have been by the College or whatever it was.

  16. [
    Some of us in WA find it amusing that people don’t know who Colin Barnett is.
    the Emperor would not be amused.]

    On the whole it is their good fortune!

    What a dud premier I don’t know why libs think raising taxes and cutting services is a recipe for success.

    Ellenbrook rail – just build it

  19. [
    WWP
    I don’t think Abbott or his daughter did anything unethical . She accepted a scholarship. She’s an adult and it’s not up to him whether she does that or not. What was dodgy is whether she deserved it and whether it was done just to curry favour with the PM. Any misconduct would have been by the College or whatever it was.]

    I agree that she had done nothing wrong and personally I think those who pushed this issue failed to adequately convey that she was completely above reproach. I would not be quite so quick to absolve the PM. If it was a NSW Labor politician who’d got $50k plus from a building developer through a dodgy contrivance – and the developer later got a massive free kick from said MP – I don’t think even you would be quite so forgiving. I’m not sure what the difference is besides there being no federal ICAC and nothing making it unlawful for fed MP’s to be on the take. It is incredibly unethical.

  20. A private college offered a very valuable scholarship to the offspring of a politician who would go on to attain a post in which he could decide the regulations for private colleges. The scholarship was secret and involved no evaluation of other candidates.

    A politician failed to disclose a significant pecuniary advantage to his household. Frances Abbott was part of her father’s household and financially dependent on him. The scholarship saved Tony Abbott sixty thousand dollars. He should have disclosed it on the register of MPs’ pecuniary interests in view of the fact that it was a no-compete scholarship based on a personal connection between him and the chairman of the college.

    The behaviour of both sides was unethical. The information belonged in the public domain. The law should have a whistleblower defence for situations like this in the public, private, and not-for-profit sectors.

  21. Dio,
    I acceot that Frances Abbott had no knowledge of that the scholarship was so unusual and of any connections between her father and the college. I mean, it is totally normal for gifts to be showered on the offspring of politicians and those offspring would have no idea that there are ethical considerations for gifts to the family of a Prime Minister or a LOTO.. After all, for Prime Minister Julia Gillard, the possibility she was gifted home renovations twenty years earlier by boyfriend or his mates was the subject of no less than a Royal Commission. But I agree that Frances would be blithely ignorant of such considerations, and did nothing wrong in accepting the scholarship.

    That she did not intervene with whatever power she had in the situation to drop the case against Ms Newman so everyone could get on with their lives without a permanent mark against their names is a testament to her character in whatever why people like to judge it. I know how I judge it, as is my right.

  25. It’s pleasing to see on other blog sites that I “haunt” that fewer and fewer people are believing the “debt emergency” rhetoric.

    GP Tax does not reduce debt $5.00 to the research foundation $2.00 to the GP. The fuel excise does not pay down debt, the entire $2.2 Bn raised over 4 years will be spent on more roads. The sale of Medibank will not pay down debt with the money going to build more roads. And in the meantime the Govt loses millions in revenue paid by Medibank.

    There is no debt problem, its just another lie

  26. Diogenes,
    Ms Abbott was intending to enrol at Billy Blue college when contacted and offered the scholarship on the superficial effort of bringing along her previous work. She and her parents knew this was not a competitive scholarship, but a direct initiative by the college’s head. It is insignificant in terms of the direction PM Abott is taking the country, yet a clear exploitation of his position as a member of Parliament.

    I am saddened after many years holding your expressions of ethics in high regard, due in considerable degree to your professional dedication.

  27. Frances is however, young. She has many years in her life left to need someone else to forgive her trespasses as she forgives those who trespass against her. At that time I hope she remembers Freya Newman.

  30. Why are people hell-bent on exculpating Frances Abbott?

    Frances’ access to lots of moolah in kind was not a random act of Fate.

    Neither was it a decision taken in the context of competition.

    Frances is not all that smart apparently, but then again, she is not a complete fool either.

    She knew that the deal was not transparent, publicly accountable, or competitive.

    She knew it was special.

    She must have known that they did not cut her a special deal because of any outstanding ability or any proven track record.

    So Frances must have known that she was getting a special deal because she was someone’s daughter.

    She decided to take that deal. Frances took free, unearned, course money at a time when the rest of her generation are being threatened with huge increases in course money.

    Frances took free course money at a time when the Government was deciding to shift funding into colleges just like the college that gave Frances free course money.

    If she knew it was a special deal because she was someone’s daughter, and that that someone had an obvious conflict of interest in his daughter getting a special deal, then she compromised her integrity in taking the deal. She was not a hapless bystander. She was a player. She made a decision.

    If it had happened in a third world country some reactionary ranter would have ranted about nepotism. You know, where you get other people’s stuff for nothing because of who your Dad is. Plus you get it at the expense of someone who misses out who has the wrong Dad.

    Nepotism.

    Abbott did have a conflict of interest: hundred million dollar government decisions applied.

    So, Frances decided not to pay her way. She grabbed the lolly. She went ahead and compromised her Dad in taking the deal.

    If he did nothing to stop Frances from taking the deal, then his integrity is compromised as well.

    Abbott may well have thought that he had little or no integrity left, so what’s the diff.

    Naturally, they preferred that the rest of Australia did not know about this little sweetener. Even those two must have noticed a faint whiff of eau d’corruption about it.

  32. Scotty’s removal of peoples citizenship boung to come to grief:

    [Time and again, the Security Council has stressed that whatever measures states take to deal with terrorist-related threats must comply with all their obligations under international law. Specifically, it has said that no state would be obliged to deny entry or require the departure from its territory of its own nationals or permanent residents.

    “Exile,” after all, is expressly prohibited by Article 9 of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, while Article 12(4) of the 1966 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights declares that: “No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of the right to enter his own country.]

    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/24/opinion/opinion-jihadis-stripped-of-passports/index.html?hpt=hp_mid

  33. poroti

    I await the day when some of the dudes scrape enough of the ready together to get something to go supersonic.

    Even with that thing, one difficulty is that it goes so bloody fast that it can get out of radio range very, very quickly.

    And where she then goes, nobody knows, unless of course…

  34. Re the Whitehouse ‘scholarship’: an educational institution provides the daughter of the Leader of the Opposition with gift worth $60,000. They call it a ‘scholarship’ but it’s one that is not normally offered, cannot be applied for and there is no process to examine candidates or otherwise determine who is worthy to recieve it.

    The Opposition Leader does not include this substantial gift to an immediate member of his family in his register of interests. In addition to the ‘scholarship’, the institution apperently provides a sinecure to the recipient when they graduate.

    The Opposition Leader wins last year’s election and becomes Prime Minister. His Government subsequently announces substantial changes to the Federal Government’s higher education policy that greatly benefit the institution providing the ‘scholarship’. These changes would have been regarded as ballot box poison and so were kept hidden prior to last year’s election.

    Now, it is not illegal to give or accept a gift, however valuable. I don’t know the ins and outs of the Parliamentary register of interests, but a precautionary principle would surely have indicated that Abbott should have reported it. Perhaps, like his Higher Education policy, however, or a certain bottle of wine given to a NSW Premier, he thought the voters wouldn’t understand and therefore decided it would be better not to disclose it.

    It looks dodgy as all get-out and if it had been Kevin Rudd or Julia Gillard just imagine the roars of outrage from all the usual suspects, including Abbott himself.

  36. Boerwar

    [She must have known that they did not cut her a special deal because of any outstanding ability or any proven track record.]
    Not if she inherited daddy’s “golden child” status. Besides when one is of the born to rule class being taken to the front of the queue is normal.

  39. Boerwar

    Your comments re frances Abbott are spot on. My daughter is her age and she is full aware of what her degree is costing her and how and when she is going to pay it off

  40. WWP

    [I agree that she had done nothing wrong and personally I think those who pushed this issue failed to adequately convey that she was completely above reproach.]

    Fortunately Newman’s legal team did not push this line and no doubt, wisely, they screened her from adopting it.

    If you want to surrender any chance of escaping the recording of a conviction, there is no better way than saying I am guilty but I am not really guilty.

  41. victoria

    Elder got this right.

    Latika Bourke is the leading example of a journalist who is fully replaceable with an algorithm:

    [start]
    [insert]dinkus_lbourke[/insert]

    Tony Abbott said today “[insert]*Coalition_press_release*[/insert]”.
    [end]

  43. Ferguson, Missouri – Grand Jury Decision

    A white police officer will not face charges for fatally shooting an unarmed black teenager in a case that set off violent protests and racial unrest throughout the nation, an attorney close to the case said Monday night.

  45. [She must have known that they did not cut her a special deal because of any outstanding ability or any proven track record.]

    My understanding is that she was told to NOT mention the scholarship to any of her fellow students. If that didn’t alert her to some likely skulduggery then she must be pretty thick.

  46. BW@1685: Most of the two most recent Victorian threads seem to me to be full of arguing about stuff that is not directly relevant to the question of what is likely to happen this coming Saturday.

    The best information we have is Galaxy from last week: 52-48 to Labor. More recently we have a Morgan 52-48 which it is difficult to know how to interpret: one school of thought would be that it means that the election is now “too close to call”. Personally, I will hold my breath until I see the final Newspoll or Galaxy (if there is to be another one of the latter before Saturday).

    But a narrowing as election day approaches is what I would expect. The Baillieau-Napthine Government has been something of a mess, but there is really no particular reason for anyone to feel that Labor under Andrews is truly ready to come back.

    As election day approaches, there must surely be a bit of a sense of “perhaps we should give the Libs a second chance” strengthening in the minds of some swinging voters. Whether this holds sway over the anti-Federal Lib sentiment on polling day will be interesting to see. I have long had a gut feeling it might, but, until we get some credible recent polling, I’m reserving my judgement.

  49. mtbw @ 1681
    I do think Labor need to tread carefully here.

    Rather than outright promises it would be better to speak Labor values, such as a preference for a strong, independent, well funded, high quality, public broadcaster. Rather than the simplistic “cutting is bad” they could talk about what this government’s cuts and their subsequent bagging of the ABC imply – that this government is out to destroy the ABC.

    The question of what Labor will do instead is going to come up again and again – in a way that it never came up for the Coalition in opposition. The media seem to have accepted the “budget” in crisis narrative. They will take the line that fixing it is neccessary and if Labor is opposing the Coalition’s fixes then what is their alternative solution?

    Funny that they never asked Abbott how he was going to “fix” the budget with more spending and lower/fewer taxes.

  50. mb

    Herald sun reporter tweeted this earlier. Burwood needs a swing of nearly 7% for Labor to gain the seat

    [James Campbell @J_C_Campbell
    Follow
    Four days to go & the Premier is in ….Burwood???? #vicvotes #burwoodonmymind
    10:09 AM – 25 Nov 2014
    8 RETWEETS 1 FAVORITE]

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