ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

ReachTEL turns in a result that is nicely in line with the overall trend, and finds Palmer United coming down hard.

The latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll of federal voting intention for the Seven Network ticks a point in Labor’s favour, putting their two-party lead bang on BludgerTrack at 53-47. The biggest mover on the primary vote is Palmer United, who have slumped from 5.1% to 3.1%, with Labor up 1.2% to 38.7%, the Coalition up 0.1% to 40.2% and the Greens down 0.4% to 11.1%. Also featured are leadership ratings and attitudinal results on the G20 and, entertainingly, whether Jacqui Lambie should leave the Palmer United Party (43.4% yes, 17.6% no).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,783 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. [ It is insignificant in terms of the direction PM Abott is taking the country, yet a clear exploitation of his position as a member of Parliament. ]

    Absolutely agree.

    Behaviour like this is equivalent to Abbott being handed $60k cash in a brown paper bag by a lobbyist.

    Now, when those kind of accusations are levelled at a Labor member they are hounded and the Libs spend lots of our money pursuing it. That similar accusations about Abbott are largely ignored disgusts me. Hopefully when the ALP are back in they will get Frances and her Dad up before a RC to give evidence, or maybe NSW ICAC will get around to it??

  2. [I don’t think Abbott or his daughter did anything unethical . She accepted a scholarship.]

    A Abbott not declaring the gift (which is what a non-competitive scholarship is) was unethical, especially in the context of
    a) proposing policy changes that would substantially benefit the gift-giver
    b) having been publicly lobbied by the gift-giver to implement such policies.

  3. [Your comments re frances Abbott are spot on. My daughter is her age and she is full aware of what her degree is costing her and how and when she is going to pay it off]

    Well, that’s just your fault. If your daughter had a father who was PM and had connections at the Whitehead Institute, including a mate who could concoct a secret $60K scholarship… she wouldn’t be in this predicament. Would she?

    😉

  5. [There is a Victorian thread on that very topic… that is to say the latest polling which shows that THE GAP IS CLOSING.]

    … From catastrophic to landslide.

  6. I wouldn’t say that F Abbott is beyond reproach in the matter but her wrongdoing is essentially private in character which pales into insignificance against the public nature of attempting to alter policy (or at the very least allowing the perception of such) to benefit favoured interests.

  7. [ Well, that’s just your fault. If your daughter had a father who was PM and had connections at the Whitehead Institute, including a mate who could concoct a secret $60K scholarship… she wouldn’t be in this predicament. Would she? ]

    Yah, lets pile on and do the guilty mum trip on Vic!!! 🙂

  9. Martin B

    [I wouldn’t say that F Abbott is beyond reproach in the matter but her wrongdoing is essentially private in character which pales into insignificance against the public nature of attempting to alter policy (or at the very least allowing the perception of such) to benefit favoured interests.]

    I’d say it’s the thin end of the same wedge.

  12. ruawake

    Were those people unarmed? One at least had had a knife in the Quensland situation. I cannot say they were justified or unjustified as no court process has happened yet.

    However I can say we have seen instances here where the police seem to have been too quick to use deadly force.

  13. Puff

    I think the British Police do ok. The only problem they have is when their armed response teams are called in. However at least that process seems to reduce the unarmed civilian shot situation.

  14. Oopsy. Premier Napthine is experiencing a few hiccups

    [Premier asked how many Coalition policies were submitted to treasury for costing before the 2010 election. Wouldn’t answer. (A: It’s Zero.)]

  17. I typical tweet I am seeing from US tweeters

    “@faithmight: “Make sure it never happens again.” So I need to stop being black. Or will you stop being scared of me?#FergusonDecision”

  18. 1713

    The British system of restricting guns to specialist units is good. It means that they are much better able to restrict access to guns to people sensible enough to not use them irresponsibly. Most police do not need guns.

  19. [However I can say we have seen instances here where the police seem to have been too quick to use deadly force.]

    True. But there are also instances where a police officer has died because the police were not quick enough to use deadly force.

    The recent Barbieri case in NSW is one example. A good man is dead, and two parasites are still alive – one (the killer) wielded a knife, the other a hammer.

    As a general rule, I think police are justified in NOT erring on the side of caution when it comes to deploying deadly force.

  21. [1638
    meher baba

    …the idea that Aborigines from different tribes/communities should all bind together and help each other is entirely a White man’s concept (specifically concocted by the mainly Communist Party people who got the national Aboriginal movement going after WWII). The historical evidence suggests that there has never really been a great deal of continent-wide fellow feeling among Aboriginal people.]

    White man has never really grasped how fundamental, entrenched, and critical tribalism is in the indigenous world and how hard it is to moderate. Tribal allegiance trumps just about everything, and that is not going to change anytime soon.

    Any government policy or private dealing that does not account for this is in trouble from the start.

  33. Just back from leaflet dropping. Lambie was claiming on the radio that opium growing is a Tasmanian ‘birthright’ and she will do all in her power to stop those dastardly Victorians from growing it.

  34. [ I think it is wrong that police officers have guns.]

    Puffy A young rellie of mine in Adelaide was awarded a Bravery Medal recently for not using his gun when he stepped in front of his female police partner to protect her from a bloke wielding a knife in each hand. They had been trying to arrest him.

    Policemen with guns was a real shock when we first came to NSW

  40. An extract from the Guardian: Anyone who has any doubts that Leyonjhelm is a scumbag of the first water should have a read.

    Back to the Leyonhjelm Imperial Tobacco press conference. Daniel Hurst has produced this report with an amusing exchange on the topic of smoking.

    David Leyonhjelm and Andrew Gregson have fronted the media in Canberra to raise concern about a reported increase in illicit tobacco use in Australia.

    Leyonhjelm is the Liberal Democratic Party senator who wants cigarette taxes to be reduced and says he gets “nowhere near enough” donations from the tobacco industry.

    Gregson is the head of corporate affairs at Imperial Tobacco and says the industry wants the government to “take the problem seriously and to better resource the law enforcement personnel that are combatting the illicit problem in Australia”.

    They released a report by KPMG, commissioned by the big tobacco companies, indicating the level of illicit tobacco consumption has grown from 13.5% to 14.3% of total consumption between July 2013 and June 2014 – equating to $1.2bn foregone in excise tax revenue.

    The report also pointed out that overall tobacco consumption had decreased since the last report.

    Leyonhjelm: Happy to take questions, or have a smoke, if you like.

    Q: Mr Gregson, how many people die from cigarette smoking ever year?

    Gregson: Ah, that’s a question for the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.

    Q: What do you accept?

    Gregson: We accept that there are health ramifications for adults who choose to use tobacco problems. Of course with the illicit tobacco trade those that are involved in it, the organised criminal gangs that are part of the import and distribution of it, don’t take into account the health considerations that the tobacco manufacturers do vis a vis health warnings and whether they’re selling to minors or not.”

    Q: How many deaths are caused every year?

    Gregson: I can’t answer your question.

    Q: Why not?

    Gregson: It’s an Institute of Health and Welfare question. It’s not something the tobacco companies …

    Leyonhjelm: Does it matter? Does it matter that people die from tobacco? The tobacco companies, I don’t think anybody disputes that people die from tobacco. The issue is not about smoking, the issue is whether it’s a government-created crime or a legal activity. So legal smoking [of] Mr Gregson’s company’s products is legal. If the government wanted to stop people from dying from smoking, they’d ban smoking, ok? That’s a no brainer. What we’re talking about here is which tobacco products do they buy? Do they buy the ones imported legally on which taxes are paid by Mr Gregson’s company or do they buy the ones that are imported illegally, which the only thing that is paid on them sometimes is GST, nothing else, at substantially lower cost, and without the warnings on the packet.

    Q: Does passive smoking cause health effects?

    Leyonhjelm: Of course it does.

    Q: So do you stand up for the rights of people not to be affected by passive smoking?

    Leyonhjelm: If it’s legal and you’re an adult – you’re not a child – do you want somebody else to tell you how to live your life? I don’t think so. Most people don’t. Some people chose to live like a child, but most adults don’t. If you don’t want to smoke, don’t smoke.

  42. [The now independent Tasmanian Senator has a strong message for the next Premier of Victoria, where there is a fledgling commercial industry.

    “It’s ours. It’s our birth right and it is staying there and nobody else is getting it.

    “As soon as I know who is elected after the Victorian election, I will be straight down there to talk to the Premier, whether that’s Liberal or Labor. I will be speaking to them straight away to let them know my stance on that,” she said.]

    Found the story!

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-25/victoria-tasmania-jacqui-lambie-poppies/5916222

  43. Puff

    You have comptetition

    “@vanbadham: Bronwyn Bishop appears to be wearing a necklace made of the crushed skulls of baby squirrels. #qt”

  45. I think its a bit paternalistic to say the scholarship saved Tony Abbott $60K. Who is to say Frances would not have been the one to pay the fees like a HECS debt. I’m not sure of the status of declaring scholarships to MPs family members.

    I’ll tell you what is unethical; a state treasurer who goes to a charity dinner paid for by someone else and when the table wins a prize, such as a car, and the rest of the table decide to donate the car to charity but the MP insists in getting his share in cash.

  49. [“As soon as I know who is elected after the Victorian election, I will be straight down there to talk to the Premier, whether that’s Liberal or Labor. I will be speaking to them straight away to let them know my stance on that,” she said.]

    I’m sure she will be a very high priority for them.

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