BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Not much movement in the weekly federal poll aggregate, although what little change there has been is consistent with a recent trend to Labor.

Only one new federal poll this week, that being the always reliable Essential Research, and it has made only the most negligible of differences to the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate numbers. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred is sufficient to score them an extra seat in Queensland on the seat projection. Essential also provided its once-monthly new data point for the leadership ratings, and while Bill Shorten is up a little on net approval, here too there is no real change worth writing home about.

If you’re after a meatier read than this post has been able to offer, you may enjoy my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on the apparent leftward drift in voter sentiment over the past two decades, and the absence of the growing polarisation so widely noted in the United States. I also have a rather extensive new post on developments in the Victorian election campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. [ Oh and I’m working on my political insults. ]

    Calling someone a proper Greg Hunt is pretty strong on the insult scale.

    But i think that claiming someone is Pyne like could be considered a little over the top and nasty. 🙂

  5. Had to laugh, Abbott on nine news Sydney said “it’s not unusual for Russian ships to be in Australian waters” only to be corrected by the journo that the ships are in international waters, not Australian.
    What a fool he is.

  9. I wonder if Newspoll will be polling this weekend with G20 taking place.

    Will be interesting to see if sentiment moves to backing more and effective action on climate change as a result of the US – China announcements. But it may take time. Failure to deliver on $550 pa is not biting either atm.

    Plus the whimpering failure to shirtfront Putin.

  10. If Tony wants to retrieve his international reputation and start to work on real climate action, he will have to fire the Hunt, who is probably the only one who can attempt to defend Direct Action.

    But who could he replace him with?

  13. But who could he replace him with? Maybe an empty chair or a cutout Kermit the Frog.

    Given that the Government doesn’t believe that climate change is a problem and regards the environment as something that gets in the way of business, maybe they don’t need an Environment Minister.

  16. So the madrasa-educated Kenyan-born Moslem Barrack Hussein Obama and the Communist hard man Xi have gotten together in a conspiracy to destroy the Australian economy by stopping our coal exports to China)?! No surprises there.

    Making sure that the world’s struggling masses have access to our coal in order to improve their miserable lives clearly looks more than ever as the greatest moral challenge of our times.

    There’s no need for all this blathering on about the dangers of climate change: it’s nothing that a bit of “technology” won’t fix.

    You know it makes sense. 🙂

  17. [ But who could he replace him with?

    George Christensen 😆 ]

    Absolutely. Very good choice given the context. As long as they also ensure that he is the Minister responsible for BOM. 🙂

  20. The Shirtfront Abbott Brainfart ™ is challenging the Coal is Good Abbott Brainfart ™ for what will cause him to ‘come a gutser’ to us a phrase from the past.

    Having his Murdoch minders come out in synchronised photoshopping of Putin is a clear sign IMHO that the Murdoch/Abbott hegemony has jumped the shark. Foreign policy triumph (cf Greg Sheridan 2014) has been trivialised as a cartoon.

    And Obama and the Yanks know how to do humiliation, Abbott’s Climate Change Denialism meets progressive capitalism near the tipping point. And the Chinese Comrades are playing the long game whilst being influenced daily by Beijing air pollution and a growing boom in renewable solar and wind for which the commodity manufacturing of China is made for.

    We are getting to Drover’s Dog territory.

  22. Earlier, Shellbell mocked the traitors fleeing the great state of NSW.

    I suspect he was referring to the many cricketers who can’t make the Australian side, and ply their trade afar, as most Test spots are reserved for the Blue cap. Just renewed my SCG membership and looking forward to the new crop of New South Welshmen doing Australia proud.

  25. Joe Hockey using the same phrases the Libs used before the election when talking about their policies “We have a plan” , “We have real plans for stronger growth”, blah blah blah. Soooo in other words they got nuthin’. Must be why Joe keeps needing to wipe sweat off his upper lip.

  26. The SKY News now selling the positioning of the Russian ships as them “making a habit” of this sort of thing. Well they did it twice previously

  27. For those who can’t get enough of Jaquie Lambie, this spray is posted without comment

    [In a statement addressed to cartoonist David Pope – in which she seemingly confused Pope with a reporter – she said her office thought the original phone call from a Canberra Times reporter was from an ‘idiot’ or a prank caller from a radio station.

    Senator Lambie removed the cartoon from her Facebook on Tuesday after receiving the phone call.
    “If the subject matter of the ‘fake Pope cartoon’ (striping of entitlements from veterans and defence families by Mr Abbott) weren’t so serious I’d be laughing my head off,” she wrote.

    “However, given that you’ve now accused me of altering the original Pope cartoon for my own evil political purposes, I’m now seeking advise from my solicitor.

    “After carefully examining the cartoon and reading its ‘fake’ comments, I have to admit that we’re dealing with an exceptional offender – a cartoon forger, who not only is a criminal master mind, but has uncanny powers of observations.

    “When you refer this matter to fraud squad, which I’m sure you’re about to do – as soon as your finish writing your cheap beat up – I mean serious political expose – please ask that they contact me ASAP. I’m happy to co-operate fully.

    “The perpetrator of the heinous/hilarious crime should have the book thrown at him or her and be forced to sit on a whoopee cushion and watch a continuous slide show of pictures of Mr Abbott posing with our veterans and ADF members – while listening to his Treasurer, Mr Hockey explain why we can’t afford to make a fair pay offer to our Diggers.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senator-jacqui-lambie-issues-ferocious-response-to-the-canberra-times-over-doctored-cartoon-20141112-11ks26.html#ixzz3Ivy304oU

  28. AussieAchmed

    [The SKY News now selling the positioning of the Russian ships as them “making a habit” of this sort of thing]
    Darn right they are 🙂

    [Australia–Russia relations

    …The Suvorov commanded by Captain Lazarev spent twenty-two days in New South Wales in 1814]

  29. [I wish I could give Shorten some speech lessons. He doesn’t know how to breathe effectively in order to project his voice.]

    lizzie

    The content of the speech was excellent but I need less emphasis. The Q&A was extremely solid. Bill answers well.

  31. Gee, all this gratuitous advice to Bill Shorten is hilarious. The guy has taken Labor from a smashing deficit to an ‘election winning” lead in just over twelve months. But, the PB commentariat think they know how to fix that!

  32. Diogenes,

    [BTW on PB we tend not to mention Adelaide’s serial killers out of respect for Judith Barnes, a PB who died a couple of years ago, as her son was one of the victims.]

    A convention that I am happy to comply with. Apologies if my earlier post caused upset to anyone.

  35. [
    Gee, all this gratuitous advice to Bill Shorten is hilarious. The guy has taken Labor from a smashing deficit to an ‘election winning” lead in just over twelve months. But, the PB commentariat think they know how to fix that!
    ]
    Yes there seems to be a lot of Shorten concern from people that haven’t posted for a while or before.

  36. GG

    You would have loved the look on Gerard H’s face at the end of the speech. Bill got in a few good quips against Abbott – all well deserved so Gerard was a picture of gloom. He brightened by the end of the Q&A and his thankyou to Bill was gracious.

  37. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 7:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Gee, all this gratuitous advice to Bill Shorten is hilarious. The guy has taken Labor from a smashing deficit to an ‘election winning” lead in just over twelve months. But, the PB commentariat think they know how to fix that!    ]

    That’s about my view of it too GG. I think he’s doing a great job.

    And it’s not as if he’s up against any great orator in Tony Abbott.

  38. Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 7:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Gee, all this gratuitous advice to Bill Shorten is hilarious. The guy has taken Labor from a smashing deficit to an ‘election winning” lead in just over twelve months. But, the PB commentariat think they know how to fix that!

    That’s about my view of it too GG. I think he’s doing a great job.

    And it’s not as if he’s up against any great orator in Tony Abbott.

  40. Shorten’s job is to convince people he can govern better than the Libs. Seems to be achieving that objective atm despite all his failings.

  41. frednk

    Don’t include me in that. I’m a huge Shorten fan for the way he’s calmly putting Labor back together. Try to read tonight’s speech. It’s impressive.

  46. Essendon should be suspended from the AFL for at least 5 years. If they still have funds and a will they can do a Gold Coast to restart just without the priority picks.

    It is hard to pick who is doing more to bring the alf into disrepute itself or Essendon.

    If I was a player charged with bringing the game into disrepute my defence would be ‘you are kidding right!’

  49. [Does anyone else think that the lionisation of Gail Kelly is a trifle overdone?]

    Adrian

    No, because Gail Kelly has made it possible for other women to follow. She did a great job with St George Bank initially. She was also very respectful of JG when some other high powered women weren’t.

  50. [Since Boerwar is demonstrably not very bright, it might be an idea if his moronic trolling was ignored.]

    Ah william, you have to go in harder than that to upset BW. Try saying that Russia didn’t win WW2 and that Bletchley Park did.

    And if all else fails, mention MH-370 and the fact they STILL haven’t found it, and are indeed about to declare it lost.

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