BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Not much movement in the weekly federal poll aggregate, although what little change there has been is consistent with a recent trend to Labor.

Only one new federal poll this week, that being the always reliable Essential Research, and it has made only the most negligible of differences to the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate numbers. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred is sufficient to score them an extra seat in Queensland on the seat projection. Essential also provided its once-monthly new data point for the leadership ratings, and while Bill Shorten is up a little on net approval, here too there is no real change worth writing home about.

If you’re after a meatier read than this post has been able to offer, you may enjoy my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on the apparent leftward drift in voter sentiment over the past two decades, and the absence of the growing polarisation so widely noted in the United States. I also have a rather extensive new post on developments in the Victorian election campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  3. Dan G

    I thought I heard Henderson say it would be a podcast (Sydney Institute)

    Bill Shorten often emails his speeches to members so if he does I’ll try link it for you.

  4. adrian 242 et al
    I’m not as anti Leigh Sales as many, but an interviewer who lets Hockey get the better of them like that either isn’t trying or isn’t up to it.

  8. [No, because Gail Kelly has made it possible for other women to follow. She did a great job with St George Bank initially. She was also very respectful of JG when some other high powered women weren’t.]

    Exactly — who can forget Germaine Greer’s sexists and tasteless Qanda remarks about Gillard’s physical appearance; or Gai Waterhouse’s nasty and gratuitous fashion advice; or even the late Michelle Grattan’s incessant negative ranting against her both in print and on that dire Fran Kelly radio show — or even Eva Cox in her dying days, somehow implying the Abbott Coalition was the better choice for abortion — what planet was that old dear on?!

    Good on Gail Kelly — by all reports she did an excellent job and hopefully young girls can now dream of being a successful CEO of a major Australian corporation as well as Prime Minister.

  9. William:

    [Since Boerwar is demonstrably not very bright, it might be an idea if his moronic trolling was ignored.]

    Gratuitous undeserved insult. Grow up.

  12. Totally agree with you, Darren. Gail Kelly set a great example.

    Eva Cox was a surprise. Something got under her skin for her to promote Abbott in many interviews and articles. Was she looking for a grant or something similar?

  13. Ah, the wil’o the wisp don reappears on schedule to make some gratuitous criticism of somebody.

    He’s never been known to offer an opinion about content.

    But, if there’s personal bitching to be done, don will always be around.

  14. [Totally agree with you, Darren. Gail Kelly set a great example.

    Eva Cox was a surprise. Something got under her skin for her to promote Abbott in many interviews and articles. Was she looking for a grant or something similar?]

    One wonders — recent history has already condemned her support for Abbott.

    “Feminists for Abbott” would have made us laugh as oxymoronic during the Howard Government.

  15. [Ah, the wil’o the wisp don reappears on schedule to make some gratuitous criticism of somebody.

    He’s never been known to offer an opinion about content.

    But, if there’s personal bitching to be done, don will always be around.]

    Steady on GG!

    Don does provide useful IT guidance for Crikey® Poll Bludger.

    We would never have had a preview button without his lobbying, for example.

    And William isn’t just a “somebody” — he is our esteemed moderator!

  16. That Hewson article on Abbott’s Climatenreluctance is pretty tough from someone who gave the Boy Tony his first proper job in politics.

    Hewson sounds awful pissed off.

    [There has been far too much “posturing” around “shirt-fronting”, sideline diplomatic meetings, and promised trade deals, and far too little attention to policy detail.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/abbott-mugged-by-climate-reality-20141113-11lsxx.html#ixzz3IwRMrvXp ]

  17. Commercial news = viz Yahoo News on line, has the Russian ships as a “frenzy” caused by them.

    ABC on-line – Just In – nothing mentioned about the Russians for 30 plus items back – zilch, zero, nada.

    Channel 10 – Russians ships “anchored just off the coast of Brisbane….”

    Why anyone would take anything said by the media at face value, and particularly the somewhat partisan and hysterical commercial media, is beyond my understanding.

    Interesting, Channel 10 had a pictorial of about 5 ships all heading to Brisbane – including what looked like a sub, when it looks as though there are just four of them, two of which are support ships – and no sub.

    Our commercial media is pathetic.

  18. Don does provide useful IT guidance for Crikey® Poll Bludger.

    If you need IT guidance from don, there are cheaper and better quality brothels.

    We would never have had a preview button without his lobbying, for example.

    A crime for which he has yet to be convicted.

    And William isn’t just a “somebody” — he is our esteemed moderator!

    When it comes to BW that’s steamed moderator.

  21. From The Australian front page:

    [Russian warships no surprise: Abbott
    2:31PM PETER ALFORD IN NAYPYIDAW

    TONY Abbott has played down the Russian warships near Australia but linked them to the “regrettable” surge in Russian military assertiveness.]

    Says the man who wanted to send the SAS into the Ukraine to chest up to the Russians, and had to settle for begging the Iraqis to take them, while our planes flew overhead.

    And who has, at any one time, half our bloody navy at sea off Xmas Island chasing up a few unarmed asylum seekers, under the militarily assertive name of “Operation Sovereign Borders”.

    Now THAT’S “military assertiveness”.

    Except for the bit where he cut the ADF’s pay.

  25. You can always rely on avuncular Malcolm Farr to go the full Murdoch when required.

    [IT’S a mental image hard to dispel: Vladimir Putin in an armchair, smiling menacingly while around him, assorted thugs clean their fingernails with flick knives.

    That image of President Putin as an old time gangster is the product of the Russian leader’s own geopolitical behaviour, which has all the subtlety of a horse’s head in a bed.

    http://www.news.com.au/world/vladimir-putins-military-displays-are-unstated-threats-behind-a-larger-ambition/story-fndir2ev-1227122063930 ]

    This was the bloke who told ABC Radio that Putin better watch out for Tony’s right uppercut. Seriously.

  28. [or even Eva Cox in her dying days, somehow implying the Abbott Coalition was the better choice for abortion]

    I haven’t seen any remarks by Cox on abortion as it pertains to either major party’s policy.

    My beef with her was on PPL, whereby she stated outright that the coalition policy (which btw gratuitously favours the wealthy was to be applauded), thereby implying the existing PPL scheme that a Labor govt implemented was inferior. Even though the current scheme is appropriately targetted towards the low paid and to those who do not have access to PPL through their employment.

    Cox has been somewhat silent on the issue of PPL since the election. I am not surprised.

  29. So much for intensive surveillance…

    [A GROUP of Australian foreign fighters slipped unnoticed out of the country just days ago to join the bloody Islamic State battlefields in Syria and Iraq.

    The Australian Federal Police’s counter terrorism chief told a Parliamentary committee late yesterday police were not aware of the group until after they’d left.
    …
    An AFP officer is being sent to Turkey for cases such as this, but is not yet there.

    {The AFP} has wanted to apply orders on five individuals in the past 20 months but has lacked the powers.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/aussie-fighters-slipped-dragnet-to-join-islamic-state-fight-afp-says/story-e6frfkp9-1227122294065 ]

    Didn’t stop them from mobilizing 500 police in order to arrest 15 people and seize a plastic sword.

    This is Keystone Kops stuff, surely?

  39. All this over the top stuff in the media “the Russians are hovering, just waiting to invade us” is pretty much the script of alien/Martian invasion movies.

    Just add some scary music to what Riley is saying on Ch7 news and you have a well rehearsed movie script.

    Most alien invasion movies seem to have some buffoon as earth’s spokesperson dealing with the aliens (which inevitably provokes the aliens into attacking the earthlings). That role is ably filled by you-know-who.

  40. So much for Barry Cassidy’s wishful thinking today that SleepTime was making a comeback. 44-56 ain’t good for Denis or Barry. Let’s hope Barry has similar “insiders knowledge” about Abbott’s resurgence.

  41. One media item said Abbott had instructed the military to have 24/7 surveillance on the Russians. Since any competent military would be doing this already, either Abbott thinks they need to be told to suck eggs or he has no idea how they perform their role.

    Or he has no faith in his Defence Minister.

  42. [Boerwar …U won’t find many vineyards in Adelaide ..but Willunga/McLaren Vale where I live is closest thing to wine Heaven on Earth..]

    Well after the Swan Valley and the Jura region …

  45. [One media item said Abbott had instructed the military to have 24/7 surveillance on the Russians. Since any competent military would be doing this already, either Abbott thinks they need to be told to suck eggs or he has no idea how they perform their role.]

    Or has no real interest in the military situation but likes public grandstanding

  46. If you live in the north of Adelaide you are, ordinary traffic presumed, half an hour or so from one of the world’s premier wine regions – the Barossa and Clare valleys.
    If you live in the east of Adelaide you are, same traffic, even closer to the Adelaide Hills wine region.
    If you live in the south of Adelaide McLaren Flat and friends is just around the corner and if you are as far away in Adelaide from any of these as you can get, say Port Adelaide, you can zap up to any of those [as my son does frequently] in a little over an hour.

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