EMRS: Liberal 35, Labor 28, Greens 15 in Tasmania

The first Tasmanian poll of the Liberal government’s fourth term records little change on the March election result.

Tasmanian pollster EMRS has produced its first poll of state voting intention since the March 23 election, which suggests no fundamental change. It has the Liberals on 35%, compared with 36.7% at the election; Labor on 28%, compared with 29.0%; the Greens on 15%, compared with 13.9%; and the Jacqui Lambie Network on 7%, compared with 6.7%. The first preferred premier result with Dean Winter as Labor leader has Jeremy Rockliff on 40% and Winter on 32%, which compares with 41% for Rockliff and 38% for former Labor leader Rebecca White at the last poll in February. The poll was conducted May 16 to 23 from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6 comments on “EMRS: Liberal 35, Labor 28, Greens 15 in Tasmania”

  1. While the changes are somewhat modest, it adds up to a significant change overall.

    At 63%, this is the worst result for the two majors combined since EMRS changed methodology to stop reporting an ‘undecided’ component.

    The May 2013 EMRS had 59% for the majors, but with a 30% undecided, with only 11% others compared to 37% in today’s result.

    It also represents a huge win for ‘unsure/neither’ in the PPM stakes, closing an 18 point gap vs labor to 6 points, and a 21 point gap vs liberals to 14.

    This is not a status quo result. This is the Tasmanian people blaming the two majors for being unable to do their jobs.

  2. Shifting support to the stadium didnt seem to win or lose support for Winter. But he would have been hoping for a 30.

  3. Tasmanian Labor can’t afford to rely on a “wait until it’s our turn” change in polls. As they should know well when they held government in perpetuity from 1934-1969, then after a small dose of minority Liberal government from 1969-72 got arrogant and brought about their own nadir from 1982-1998 (with only a minority 1989-92 government to make up for it).

    They need to adapt and improve. And if they don’t, then Tasmania seems more than likely to suffer a dose of Premier Eric Abetz once he gets his ducks in a row for a shift to hard-right conservatism government.

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