BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Not much movement in the weekly federal poll aggregate, although what little change there has been is consistent with a recent trend to Labor.

Only one new federal poll this week, that being the always reliable Essential Research, and it has made only the most negligible of differences to the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate numbers. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred is sufficient to score them an extra seat in Queensland on the seat projection. Essential also provided its once-monthly new data point for the leadership ratings, and while Bill Shorten is up a little on net approval, here too there is no real change worth writing home about.

If you’re after a meatier read than this post has been able to offer, you may enjoy my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on the apparent leftward drift in voter sentiment over the past two decades, and the absence of the growing polarisation so widely noted in the United States. I also have a rather extensive new post on developments in the Victorian election campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. 0600hrs …. Not much happening on the ABC News 24 reports of the China US Emissions agreement.

    Infact I would say absolutely zilchamondo. Nothing.

  3. Peter Hartcher says Tony’s under no pressure at all.

    [ But all of this is to apply to the post-Kyoto phase. The Abbott government has not yet made any commitments to this phase so is unpressured by the Sino-American announcement.

    Indeed, the environment minister, Greg Hunt, welcomed the news: “This is an unalloyed good thing. We want a good agreement in Paris.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/climate-change-cooperation-and-goodwill-are-in-the-air-20141112-11lbni.html#ixzz3It1UaQy8

  4. Good Morning

    Just caught the morning paper round up on 24. No news reported about the US China deal.

    24 is reporting on the deal in their political segment from Canberra

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Martin has a look at how the US-China CC agreement will economically shirtfront our coal industry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-chinaus-climate-change-deal-australias-coal-exports-at-risk-20141112-11lbrl.html
    The deal hands Labor a great issue to home in on. And there’s a lovely little Tandberg cartoon in it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/barack-obama-praises-historic-climate-deal-as-labor-steps-up-attack-on-coalition-20141112-11l6e1.html
    Michael Gordon says the deal piles the pressure onto Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/uschina-climate-deal-puts-pressure-on-tony-abbott-20141112-11lanj.html
    Here’s what the RET standoff could cost us.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/12/renewable-energy-target-standoff-risks-investment-freeze-and-30-power-bill-hike
    Michelle Grattan – Abbot blindsided big time by the US-China agreement.
    https://theconversation.com/abbotts-blindsided-by-us-china-climate-deal-34151
    Wayne Swan says the world is dismayed at our government’s climate change stance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/world-is-dismayed-about-australias-climate-stance-wayne-swan-20141112-11l5v2.html
    But of course the US Republicans (aka the Luddites) will oppose Obama’s pledge.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/12/us-china-climate-deal-boosts-global-talks-but-republicans-vow-to-resist
    George Bludger’s contribution makes it into this Independent Australia article on the shirtfront that never was.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-shirtfront-chronicles,7085
    Another legal slap for Morrison.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/immigration-department-broke-law-by-publishing-asylum-seekers-private-details-20141112-11kulv.html

  9. Section 2 . . .

    And it could cost us millions.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/13/asylum-seekers-could-win-millions-in-damages-over-data-breach
    The ATO is set to use the extraordinary powers given to it by Labor to pursue multinational companies’ avoided taxes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/tax-office-to-begin-using-extraordinary-powers-to-pursue-multinationals-20141112-11l47t.html
    And at the same time there is a push towards a “work to rule” campaign in the ATO.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/work-to-rule-campaign-called-for-at-australian-tax-office-but-unions-need-to-heal-rivalry-20141112-11l5cm.html
    Hockey’s Treasury attacks return to haunt him. And so they should!
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/11/13/national-affairs/hockeys-treasury-attacks-return-haunt-him
    The Independent Australia is still on Abbott’s case with respect to his citizenship.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-gem-or-a-dual-tony-abbotts-lying-ingate,7086
    Stephen Koukoulas on or moribund economy.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/consumer-sentiment-moribund-wage-growth-remains-at-record-lows.html#.VGPCWvmUeSo
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/11/12/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-108/
    Another privatisation proposal to be scared of.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/who-cares-about-the-carers-after-mike-bairds-privatisation-plan-20141112-11l01w.html
    ANZ with its complicity in the losses from individuals with Timbercorp is under continuing pressure to front up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/were-bleeding-timbercorp-victims-call-on-anz-as-writs-fly-and-debts-mount-20141112-11kxb4.html
    Adam Goodes upsets our favourite shock jocks.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/11/12/truth-hurts-shock-jock-lines-adam-goodes-over-racism-comments-british-radio

  10. Section 3 . . .

    What a beat-up from the News Ltd rags over the Russian maritime “invasion”!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/russia-sends-warships-towards-australia-before-g20-meeting-20141112-11lc4z.html
    Broken promise no, 48 – Abbott didn’t stop the boats after all.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/11/12/broken-election-promise-no-48-tony-abbott-didnt-stop-boats-after-all
    Another bit of unravelling from Lambie.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/jacqui-lambie-issues-warning-to-clive-palmer-pup-senators-20141112-11leq1.html
    This looks like a high stakes game of “pass the parcel”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mps-warned-ugly-investigation-could-destroy-reputations-of-senior-nsw-police-20141112-11ky45.html
    Will the $7 copayment, like the petrol excise increase, be introduced through the back door?
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/the-7-gp-fee-is-headed-for-defeat-in-parliament-but-federal-government-tells-medical-software-providers-to-prepare-so-doctors-can-charge-it/story-fni6ulvf-1227120914728
    It’s wigs at ten paces as the Sydney law fraternity lock horns on the old QC issue again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-barristers-battle-over-reintroduction-of-queens-counsel-title-20141112-11l81u.html
    Yes, let’s give universities even more rope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/academics-accuse-universities-of-addiction-to-international-students-and-their-cheating-20141112-11lbdi.html
    Not a good look for this big wine business.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/man-behind-yellow-tail-wines-charged-over-his-alleged-involvement-in-a-major-drug-syndicate-20141112-11l9qy.html
    It never ceases to amaze me how certain politicians refuse to rationally address the right to die with dignity.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/righttodiedoctors

  11. Section 4 . . .

    David Pope with a good one on the RET.

    A nice little Andrew Dyson cartoon of Abbott’s climate change position.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    A shirtfront souvenir from Michael Leunig.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoon/michael-leunig/20090711-dgl6.html
    Ron Tandberg examines the costings for the EastWest Link.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe on the RET position.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  14. Listened to radio (5AA) on my 1 1/2 hour morning and there has been no mention of the U.S./China climate discussion. Feel like throttling these people, yes, we have a few warships out to sea. What are you expecting to happen with them? Never fear Tony will save us!

    What stunt will OTT have post G20 to distract the populace from domestic issues and his impotent governmant?

  15. guytaur

    [

    Good Morning

    Just caught the morning paper round up on 24. No news reported about the US China deal.]
    Even mordor media Sky News reported it front and centre as soon as it happened. A Their ABC FAIL.

  16. Heard on the 3aw news overnight that Lambie has said she will back the government’s changes to RET in return for a better pay deal for our defence forces.

    Apart from unlikelihood of the government agreeing to that, if they did and Lambie gave them her vote on the RET would they be able to get the 39 votes they need? By my calculation they would at least need the votes of both Muir and Xenophon if Labor, the greens and the other two PUPS voted against the changes.

    Does anyone know what the views of Muir and Xenophon are on this matter?

  18. Re Peter Martin’s article on the US-China Climate Change deal: as far as the wider world is concerned, it doesn’t really matter if Australia withdraws from efforts to combat climate change and dismantles our renewable energy industry in order to support the coal industry. The Coal industry can keep going indefinitely of course, but to insist that it remain a key part of the foundation for our future prosperity looks like sheer folly. It now looks certain that the rest of the world will require less and less of the stuff as international efforts ramp, with or without our participation.

  19. The other question in my mind is whether our loud mouth pissant of a leader has finally jumped the shark on all this international side show he has been running. Will the fear he and Murdoch have been deliberately fanning result in people flocking to his government to save them now that the Russian war ships have arrived, or will the attitude be more like – now look what you’ve done. Might be time to shut your bloody cake hole.

    I suspect it will be the former, but then I’m sure the Australian people were not bargaining for this when they were all hairy chested over MH17 and shouting – go get em Tony.

  23. Darn

    Last night I mistakenly thought a Newspoll being discussed on Sky was a Fed rather than the Victorian one. However the Fed polls were mentioned , in particular Tones rush to foreign affairs and the rise in support. The Newspoll guy said something which sounded like he doesn’t think it will help Abbott at all in the long run. He reckoned “foreign affairs is like formaldehyde, it may stop the rot but it won’t bring something back to life.”
    Come to think of it, that comment sounds like he reckons Abbott is already a “Dead parrot”.

  24. Some factual reporting for once would help everyone

    @666canberra: Ben Roberts-Smith: I in no way defended ADF pay deal. I was misrepresented in my comments. I’m not a politician, I don’t go down those lines

  25. From Twitter 😉

    [Captain ShirtFront may have a very unpleasant future in front of him internationally now than Putin has ShipFronted him.]

  28. [The Piping Shrike @Piping_Shrike · 1h 1 hour ago
    Keating last night reminded that Australian politics is in a zombie zone at the mo. It won’t last. The outside will break through.]

    Something has to give, that’s for sure.

  30. The Wall never came down for those at the Oz, did it?; it increasingly reads like the NCC/DLP’s News Weekly from the 1970s (my dad used to get it) – this article is a classic case in point:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/lord-mayor-clover-moore-joins-greens-in-celebrating-former-communist-union-leader-jack-mundey/story-e6frgczx-1227121051642

    I hope they get as excited about anything honoring Fred Hollows or Peter Cundall.

    The Green Bans are one of the landmarks in the national and international environmental political movement – and the reason the movement is internationally known as The Greens (the name came from the bans). They were one of the first actions to link urban people to their environment, and not treat ‘nature’ as something restricted to national parks, and to use people power and unions to protect the environment and heritage. there are parts of sydney – most notably the Rocks and the botanic gardens that were saved by Jack Mundey. surely that’s worth honouring?

    But for the Oz, that’s all part of an international communist plot to form one world government through the UN and IPPC. The Oz increasingly represents tea party blogs where conspiracy theories about Climate Change, environmetalists, UN, IPPC, Agenda 21, Halaal, flouridation, S11, staged school massacres, HIV, vaccinations, etc. are linked back to Commo’s plans to take over the world – in some cases the Protocols of Zion are evoked.
    The Oz is not a million miles from this level of crazy.

  31. Reading perthnow and the associated comments, you’d think the whole Russian fleet was about to invade and attack Australia. Strike us all down with nuclear bombs and Russian troops in the streets.

    And all because Abbott said he would ‘shirtfront” Putin

  33. an upside to abbott picking a fight with Russia is that they’re unlikely to be a coalition of the unwilling at climate talks over the next year or so – now the US and China are moving, Russia, Australia, Canada and middle eastern oil states are the main hold outs. I fear the US congress and senate will work to negate Obama’s efforts. The fossil fuel industry make Big Tobacco look like underfunded amateurs when in comes to buying political influence to over-ride science and public/planetary health.

  34. You can’t keep a good hick down.

    After screaming “LOCKDOWN!” and “FERALS NOT WANTED!” for the past few weeks on the front page of the Courier-Mail, the Little Soldier, Can-Do Newman, wants to put Brisbane on the map.

    [AT LEAST eight State Government ministers have snubbed the leader of the free world, turning down invitations to witness an address Premier Campbell Newman hopes will become known as the “Brisbane Speech”.

    While both Mr Newman and Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk are understood to be attending US President Barack Obama’s address at the University of Queensland address on Saturday, a number of senior ministers have declined the chance to hear him speak.

    The Premier previously had expressed hopes the speech would be long remembered as a historic address that will put Brisbane on the map.]

    His own ministers won’t attend. No-one’s left in Brisbane. The Murdoch rag is gloating all it can about Obama being snubbed (even by publicans, somehow), and is trumpeting “FAIL” whenever it can. And then there is the Russian “fleet” coming to get them.

    This is what happens when a city becomes a one-newspaper town, especially when that newspaper is owned by Murdoch.

    The motivations for the Courier-Mail’s negativism are unclear. You’d think they’d want it to go well for Abbott and Newman. But all they’ve been so far is negative, taking pot-shots at anything and everything connected with the G20 that they can, and some they can’t, but they do it anyway.

    Perhaps they don’t like Obama anymore, perhaps it’s just a some thing from the USA headquarters of News. They definitely don’t like Putin. They hate ferals, but have gone so far over the top in heckling them that even ordinary Brisbaneites are fleeing the scene.

    Perhaps it’s simpler than that. Maybe they’re just wrecking the G20 because they can. I’m talking vandalism for the sheer joy of seeing something ruined and ridiculed.

    As I said, that’s what you get in a one-newspaper town.

  35. The perthnow comments section on the Russian “Invasion” is deteriorating into a whole lot of McHale Navy, James Bonds piss taking comments with invites to the Russian sailors to bbq’s

  36. [Lizzie
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 8:57 am | PERMALINK
    From Twitter

    Captain ShirtFront may have a very unpleasant future in front of him internationally now than Putin has ShipFronted him.]

    It’s hard to say who thought of it first but “shipfront” appears on the Telegraph front page today.

    http://dailytel.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx?code=401

    It will be interesting to see what most people believe – that the Russians are virtually invading Australia or that their presence in the area is relatively routine.

  38. There are time when the so-called ‘balance’ offered by the ABC might actually be worth something.

    The Russian Invasion – made up of two function warships, a tug and an oiler – is shown in the Just In news on ABC way down the list.

    The short piece, factual it many be, points out the Russians sent some ships with a previous Russian leader to San Francisco. I gather the Russians actually came to town.

    Meanwhile the The West newspaper (Stokes) continues his pro Coalition support dutifully falling in line with reporting the “lurking” Russian navy and an apology piece for Abbott in the editorial.

    Like Brisbane we are a one-paper town, but the influence of the West is much less than it used to be – and will continue to decline in keeping with the ever falling circulation numbers.

  42. Actually, pretty fwarking damn good week for science.

    Leaders of the worlds biggest carbon emitting economies make the strongest public acknowledgement EVER by their Governments that AGW is real and we need to do something about it.

    Yup, there will be major and serious issues with translating it to action but the acknowledgment is important. It will to some extent OPENLY polarize the debate in terms of those at a hig political level who agree with the science supported perspective and those who dont. The Denialists wont be able to equivocate on their position as they have had a tendency to do.

    And we have a probe on a COMET!!!!!!!! 10 year mission to go where no droid has gone before and its THERE!!! Staggering to think of how many things could have gone wrong and bollixed this up, and if they did, well the crew managed to work around them and now they get their data…….and probably some truly remarkable hangovers from what one would hope is the best of French wine. 🙂

    And Abbott has been made to look a complete and utter fool on the international stage just as the icing on the cake.

  44. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/?m=20141112&file=sitreps/20141112/20141112.html

    [A total of 14 098 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in six affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States of America) and two previously affected countries (Nigeria and Senegal) up to the end of 9 November. There have been 5160 reported deaths.

    There is some evidence that case incidence is no longer increasing nationally in Guinea and Liberia, but steep increases persist in Sierra Leone. A mixed picture emerges at the district level. Transmission is consistently high in Conakry and Macenta in Guinea; Montserrado in Liberia; and in the western and northern areas of Sierra Leone. Declines in incidence continue in Lofa in Liberia; and Kenema and Kailahun in Sierra Leone. Cases and deaths continue to be under-reported in this outbreak.

    In Mali, there have been 4 reported confirmed and probable cases, and 4 deaths. The most recent cases are not related to the first EVD-positive patient in Mali, who died on 24 October.]

    This compares with the last report (7/11) for eight coutries

    [There have been 13 268 reported Ebola cases in eight affected countries since the outbreak began, with 4960 reported deaths.]

    This is clearly not yet under control.

  48. According to BCassidy earlier on ABC radio, he said that the Napthine govt is gaining ground again. Although he did not refer to any polling done to suggest this. I have not seen any reporting of improvements for them being reported anywhere.

  50. [poroti
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 10:07 am | PERMALINK
    imacca

    Rosetta probe. A damn fine effort by the European Space Agency.]

    Just on that, I understand the craft is 2.5 billion kilometres from earth. At that distance, how long would it take for it’s signals to reach us.

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