BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Not much movement in the weekly federal poll aggregate, although what little change there has been is consistent with a recent trend to Labor.

Only one new federal poll this week, that being the always reliable Essential Research, and it has made only the most negligible of differences to the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate numbers. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred is sufficient to score them an extra seat in Queensland on the seat projection. Essential also provided its once-monthly new data point for the leadership ratings, and while Bill Shorten is up a little on net approval, here too there is no real change worth writing home about.

If you’re after a meatier read than this post has been able to offer, you may enjoy my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on the apparent leftward drift in voter sentiment over the past two decades, and the absence of the growing polarisation so widely noted in the United States. I also have a rather extensive new post on developments in the Victorian election campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 38
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  2. That comet landing is impressive no doubt about it. Even more so when you consider its done with left wing facts ignoring the right wing denial of science,

  3. markjs

    I would like him to have explained what has indicated an improvement for napthine. The last newspoll was 54/46 in Labor’s favour. Obviously the msm insiders know something we dont. They have not written off the Liberals here in Vic with only 16 days left until the election

  4. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 10:35 am | PERMALINK
    According to BCassidy earlier on ABC radio, he said that the Napthine govt is gaining ground again. Although he did not refer to any polling done to suggest this. I have not seen any reporting of improvements for them being reported anywhere.    ]

    I think Barrie is just repeating what he read in the Australian. The betting odds certainly don’t reflect any trend back to the Libs at the moment. Labor is $1.14 and the Libs $5.50 on Centrebet.

  5. Tony Mundine showed Abbott how to shirtfront those pesky Russians.

    Special report to PB from the Bribie WW2 bunker. All is quiet so far. No hostile ships spotted. Bunker is almost ready for action although having trouble removing all the concrete from the cannon barrel.

  7. Darn

    The probe is about half a billion kms awayso about 25 minutes. Part of what made the landing so nerve wracking for the operators. After ten years of work they could only watch and cross their fingers that all the automatic settings they had put in worked .

  8. Darn

    The probe is about half a billion kms awayso about 25 minutes. Part of what made the landing so nerve wracking for the operators. After ten years of work they could only watch and cross their fingers that all the automatic settings they had put in worked . From the pic it took coming in to land it looks pretty rough down there.
    http://i.guim.co.uk/static/w-460/h–/q-95/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/11/12/1415833752679/1aed3a82-2b67-4ae4-903d-42d298641a08-460×276.jpeg

  12. To those complaining about the ABC News 24’s coverage of the US/China emissions deal this morning (or apparent lack thereof), you’re wrong. In the 20 minutes or so that I watched from about 7am, there was a segment covering the deal and Hunt’s response.

    There was also mention of the Russian warships…

  16. davidwh

    [Special report to PB from the Bribie WW2 bunker. All is quiet so far. No hostile ships spotted. Bunker is almost ready for action although having trouble removing all the concrete from the cannon barrel.]

    Fort Denison will have to be re-activated.

  17. [52
    guytaur

    That comet landing is impressive no doubt about it. Even more so when you consider its done with left wing facts ignoring the right wing denial of science]

    The whole exercise depends on the validity of a theory about something we cannot see and which might not exist. Gravity. We might think there’s gravity, but we could be wrong. Some in the scientific community believe there is no gravity, but that instead there is the absence of lightness. This counter-theory would debunk the whole mythology of time and space and has been repressed by the “travelists” who dominate so-called particle physics. It’s quite possible the Rosetta “mission” is another sham mounted to dazzle the gullible into thinking there really is a gravitational force in the universe, indeed, that there is such a thing as a universe at all.

  18. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 11:01 am | PERMALINK
    Darn

    I obviously missed the report in the Oz]

    Vic

    William refers to it in his preamble on the updated Victorian election thread.

  23. Looks like perthnow have stopped comments on the Abbott plan to bypass the Parliament on the GP tax.

    They were on a loser with that one, not a lot of support. Totally lacking in any right wing comments other than attempts to insult the left

  24. Oh Joe you have a sense of humour. Asked about the US/China climate deal he said that “Australia and the US are pretty much on the same page”. He gave an audible gulp at the end of that sentence so even his own vocal chords were struggling not to guffaw.

  25. So Newscorp seems to be leading the fray into scaremongering about the “Russian warships threat” on what was supposed to be routine Russian Naval ships following Putin.

    Is this their attempt at keeping people off their minds of Abbott’s non-event of the “shirtfronting”?

    Also, I don’t get why the media are saying China and the US’s announcement of future emission reduction as something that “came as a surprise”. Haven’t they been in talks for a while now”? I remembered David Pope released a caricature involving Abbott on the US and China discussion global emissions.

  30. [ Just on that, I understand the craft is 2.5 billion kilometres from earth. At that distance, how long would it take for it’s signals to reach us. ]

    I think they said a 7 hour delay is involved.

  31. I read this somewhere, and not sure I have it completely accurate

    What will you tell your children when they can no longer fish the oceans?
    What will you tell your children when they can no longer farm the land?
    What will you tell your children when they can no longer drink the water?
    What will you tell your children when they can no longer breath the air?

  33. [Because the comet that Philae landed on is so far from Earth, there’s a communications delay of 28 minutes.]

    28min x 60sec x 186,000mps x 1.6m/k = 500 million km away.

    The “7 hours” was the time from separation to touchdown.

  38. My neighbour just told me with genuine alarm that there are Russian ships just off Brisbane. My guess is that his sole source of information about the world is the Daily Terror, commercial TV and probably even Alan Jones. I suspect too that he votes LNP, even though by doing so he would be voting seriously against his own interests.
    While reassuring him that we are quite safe, I couldn’t help suggesting that it might be a good idea if our illustrious PM engages his brain before opening his mouth next time.

  39. Abbtt’s climate politics are truly dead in the water.

    Reality check: he’s going to have to completely roll over,or be pushed aside.

    [This bilateral deal, along with the recent unilateral commitments of the European Union, encompasses more than half of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions and the great majority of emissions from developed countries. It now seems highly likely that most countries meeting at Paris in 2015 will bring commitments to substantial mitigation of emissions.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/13/the-us-china-deal-on-climate-change-is-this-centurys-most-significant-agreement-it-puts-g20-goals-to-shame?CMP=soc_567

  40. The latest line in the long lines in the sand by climate do nothings is to refer to ‘technology’ as the saviour.

    Hunt does it.

    Walsh did it last night.

    This morning Hockey did it.

    You know when this crew are talking bullshit about technology when they walk away from renewables.

    For them, there is only one technology that counts – ‘clean’ coal.

  45. The Russian ship thing really is a laugh.

    Have people forgotten the Cold War already?

    Remember the days when the Russian and US navy fleets used to follow each other around the oceans of the world?

    And the submarines were probably following each other too.

    Back in the early 70s the doctor at Augusta, WA, who was a keen pilot, photographed a Russian submarine some distance off Cape Leeuwin.

  46. imacca@82

    Sorry, 2,5 billion km is 138 light minutes so the one way delay is about 2hours 20 minutes.

    I wonder if this will bring advances to warfare in the form of fully automated large-scale air drones and sea fleets.

  47. So, an action in which a faster, larger, more heavily armoured, Australian warship armed with heavier guns capable of firing at longer ranges, destroys the weaker ship is described as ‘brilliant’ on the front page of today’s CT.

    The flow of jingoistic militaristic bullshit continues unabated.

    Incidentally, the Japanese warships which were part of the same convoy escort as the Australian warship had to be restrained from joining in the fun.

    I leave the ‘reasons’ to your imagination.

  48. lefty e
    [Reality check: he’s going to have to completely roll over,or be pushed aside.]
    They’re going to have to be voted out for Australia to change course.

  49. Julia Gillard’s take on Funeralgate is this:

    She was directed to a pew, where she was told her seat was, but there weren’t any vacant seats.

    Whitlam’s former driver offered her his seat, and said he’d move to the back.

    She told him not to be silly, and a bit of a polite argument (“I’ll move” “No you won’t” “It’s OK” “No, it isn’t”) eventuated.

    Finally Kevin and Jessica Rudd ‘very kindly’ pointed out there was a spare seat the other side of them, and suggested that everyone shift up a seat to allow Julia to sit down.

  50. [Special report to PB from the Bribie WW2 bunker. All is quiet so far. No hostile ships spotted. Bunker is almost ready for action although having trouble removing all the concrete from the cannon barrel.]

    davidwh

    Invite them over for a Barbie. PJK might be right – there could be a budding composer amongst them. You’d be famus!!

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