BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Not much movement in the weekly federal poll aggregate, although what little change there has been is consistent with a recent trend to Labor.

Only one new federal poll this week, that being the always reliable Essential Research, and it has made only the most negligible of differences to the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate numbers. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred is sufficient to score them an extra seat in Queensland on the seat projection. Essential also provided its once-monthly new data point for the leadership ratings, and while Bill Shorten is up a little on net approval, here too there is no real change worth writing home about.

If you’re after a meatier read than this post has been able to offer, you may enjoy my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on the apparent leftward drift in voter sentiment over the past two decades, and the absence of the growing polarisation so widely noted in the United States. I also have a rather extensive new post on developments in the Victorian election campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. [Mr Abbott also said there were plenty of forums where climate change could be discussed, but said the focus of G20 was economic reform.]

    FFS. Preparing for climate change REQUIRES economic reform.

  2. Yep no doubt Abbott and co will revert back to the “we’re only 1% of the emissions so really we are not that important”.

    If you follow that logic we’re probably only 1% of the world’s armed services yet that doesn’t stop Admiral Abbott from pushing us into military interventions around the world.

  3. Senator Lambie CoS being expelled from Pup not the end of it. Lambie has said she wants all her staff not to belong to a political party.

    So still to see if Messenger will remain

  4. Clive takes the credit.

    [Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 5m5 minutes ago
    Agreement between US & China on a new set of targets to reduce greenhouse emissions follows my talks with @algore in Canberra this year]

    Yep chronologically it does Clive. 😛

  5. All this talk of SPACE and POLLUTION ( the future and Tonys life in the PAST ! ) reminds me of the old Reg Lindsay song …..

    Armstrong

    Black boy in Chicago
    Playing in the street
    Not near enough to wear
    Not near enough to eat
    Don’t you know he saw it
    On a July afternoon
    He saw a man named Armstrong
    Walk upon the moon

    Young girl in Calcutta
    Barely eight years old
    The flies that swarm the market place
    Will see she don’t get old
    Don’t you know she heard it
    On that July afternoon
    She heard a man named Armstrong
    Had walked upon the moon
    She heard a man named Armstrong
    Had walked upon the moon

    The rivers are getting dirty
    The wind is getting bad
    War and hate are killing off
    The only earth we have
    But the world all stopped to watch it
    On that July afternoon
    To watch a man named Armstrong
    Walk upon the moon
    To watch a man named Armstrong
    Walk upon the moon
    To watch a man named Armstrong
    Walk upon the moon
    And I wonder if a long time ago
    Somewhere in the universe
    They watched a man named Adam
    Walk upon the earth

  12. I really really really dislike Peter Hartcher. He puts on the airs of being a serious journalist but he’s yet another corporate media Coalition glad-handing his way into the News Ltd stable.

  14. If you watch the news it’s amazing the education you can get.

    Abbott has informed us that it’s normal for warships to traverse international waters.

    How informative and educational. ( I wonder who told him)

  15. http://www.theage.com.au/business/g20/tony-abbott-says-jobs-and-growth-not-climate-top-of-the-g20-agenda-20141113-11lzud.html


    Mr Abbott said he welcomed the US-China deal as the pair were the “two most significant countries and they’re obviously the two biggest emitters”.

    “As for Australia, I’m focusing not on what might happen in 16 years’ time, I’m focusing on what we’re doing now and we’re not talking, we’re acting,” he told reporters in Burma at the East Asia Summit.

    So he’s thinking about the now, with no consideration for future planning?

  17. [In what sense does Adelaide have more moral turpitude than other Australian cities?]

    It has Pynes of it
    A Downer heaped high
    A veritable Vanstone of the stuff
    More than can be contained in one whole Bernardi.

  18. Jimmy Doyle

    [Oh and I’m working on my political insults. I’m young, so any advice and critique is welcome and much appreciated ]

    My advice would be to forget working on political insults and to pour your energy into understanding political claims in context. If you can manage to become proficient in that, then your words will deal insults or bouquets where and to the extent they are apt without you needing contrivance or art.

    Hating individuals is a waste of energy, and if you can avoid it then more of your mind can be applied to things you have some prospect of changing for the better. It’s inevitable that sooner or later, those of us who are passionate about one thing or another grow impatient with those who seem always to be throwing up obstacles to that which we find worthy, or being insistently reckless or nasty.

    Yet if it gets personal so that someone becomes a hate figure for you, then you are likely to be more damaged than they are, and they achieve a small victory over all you hold dear without even trying. Staying calm, keeping your passion and being clear-eyed about ‘where to from here’ are far easier postures to maintain and far more promising, IMO.

    That’s as true of politics as it is of life more generally, in my experience.

  20. Everything bad that has been said about Adelaide is true.

    It is bad.

    I know, I live here.

    I have managed to avoid the host of annual serial killings, but anyone coming here has to understand it’s a big risk.

    My advice is to stay away and leave us to battle the shocking traffic, which sometimes means it takes an extra 5 minutes to get to work, the constant risk of getting shickered ( a lovely word, even if the spelling’s wrong and one I haven’t heard for decades) on the wine that’s impossible to avoid.

    Someone has to live here, so we’ll do our best. Our economy has bottomed out with the bribes we pay Lonely Planet to make us the most liveable city and happiest in Australia, but don’t let that fool you. It’s a cesspit of murdering thieves, at least 100% worse than any other state.

    Do not come, it’s awful.

    Disclaimer: Vanstone, Downer, Pyne and Bernardi are all from the Eastern Suburbs. Adelaideians understand.

  21. Swing Required,

    Sorry if I was out of line with the serial killing line.

    I think you are being too harsh on your home city. Isn’t it really just Perth without the beaches?

  22. Eff off Boerwar,
    People who are too sophisticated to live in the cesspools of the Eastern stated need somewhere to go. And we should be paid tribute from the rest of the country because South Australia is where most of the good ideas in this nation come from, the rest of you are just the grunts.

  24. @163,

    [Oh and I’m working on my political insults. I’m young, so any adivce and critique is welcome and much appreciated :D]

    You smell!

  25. Harry Hutton on Caracas, Venezuela:

    [You can buy beer while sitting in traffic on the motorway. Certainly, sir! Two big beautiful beers, coming right up!

    This and the silicone tits are not taken into account when calculating The Economist’s Quality of Life Index, which ranks Caracas somewhere between Mogadishu and the Ross Ice Shelf. But do you believe everything The Economist tells you? Hmmm?]

  26. Jolyon

    We’re got plenty of lovely beaches in Adelaide.

    BTW on PB we tend not to mention Adelaide’s serial killers out of respect for Judith Barnes, a PB who died a couple of years ago, as her son was one of the victims.

  27. Swing Required

    That’s all good and fine but some clueless idiot on the Internet thinks the city needs a forced Stalinist-like diaspora to the foot of the Murray for reasons that are never made clear or backed by convincing evidence (but I suspect are based on a limited understanding of outdated economic ideas and half-grasps of the facts)

  28. [Swing Required
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

    …

    [Someone has to live here]

    Typical Adelaidean self-centred chutzpah.

    My point is that people should not live in Adelaide because Adelaide should be shut down.

  29. [163
    JimmyDoyle
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 4:22 pm | PERMALINK
    Oh and I’m working on my political insults. I’m young, so any adivce and critique is welcome and much appreciated :D]
    You could start by getting the PJK Insults app for your iPhone or android.

    Then you need to beware the wrath of William. 😉

  30. CM

    If no-one blinks an eyelid while Barnett closes 130 Indigenous towns why should anyone bat an eyelid about closing Adelaide? At least there are some good reasons for closing down Adelaide.

    The one that most concerns me is that they keep trying to argue that the reason to keep Adelaide open is so that we have somewhere to spend tens of billions on building subs.

    When it would be cheaper to buy better subs overseas and just shut Adelaide down.

    But that is a relativel minor matter compared to my major concern. You guys keep making the rest of us put with education ministers like Pyne. Stuffing up defence procurement is one thing. Destroying Australia’s education system is another thing entirely.

  32. shellbell

    That had been my view. But I was wondering whether the appellant’s team had unearthed a significant wrinkle.

    If it fails, would the reputation of Hird’s legal team take a knock?

  35. [This and the silicone tits are not taken into account when calculating The Economist’s Quality of Life Index, which ranks Caracas somewhere between Mogadishu and the Ross Ice Shelf.]

    Given the predicted temps here in NSW tomorrow, the Ross Ice Shelf might be quite enticing.

  36. Dio

    Do you realise that it is about 6-7 years since we lost Judith – not a couple. Where has that time gone?

    6 weeks ago I spent a beaut Saturday morning in glorious Adelaide with Puffy and her gorgeous dogs. Is that enough superlatives 🙂

    Howya going, Puffy? Did you get my email?

  37. Noting that a bevy of coalsters have referred to ‘technology’ as short hand for ‘clean coal technology’ in the past day or so, the following para from Crikey’s edictorial pertains:

    [A quarter to a third of Australia’s coal mines are already losing money at current prices, and only a weakening dollar is putting a floor under the industry’s prospects. Growth in demand for Australia’s coal exports is going to be increasingly hard to come across, and the coal industry, battling to get costs down, is no longer in a position to spend the billions needed to develop new, competitive low-emissions technology. In any event, “clean coal” technology like carbon capture remains the same pipe dream it’s been for a decade or more.]

  38. Boerwar

    If we close Adelaide the rest of us will have to guinea pigs for all the new food stuff that companies put out. Apparently Adelaide is the testing ground and if they like it the rest of us get it.
    That’s reason enough to keep it going.

  39. I’ve thought for a while now that all of Tasmania outside of Hobart should be evacuated, and turned into a giant national park. I’ve never understood the point of Burnie, Launceston, etc.

  42. A neat summary of the Abbott Government’s approach to Climate Change from Bernard Keane:

    [“Abbott takes pride in his dismantling of a working carbon pricing scheme and his efforts to wreck investment in renewables, using his ever-shrinking Direct Action policy as a cover for climate denialism and a reflexive support for transnational resource companies. Abbott has nothing to offer countries genuinely interested in preventing the huge economic cost of climate change in coming decades, beyond a clear example of what not to do and asinine platitudes about how wonderful coal is.”]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/11/13/xi-obama-deal-leaves-abbott-with-nowhere-to-hide-on-climate/

  43. Boerwar

    Rellie in food industry told me Adelaide is the perfect place for testing as it’s a hard market to crack. If it goes well in Adelaide they know the rest of Oz will snap it up.

  44. [ Apparently Adelaide is the testing ground and if they like it the rest of us get it. ]

    BH – That Adelaide ‘delicacy’ Fritz never took off Nationally though – at least not under that name 🙂

  46. dave Ah, my childhood delight. Fritz and sauce sangers.

    Very disappointing to find it was Devon in NSW and of inferior quality – how’s that for my South Aussie snootiness!

    Actually I love both States.

  47. [ @163,

    Oh and I’m working on my political insults. I’m young, so any adivce and critique is welcome and much appreciated 😀 ]

    Given your opponents are on average likely to be older than you, age based insults about advancing physical decrepitude and mental ossification are a good base to work from.

    Remind them of why youth is wasted on the young.

    😉

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