BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Not much movement in the weekly federal poll aggregate, although what little change there has been is consistent with a recent trend to Labor.

Only one new federal poll this week, that being the always reliable Essential Research, and it has made only the most negligible of differences to the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate numbers. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift to Labor on two-party preferred is sufficient to score them an extra seat in Queensland on the seat projection. Essential also provided its once-monthly new data point for the leadership ratings, and while Bill Shorten is up a little on net approval, here too there is no real change worth writing home about.

If you’re after a meatier read than this post has been able to offer, you may enjoy my paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on the apparent leftward drift in voter sentiment over the past two decades, and the absence of the growing polarisation so widely noted in the United States. I also have a rather extensive new post on developments in the Victorian election campaign.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. [They’re going to have to be voted out for Australia to change course.]

    Actually, Hockey’s already signalling a likely revised target. Their lines are getting messed up already by this annnouncement.

  2. [When your kids are younger than you are today there will be no fish in the sea.

    None. Thats the scientific projection.

    We really havent come to grips with how our current political and economic systems are complete failures in terms of reproducing the conditions of our existence.]

    There are great examples of management strategies for these types of systems working really effectively, when the political will is found. It’s all a very straightforward mix of science (e.g. estimating sustainable fisheries yields) and economics (e.g. implementing a cap-and-trade market in permits for harvesting quotas).

    We have the methods, but choose not to use them – that is the tragedy.

  3. I think a very damaging aspect (for the Libs) of the China/US Carbon Reduction announcement is that its being reported that the negotiations have been going on for 9 months.

    And our besties in the US didn’t drop any hints to our expert FM Ms Mesma that this was on the way? And they drop it on us by surprise AFTER our Govt has dismantled the market based system we had AND while they are trying to get rid of the RET??

    AND all this is being done when important people who’s positions the world actually cares about are about to make speeches IN Australia that will HAVE to refer to the Carbon Reduction commitments they have made.

    Are these the actions of world leaders who care in any way shape or form about their hosts domestic political agenda and credibility??

    Abbott HAS to be there at those speeches and is going to be desperately hoping for a favourable mention of Direct Action by someone, anyone, or else he will look like a complete desperate dick sinking in shit creek. 🙂

    Going to take a bit of the shine off the Libs attempt to distract from their domestic and budget disasters with International He-Man stories. 🙂

    And if they start banging on at the G20 about “price signals” in Health and Education, Welfare “Reform” and doG forbid Tax Reform that includes the GST then they will have successfully linked their one to date positive (international matters) with their biggest negatives (unfair budget). They must REALLY be relying on Rupert and a weak media to save their sorry arses??

  4. I think that Jacqui Lambie’s declaration of independence makes the Government’s job more difficult. She has become one more vote the Government is unlikely to get. She appears to have more antipathy towards the Government than other PUP Senators.

    On the other hand, her move might embolden Senator Wang of WA to some freelancing of his own, and he seems more open to the Government’s positions than Senator Lazarus. If party discipline breaks down completely, the net effect might be neutral: one PUP Senator who votes with the Government more often than a united PUP would, and one PUP Senator who votes against the Government more often than a united PUP would.

    The basic problem is that the PUP lacks policy coherence. It is just a vehicle for Clive Palmer’s views, which shift suddenly. There is no policy agenda to be loyal to. Party discipline in the PUP amounts to loyalty to a capricious man. PUP party discipline was never a stable or meaningful property to begin with.

  5. Apparently there is somewhat of a strange and disorderly queue lining up for food at Harry’s Cafe de Wheels. The latter has updated its offerings to include borscht mit wodka on the side.

  6. Ice crisis beat ups

    Gotta love them

    Yesterday not a crisis in remote communities
    Today it is….every third house is an icedealer…wow!!!

    Don’t these journos know that if you ask someone in a detox they’ll tell big porkies so their funding doesnt get cut?

  7. When your kids are younger than you are today there will be no fish in the sea.

    I’m just not sure what that sentence means. My kids are younger than I am today.

  8. Boerwar@90

    The latest line in the long lines in the sand by climate do nothings is to refer to ‘technology’ as the saviour.

    Hunt does it.

    Walsh did it last night.

    This morning Hockey did it.

    You know when this crew are talking bullshit about technology when they walk away from renewables.

    For them, there is only one technology that counts – ‘clean’ coal.

    Obviously when they say “technology”, they blatantly ignore technologies around renewables.

  9. 108

    A united PUP that supports a Coalition bill is a far better outcome for the Coalition than having to round up individual Senators. Doing deals with several Senators on each contested bill will, almost certainly, cost far more than not getting a few PUP opposed bills up.

    PUP stability was never likely to last unless Palmer got only his personal yes people to run.

  10. K

    Alison Anderson was putting a point the other day that whenever whitefellas want to inflict a new set of government indignities on blackfellas they start off by describing a calamity. Howard/Brough did spurious and largely discredited pedophile rings. Abbott is doing ice dealers.

    Barnett is, more simply, and despite the huge numbers of dollars in the Rorts for Regions pork barrell, declaring that he is broke so he is going to shift around 130 Indigenous communities.

    Imagine the shock jock uproar if he tried to do the same to just a single white community.

    With the support of Quislings like Pearson and Mundine, the Abbott Government is firmly back into the Assimiliationist/concentration phase of Indigenous Affairs.

    The wheel may turn again – who really knows what whitefellas will get up to next time – but a lot of destruction is going on. This support is almost completely unnoticed by the MSM, the Greens or the Labor Party.

    Blackfellas are back where they were two hundred years ago: on their own.

  11. RBA assistant Governor Kent says they have not ruled out intervention on AUD…

    …and the AUD drops 50 pips!

    Now that’s a jawbone.

  12. Anyway, if there is one community that Australian politicians should shift, it is Adelaide. Here are the reasons:

    (1) It is a sink of moral turpitude.

    (2) It depends on cross-subsidies from other Australians to maintain an unsustainable lifestyle.

    (3) It is ecologically unsustainable – mostly deforested and many local extinctions and extirpations.

    (4) Its greed threatens to derail, once more, Australia’s defence expenditure.

    (5) Global warming is going to make all this worse. A stitch in time would save nine.

    (6) Nestled at the cloaca end of the MD system, it causes huge evaporation costs by insisting that water is consumed at the end of the system and not at the beginning of the system.

  13. zoomster @99

    That is exactly as I saw it on the day and some of the comments on here and in the press were just looking for something to complain about.

  14. Kinkajou@116

    Your kids needs must ALWAYS be younger than you surely?

    I know you’re probably taking the piss, but I think the prediction says the fish to be gone by the time reaches an age of the reader (or younger).

  15. Just stumbled past THE PUB….damn…I mean Crikey IT LOOKED FAMILIAR OVER THERE…thats where all them folks went…plus some who must cut an paste everything

  16. Its going bad. Hockey on 24 now saying how we are ready to host the G20

    Given experience we know that means we are definitely not ready

  17. BW

    SOme years back I became aware of the dread that our first nationals had for the research arts. Understandable when, every time someone makes a finding it causes further fucking up of their communities

  18. [Doing deals with several Senators on each contested bill will, almost certainly, cost far more than not getting a few PUP opposed bills up.]

    Not to mention the concessions PUP has won to date haven’t amounted to very much.

  19. [
    Not to mention the concessions PUP has won to date haven’t amounted to very much.]

    Clive has got a lot of free publicity – tick
    Clive has got what his business wants – tick

    Clive has fooled a few progressives – tick

    For all her apparent stupidity Clive hasn’t fooled Lambie

  20. [135
    shellbell
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 2:19 pm | PERMALINK
    No doubt a legacy of deserters leaving the great state of NSW.]

    Once great state maybe – now just corruption central

  21. [davidwh

    Special report to PB from the Bribie WW2 bunker. All is quiet so far. No hostile ships spotted. Bunker is almost ready for action although having trouble removing all the concrete from the cannon barrel.
    ]

    Is the rumour true that the PM is searching for someone to become a human cannonball, carrying a “surrender now” message from Team Australia?

  22. Poor Joe Hockey – he’s struggling to keep G20 focussed on his pet ideas.

    [TREASURER Joe Hockey has acknowledged the climate deal struck between China and the United States is significant, but stresses the focus of the G20 remains on economic growth.

    “The whole agenda is focused on growth and jobs.”

    The treasurer said climate change was “both a risk and an opportunity” for the world economy.

    But he couldn’t emphasise enough the need to focus on economic growth.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/hockey-wants-g20-focus-on-jobs-growth/story-e6frfku9-1227121403405

    It’s a pity for Hockey that growth and jobs are two areas where Australia is doing poorly under this government.

  23. The Royal Australian Navy-contractors to Team Australia- wish to inform that the flotilla of Rooskie subs successfully attacked and sunk this morning off Fraser Island were, in fact, a passing pod of whales.

    Admiral of the fleet, Commander of the Cinque Ports, Keeper of the Happy Clapper faith and noted speaker of ” The Tongue ” Scott Morrison declined to comment as to whether or not the action was on/off/in water.

  24. Boerwar 120

    Anyway, if there is one community that Australian politicians should shift, it is Adelaide. Here are the reasons:

    (1) It is a sink of moral turpitude.

    (2) It depends on cross-subsidies from other Australians to maintain an unsustainable lifestyle.

    (3) It is ecologically unsustainable – mostly deforested and many local extinctions and extirpations.

    (4) Its greed threatens to derail, once more, Australia’s defence expenditure.

    (5) Global warming is going to make all this worse. A stitch in time would save nine.

    (6) Nestled at the cloaca end of the MD system, it causes huge evaporation costs by insisting that water is consumed at the end of the system and not at the beginning of the system.

    As a South Australia and former Adelaidean, I know that most of this is right, but I’d like to make just a couple of points.

    (1) It is a sink of moral turpitude.

    I know, and Adelaideans are dreadfully sorry about this. The rot started with Don Dunstan and his pink hotpants, butr we should have taken collective responsibility and pulled up our socks.
    Instead we pulled down our pants.

    (2) It depends on cross-subsidies from other Australians to maintain an unsustainable lifestyle.

    We don’t have as large a market for questionable financial products as Sydney or Melbourne, so our median salaries are much lower.

    (3) It is ecologically unsustainable – mostly deforested and many local extinctions and extirpations.

    Only 99% true. Kangaroo Island koalas are in plague proportions, and a real threat. They don’t call them drop bears for nothing.

    (4) Its greed threatens to derail, once more, Australia’s defence expenditure.

    If they didn’t make submarines so complicated, it would be less of a problem. I could design one for you for $100,000 or maybe, $1,000,000 or so. Just need to get back to basics. A submarine is really just a big metal pipe with a motor.

    (5) Global warming is going to make all this worse. A stitch in time would save nine.

    There are plans to re-site Adelaide in the hills. We just have finish the extirpation program first in order to reduce the fire hazard.

    (6) Nestled at the cloaca end of the MD system, it causes huge evaporation costs by insisting that water is consumed at the end of the system and not at the beginning of the system.

    Untrue. Murray water is in fact consumed many times by the time we get to drink it.

  25. [Former prime minister Paul Keating welcomed the US and China’s deal, labelling the current Australian policy as “complete nonsense”.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-13/calls-for-australia-to-reduce-emissions-after-us-china-deal/5887474

    And look at Abbott trying to worm his way out of the humiliation. What a pathetic WORM!

    [He said China and the United States were the world’s biggest polluters, while Australia contributed to just 1 per cent of global emissions.

    Mr Abbott also said there were plenty of forums where climate change could be discussed, but said the focus of G20 was economic reform.]

    Actually its 1.5%, ya plonker, and if countries emitting 1-2% were to do nothing, then a WHOPPING 20% of global emissions would continue without abatement. Thats bigger than China (19%) or the US (18%).

    Incidentally, 1.5% is almost as bad as the UK (1.7%),with 4 times the population. We’re the WORST per capita.

    None of that is acceptable,and everyone knows it.

    http://www.climatechange.gov.au/international/international-action/global-context-australias-place

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