A big welcome to the federal polling game to Ipsos, from the Poll Bludger and all who sail in her. GhostWhoVotes relates that Fairfax’s new pollster has opened its federal account with a result well in line with the overall trend, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. The poll targeted 1400 respondents from both landlines and mobile phones. Still awaiting primary votes, but the poll shows 51% opposed to the notion of increasing the GST and reducing income tax, with 41% in support, and 54% opposed to the government’s paid parental scheme, with 40% in support.
UPDATE: The primary votes are 42% Coalition, 37% Labor, 12% Greens and 3% Palmer United. Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is 53-47, as opposed to the 51-49 result from 2013 election preferences. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are tied 41-41 on preferred prime minister, the former rating 42% on approval and 49% on disapproval, and the latter rating 43% and 40%.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): After two relatively good results for the Coalition, the latest fortnightly Morgan result has then down a point to 38.5%, Labor up two to 37.5%, the Greens up half a point to 12.5% and Palmer United down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred result is 54.5-45.5 while previous election preferences is at 53.5-46.5, in both cases up from 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends, from a sample of 3117.
lizzie@349
[The technology involves changing brown coal into a type of coal that burns more cleanly in a new kind of diesel engine that can be fitted to coal-fired power plants]
really bad coal -> bad coal -> bad diesel
Laughable, if it wasn’t government policy.
lizzie,
You can’t trust science. It’s all hogwah.
For example Atoms: They make up everything!
Nicholas,
You really write a lot of crap.
Just as well Shorten got cross factional support, then, Nicholas.
Coal is basically carbon plus impurities. Burning coal combines Carbon and oxygen which gives carbon dioxide. That’s what burning is. So coal can’t be ‘clean’. All you can do is capture the major waste product – carbon dioxide – a very stable substance that effectively lasts forever – and store it somewhere where it can’t escape – ever.
That does not sound particularly eastpy, to say the least. The technology does not currently exist on anything like the scale needed (unless you regard green plants as ‘technology’).
What arrant nonsense from Greg Hunt. He says technologies which reduce carbon emissions are “immature and unproven”. Yet the government wants to weaken the RET because renewable electricity and energy efficiency technologies have been too successful (from the fossil fuel generators’ point of view) at reducing demand for grid power.
The technology for co2 capture and storage on a large scale does exist – it just isn’t a universal solution. Go have a read at the CO2 CRC web page.
Greens leader Christine Milne was all over the news tonight saying it is “death or coal”.
Ooops!
Christine, I will take the coal rather than death if they are our choices.
Thanks, Darren.
Ooh, Morgan swings to ALP. Thats more my sense of the last week and Ill tke it over spurious comparisons between two different in-house fairfax pollsters.
“death or coal”.
Hmm. She might want to tweak than one.
Australia now 243/8.
The end is nigh!
[350
Nicholas
Someone like Gough wouldn’t be elected leader today. They might get an overwhelming endorsement from the party members but the parliamentary members would vote on factional lines and override the members’ wishes.]
This is pure supposition. The fact is, the same caucus that had chosen Calwell also chose Whitlam. The last ballot was not conducted on factional lines and there’s no reason to suppose “the factions” would rule out any leader of great merit and talent – none at all.
Nicholas, this is just more anti-Labor bile. It borders on bigotry.
[Australia is facing pressure from Europe, the United Nations, scientists and the environment movement to ensure the G20 leaders’ summit makes a clear statement on climate action.]
AAP article on Yahoo 7
Nicholas is here “to poke Labor with a stick” or words to that effect.
He is best ignored.
[Greens leader Christine Milne was all over the news tonight saying it is “death or coal”.]
Good grief. Sounds like she’s been taking lessons in communication from SHY.
Briefly, it isn’t bigotry to point out that the Labor Party has moved significantly to the right since Whitlam’s time as leader. Gough Whitlam and Malcolm Fraser agreed in their retirement that both parties had done this and that it was a problem.
Frankly it is sentimental, nostalgic garbage to deny the ideological shift which has occurred.
Briefly@340
I don’t suppose it matters much now. I have swung from supporter of DLS to total indifference.
Another of those “decisions” that government pretends to give to the electorate but has other agendas – a little like the proposed amalgamations of Local Government areas.
Now this latter is really a case of democracy in action! Not.
Nicholas@365
That is just a product of sheer ignorance.
If you thing the the “left” of Whitlam’s era with the likes of George Crawford, Bill Hartley and Joe Chamberlain running it was “left” in the normal sense of the word, then you are demented.
Perhaps Milne said “death FOR coal” rather than “death OR coal ” ?
This is what you get without independent court oversight. The inevitable abuse of power
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-03/asylum-seekers-on-manus-island-allegedly-tortured-and-threatene/5861120
Good for Pakistan given all the privations their cricketers encounter.
That should be the end for Lyon, Haddin and Siddle and probably Rogers and Blewitt as fielding coach.
Hopefully, we will also avoid ever again playing a gimmicky batsman at 3 and having a fielder at straight hit.
I am loathe to quote News Ltd, but the other outlets appear to have given Christine Milne’s gaffe a free pass.
[Australia needs to choose between coal and death, according to Greens Leader Christine Milne, who jumped on the IPCC’s findings.
“Do you want death or do you want coal?
“That’s what we’re talking about here,” she told reporters in Hobart.
“Tony Abbott wants coal. Coal is not good for humanity just as Tony Abbott is not good for the planet when we’re talking about global warming.”]
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/fossil-fuels-must-go-by-2100-to-limit-climate-change-un-says/story-fnjwvztl-1227110315361
Again, Christine, if you are asking, I want coal rather than death.
Thank you.
[ Leigh Sales reveals new talent in project with Annabel Crabb ]
Heaven help us – celebrity media B-listers unite!
What will it be?
Celebrity Journo Big Brother?
Dancing with the Pollies?
I am a Journalist, Get me out of Here?
[365
Nicholas
Briefly, it isn’t bigotry to point out that the Labor Party has moved significantly to the right since Whitlam’s time as leader.]
This is delusional. Gough was from the nominal right. His fiercest internal enemies were on Labor’s self-styled left, much as Labor has critics these days who style themselves as “left”. In fact, the left were sufficiently hostile to institutional reform as well as policy activism to have been prepared to depose Gough. This really would have been the victory of factional discipline over good sense. Even so, they very nearly succeeded in just that.
You have a particular resentment of Labor. It borders on bigotry – on an unreasoned hatred that relies on stereotypes and myths.
Yes, if Gough were leading Labor today Nicholas and his Green left twitter trolls would be tweeting about how Gough isn’t left wing enough — that ending the White Australia Policy will drive down Aussie wages — that ties with China are bad given their human rights record — you can hear it now…
*yawn*
That is a very bizarre statement from Milne, and one that definitely needed teasing out a little better. I can kinda see where she’s coming from, but jeez she’s totally squibbed an opportunity to cut through on the IPCC report.
[ABC journalists Annabel Crabb and Leigh Sales have launched an independent podcast – complete with A Chorus Line-inspired theme song they have written and sung themselves, with Sales on piano.
A four-minute preview of the podcast, called Chat 10 Looks 3, was posted on the pair’s Twitter accounts this afternoon.
“It’s basically going to be just us talking about whatever we’ve read this week, or other things we’ve been doing,” explains Sales, host of the ABC’s national current affairs program 7.30.
Leigh Sales: ‘It’s just us mucking around.’
Leigh Sales: ‘It’s just us mucking around.’
“And it’s an excuse for Salesy to indulge her ridiculously close-to-the-surface obsession with musical theatre,” adds Crabb, presenter of Kitchen Cabinet.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/leigh-sales-and-annabel-crabb-launch-new-podcast-20141103-11gatj.html#ixzz3Hzval2PQ
]
Ok this is just asking for Abbott and co to shut down the ABC. If they have time to do this sort of stuff, then clearly they aren’t working full time to justify their $200,000+ tax payer salaries…
[366
Tricot
Briefly]
The local government stuff proves that all politics is local. I live in Kalamunda where the people are very opposed to amalgamation. The main reason is fear that the Sunday Market (which is really very good) will be shut down by the City of Belmont should they get the chance. Change evokes fear…always an obstacle.
Briefly, the “left” and “right” labels for the factions are mostly devoid of ideological content. The factions institutionalize personal alliances more than anything else.
Gough Whitlam and Malcolm Fraser both agreed that in the decades since their retirement both major parties shifted significantly to the right and that this was bad for the country. Someone with Gough Whitlam’s grand policy ambitions would not be elected leader of today’s timid Labor party. As Paul Keating has observed, the party’s direction is inordinately swayed by the sort of people who don’t get out of bed in the morning without a focus group to tell them which side.
The boldness, the vision, the intellect of Gough no longer characterize the party.
[Salesy]
If they want a part in Upper Middle Bogan, they should audition like everybody else.
[ABC journalists Annabel Crabb and Leigh Sales have launched an independent podcast – complete with A Chorus Line-inspired theme song they have written and sung themselves, with Sales on piano.]
Jesus. Would the ABC have allowed this kind of thing to happen to its male supposedly serious journalists? Can you see Red Kerry and Tony Jones degrading themselves with this kind of vaudeville?
[ ABC journalists Annabel Crabb and Leigh Sales have launched an independent podcast – complete with A Chorus Line-inspired theme song they have written and sung themselves, with Sales on piano.
Jesus. Would the ABC have allowed this kind of thing to happen to its male supposedly serious journalists? Can you see Red Kerry and Tony Jones degrading themselves with this kind of vaudeville?]
You couldn’t make this stuff up.
Communist Kerry would be spinning in his grave.
It’s superb time management. Have you seen how much those two have accomplished? Some people are exceptionally efficient and driven in their use of time.
Nicholas@378
Whitlam’s program was not notably “left” and at the time the so-called “left” of the ALP were his vehement opponents.
Whitlam was more a moderniser than an idealogue of the left.
What ever you are taking is having a bad effect on you.
What part of “independent podcast” are you struggling with? It isn’t an ABC venture. Some people play golf in their free time. Others make podcasts about musical theatre. There is no problem here.
Actually if ‘Salesy’ wants to explore her sliding doors musical career, then this seems an opportune time to return the woman who relieved Sales on mat leave (whose name currently escapes me) to 730Land and revive that program as a serious current affairs venture.
[It’s superb time management. Have you seen how much those two have accomplished? Some people are exceptionally efficient and driven in their use of time.]
Well, yes, as Crabbe admits, she gets paid to work from bed some days if it is all too much to get up.
Most of us don’t have that sort of job — and certainly not at over 200k — where we can write drivel about politics and about how much we love both Abbott and Gillard (beautifully balanced in that ABC way our Crabbey is) from bed.
[
Rex Douglas
Posted Monday, November 3, 2014 at 5:14 pm | Permalink
Morgan or Ipsos… who to believe… ?
]
The one that can at least make the percentages add to 100 would be a good place to start.
You have to be a sloppy pollster to accept such sloppy maths.
Why is it that when a Green decides to criticise Labor we don’t get those posts telling us how we should all love each other and unite against the common foe?
Tom the first and best@118
Hmmm. If I had any information to easily suggest one figure was more likely to have been rounded (up in this case) than another I would use it, but I don’t.
In some cases the released 2PP could be used to provide information about which figure was most probably rounded. But when we’re talking about what the typical 2PP for a set of primaries is, then as soon as you start conditioning using the 2PP you may as well throw the direct calculation method away.
Whitlam was a modernizer who significantly expand the size and scope of government. I know the limitations of the terms left and right, but it’s pretty silly to pretend that Whitlam’s program was not of the left.
In any event, the point is that somebody with that kind of reformist zeal would not rise to the position of leader of today’s ALP.
Here are some reforms which are modest in scope compared with what Whitlam achieved but which today’s Labor won’t touch:
scrapping negative gearing
scrapping the capital gains tax discount for housing
scrapping the tax subsidy for private health insurance
Those policies would not only raise many billions of dollars in extra revenue every year. Money that could be used to bring the poorest quarter of Australian schools up to a level of funding which matches the scale of their educational tasks. These policies would eliminate unhealthy distortions in the housing market, the financial system, and the health care system.
If there’s anyone who supports those measures who is in the running for the position of Labor leader, let me know. Melissa Parke might support them but she wouldn’t be considered leadership material in today’s ALP.
The fact that even modest wind-backs of ill-considered, regressive, wasteful LNP policies are not contemplated by today’s Labor shows how craven a once great party has become.
If they can’t do the maths they should release the raw data and let others do it.
Wait, why does the Labor party need a leader with a vision? I thought it was going to make all its decisions by member vote now.
[Why is it that when a Green decides to criticise Labor we don’t get those posts telling us how we should all love each other and unite against the common foe?]
Because most of us aren’t bothered how rusted on Greens voters (or rusted on Libs ftm) view our party. They’ll never vote Labor, so why on earth should we concern ourselves with their views?
Well zoomster I thought the greens statement for the state election was stupid. The desalination plant and the north-west pipeline was about insurance. Ok it rained; we didn’t need to build in haste (except for Ballarat and Bendigo both of which would have ran out of water if different timeslines were used). It is still insurance; insurance we may well need over the life time of both projects.
Very easy to be a smart ass after the event; an event that could have seen Melbourne ran out of water if no action was taken and the drought had continued.
Nicholas@390
With that suite of policies, Labor would struggle to get as many votes as the Greens…
Ahhhh! So that’s your cunning plan 🙂 🙂
Briefyly@377
I don’t think many are opposed to amalgamation per se but The Emperor is not really letting various councils – and the rate payers – have much of a say.
While tiny country shires are protected by the Nationals from any kind of rationalisation, the rest of us in Perth are merely by-standers with little or no say,
At one point the silver tails down the river were still going to keep their small and inefficient local councils while the rest of us are just being shunted around.
Where I live the whole segment is being chopped off and integrated into another jurisdiction which I doubt has much affinity to our geography.
[The one that can at least make the percentages add to 100 would be a good place to start.
You have to be a sloppy pollster to accept such sloppy maths.]
If someone’s rounded numbers are always adding up to 100, they’re doing it by jiggling around with their figures, for the sake of not having so suffer silly comments like this one. It happens to be wrong though.
More seriously, why do I continually read on here that it’s a bad thing that Labor has moved to the right over the decades?
It’s a good thing, because the electorate as a whole has moved significantly to the right. And that too is a good thing, because it reflects the much, much higher standard of living that working class Australians have today. 50 years ago, working class Australians couldn’t aspire to things that are now seen as pretty basic: a separate bedroom for each child, chicken and prime cuts of beef for dinner whenever they like, overseas holidays, eating out regularly, bottled wine, etc, etc.
Prosperity makes people more right wing. But it doesn’t necessarily take away their belief in equity and a fair go. But there is no future in contemporary Australia for an avowedly socialist party. Australians might sometimes make silly electoral choices, but they aren’t silly enough to vote socialists into government.
Sorry about that, die hard Labor leftists (including dear Albo) and Green watermelons.
Not really sure how the things two ABC presenters choose to do with their free time has anything to do with their salaries, or anything to do with people who aren’t interested in whatever they’re producing.
If Labor had taken the huge step right that people claim, they’d be trying to wind back the sort of progressive reform Whitlam implemented. The current Labor party might not be charging headlong left as fast and as far as Whitlam wanted to, but then, all the really big stuff has already been achieved. Carbon taxes, mining taxes, the NDIS, the NBN and Gonski are all policies that would only ever come from the left. Labor haven’t gone right – they’re just not going as far left as the chatterariat wants.
[Prosperity makes people more right wing.]
Does it?
Or does prosperity make people more aspirational, and in the current political landscape it is the Liberal party which is generally thought of (rightly or wrongly) as the natural party of aspiration?