A big welcome to the federal polling game to Ipsos, from the Poll Bludger and all who sail in her. GhostWhoVotes relates that Fairfax’s new pollster has opened its federal account with a result well in line with the overall trend, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. The poll targeted 1400 respondents from both landlines and mobile phones. Still awaiting primary votes, but the poll shows 51% opposed to the notion of increasing the GST and reducing income tax, with 41% in support, and 54% opposed to the government’s paid parental scheme, with 40% in support.
UPDATE: The primary votes are 42% Coalition, 37% Labor, 12% Greens and 3% Palmer United. Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is 53-47, as opposed to the 51-49 result from 2013 election preferences. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are tied 41-41 on preferred prime minister, the former rating 42% on approval and 49% on disapproval, and the latter rating 43% and 40%.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): After two relatively good results for the Coalition, the latest fortnightly Morgan result has then down a point to 38.5%, Labor up two to 37.5%, the Greens up half a point to 12.5% and Palmer United down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred result is 54.5-45.5 while previous election preferences is at 53.5-46.5, in both cases up from 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends, from a sample of 3117.
[Big call from Clive.
Clive Palmer @CliveFPalmer 46s ago
A QLD-elected @PalmerUtdParty Govt will resume public assets leased by @theqldpremier’s Govt without compensation to private sector #qldpol
]
Not really. The assets won’t be leased until post-election and if PUP wins then there won’t be any leased assets to resume.
Is Cliev pretending to be a socialist again?
[300
William Bowe
Morgan: ALP 37.5 (+2), L-NP 38.5 (-1), GRN 12.5 (+0.5), PUP 3 (-0.5). Respondent-allocated 2PP: 54.5-45.5, up from 52-48. Previous election 2PP: 53.5-46.5, up from 52-48.]
…consoling… 🙂
I like the Morgan Headline 🙂
[ALP surges after Abbott announces new petrol tax and following the death of Labor icon Gough Whitlam]
briefly, if we don’t know which way the coin is biased, then it’s the point which minimises the worst error.
Clive’s a charlatan, just like his Prime Minister.
Morgan or Ipsos… who to believe… ?
[A QLD-elected @PalmerUtdParty Govt will resume public assets leased by @theqldpremier’s Govt without compensation to private sector ]
I wouuld expect all the leases, and all the sun’s fuel, would expire before we ever get a PUP Goverment.
[305
DisplayName
briefly, if we don’t know which way the coin is biased, then it’s the point which minimises the worst error.]
I understand that, for sure. 0.5 is the right place to start from to ensure the shortest hunt. That would always be true no matter what the bias was/was not – no matter the probability that 0.5 might be the point where we will come to rest at the end of the hunt.
In this respect, surely the decision to start at 0.5 is not a matter of induction but one that is necessitated by deduction. That is, the starting point is not about probability at all but about logical exclusions/inclusions.
(I’ve never given any of this stuff any thought…it is interesting…)
Bad news for Abbott
@solarcitizens: Palmer United @SenatorLazarus has reaffirmed his support for protecting the #RET in full. RT to stand with him! https://t.co/MmNz9d69tV
Looks like renewables won’t die
[Are we not conflating two universes: one in which coins are not biased and one in which they are. Why should we suppose that the probabilities that applied in an unbiased universe should be the starting point in the biased universe? Would we apply this rule in reverse?]
It’s more something like: we start with all possible coins.
Then we know that our coin definitely has a bias, so we throw away the unbiased coins.
What’s left? 50% of our coins are biased towards heads, and 50% towards tails. For every coin that’s extremely biased one way, there’s one with an extreme bias to cancel it out. As LU says the problem is symmetrical, so there’s no reason to choose heads over tails.
The probability depends on our knowledge of the situation. Knowing that our coin is not unbiased does not help unless we know more about *how* it’s biased.
guytaur #310
a good chance the wind will change like it has with other policy decisions….
Rex
Sample size reduces margin of error
Even if the coin is biased and you know it is biased and you might even know the extent of the bias, it does not tell you what the outcome of the next flip of the coin will be.
On the other hand…
If I told you: “I have two coins. One of them comes up heads 100% of the time, the other one comes up tails 75% of the time.”
Then the overall probability depends on how I decide which coin to flip.
If you don’t know how I make this choice, what is the best assumption?
Anne Henderson is making an idiot of herself on the Drum arguing against the science
Rex Douglas@307
Each accurately measures the sample it used at the time the sampling was done.
The question then becomes how representative was the sample of the entire population?
Neither will be 100% accurate and they were taken at different times.
So the answer is to believe each for what it is, and infer what you can about how well each reflects how the population would answer.
[315
mimhoff
On the other hand…
If I told you: “I have two coins. One of them comes up heads 100% of the time, the other one comes up tails 75% of the time.”
Then the overall probability depends on how I decide which coin to flip.
If you don’t know how I make this choice, what is the best assumption?]
You’re Greg Hunt?
briefly
very good 😆
This sums up Henderson on the Drum tonight well
“@patmelb8: Surely #thedrum can find some conservative commentators that are slightly more articulate than twitter trolls #annehenderson #timwilson”
guytaur
What’s her argument?
“Gerard told me?”
lizzie
5% is too big a doubt to take action by putting a cap on emissions.
Thats it roughly
guytaur
Sheeit!
I understand that Morgan is known to be biased towards the ALP, while Ipsos is a new and unknown quantity. Other polls seem to be around an ALP 2PP of about 52%.
The Morgan poll with a 3,371 sample size would have a margin of error of about 1.7%.
If someone of Goughs presence, strength and political courage were take hold of the ALP in no time they’d have a 60/40 2PP lead over this fraudulent Abbott Govt.
I’d say the voters are saying “No likey” to the petrol tax increase.
Rex,
Yeah, just like he did back in the 70s.
I think Shorten is doing well. He is letting the Greens do the running on the make a noise front. He has kept Labor in front in the polls and his approval ratings for an opposition leader are good.
[It’s a most beautiful day here. Calm, sunny, 19 deg. The garden smells sweet with flowers. Baby ducks on the lake and tortoisess sunning themselves. Blue and yellow irses just in bloom at water’s edge. Young magpie calling for food. Robin in the shadows searching the ground for insects. Golden whistler. Butterflies.]
Sounds like the lake needs a jet ski or three to liven things up.
Briefly – way back on 217 re DST in Perth.
The comment I made about ‘those close to the river and beach’ supporting DST in Perth, was an outcome from one of the referendums.
I seem to remember an analysis carried out by either the Sunday Times or West, which tried to pin point just who voted which way.
Geographically, the outcome appeared that the country folk were strongly against DST, but when it can to the city, those on the water wanted it but those further away (City Beach v Kalamunda?) were not in favour.
When the hinterlanders in Perth were joined with the country folk, DST was dead.
[If someone of Goughs presence, strength and political courage were take hold of the ALP in no time they’d have a 60/40 2PP lead over this fraudulent Abbott Govt.]
Someone like Gough wouldn’t get preselection for Labor in WA.
guytaur
If someone had told me after the election that a year later Labor would be consistently in front I definitely would not have believed them.
poroti
Of course the ALP would be in front.
We all knew an Abbott Govt would be a fraudulent Govt.
[331
Tricot]
As I recall, the referendum was lost in every seat in the Perth Metro area. I don’t think the vote was positive in a single booth.
Maybe the results are still available at the WAEC…I should find out.
shellbell
I just crossed you off my Christmas Card list. 😮
I wouldn’t use a coin that comes up heads 100% of the time in any two-up game.
I think that Gough would be regarded as too ‘courageous’ for the ALP.
Rex Douglas
He led a fraudulent opposition but was elected any way. Abbott is appalling enough to blow up his government without any outside help. The surprise was that the poll reversal occurred so quickly.
Tricot…
my hostility to DS overcame my memory…the result was postive in some seats…
http://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/referendums/past-referendums/sr2009
Rex, hindsight makes a genius of us all.
Nobody that I am aware of predicted the ALP would be so consistently in front, so soon after the election.
I never doubted Abbott would give the voters cause for a serious case of buyer’s remorse within his first term, but not in my wildest dreams did I think it would be so quick. He was in trouble with them even before his first budget was delivered.
[The surprise was that the poll reversal occurred so quickly.]
El Snappo!
Latest Morgan
Finding No. 5905 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends of October 25/26 & November 1/2, 2014 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,117 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.
In early November ALP support rose to 54.5% (up 2.5%) and now clearly leads the L-NP 45.5% (down 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If an election had been held the ALP would have won easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,117 Australian electors aged 18+ over the last two weekends.
[…but not in my wildest dreams did I think it would be so quick. He was in trouble with them even before his first budget was delivered.]
Their born-to-rule mentality seems to have clouded their judgment.
[Their born-to-rule mentality seems to have clouded their judgment.]
Their = Abbot and the LNP machine
The Silver Bodgie
It is just amazing how it is all coming apart so quickly.
The Government’s born to rule arrogance is not winning anything for them.
You cannot run a Government on slogans and that is all we are getting from this mob.
I am also of the view that the death of Whitlam is having some play with the electorate.
In hindsight they are seeing what a decent Government really can do when their heart is in serving the people not just themselves and their cronies.
Don’t forget Brandis on alone on Q&A tonight I hope the audience dishes it up to him.
[A leading international climate change economist has urged Tony Abbott not to “wish away” the evidence for climate change or prevent it from being discussed at the upcoming G20 summit because of “local politics” and a “lack of courage” to confront the scientific evidence.
. . .
In a commentary for the Guardian, Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change in the UK and a former World Bank chief economist, wrote that climate change action by politicians was now urgent, with lives and livelihoods at risk.
“With each successive decade being warmer than the last globally, and this year shaping up to be the hottest ever recorded, the reality of climate change is undeniable, and cannot be simply wished away by politicians who lack the courage to confront the scientific evidence,” he wrote.
“{It} should place enormous pressure on the Australian prime minister, Tony Abbott, to make it a major agenda item at the G20 summit later this month, instead of shunting it to the sidelines.
The G20 summit would provide the most effective platform for world leaders to discuss transitioning to a low-carbon economy, he wrote.
“Yet the local politics of a country of less than 25 million is being allowed to prevent essential strategic discussions of an issue that is of fundamental importance to the prosperity and well-being of the world’s population of 7 billion people.”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/02/nicholas-stern-tony-abbott-should-not-prevent-g20-debate-on-climate-change
[Technology cited by Greg Hunt as way to reduce carbon emissions is still ‘immature and unproven,’ science body says]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/03/coal-emission-reduction-technology-still-five-years-off-says-csiro
Someone like Gough wouldn’t be elected leader today. They might get an overwhelming endorsement from the party members but the parliamentary members would vote on factional lines and override the members’ wishes.