A big welcome to the federal polling game to Ipsos, from the Poll Bludger and all who sail in her. GhostWhoVotes relates that Fairfax’s new pollster has opened its federal account with a result well in line with the overall trend, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. The poll targeted 1400 respondents from both landlines and mobile phones. Still awaiting primary votes, but the poll shows 51% opposed to the notion of increasing the GST and reducing income tax, with 41% in support, and 54% opposed to the government’s paid parental scheme, with 40% in support.
UPDATE: The primary votes are 42% Coalition, 37% Labor, 12% Greens and 3% Palmer United. Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is 53-47, as opposed to the 51-49 result from 2013 election preferences. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are tied 41-41 on preferred prime minister, the former rating 42% on approval and 49% on disapproval, and the latter rating 43% and 40%.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): After two relatively good results for the Coalition, the latest fortnightly Morgan result has then down a point to 38.5%, Labor up two to 37.5%, the Greens up half a point to 12.5% and Palmer United down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred result is 54.5-45.5 while previous election preferences is at 53.5-46.5, in both cases up from 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends, from a sample of 3117.
The fact that Labor is not even prepared to make the case to end useless and distortionary expenditures so that the the money can be re-directed to things which strengthen the nation, like bringing chronically under-resourced schools up to an adequate resourcing level, shows how far the ALP has fallen. It doesn’t trust itself to make a case for public goods. These days it is only the Greens who make a robust defence of public education and public health. Labor goes through the motions but it’s heart simply isn’t in it anymore. The inequity in schools funding continues to grow; parents of private school children have been encouraged by both major parties to feel entitled to public subsidy for private schools; both parties think it’s great to use legislation and public funds to create a massive captive market for an inefficient private health insurance industry which weakens public health care by diverting doctors to private facilities. Gough Whitlam and Malcolm Fraser were right: both major parties have let the nation down.
Nicholas
the NBN, NDIS and action on climate change (just for starters) were not only big ticket items, but they were totally consistent with a Whitlamite world view.
Of course, you ignore the bits that don’t suit your argument.
Brandis bunging on the muslim love a little too thick on QandA thus far.
They’re not buying it, the audience. Some derisory laughs at the Team Australia bollox.
I can not forgive Labor’s stance on asylum seekers.
It is inhumane
It is massively expensive
Eventually Australia will be forced to accept these people who will have suffered debilitating psychological damage that our health system will have to deal with
Nicholas
[The fact that Labor is not even prepared to make the case to end useless and distortionary expenditures]
Because expenditure isn’t the problem – revenue is.
[It doesn’t trust itself to make a case for public goods.]
Oh, bollocks.
The BER. Gonski. Health reform.
[These days it is only the Greens who make a robust defence of public education and public health]
That must be in the privacy of their own lounge rooms, because they seem remarkably silent in the public sphere.
[The inequity in schools funding continues to grow..]
Which is exactly what Gonski was tackling…
[both parties think it’s great to use legislation and public funds to create a massive captive market for an inefficient private health insurance industry..]
When Labor tried to tackle this, the Greens blocked them in the Senate.
Criticise Labor by all means, but do it on the basis of fact, not fantasy.
meher baba@398
Why do you equate left wing attitudes with a vow of poverty?
To me it’s more about fairness and a humane and decent society.
Well, just watched the concluding episode of The Honourable Woman, a BBC spy thriller about Israel/Palestine. Superb and satisfying in every way … cast and plot up there with the best of John Le Carre. And Maggie Gylenhaal was quite superb.
Nicholas@401. Let me know when the Greens win majority government on a policy platform of abolishing the private health rebate and negative gearing, and putting CGT on the family home. You’ll certainly need the Tardis to travel thousand years forward in time.
(BTW, you’re probably too young to remember this, but in 1980 your beloved Malcolm Fraser won an election significantly on the basis of a scare campaign which inaccurately portrayed Labor as wanting to tax the family home.)
Having said all that, as an economist I support the idea of abolishing the CGT exemption for owner-occupied housing. I think it’s a far more unhelpful distortion in the housing market then negative gearing.
But it’ll never happen.
Okay, so our demands are:
The Labor party must democratically elect a leader with the bold and independent vision to implement the progressive policies I want, and also win over the rest of the electorate.
billie@404
So you are thrilled at how Morrison runs it?
[I can not forgive Labor’s stance on asylum seekers.
It is inhumane
It is massively expensive
Eventually Australia will be forced to accept these people who will have suffered debilitating psychological damage that our health system will have to deal with]
I agree. To there credit, labor has senior people who will publicly speak against labor policy, but it seems Marles tries to go to the right of morriscum when he can.
the only parties with decent policies here are greens and PUP – and I’m sure the latter will sell that for legislation that benefits mine owners. so there’s only one party of principle to choose from. labor are gutless on this issue and will always feature as low down my electoral card as I can just ahead of the further-to-the-right-parties. The way we are treating refugees is disgusting, and labor’s fear of saying this is disgusting. I am sure if labor had the guts to say ‘adults getting bashed. kids getting raped. government condoning this’ re: the PNG ‘solution’ more people would realise how disgusting this is.
there = their (I hate when I do that)
Newspoll
54-46 2PP
Primaries: Coalition 38, ALP 36, Greens 13, Others 13
Abbott: Satisfied 37, Dissatisfied 52
Shorten: Satisfied 37, Dissatisfied 45
Better PM: Abbott 39, Shorten 38
Oct 31 – Nov 2
1175 sample size
Bemused@406 I don’t equate far left views with poverty. I equate them with totally wrong and often evil Marxist ideologies and outmoded and increasingly marginalized militant trade unionism.
That pretty well sums up the thinking of the members of the hard left sub-faction(s) of the ALP who I know.
I generally can’t abide Clive Hamilton, but he wrote a good Quarterly Essay a few years back on how the “deprivation” thesis of left politics in Australia is completely dead.
The “struggle” of the average modern working Australian is most likely to be the struggle of how to fit all the cars and boat trailers into the four door garage.
The key contemporary issues for workers are things like work-life balance, access to child care, quality of the environment (especially at the local level), etc.
That 2PP is in Labor’s favour.
[ William Bowe
Posted Monday, November 3, 2014 at 9:36 pm | Permalink
The one that can at least make the percentages add to 100 would be a good place to start.
You have to be a sloppy pollster to accept such sloppy maths.
If someone’s rounded numbers are always adding up to 100, they’re doing it by jiggling around with their figures, for the sake of not having so suffer silly comments like this one. It happens to be wrong though.
]
Given the stuff I have read here today this is what I expected. But it is still not right.
You have a finite number of respondent; oh let’s say 1400. Each response is worth 1/1400*100/1 = 1/14 percent.
Now allocate the responses to one of x bins (less than 1400) and try and come up with numbers that don’t add up to 1400.
Now convert the totals to percentages with an accuracy that results the least significant figure that is to the right of where you want to go and is not a 5; round up or down as appropriate. If you come up with an example that does not add to 100 +/- 1/1400, I will bow to your greater knowledge.
You can do it as a floating point processor does; pick a random up or down if the least significant digit is 5.
I will grant you that 1400 respondents is not a good number; but the number of respondents is an item pollster has control over.
There is no excuse.
Wow at Newspoll…
389
The movement to the right has been more to do with a general move to the right in world politics since the late 1970s. The world political pendulum was about as far as it would go left, including in places that had had decades of prosperity, and has swung right since and is now at the rightward end and going to swing to the left. The world political pendulum swung to the left in the 1930s and 40s from the Depression and WWII, then to the right from the 1970s (oil crisis and stagflation, hen continuing through the collapse of Communism) and is now at the point of swinging left with the GFC. This seems to be both as the outer ends of the spectrum are reached, the problems become bigger and more obvious to the majority and because of generational change causing greater questioning of the old order.
We get Newspoll this week as well? That seemed to come around rather quickly.
Now how will The Australan put lipstick on that NewsPoll pig?
Wonder how newscorpse will spin this result?
@420… I’m sure something to do with the fact that Abbott and Shorten have the same satisfaction numbers and Abbott still ahead as PPM.
Morrision is deeply popular within LNP ranks as well as swinging voters for delivering on a key Coalition plank.
He has not delivered any of the nasty hidden surprises that other ministers have dished up — regardless of whether you agree stopping the boats was a good thing or not.
1/14 allocated to 1400 bins and rounded to one place it 0. So it is easy to create an example. But as I said; the pollster picks the number of respondents, so there is no excuse.
meher baba@414
So in the meher baba world view, nothing exists between totalitarian marxism and the political right.
I now see where your confusion arises.
There is a long tradition of democratic socialism of one sort or another pre-dating the Fabians in the UK and going back to Eduard Bernstein or earlier in continental Europe.
Key contemporary issues include those you mention plus better public transport and other services and full employment.
[Now how will The Australan put lipstick on that NewsPoll pig?]
“After courageously calling for Team Australia to embrace necessary tax and welfare reforms, abbot leads shorten on preferred PM”
obvious really
Gough slays ISIL to give Labor a commanding poll lead.
Makes that Fairfas ISPOS poll (that Peter Hartcher did a Sheridan on in their rags today) look like a big outlier.
Ispos may even have an unknown house bias to the LNP for all we know…
Nice work SS!
Bemused it never dawned on me that my previous comment was in any way an endorsement of Morriscum
New thread:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/11/03/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-5/
401
Nicholas
Frankly, defeating the LNP, restoring the ETS, reviving Gonski and repairing the health and higher education budgets, reinstating NDIS and re-booting income growth would do me for a re-elected Labor Government.
Your whinging about Labor reeks of the same reflexive grudge-politics in which the LNP specialise and is calculated to achieve the same results – the defamation of Labor. No-one with any personal experience of the politics of the 70s and 80s could begin to take you seriously.
frednk@424
Sometimes the commissioning media source could be picking them. Also whatever the number of respondents, there can be scaling issues that can interfere with any attempt to pick a suitable figure.
The cost of having numbers always add to 100 is that every now and then each of the numbers is something point 2 or something point 3 and you have to round one of them by point 7.
What is she smoking?
Emma Alberici talking up war between the West and China!?
FFS.