The Australian has published a fresh new poll of state voting intention in Victoria courtesy of Newspoll – conducted entirely from Thursday to Saturday, and not a bi-monthly accumulation of results as is the norm for state Newspolls. The two-party preferred result is 54-46, which is well in the zone of last week’s avalanche of five poll results of between 52-48 and 53-47 (not counting the respondent-allocated Ipsos result). The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. More to follow. HT: James J.
UPDATE: Full results here, including a lot of detail on how respondents rate various issues and who is best to handle them. Labor are generally back to where they were at the 2006 election after slumps in 2010, although an exception is the economy on which the Coalition has a strong lead. The big move on issue salience is water planning, down from 65% to 41% as a “very important” issue, presumably because the steam has gone out of the Murray-Darling controversy. One good bit of news for Denis Napthine is that his personal ratings are substantially improved, his approval rating up six points to 46% and disapproval down two to 41%. Uncommitted ratings are down across the board, with Daniel Andrews gaining four points on both approval and disapproval to reach 36% and 45%, while Napthine’s lead as preferred premier shifts from 41-31 to 47-34.
Coming soon:
• My long-awaited seat-by-seat Victorian election guide will go live tomorrow night (by which I mean Monday). I flatter myself that these are always good value, but this one especially is going to change the way people think about Victorian election guides.
• I guess it’s time I did I poll trend update, so watch this space.
Quibble away about the election guide at a dedicated new thread:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/11/04/victorian-election-guide-2/
Raaraa@44
This is the link he tweeted:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/calculator/?mode=overall&overall=5.6&retiringmps=false
From that link whichever poll you goes to gives three Greens.
If you just go straight to the calculator through ABC elections it is different.
50
The Country Alliance came fourth in Gippsland South (out of 4, they were out polled by both the ALP and the Greens). It was in Shepparton that they came second but because the National got more than 50% of the vote the VEC does not provide a 2CP on the page with the Shepparton results.
As far as I know the VEC did not conduct a 2CP count between the Greens and any other candidate in Prahran and thus there was no chance the Greens getting a 2CP victory in any polling booth last time, however they would likely have won most of the booth 2CPs last time if they had overtaken the ALP because the ALP won most of the booths (the Libs won with the 3 biggest booths and early and postal votes) and the ALP voters seem to preference Greens at the same rate as the Greens preference the ALP (extrapolating from by-elections, including Higgins, where the ALP did not stand and the Greens did).
Observations on the election:
driving down the Nepean Highway today, LNP advertising outnumbered the ALP by 10:1.
On the ABCs Stateline a debate on child protection between the Minister for Comm Services and the Shadow Minister was long on point scoring but short on concrete commitments from either party.
For any bludgers who support Labor and work in the CBD