Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria

Newspoll kicks off the official Victorian election campaign with a fresh new poll result, which puts the Labor lead slightly at the high end of a very narrow range in recent polling.

The Australian has published a fresh new poll of state voting intention in Victoria courtesy of Newspoll – conducted entirely from Thursday to Saturday, and not a bi-monthly accumulation of results as is the norm for state Newspolls. The two-party preferred result is 54-46, which is well in the zone of last week’s avalanche of five poll results of between 52-48 and 53-47 (not counting the respondent-allocated Ipsos result). The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. More to follow. HT: James J.

UPDATE: Full results here, including a lot of detail on how respondents rate various issues and who is best to handle them. Labor are generally back to where they were at the 2006 election after slumps in 2010, although an exception is the economy on which the Coalition has a strong lead. The big move on issue salience is water planning, down from 65% to 41% as a “very important” issue, presumably because the steam has gone out of the Murray-Darling controversy. One good bit of news for Denis Napthine is that his personal ratings are substantially improved, his approval rating up six points to 46% and disapproval down two to 41%. Uncommitted ratings are down across the board, with Daniel Andrews gaining four points on both approval and disapproval to reach 36% and 45%, while Napthine’s lead as preferred premier shifts from 41-31 to 47-34.

Coming soon:

• My long-awaited seat-by-seat Victorian election guide will go live tomorrow night (by which I mean Monday). I flatter myself that these are always good value, but this one especially is going to change the way people think about Victorian election guides.

• I guess it’s time I did I poll trend update, so watch this space.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

55 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. 50

    The Country Alliance came fourth in Gippsland South (out of 4, they were out polled by both the ALP and the Greens). It was in Shepparton that they came second but because the National got more than 50% of the vote the VEC does not provide a 2CP on the page with the Shepparton results.

    As far as I know the VEC did not conduct a 2CP count between the Greens and any other candidate in Prahran and thus there was no chance the Greens getting a 2CP victory in any polling booth last time, however they would likely have won most of the booth 2CPs last time if they had overtaken the ALP because the ALP won most of the booths (the Libs won with the 3 biggest booths and early and postal votes) and the ALP voters seem to preference Greens at the same rate as the Greens preference the ALP (extrapolating from by-elections, including Higgins, where the ALP did not stand and the Greens did).

  2. Observations on the election:

    driving down the Nepean Highway today, LNP advertising outnumbered the ALP by 10:1.

    On the ABCs Stateline a debate on child protection between the Minister for Comm Services and the Shadow Minister was long on point scoring but short on concrete commitments from either party.

  3. For any bludgers who support Labor and work in the CBD

    [bemused,

    It all happens November 29. Can you help us out before then?

    Over the next three weeks, we’re doing everything we can to encourage people to speak up and vote against the Napthine Liberal government’s cuts.

    And that includes making sure that people working in the city have somewhere convenient they can get involved.

    Starting this week, we’re holding a phone bank on William Street in the CBD every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday night until the election.

    Can I count on you to come along and make 30 phone calls one night this week to support Labor?

    What: City workers’ phonebank for Labor
    When: 6pm-8.30pm Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday evenings
    Where: 45 William Street, CBD
    What to bring: A laptop or tablet if you can!
    RSVP: Please click here and let us know if you’re coming

    Don’t worry if you’ve never done it before. We’ll show you everything you need to know to make a phone call for Labor.

    Every call you make can convince a voter in a marginal seat why Labor offers a better alternative than the Liberals.

    On November 29, that could mean the difference between this Liberal government and a Labor government that will put people first.

    Yours sincerely,

    Stephen Donnelly
    Assistant State Secretary

    Lead – Connect – Respect

    P.S. Feel free to bring a friend!]

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