The Australian has published a fresh new poll of state voting intention in Victoria courtesy of Newspoll – conducted entirely from Thursday to Saturday, and not a bi-monthly accumulation of results as is the norm for state Newspolls. The two-party preferred result is 54-46, which is well in the zone of last week’s avalanche of five poll results of between 52-48 and 53-47 (not counting the respondent-allocated Ipsos result). The primary votes are 39% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. More to follow. HT: James J.
UPDATE: Full results here, including a lot of detail on how respondents rate various issues and who is best to handle them. Labor are generally back to where they were at the 2006 election after slumps in 2010, although an exception is the economy on which the Coalition has a strong lead. The big move on issue salience is water planning, down from 65% to 41% as a “very important” issue, presumably because the steam has gone out of the Murray-Darling controversy. One good bit of news for Denis Napthine is that his personal ratings are substantially improved, his approval rating up six points to 46% and disapproval down two to 41%. Uncommitted ratings are down across the board, with Daniel Andrews gaining four points on both approval and disapproval to reach 36% and 45%, while Napthine’s lead as preferred premier shifts from 41-31 to 47-34.
Coming soon:
• My long-awaited seat-by-seat Victorian election guide will go live tomorrow night (by which I mean Monday). I flatter myself that these are always good value, but this one especially is going to change the way people think about Victorian election guides.
• I guess it’s time I did I poll trend update, so watch this space.
As I wuz sayin’ over at the Commonwealth bar: Ipsos looks only mildly roguish now.
I really dont get why some still think Napthine is in with a shot. Guess its just good old-fashioned reserve.
Must be the coffin on the nail. I can’t see a comeback unless Andrews shoot a baby or something.
Still a while to go before I can play with the Legislative Council calculator.
Maybe I’ll start being less pessimistic about the outcome in Vic. I still feel Andrews hasn’t done enough to be seen as premier and don’t sense people have baseball bats out for Napthine. the final poll will be much much closer than this and all the other polls suggest. Unlike the federal party, I don’t get the sense the Vic ALP is bristling with talent – but at least they’ll have Bracks, Brumby, Thwaites and Cain to advise them.
Abbott must realise vic is a lost cause for him – maybe the libs think the only way they can hold federal seats in vic is to have a state labot gov for the Hun to beat up every day.
I hope andrews does better than I feel he might.
hopefully the greens get BoP and vic can become a world leader on progressive and environmental policies.
Hopefully the libs rip themselves to shreds. if they give Matthew Guy the leadership, the ALP should declare a royal commission into the Ventnor rezoning scandal – he cost the vic taxpayers over $2 million is hush money paid to the mates/donors whose land he tried to rezone against all planning advice. he should be out of parliament over that.
Table of the Newspoll
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/11/02/1227110/225132-141103newspoll.pdf
Sample size was 1106
Some questions on issues as well
SF @3
A bit hard to say. A lot of Victorians just doesn’t know Andrews at all, let alone know him well enough. It looks more like the people are ready to dump the Coalition than they are to elect Labor.
Remember that in 2013, Rudd had the upper hand against Abbott up to the last moment, but the people were already keen on dropping Labor.
I do think the Labor hasn’t targeted much of Matthew Guy, who I think already has enough hatred from some Victorians.
Interesting to see that the votes are going back to the major parties – votes for Greens and Others down from 28 to 20.
[I still feel Andrews hasn’t done enough to be seen as premier and don’t sense people have baseball bats out for Napthine.]
They don’t have BBs out for Napthine, but they didn’t vote for him either, nor is he a commanding presence as Premier.
More importantly they didn’t have BBs out for the ALP at the last election (although they didn’t really like that Brumby) so shifting back won’t be a stretch.
7
It really does look like the last election was the election to loose for the ALP.
blackburnpseph@6
Or perhaps Newspoll have been suitably chastised about their recent run of excessive Greens/Others figures. 🙂
lefty e@1
The days tick by without the Polls shifting and the Libs seem incapable of developing any sort of compelling narrative (even a three word one). The hearld-sun as been in full force support of the Libs for months and can’t kick it up a gear. Andrews is fairly articulate and should perform well against Napthine in the campaign …..
… but i still think the result will be close.
Yet, I still expect the polls
Remember how in his previous incarnation as Opp Leader, Napthine was a failure too? Was he really the best the Libs could find?
The biggest problem for Dennis Napthine will be to say with a straight face, “I stand on my record”.
He can blast Labor’s decisions (e.g. the desalt plant). He can promise anything. But don’t look at that space in between!
Some people smiled at Andrews when he was Health Minister. But now his performance looks pretty good by comparison. The Libs promised 600-800 new hospital beds, for instance.. But it is said that nobody can find more than 43 (or something like that).
[if they give Matthew Guy the leadership, the ALP should declare a royal commission into the Ventnor rezoning scandal – he cost the vic taxpayers over $2 million is hush money paid to the mates/donors whose land he tried to rezone against all planning advice. he should be out of parliament over that.]
Absolutely – plus this guy has borked up everything he’s touched in a way that will screw Melbourne for 50 years to come. Failed to reserve adequate parkland in major inner urban development sites, then realised too late, and to get it back had to agree to massive height increases.
He’s a complete and utter disaster and has to be taken down.
Now these idiots in their desperation want to literally give away Fed SQ East.
[Maybe I’ll start being less pessimistic about the outcome in Vic. I still feel Andrews hasn’t done enough to be seen as premier and don’t sense people have baseball bats out for Napthine.]
If it puts your mind at ease, the ALP don’t have great work ahead of them in that regard, seeing that a net gain of two seats will give them government. So, really, they’re in if they can just get a tiny fraction of those who voted for/preferenced the Coalition last time to change their vote to Labor – very likely, considering polling has not been friendly to the Coalition.
Of course, Labor will try to win as many seats as possible but the line they need to cross to get into government is just mere inches away, so baseball bats are not necessary.
Carey Moore – in the past, oppositions that have narrowly scraped in in Victoria have been returned with large majorities at the next election. I think many of the swinging voters are undecided, and I still fear they’ll vote for the status quo. However, there are few held by a margin of <1% that labor should take, so hopefully even the forces of Rupert cannot save the LNP. I hope labor gets courageous in setting a progressive agenda. They're yet to even say 'Vote for us and we will stop abbott upping the GST' (although in truth, the LNP could simply change the legislation requiring the sates to agree to GST hikes if palmer let them).
SF, you’re right, sophomore surges can and do happen. Certainly don’t put your feet up and take the result for granted, it’s just that, as things stand (i.e. a government which cannot afford to lose any seats is badly lagging in the polls), I know which side has the advantage here.
Here’s a nice blog site that gives context to the promises surrounding level crossing upgrades. Includes a list of sites which have been prioritised. Apparently, the Libs are including closures of level crossings that don’t actually exist.
http://www.danielbowen.com/2014/09/24/level-crossing-list/
[Carey Moore – in the past, oppositions that have narrowly scraped in in Victoria have been returned with large majorities at the next election.]
By “in the past” you mean “in 1999” given that none of the changes of government in 1992, 1982, 1955 or 1952 were ‘narrow scrapes’. It’s fairly obviously nonsense to generalise from a single event in 1999 to some kind of general behaviour of the electorate. Neither Baillieu nor Napthine are a patch on Bracks.
1999 for the narrow scrape; 2002 for the comfortably returned of course.
Martin B – fair point. I feel people disliked Brumby more than they currently dislike Napthine, but they voted for Baillieu and he was a dud, so they may go back to the party of natural government in Vic. I just wish Andrews had a tad more charisma/spark/ inspiration – he’s Bracks without any charm.
The first term of the Bracks government was relatively debacle free, the Commonwealth Government was of a different strip to the state government (the last time Victoria voted for a Commonwealth government of the same stripe to the Commonwealth government was 1996, it was only 4 weeks after the defeat of the previous government and Howard had a proper honeymoon) and the previous was 1988 (although looking at the period 1952-96 (from the start of the majority government era to the election before Bracks`s victory); 1952 1992, 1982 and 1973 are the only different stripe victories out of 15).
The election of the Bracks Government marked a change in the willingness of Victorian voters to vote out a government in a close election when it still had reasonable support rather than give them one last term. The Current Victorian electorate would not have re-elected the Coalition in 1979 or the ALP in 1988.
Labor in “Hush money scandal” as they make election promise to help entertainment venues reduce noise.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/victorian-state-election-late-october.html
Victorian State Election: Late October Polls And Seat Model
This is a first run of my Victorian state election seat modelling methods, which will become more complex when we see some seat polls. I’m also still fiddling with some of the parameters, which may change.
I am currently aggregating the 2PP at 52.6 to ALP.
I am currently projecting that that 2PP, if it happened on election day, would result in a seat breakdown of about 48-40-0.
The article comments on the ABC calculator’s latest nonsense in which no matter what poll you plug in, three seats are projected to the Greens. They do have chances in some seats but at present there is no polling evidence to back that they are all that likely to win any given one. Of course a Liberal decision not to preference against them would change that.
Bracks certainly wasnt seen as charismatic prior to the 99 election. He was barely known, much like Andrews now.
Ah, but people did know he wasn’t Brumby 😉
[The article comments on the ABC calculator’s latest nonsense in which no matter what poll you plug in, three seats are projected to the Greens. They do have chances in some seats but at present there is no polling evidence to back that they are all that likely to win any given one. Of course a Liberal decision not to preference against them would change that.]
The model must default to Libs preferencing Greens, which seems considerably less likely than more but would come to that conclusion.
If the Coalition preference the Greens ahead of Labor in any seat or upper house region, it will be the clearest signal that they know they are going to lose. They will just be hoping to create some mischief for a Labor Government.
“Après moi, le déluge” – Louis XV (king of France 1715-1774)
(After me, the flood)
Rossmore – I just put my Tea Party (tinfoil) hat on and dod the ABC vote Compass (imagining Obama as Andrews and Romney as Napthine because I couldn’t think of any other surrogate!). I just rated the Greens at zero.
My position on the graph was 12.5 little squares to the economic right, and 15.5 squares to the social conservative.
Fun times after tomorrow when the republicans probably take control of the Senate.
Freudian slip last night calling this the Argand plane – that would imply that economics are “real” and social values “imaginary”. (inner maths nerd surfacing)
Counterpunch looks at the way the destruction of the Iraqi nation and all the problems now arising were the product of the US neo-cons and the zionists who all wished for the destruction of Iraqi…with no thought to the consequences ..after 2003..which we now inherit in the M East
______________________
The writer recalls some old names,Rice,Wolfowitz,Bolton, and Rumsfeld,Cheneey and aa host of vicious murderers…all now living richly in a well-endowed retirement..and no thought of any trisl for their war crimes…Hitler should have been so lucky ..and Netanyahu who is never to face a court …,still wants a new war against Iran
Counterpunch on Iraqi war
_—– and the aftermath
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/10/31/the-gloating-of-the-neocons/
29 & 30
This is a Victorian state tread. Foreign affairs is not a state issue.
Rocket Rocket@27
I’d agree with that, preferencing the Greens would be the Libs farting as they leave the elevator.
GG,
That’s a good link, thank-you. I’ve been wondering how all these level crossing promises would actually be funded and how many had already been planned or funded. E.g. The two Bell St and Blackburn Road crossings were going to be removed regardless of who was in office
This stems mainly from curiosity over the inclusion of Maroondah Hwy, Lilydale which isn’t really that dangerous in the grand scheme of things (that being in the context of all level crossings being somewhat dangerous, time consuming and inefficient). I wonder, if it goes ahead, if they’ll use the opportunity to duplicate the rail line between Mooroolbark and Lilydale.
Martin B@26
If it did default to that and was done well then there would be a range of Green win values depending on the size of the Green vote in various polls. For instance if the Green vote is really 17-18 and the Libs preferenced them then they’d probably get four.
Of course we don’t yet know what the Libs will do; if they do preference the Greens I’ll remodel those seats accordingly.
Sustainable future@15
While, as discussed above there’s only the one Vic example, there are other examples around of the same thing – Carr, Beattie, Court etc. Difference is that all of them went to re-election with the opposite party in power federally. Napthine doesn’t have that on his side.
The other pertinent distinction is that Bracks and Carr in particular negotiated their minority/wafer-thin majority parliaments skillfully. Baillieu/Napthine have been a shambles.
36
The other minority first term governments have not been a result of a defection from the government mid-term.
A new federal Morgan poll is out, Vic at 60.5%, highest in 5 months from Morgan federally.
Yes its federal so doesnt directly correlate, but a recent poll said about half of peoples state voting intentions are influence by federal issues.
Its a good sign for the ALP in the state election. I dont think there will be a “narrowing” myself, cant see what the LNP might be looking forward to.
Cant believe the ABC has allowed ssome blatantly hostile to Islam tweets through on Q and A tonight.
Yes to both the above. Shaw has been an especially difficult crossbencher to deal with but ultimately it is the Liberals who preselected him and they have to wear it. Many other governments have hung by a single seat without anyone making such a problem of themselves.
#40 was a me-too to #36 and #37, not that I have any trouble with #38 or #39 either. Somehow failed to notice I hadn’t refreshed.
Conservatives out to $5.5 with 3 and 1/2 weeks to go.
http://sports.betfair.com/
Just starting to see bits and pieces of Andrews appearing in the Media.
He comes across as honest, likable, articulate and a bit of a dork. Given he’s coming off a low base in terms of his profile, so he’ll probably benefit from the increased exposure during the campaign.
In any of the custom swings in Antony Green’s calculators, I’m not seeing any Greens seats. How are you guys getting it?
the fact of the matter is, for the last 2-3 years all polls have consistently said that Labor is ahead. The trend seems to well entrenched. Do not be surprised to see a 55-45 or even bigger margin on election day, this is exactly in line with all recent trends: no more, no less.
The Prahran guide is a disappointment.
It has the Greens candidate`s name but no photo and no mention of the fact it is, at least potentially, a 3-way race.
The status of Euroa and Eildon as 3-way contests are mentioned in their profiles, despite Eildon being a less of a chance for the Nats than Prahran for the Greens.
Tom,
Well, the Gembrook guide refers to a place called “Launching Pad” (presumably Launching Place) being transferred to Eildon and the Ringwood, Bayswater and Croydon guides appear to lack a 2011 Census overview of the electorate. Antony is only human, and perhaps he disagrees that a Green victory is likely.
47
I am not talking about Antony`s guide. I am talking about William`s guide.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/vic2014
also 47
I did not say a Green victory was likely, just that it was possible and being aimed for.
Ah, thanks. William snuck it up while I wasn’t looking. Very snazzy. I like the maps in particular.
Also, I think William (not that I wish to speak for Him) has only done them for seats which achieved a Green vs ALP TPP in 2010. He doesn’t appear to have done the same for seats in which Independents or Country Alliance came ahead of Labor in seats such as the two Gippsland seats, even though Labor doesn’t even have a candidate for either (not that I’m saying that’s unreasonable considering how much the boundaries have changed and the uncertainty over what CA really is as a political force). Also, unlike the Nationals, Liberal and Labor in Euroa and Eildon, the Greens didn’t win a 2CP figure in any booth in Prahran.
I couldn’t really comment on how much resources the Greens are putting into individual electorates as that is a matter for them, and I think it’s a bit much to ask William to do so from the West Coast. I happen to know that Labor is putting a lot more resources into Warrandyte than they have in decades, doesn’t mean they’re at all likely to even come close to winning it. So based on the Green PV in Prahran you could just as reasonably include Footscray or Pascoe Vale or even Monbulk if you felt like it. Not only that but there are booths in Eildon (and Monbulk? It might be Ferntree Gully, anyway, Belgrave/Tecoma booths) where the Greens come second ahead of Labor or the Coalition.
All that not withstanding, it would be fascinating to see some of the breakdowns.