Fairfax-Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The debut federal poll from Fairfax’s new pollster turns in an encouragingly conventional result.

A big welcome to the federal polling game to Ipsos, from the Poll Bludger and all who sail in her. GhostWhoVotes relates that Fairfax’s new pollster has opened its federal account with a result well in line with the overall trend, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. The poll targeted 1400 respondents from both landlines and mobile phones. Still awaiting primary votes, but the poll shows 51% opposed to the notion of increasing the GST and reducing income tax, with 41% in support, and 54% opposed to the government’s paid parental scheme, with 40% in support.

UPDATE: The primary votes are 42% Coalition, 37% Labor, 12% Greens and 3% Palmer United. Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is 53-47, as opposed to the 51-49 result from 2013 election preferences. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are tied 41-41 on preferred prime minister, the former rating 42% on approval and 49% on disapproval, and the latter rating 43% and 40%.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): After two relatively good results for the Coalition, the latest fortnightly Morgan result has then down a point to 38.5%, Labor up two to 37.5%, the Greens up half a point to 12.5% and Palmer United down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred result is 54.5-45.5 while previous election preferences is at 53.5-46.5, in both cases up from 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends, from a sample of 3117.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

434 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. [but the poll shows 51% opposed to the notion of increasing the GST and reducing income tax, with 41% in support,]


    Speak of the devil, even more support for my case against zoomster’s view!

  2. Justice Crennan being farewelled from the High Court on 14 November.

    George Brandis’ opportunity for self-appointment looms….

  3. I sat through some of Craig Thomson’s hearing in the magistrates court and was surprised at the sins being read onto the court record for the express purpose of allowing the Australian to run their smear campaign complete with details not mentioned in court. The magistrate had repeatedly questioned their relevance of the details in law.

    Stoljar’s summing up struck me as he said the legally correct thing at the front that there is no evidence of Gillard’s wrong doing and at the end provided the clause that allows the media to continue the smear.

    How many people are aware that the leader of the smear campaign, fired shock jock MIke Smith has lived in Kathy Jacksons granny flat for over 2 years. It seems that his marriage that he invited all those travel rorting politicians to is over

  4. I’m not sure what you think zoomster’s view is, ML.

    I don’t think the GST is ‘popular’. I think that, in the specific case of the 1998 election, it was the only thing that saved Howard, because it distracted attention from his previous failings.

    Your contention was that it showed he was brave. (I note you seem to have given up on that). Mine is it proves he was desperate.

  5. William

    If only ML would take a look at “yiking” in the urban dictionary she would never again “yike”.

    I told her this once, but clearly she did not follow up.

  6. [Copenhagen: After a rocky, sometimes controversial six years, climate experts have settled on their message to the world’s governments: climate change can and must be stopped but the window of opportunity is closing fast.

    In Copenhagen on Sunday, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced its final report before next year’s summit in Paris where a new global agreement on climate is due to be hammered out.]


  7. [George Brandis’ opportunity for self-appointment looms….]

    Any tidbits on what the legal fraternity might be thinking as to an appointment, shellbell?

  8. William

    It will be interesting to see what kind of bias (if any) you detect in this new poll when we have had a few more of them.

  9. Billie

    Strolljar said that JG received “certain funds” from Wilson.

    Tonight on one channel in the news, the story added “in regard to her home renovations”.

    Stolljar’s wink and nod to the media had been taken up. And so the crap still retains breath.

  10. William #8 a pineapple works better.

    I’m actually encouraged by the GST result. The no vote is higher than I thought it would be. You can build support from that base with a logical and well presented case.

  11. [
    William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Nielsen closed its Australian polling operation on its own initiative.
    Thanks; no doubt cost but not fairfax.

  12. Is it the twerking reference? That certainly wasn’t my usage of the term!

    If it is banned, then I will…sadly…..desist.

  13. [
    #Ipsos Poll Increasing GST & reducing income tax: Support 41 Oppose 52 #auspol]

    I would like to see the question. Is it:

    Do you support increasing the GST?
    Or, do you support increasing the GST and reducing income tax?

    May be not a good start for IPSOS. They could have asked:

    Commonwealth revenue is tanking, something needs to be done. Do you support:

    A) Increasing the GST
    B) Removing negative gearing
    C) extending capital gains to the family home, and removing Capital Gains tax concessions
    D) Removing superannuation concessions for high income earners
    E) restoring Carbon and mining taxes
    F) Increasing company tax for Super Profits

  14. [
    #Ipsos Poll Govt’s paid parental leave scheme: Support 40 Oppose 54 #auspol]

    The IPSOS poll looks like they have a dodgy sample if this PPL result is accurate.

    Abbott’s PPL policy is universally considered to be a stinker.

  15. shellbell:

    Hmm. I thought lawyers were renowned for their love of gossip, most especially when it involved one of their own mob. 🙂

  16. [
    Attorney-General describes statement as “very damning” while PM holds off commenting.
    With the defamation ongoing, at some point Gillard has got to be able to make a bucket load of money out of this.

  17. Given the High Court’s focus on refugee claims, why not just appoint someone from the Refugee Tribunal…? Or maybe wheel out Burnside or someone other ageing “refugee advocate” QC?

    Well, SHY is not AG — so my above suggestions may not get up…

  18. Why not an opt-in arrangement for an increased GST?

    David and Mod Lib and friends can pay 15% on their goods and services and we can keep paying 10%!

  19. 12 month time Darren I will be eligible to live off my government pension and associated benefits so I will probably get GST relief.

  20. [
    Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 10:00 pm | PERMALINK
    William Bowe@8
    ML, the next time you say “YIKES!!!” in response to fuck-all, I shall insert a large garden gnome in you.
    How about you auction off the right to do that? :evil:]

    An auction whose proceeds could go to a charity of William’s choosing.

    Good idea, Bemused.

    PB has been famous for its generosity in years gone past, so such an auction would be a worthwhile endevour.

  21. [36
    Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 10:05 pm | PERMALINK
    No worries….as long as I get to opt out of supporting 850k people being on disability pensions?]

    Because they committed bad deeds in a previous life and therefore deserve to be disabled?

    Appalling Liberal logic.

  22. [ William Bowe@8
    ML, the next time you say “YIKES!!!” in response to fuck-all, I shall insert a large garden gnome in you.
    How about you auction off the right to do that? 👿 ]

    As long as its a large Gnome WITH the rough end of the pineapple in its hand then i’ll bid for that!!

  23. I thought she was retiring having reached 70.

    Next is Hayne who turns 70 next year – another Victorian.

    I’ve read/heard it suggested that FC Justice Middleton may fill one of the Victorian vacancies.

    Don’t know anything of his background.

  24. I would dearly love to post something to many of these comments, but you will be pleased to know that I can’t, so I won’t!

  25. Gotta say it bothers me somewhat to think of ML as a vessel just waiting to be filled by a large garden gnome, but stranger things have happened here.

  26. Things not going so well for the Red Tories in Scotland in polls for next Mays GE for Westminster:

    The SNP on 52%, Slab on 23% … they would lose 37 of their 41 seats!!

    [….a new poll from Mori today has the SNP on 52% and Labour on 23%, meaning only four Labour MPs would survive, and the SNP would have 54.]

    And in another poll, a majority of Scots now support Independence (6 weeks too late)


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