Fairfax-Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The debut federal poll from Fairfax’s new pollster turns in an encouragingly conventional result.

A big welcome to the federal polling game to Ipsos, from the Poll Bludger and all who sail in her. GhostWhoVotes relates that Fairfax’s new pollster has opened its federal account with a result well in line with the overall trend, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. The poll targeted 1400 respondents from both landlines and mobile phones. Still awaiting primary votes, but the poll shows 51% opposed to the notion of increasing the GST and reducing income tax, with 41% in support, and 54% opposed to the government’s paid parental scheme, with 40% in support.

UPDATE: The primary votes are 42% Coalition, 37% Labor, 12% Greens and 3% Palmer United. Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is 53-47, as opposed to the 51-49 result from 2013 election preferences. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are tied 41-41 on preferred prime minister, the former rating 42% on approval and 49% on disapproval, and the latter rating 43% and 40%.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): After two relatively good results for the Coalition, the latest fortnightly Morgan result has then down a point to 38.5%, Labor up two to 37.5%, the Greens up half a point to 12.5% and Palmer United down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred result is 54.5-45.5 while previous election preferences is at 53.5-46.5, in both cases up from 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends, from a sample of 3117.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

434 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. davidw

    [ML it appears lots of PB’ers wish to do nasty things to you :)]

    Doing nasty things to tories should be an Olympic Sport!!

  2. Senator Brandeis apparently regards Mr Stoljar’s submissions relating to Ms Gillard as “damning”. But if you really want to read damning comments, you need only look at the ruling of the International Court of Justice on the recent Australia v. Timor case, specifically noting the value not placed by the Court on the undertakings given by the Senator.

  3. [William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 9:39 pm | PERMALINK
    ML, the next time you say “YIKES!!!” in response to fuck-all, I shall insert a large garden gnome in you.]

    I suspect William was inspired by this image?

    Don’t click if you support ML’s right to say YIKES randomly, or a otherwise of prudish persuasion

  4. There is no doubt that a house bias adjustment of 1.25% to the LNP should be made for Ipsos.

    (wink)

    I still contend it is illogical for Bludger Track to be worse for Labor than the worst poll. Yes, I understand the maths and ‘logic’, but it’s a case of maths over-riding logic.

  7. The Timor cases, incidentally, have now gone back into negotiations between the parties. Since the Timorese were on a bit of a roll after their previous win, one can’t help getting the feeling that the latest round of talks might be a strategy to save Senator Brandeis further humiliation in court. Watch that space.

  8. [Doing nasty things to tories should be an Olympic Sport!!]

    Not sure that something done does for pleasure can be considered a sport.

    Sounds more like a hobby, pastime or even fetish. 👿 😆

  9. Pedant

    [The Timor cases, incidentally, have now gone back into negotiations between the parties. Since the Timorese were on a bit of a roll after their previous win, one can’t help getting the feeling that the latest round of talks might be a strategy to save Senator Brandeis further humiliation in court. Watch that space.]

    I thought the same thing when it was reported

  11. back on topic, this tweet from a HeraldSun journo regarding the embattled Napthine government

    [Tom Minear ‏@tminear 2m2 minutes ago
    More bad news coming for the Coalition in tomorrow’s @australian Newspoll #springst]

  14. [62
    CTar1

    I’m just sick of “YIKES” that the Commenter inserts all the time for not much reason.

    Very Yankee.]

    and disturbingly infantile…

  16. Seriously ML, the Yikes! schtick falls on a line joining the disingenuous and self-serving with the fatuous and twee.

    William is doing you a favour as well as making this place measurably more pleasant.

  18. I couldn’t care less about the word “Yikes” and I suspect William’s objection was the poster making the statement in every thread, without cause or context.

    If the headline of this thread was showing the Coalition with a lead, or the Labor lead blowing out to a huge amount, I’d be yelling “Yikes!” too.

  19. I greatly appreciate all the helpful suggestions being provided to assist with (I presume) my chronic constipation. However, the real joy from tonight has to be one of the candidates works I have been marking, referencing my own work! I don’t know whether this was sucking up or not, but it worked!
    🙂

  27. I saw a story on Channel Nine Brisbane tonight about bracket creep being likely to net the federal government an extra $20 billion in income tax revenue over the next four years. The tone of the presenter, reporter and interviewees implied that this is dirty pool. There was lots of talk of this extra money going into “government coffers”. There was no mention of public goods.

  29. Tom,

    Perhaps there’s not that much to say ATM. I’m involved with the Croydon ALP campaign and don’t have anything particularly interesting to add. I’ve offered to scrutineer at one of the bigger booths just for the experience, though.

  32. That Victorian Newspoll result offers no real good news for the govt, and in a week where Abbott decided to insert himself into the Vic campaign. Presumably there’ll be more of this insertion to come.

    As I said the other day, Napthine must be thinking with supposed friends like Abbott, who needs enemies.

  34. [Presumably there’ll be more of this insertion to come.]

    Im presuming thats the end of any insertions actually. Got it out of the way early.

  37. [77
    Nicholas

    I saw a story on Channel Nine Brisbane tonight about bracket creep being likely to net the federal government an extra $20 billion in income tax revenue over the next four years. The tone of the presenter, reporter and interviewees implied that this is dirty pool. There was lots of talk of this extra money going into “government coffers”. There was no mention of public goods.]

    Because of the placement of the steps in the income tax scales, the effects of bracket creep will be felt most by those on median-average incomes rather than by those on higher incomes. At least, this will be the case providing nominal incomes grow at the usual rate – around 5% pa. Since this growth has been very weak, bracket creep may not yield so much extra revenue. This would be a drag on revenue, but an even bigger drag on households, as it implies their real disposable incomes will be under continued pressure.

  40. DL @30

    [Why not an opt-in arrangement for an increased GST?]

    [David and Mod Lib and friends can pay 15% on their goods and services and we can keep paying 10%!]

    And perhaps the government should pay me so that I don’t spend.

    Oh wait, was an increased GST supposed to discourage me from spending or not? I wonder if retailers will start hitting back that increased GST will decrease spending.

  41. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-personal-approval-up-but-major-policies-unpopular-fairfax-ipsos-poll-20141102-11fraj.html
    [Tony Abbott’s personal approval up, but major policies unpopular: Fairfax Ipsos poll
    November 2, 2014 – 11:45PM
    James Massola and Heath Aston

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s personal approval has surged with voters over the past three months, while the Coalition has also clawed back support but still narrowly trails Labor in the two-party preferred vote.

    The first Fairfax Ipsos nationwide poll shows Mr Abbott and opposition leader Bill Shorten are now tied as preferred prime minister, but, worryingly for the government, three key planks of its policy reform agenda are deeply unpopular with voters.]

  42. LL @91

    All I can think of looking at the cartoon from the article is:

    “In Beirut, plane fly overhead, drop bomb.”

    Guess where from?

  46. Seemingly, there has been little thought given to the effect that changes to the incidence or rate of GST might have on consumer behaviour.

    Considering real per capita disposable income has been under pressure since 2011 and that this trend is likely to intensify in the next couple of years, it’s possible that an increase in the tax could shock consumption spending and, in turn, cause a spike in unemployment. The long deflationary cycle in Japan in the 1990s was at least partly attributable to increases in consumption taxes – increases that provoked falls in spending by households.

    The introduction of the GST was accompanied by the abolition of some other taxes and coincided with a rise in the exchange rate, both of which tended to offset the effect of the tax on real household incomes. These offsets will likely not apply to any extended or increased GST.

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