Fairfax-Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The debut federal poll from Fairfax’s new pollster turns in an encouragingly conventional result.

A big welcome to the federal polling game to Ipsos, from the Poll Bludger and all who sail in her. GhostWhoVotes relates that Fairfax’s new pollster has opened its federal account with a result well in line with the overall trend, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. The poll targeted 1400 respondents from both landlines and mobile phones. Still awaiting primary votes, but the poll shows 51% opposed to the notion of increasing the GST and reducing income tax, with 41% in support, and 54% opposed to the government’s paid parental scheme, with 40% in support.

UPDATE: The primary votes are 42% Coalition, 37% Labor, 12% Greens and 3% Palmer United. Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is 53-47, as opposed to the 51-49 result from 2013 election preferences. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are tied 41-41 on preferred prime minister, the former rating 42% on approval and 49% on disapproval, and the latter rating 43% and 40%.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): After two relatively good results for the Coalition, the latest fortnightly Morgan result has then down a point to 38.5%, Labor up two to 37.5%, the Greens up half a point to 12.5% and Palmer United down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred result is 54.5-45.5 while previous election preferences is at 53.5-46.5, in both cases up from 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends, from a sample of 3117.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

434 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  6. Coalition 42 + (Greens 12 * 17.0% = 2.0%) + (Palmer 3 * 53.7% = 1.6%) + (Others 6 * 53.0%) = 51.2. Although I’m getting to 6% others by squaring off the remainder from 100 – if you make it 7%, it nudges down to 51.1.

  7. I did it this way.

    ALP 37
    Greens 12*83=9.96
    PUP 3*46=1.38
    Other 7*47=3.29
    Allowing for roundings and sig figs that’s 37+9.9+1.4+3.3=51.7. say around 51.5.

    OK, I presume I’m wrong [besides 9.96=9.9].
    How?

  8. The problem is that you’re treating Ipsos’s primary vote numbers as if they add up to 100, when they actually add up to 101. Imagine if you’d come at it from the other way:

    L-NP 42
    Greens 12*17=2.04
    PUP 3*54=1.62
    Other 7*53=3.71

    That gives you 49.4 to match the 51.6 you’ve just given to Labor – in other words, a 2PP result that adds up to 101 instead of 100.

  14. Goldman Sachs Cuts Thermal Coal Forecast Amid Cheap China Supply
    Thermal coal prices in Asia have limited scope to rebound from current levels as China shifts its economy away from energy-intensive growth and reduces imports of the fuel, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

    The bank cut its forecasts for power-station coal at the Australian port of Newcastle, a benchmark in Asia, by 12 percent to $69 a metric ton in 2015, analysts including Christian Lelong wrote in an e-mailed report today.

    Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were lowered by 10 percent and 9 percent respectively. The fuel cost $63.05 a ton as of Oct. 24 and has averaged $71.87 this year, according to data from IHS McCloskey.

    China, which accounted for 79 percent of the growth in global consumption since 2000, is cutting coal imports amid domestic prices near the lowest in seven years and an import tariff of as much as 6 percent that resumed on Oct. 15. The government asked utilities and miners to reduce overseas purchases by 40 million tons from September to December, China Coal Transport and Distribution Association said Sept. 16.]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-31/goldman-sachs-cuts-thermal-coal-forecast-amid-cheap-china-supply.html

  17. On the 2PP thing, I get around the sum-to-101 thing by simply multiplying everything by 100/101; the only other difference is that I add 0.14 to ALP for leakage from three-cornered contests.

  22. Well I will be… Channel Nein early news is going overboard with the latest Poll News.

    The only thing they keep repeating is that Abbotts popularity has surged. Crikey I just heard the resident Bimbo Newsreader say that his popularity has surged further since he said he was going to shirtfront Putin.

    Nothing else about polling has been mentioned – zilch. Just the surge.

    Did I miss something in the other Poll reporting.

  23. Most of the United States does not have cheap, super fast Internet connections. There exists in the United States the money and the technical ability to build fiber optic networks everywhere. The government could borrow the required money very cheaply. But the cable companies are too cheap to pay for it AND they lobby Congress to ensure that government funds cannot be used to build it.

    http://www.vox.com/2014/10/31/7137457/broadband-speed-chattanooga-kansas-city-lafayette

  24. Morning all, and welcome Ipsos. Not only is the overall result interesting, but also the issue questions. Why does a government persist in introducing an expensive new spending measure (PPL for rich people) when it says it is in debt and the measure is unpopular with most people?

    This well written excellent article highlights the real problems that need fixing, economically – housing affordability and what it is doing to the young and the poor.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-31/millane-our-economic-policies-are-stuck-in-old-australia/5856334

    Failure to fix/end negative gearing remains the greatest policy failure of the Howard, Rudd and Gillard governments.

  26. Nicholas

    There is fast broadband being deployed in a number of US cities – 21 listed in this article – but you are right, it is being blocked by phone company monopolists who can charge more for wireless.
    http://money.cnn.com/2014/08/21/technology/fast-internet-speeds/

    It explains the opposition to the NBN by the government Murdoch bought. If only the NBN company had been faster at rolling it out, people would have realised what they are losing.

  27. I do love t*rd polishing.

    The Liberals are only going to slightly lose an election on these results, which is apparently a sign that they’re travelling well.

    The more important fact is that Abbott’s numbers have increased.

    So all the sound and fury of the last few months have (arguably) been about shoring up Abbott’s leadership, rather than improving Liberal party polling.

    Be interesting to see what happens when the penny finally drops for people like Joe and Malcolm – although their powers of self delusion have protected them from in the past.

  28. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Ipsos hits the ground with this survey showing Abbott’s hanging on because of his international diversions but in trouble in several domestic policy areas.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-personal-approval-up-but-major-policies-unpopular-fairfax-ipsos-poll-20141102-11fraj.html
    But neither the unpassed budget measures or new ones at MYEFO will not go away.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/more-men-than-women-approve-of-abbott-as-prime-minster-20141102-11fril.html
    George Williams – New terror laws undermine democracy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/antiterror-laws-undermine-democracy-20141102-11fmui.html
    Our woeful stance on international companies’ Australian tax avoidance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australias-stance-on-tax-avoidance-out-of-step-says-bill-shorten-20141030-11ea47.html
    Judith Ireland – Direct Action is a Mickey Mouse scheme.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/direct-action-is-a-mickey-mouse-scheme-says-former-howard-adviser-20141102-11fn02.html
    Clive Palmer – a man of principle!
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/02/clive-palmer-direct-action-wont-work-but-its-better-than-nothing
    Do we have an irrational obsession with property?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/negative-gearing-blamed-for-irrational-property-obsession-anz-boss-phil-chronican-20141102-11fnax.html
    The CBA boss Narev will now appear at the Senate inquiry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/commonwealth-bank-ceo-ian-narev-offers-to-appear-before-senate-hearing-into-advice-scandal-20141102-11fr7y.html
    The end is near for Clive James.
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/i-feel-like-a-multiple-car-crash-in-the-rain-says-a-dying-clive-james-20141103-11fupz.html

  29. Section 2 . . .

    When oh when are the likes of Kevin Andrews going to see the light or get the hell out of the way?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/brittany-maynards-story-may-help-bring-death-with-dignity-for-the-terminally-ill-20141102-11fn0j.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/01/friends-of-dead-euthanasia-campaigner-want-support-for-right-to-die-bill
    Has Wakka Williams crossed a line here?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/senator-and-bank-embroiled-in-hunt-for-anthony-perishs-millions-20141102-11e2de.html
    The stupidity of those who get sucked in by faith healers.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/can-i-get-a-hallelujah,7059
    How Ted Bailieau stopped George Pell’s wet dreams.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/ted-baillieu-halted-cardinal-pells-wet-dreams-part-one,7057
    Abbott could send George Christensen over to sort these zealots out!
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/un-panel-warns-opportunity-to-stop-climate-change-fading-fast-20141102-11fmmq.html
    Nicholas Stern says that on the strength of this major UN report Abbott will be pressured to get Climate Change onto the G20 agenda.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/02/tony-abbott-must-put-climate-change-on-the-g20-agenda-in-brisbane
    Michelle Grattan reckons there could be a sting in the tail of the Climate Change Commission.
    https://theconversation.com/terms-of-reference-give-climate-change-authoritys-emissions-trading-inquiry-a-wide-remit-33714
    What will this do to the size of Morrison’s head?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/11/03/afp-lead-homeland-security-agency/
    Palmer sends a “please explain” to Morrison after a parliamentary committee inquiry found significant incompatibilities with human rights.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/02/clive-palmer-please-explain-temporary-protection-visa-deal

  30. Section 3 . . .

    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/11/02/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-100/
    I love this Direct Action swipe from Alan Moir.

    John Spooner has a dip at Direct Action too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/john-spooner-20090716-dmsv.html
    Matt Golding with some Melbourne Cup electoral attire.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/matt-golding-20090907-fdh2.html
    Pat Campbell with a muscled up George Brandis.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    David Rowe in the Melbourne Cup mounting yard.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    First Dog on the Moon has a crack at Direct Action.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cartoon/2014/nov/01/first-dog-on-the-moon-greg-hunt-leaked-messages

  31. Morning all

    Thanks BK for today’s dawn patrol.

    Fairfax poll for the feds is much more favourable to the coalition than the recent Newspoll. On the other hand, Newspoll for Victoria is in line with the fairfax poll. 54/46 to Labor

  33. Having said that the union bashing and linking OL Andrews with the CFMEU started in earnest on Friday. The day after polls were conducted

  36. GST

    Since the majority of my purchases are fresh food, if the GST were spread across all goods, my cost of living would immediately rise by around 10%. And since I pay no income tax now, lower tax rates would mean nothing to me.

    Abbott/Andrews have already lowered potential pension rises. Does anyone really believe that there would be adequate and permanent compensation for new GST arrangements?

  38. lizzie

    Team Labor and perhaps the Greens will no doubt do some modelling on the effects of an increase in the GST etc. very likely that the cost of living will go up for the majority of people. This would be the case even if compensation was factored in for those on lower incomes and/or pensions.
    How else, could revenue be raised if no one overall was paying more tax

  39. From the Fairfax Ipsos article:

    “In terms of the Coalition figures, the increase reflects Mr Abbott’s greater international profile and his strong position in deploying troops and taking on Vladimir Putin,” Ms Elgood said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-personal-approval-up-but-major-policies-unpopular-fairfax-ipsos-poll-20141102-11fraj.html#ixzz3Hwp3dkxJ

    Why do they persist with this?

    It was only a month and a half ago that supposedly serious journalists were writing stirring columns telling us we were “at war”.

    Remember all that talk about how Abbott’s decision was the gravest that any Prime Minister could make? The newspapers and TV shows had everything but the band playing Waltzing Matilda and yellow ribbons tied round oak trees. It was a cosy compact… “I’ll give you guys a ‘war’ and you can write it up as if we’re off to Ypres. It’s win-win,” Abbott told them.

    Don’t worry, no-one was ever going to get hurt. We don’tdo wars like that anymore.

    War? We sent half a dozen planes and a company of SAS (who still haven’t been let into Iraq), plus a some engineers and mechanics to sit around in the desert playing cards.

    Every now and again a 17 year old goes on You Tube to reduce grown men and women to cowering, whimpering babies. Occasionally even 7.30 will run a story titled, “Terrorist Scum” (that was last Thursday, by the way). Or the Tele will print a headline like “Rot In Hell” (pretty-well every day, that is).

    But apart from that, nothing much has happened. Except the bushfire seasons’s early again, unemployment is ramping up, consumer confidence is plummeting, manufacturing is in the toilet, alternative energy investment has stopped dead, and – outweighing all of this – Abbott made a schoolyard threat to physically assault the Russian President.

    He didn’t really mean he was going to hit Putin, or grab him by the front of his shirt and chest up to him. It was a metaphor, of course. But the media and the mug punters have chosen to fantasise about it that way. Oh, our larrikin PM!

    We are fast running out of options on the world scene. We have postured, pontificated and pranced about, acting heavy and dangerous (we’re not taking shit from anyone), but our Climate Change response is truly an embarrassment, our politics is becoming more and more bizarre by the day (I give youse Clive Palmer) and we are going nowhere fast.

    Our Treasurer is a domestic joke and our Prime Minister is an international one. Our country is declining as a result of the triumph of spin over substance.

    Yesterday on Insiders the journos were celebrating Abbott’s big win on the RET by gleefully pointing out that 30,000 jobs lost meant we used less electricity, so the target would be easier to achieve. So now the loss of livliehoods, companies, expertise and muscle from the economy is subordinate to Abbott’s scoring a point or two in the polls.

    Only in a truly fucked-up country, with a fucked-up media and a fucked-up political class could this disaster be a cause for celebration. But there you go. That’s what passes for “political analysis” nowadays: Abbott has achieved his goal at the cost of thousands of jobs and our nation being rendered an international laughing stock.

    Bit tick for that.

    When you think about it slightly more profoundly than the depth of a Petrie dish, it does make you shake you head in wonder that a country of 23 million people can be so shallow, so cowardly and so stupid.

  40. [When you think about it slightly more profoundly than the depth of a Petrie dish, it does make you shake you head in wonder that a country of 23 million people can be so shallow, so cowardly and so stupid.]

    That is the question that is often asked when I speak with my parents family and friends. We just dont get it.

  41. Mind you i was gobsmacked recently to find that even older adults were more concerned about discussing the outcome of the Australian version of the Batchelor, than anything that involved going over to iraq to fight the baddies

  42. victoria

    Thanks for the link. Funny how we don’t automatically think of Hockey, with his suits and cigars, as a “brown person”. But an excellent, scathing summary of the Libs.

    [We have no climate policy except the absurd notion that paying $2 billion to big polluters to not pollute is some kind of substitute for policy. Our dream of a National Broadband Network – an obvious social equaliser with massive economy-wide efficiency dividends – is in tatters. Our Prime Minister has committed to spending half-a-billion dollars per year in another baseless shameful invasion of Iraq despite the fact that the Iraqis do not want us there. Super jets. Rich parents paid to breed. Continued fuel subsidies to foreign-owned mining companies while the punters pay more at the bowser. Increased costs to access health services. And the absolute basest fruit-loopiest insult of all: a call from the king of all haters and juvenile stunts himself, Tony ditch-the-witch no-doesn’t-mean-no Abbott, calling for a debate on increasing the goods and services tax “without hurling insults”. He said that with a straight face. He is beyond help.]

  45. victoria

    [How else, could revenue be raised if no one overall was paying more tax]

    I was happy to contribute towards the change to sustainable energy through carbon pricing, but I am not happy that the Coalition have lost revenue through their budget muckup and then want to increase COL to compensate for their poor decisions.

  46. [
    ….
    (wink)
    I still contend it is illogical for Bludger Track to be worse for Labor than the worst poll. Yes, I understand the maths and ‘logic’, but it’s a case of maths over-riding logic.
    ]
    Yes; one has to conclude that bias is not what it used to be.

  48. BB

    [ When you think about it slightly more profoundly than the depth of a Petrie dish, it does make you shake you head in wonder that a country of 23 million people can be so shallow, so cowardly and so stupid. ]

    The answer is depressingly simple. First subborn the media – especially the national broadcaster – and then most people will believe anything you tell them.

  49. “Direct action” 2 billion
    PPL for the rich.

    The Liberals are raiding the treasury; hard to pretend that is good economic management.

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