A big welcome to the federal polling game to Ipsos, from the Poll Bludger and all who sail in her. GhostWhoVotes relates that Fairfax’s new pollster has opened its federal account with a result well in line with the overall trend, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. The poll targeted 1400 respondents from both landlines and mobile phones. Still awaiting primary votes, but the poll shows 51% opposed to the notion of increasing the GST and reducing income tax, with 41% in support, and 54% opposed to the government’s paid parental scheme, with 40% in support.
UPDATE: The primary votes are 42% Coalition, 37% Labor, 12% Greens and 3% Palmer United. Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is 53-47, as opposed to the 51-49 result from 2013 election preferences. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are tied 41-41 on preferred prime minister, the former rating 42% on approval and 49% on disapproval, and the latter rating 43% and 40%.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): After two relatively good results for the Coalition, the latest fortnightly Morgan result has then down a point to 38.5%, Labor up two to 37.5%, the Greens up half a point to 12.5% and Palmer United down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred result is 54.5-45.5 while previous election preferences is at 53.5-46.5, in both cases up from 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends, from a sample of 3117.
Interestingly, the IPSOS has respondent allocated at 53/47 to ALP, a 2 point divergence to the 51/49 of the 2013 election measure. Morgan has been carrying this circa 2 point divergence for some time.
Perhaps the toxic 2013 election mood following Rudd/Gillard/Abbott toxicity is biased towards LNP?
Hartcher is still trying to toady:
“Something better than the brawling thug”?
Try threatening to shirt-front an invited guest to an international forum, no less than the President of Russia, for size.
[Socrates
Posted Monday, November 3, 2014 at 7:32 am | Permalink
The reporting of this poll is curious, even in Fairfax. Surely comparisons with previous Neilsen polls are spurious, with a different methodology now by Ipsos?]
That’s what I was thinking too. Perhaps William and Kevin can give us their views on this.
Good to see the Australian tradition of booing politicians at sporting events is alive and well in the USA. Texas Governor Rick Perry just copped a massive round of boos while presenting the winners trophy to Lewis Hamilton at the USA Grand Prix. Well done Texas.
It’s a bit sad when journos are obviously hoping for some kind of national disaster to aid the Liberal cause..
William, am I correct in saying that Newspoll consistently has Labor’s primary vote lower than the other polls?
Can anyone confirm or otherwise?
Re BB @152: I find it hard to imagine that anyone could have been impressed by Abbott’s grandstanding over plane crashes, Ukraine, jihadis, Iraq or national security, especially given his pathetic response to the real threat of Ebola. To me it just proved that he is nothing but the brawling thug I always thiugh he was, and not a very smart one at that.
victoria@150
Sadly, too many people rely on the opinions of others to do it for them.
Mind you, I think Abbott has played this particular card (international statesman, calm in a crisis) far too early.
As it was, it didn’t get him ahead, just not as far behind as he has been, so it’s hard to see another crisis doing more than maintaining the status quo.
And once people are over the ‘talking dog’ effect, any future handling of international crises will be seen as business as usual, and not very interesting business at that.
Steve777@157
I agree. The real tests in the international arena at the moment are Climate Change and Ebola, and Abbot has fluffed both of these badly.
Have just been reminded that Brandis is on Q&A tonight. He is the Bloviator-in-Chief.
Are many Persian speaking Poll Bludgers (or Crikey readers generally) likely to be clients of people smugglers?
I say this because there is an advertising link written in Persian (as detected by Google translate) below William’s commentary. The link leads to the government’s ‘anti people smuggler’ campaign.
At least by clicking on the link I have diverted a tiny bit of taxpayer funds Crikey’s way.
[sprocket_
Posted Monday, November 3, 2014 at 9:00 am | Permalink
Interestingly, the IPSOS has respondent allocated at 53/47 to ALP, a 2 point divergence to the 51/49 of the 2013 election measure. Morgan has been carrying this circa 2 point divergence for some time.
Perhaps the toxic 2013 election mood following Rudd/Gillard/Abbott toxicity is biased towards LNP]
sprocket
Something similar to that has crossed my mind also. It makes sense to me that if people were particularly alienated from Labor at the last election it would not only affect their primary vote but also the percentage of preferences from the minor parties. If they are travelling a lot better now in public perception while at the same time the Abbott government has generally been on the nose why wouldn’t that result in a larger slice of the preferences for Labor?
At the very least it might be a sentiment that Labor could tap into in a similar way that the Hawke government did during the 1990 (I think it was) election campaign.
citizen
On mine it’s an invitation to take part in a cholesterol study. I don’t mind that one, but the one for treatment for rotting toenails is pretty disgusting.
See? They’ve sussed me as a pensioner so my toenails must be rotten 🙁
ZOOMSTER – Agree. The time to frighten the electorate is just before the election – not now.
Also totally agree with you about the GST. Were you the bludger who said that he stood for labor in 1999 and, the moment the GST was raised it drowned out all other issues.
Lizzie/Citizen
I have OHS training course, TV retuning , Uni Adelaide course on “innovation” and express courier.
It depends on what you have been searching. I guess if we searched on “sexual dysfunction” the viagra adds will appear. Now here is a test. Just typed those words so will the adds start to appear soon?
Citizen at a guess I say you have been searching stuff on Iranian asylum seekers.
[lizzie
Posted Monday, November 3, 2014 at 9:31 am | PERMALINK
citizen
On mine it’s an invitation to take part in a cholesterol study. I don’t mind that one, but the one for treatment for rotting toenails is pretty disgusting.
See? They’ve sussed me as a pensioner so my toenails must be rotten ]
That’s interesting – perhaps they are doing Google targeted ads based on a person’s browsing history. But I cannot recall looking at anything remotely connected with Iran or people smugglers on the Internet (unless a news item).
I might start to become a bit paranoid if the next advert is a message from Brandis telling me not to join ISIS.
DTT
In past 6 mths I have definitely NOT searched for toenail treatments. 😆
Crikey seems to have 5 add spots now
They have changed since my last post. Now I have banks, cogeneration and internet services.
Citizen there is no doubt at all about tjhe targeted adds.
I bet if we ask people for the adds at this very instant they will all be different.
I HAVE been searching OHS and cogeneration and even web hosters. The banks i guess are on spec on age etc.
Last week I got Godfrey’s – because I had been seaching for energy efficient vacuum cleaners.
DTT
What was your result on the vac cleaners?
Bushfire Bill
A bit of a give away Hartcher using the word “clarity” ? The knob polishers of Bush and assorted neocon fanbois used to love using that word to describe their heroes. “Clarity” being especially lacking in those who thought rushing off to war may not be the best option. A bit of a code word for “war monger” I suppose.
briefly @ 113
I wish we could emulate Germany’s housing policies. High land tax, no tax deductions for home ownership, strong tenants’ rights, 60 percent of people rent, large supply of good quality public and social housing, rents are regulated so that they can rise just enough to cover inflation and maintenance costs.
This reform should be championed as a way of lifting living standards. Doing business in Australia would be much easier if housing wasn’t overvalued to such a high degree. If housing were significantly cheaper wages wouldn’t have to be as high. Renting office and shop space wouldn’t be so expensive. Firms could expand their operations, employ more people, and lift living standards.
This is a very good poll for Shorten and vindicates his sticking close to the Government on National defence issues in recent times. Shorten is consolidating himself as a safe alternative to Abbott. Too many Labor Opposition leaders have in the past succumbed to the noisy urgings of the left and have suffered accordingly.
At the same time Shorten is maintaining pressure on the Government’s domestic agenda and a polling lead at this point of the electoral cycle is encouraging for the forces of good.
Of course there is still a long way to go. Tax cuts and the GST are going to be the key issues in the run up to the next election. Can Labor keep it all together as a team?
Like most in the ALP, I’m not counting on the LNP to remain an awful rabble as the next election approaches. The challenge for Labor is to articulate a moderate acceptable agenda for implementation as a Government and trust the public support our vision for the future.
[“When you think about it slightly more profoundly than the depth of a Petrie dish, it does make you shake you head in wonder that a country of 23 million people can be so shallow, so cowardly and so stupid.”]
Well said BB.I couldn’t agree more.
Lizzie
Standard commercial vacuum cleaners are generally 1000 watts. There is argument at the moment about whether higher watt motors give better cleaning ie suction.
As a home user the most energy efficient think you can do is to empty the bags frequently and change the filters (or wash them).
If you are buying a new cleaner work it out this way.
Feel the suction (it probably is not directly linked to motor strength) but it might be. Think if the suction difference means that you need to go over an area twice to get the same result, then any savings by choosing a low watt model ie 1000 over 2000 will disappear. Also look at the size of the suction head since if it is larger then you will save time and energy costs provided it can clean with decent suction along the full length. Check that the bag/filters are easy to change (or bagless). Generally the HEPA filter models will give better results because they reduce dust going back into the room and therefore frequency of cleaning.
Apparently the place is now “safe” to send ‘our’ refugees back to.
[…. more than 4,000 police and soldiers were killed fighting Taliban insurgents in 2013 and this year’s toll is expected to be higher.]
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/01/us-afghanistan-blast-idUSKBN0IL2SI20141101
Good Morning
The UN IPCC report is bad news for Abbott. It directly says end fossil fuels.
Hunt has been out out today saying not necessarily.
This is when Abbott will find Climate Change a negative. Especially after saying coal is good for humanity.
As a result I do not expect any upturn in the polls. This along with the economic realities of unpopular policies will have its impact.
DTT
Thanks for all that. I like bags because easier than washing out the inside. My method of saving energy is not vacuuming very often 😀
DTT
How do robot vacuums compare in the energy stakes?
Like most in the ALP, I’m not counting on the LNP to remain an awful rabble as the next election approaches.
A lot will hinge on how much lipstick the media put on the ‘pig’. Can they get away with the ‘Dog’ awful reporting a second time?
guytaur
Headline from the GG. Ah “clean coal” , they’ll find the philosophers stone before that happens.
[Direct Action ‘will help clean up coal use’
THE Environment Minister has touted the future of coal
]
The issue of preventing family violence is slowly becoming more important to Governments. These comments from the various Police Commissioners are encouraging. However, they can’t do it on their own and attitudes must change if we are to eliminate this scourge in our society.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/03/culture-of-hostility-to-women-leads-to-domestic-violence-say-police-chiefs
Vivtorian Election Writs will be in force 6 pm tomorrow
Napthine doing launch now on 24
I have a subpoena here from the International Gnome Rights and Protection Commission for one Mr William Bowie in regard to recent threats of cruel and unusual punishments to gnomes.
The wild west?
[A 37-year-old man who witnesses said taxied his plane down the main street of a Pilbara town to get to the pub has been spoken to by police.
Police were called to the Newman Hotel about 2:00pm on Friday.
Witnesses told police the light aircraft, with its propeller running, had been driven from one end of town to the other.
The aircraft did not have wings.
Newman Sergeant Mark Garner said the incident was being treated very seriously because there were children walking home from school at the time.
]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-03/man-taxied-plane-down-main-street-to-pub/5861970
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-03/ebola-spreading-nine-times-faster-in-sierra-leone/5861944
guytaur
A robot vacuum would save me some energy. 🙂
@Simon_Cullen: Gina Rinehart resigns as a director of @channelten. Statement: http://t.co/OtK9UoEQ1X
Maybe Mr Bolt will have to stick to print 👿
It’s hardly riveting news that the writs for an election that is pre-ordained to occur on November 29have been issued.
But, Guytaur, I know your inner diary secretary won’t let it pass without you posting it.
This article presents the social and economic benefits of year-round daylight saving. An extra hour of sunlight after work would boost retail sales, which would be good for output, jobs, and tax revenues. People would have more time for exercise, sport, and friends at a time when people feel relaxed because the day’s labours are behind them. It would strengthen social ties and reduce obesity. It would be good for office workers who would like to be able to enjoy some of the daylight hours instead of being indoors for nearly all of them. When daylight saving is in place fewer people are going about their daily business in the dark, meaning lower crime rates. When daylight saving is in place more travel takes place during daylight hours, which results in fewer traffic accidents. Making daylight saving year-round eliminates the inconvenience and disruption of switching back and forth between different time systems.
The article also addresses the arguments against daylight saving. First, many farmers oppose the shifting back and forth between daylight saving and ordinary time, not daylight saving itself. Second, daylight saving simply means that farmers will begin their tasks when the clock shows a higher digit, but it doesn’t affect their ability to do the job. The main problem they experience is the disruption to cows’ milking schedules when time gets shifted from daylight saving to ordinary time and back again. Year-round daylight saving avoids that problem. Some farmers’ tasks have to be completed within regular business hours (e.g. dealing with suppliers) but in general farmers are much less locked in to business hours than everyone else. Second, the problem of children going to school in the dark can be fixed by making the school day start later. The school day starts too early as it is, particularly for adolescents who need to be able to sleep in till about eight in order to attain maximum alertness and concentration at school.
http://www.vox.com/2014/10/29/7083837/daylight-saving-time-year-round
GG
Its simple. Scroll wheel. Your ranting objections take up more screen space
Puff
Robot vacuum is good for light work – not entirely satisfactory for dog hair. Definitely saves push-energy.
173
Nicholas
I agree. We need to remind ourselves that spending on existing housing is a form of consumption. We have a system that channels income into one very specific form of consumption to the detriment of both alternative consumption and investment. As a result, we are less able to generate higher economic growth and the higher incomes, employment, resilience and innovation than we otherwise would.
It’s no coincidence that the 50s and 60s were periods of both high public and private investment, high real income growth and low growth in house prices.
CTar1 @188
[Ebola is spreading up to nine times faster in parts of Sierra Leone than it was two months ago]
Ah Sierra Leone , the country whose president wrote a personal letter to Abbott asking for help about 2 months back. Requesting help in setting up quarantine sites etc to halt ebola. Not that Abbott was interested. Too many photo ops with RAAF sand dune bombers heading to Iraq at the time.
The most interesting thing so far about this election is that both major Party candidates wear prescription glasses in public all the time.
192
Nicholas
We have a permanent 20 minutes of daylight saving in Perth. That’s enough for most of us. An extra hour in summer is basically unbearable.
guytaur,
You are fibbing. You read every post.
briefly
I can only assume you are joking.