A big welcome to the federal polling game to Ipsos, from the Poll Bludger and all who sail in her. GhostWhoVotes relates that Fairfax’s new pollster has opened its federal account with a result well in line with the overall trend, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. The poll targeted 1400 respondents from both landlines and mobile phones. Still awaiting primary votes, but the poll shows 51% opposed to the notion of increasing the GST and reducing income tax, with 41% in support, and 54% opposed to the government’s paid parental scheme, with 40% in support.
UPDATE: The primary votes are 42% Coalition, 37% Labor, 12% Greens and 3% Palmer United. Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is 53-47, as opposed to the 51-49 result from 2013 election preferences. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are tied 41-41 on preferred prime minister, the former rating 42% on approval and 49% on disapproval, and the latter rating 43% and 40%.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): After two relatively good results for the Coalition, the latest fortnightly Morgan result has then down a point to 38.5%, Labor up two to 37.5%, the Greens up half a point to 12.5% and Palmer United down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred result is 54.5-45.5 while previous election preferences is at 53.5-46.5, in both cases up from 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the last two weekends, from a sample of 3117.
Kevin
[Were you the bludger who said that he stood for labor in 1999 and, the moment the GST was raised it drowned out all other issues.]
Indeed I was – and very frustrating it was, too.
(for the record, however, I’m a she bludger not a he bludger…)
briefly
WA NT and North Queensland should just set their time as weather conditions dictate.
For the East I too support a tear round change. However in my case I support it beause I do not think their is the political will to tackle the real change needed.
eg For business to thrive and to reduce transport costs have two shifts for workers. This halves peak hour traffic.
[174
Greensborough Growler]
Plan A…so far so good, doubtless helped along the ineptitude and arrogance of the LNP. A lot is going to depend on the economy and how the LNP respond. What will happen to growth, incomes and unemployment…and the fiscal position?
“@ABCNews24: .@senatormilne: Coal is not good for humanity, it is driving global warming.”
“@ABCNews24: .@senatormilne: The fantastic opportunity for Australia is that we have the most amazing renewable Energy Resources”
“@ABCNews24: .@senatormilne: If @TonyAbbottMHR continues to deny the real risks to humanity from coal, he’s letting us down”
“@ABCNews24: .@senatormilne: The scientists have made it clear, global warming is not only real, it’s accelerating.”
Broome WA the sunset is about an hour earlier than Perth.
Obviously that changes with the time of year. By the end of November it is about the one hour difference.
We could do with daylight saving in the Kimberley
Could Bill Shorten get some credible numbers on the net effect on electricity bills of removing the carbon tax and creating uncertainty about the RET? And what would happen to electricity prices if investors had rock solid confidence in renewable energy production in Australia? I think the numbers would show that right now any economic benefit to Australians is negligible, and in the long term Australians will miss out on the lower electricity prices made possible by the rapid roll-out of very large scale production of renewable electricity.
After one year in power, is there one thing which the Abbott Government has done which has improved the quality of life of millions of Australians? They’ve done some things which benefit a few thousand people: weaken regulations for financial planners; refuse to set up a Royal Commission into the Commonwealth Bank financial planning scandal; abolish the carbon and mining taxes; approve hand-outs for polluters.
But an achievement which makes life appreciably better for millions of Australians?
briefly,
Ohhh, Macarena!
I can never understand why Australia has clung to the work habits of a northern European country.
170
daretotread
I see various ads at different times…for home loans, bank deposits, income insurance, car insurance, broadband, education, media links, labour hire, property and investment services, editing online material…these must be Google staples, usually 4 spots at the foot of the browser page and others on the sidebar and beneath William’s intro. I almost never click any of them.
[207
Greensborough Growler
briefly,
Ohhh, Macarena!]
🙂
[208
lizzie
I can never understand why Australia has clung to the work habits of a northern European country.]
Nor me, especially in summer.
Egyptian journalists show courage that is lacking in most of their Australian counterparts:
[Several hundred Egyptian journalists have rejected a recent declaration by newspaper editors pledging near-blind support to the state and banning criticism of the police, army and judiciary in their publications, arguing that the move was designed to create a one-voiced media.
In a statement posted on Sunday on social media networks, the journalists said fighting terrorism was both a duty and an honour but has nothing to do with the “voluntary surrender” of the freedom of expression as outlined in the editors’ 26 October declaration.
“Standing up to terrorism with a shackled media and sealed lips means offering the nation to extremism as an easy prey and turning public opinion into a blind creature unaware of the direction from which it is being hit or how to deal with it,” said the statement.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/02/egyptian-journalists-freedom-of-expression
Daylight Saving is a well-worn path in WA, including 3?referendums over the years which shows an enduring majority in WA do not want it. Even after a “trial” a few years ago, the plebs still did not want it despite business telling everyone what a big difference it would make (to them).
DS is one of those unholy alliance formers in that people close to the beach/river in Perth love the idea – as well as business by and large – but those who live inland, especially those in the bush do not want it.
As some from Sandgropia have pointed out, places like such as the East Kimberley – are some several minutes of time different from Perth anyway. Even in the Deep South of WA, it is still not Tasmania deep.
Doubt whether DS will ever get popular support in WA – especially in Perth where most of WA persons actually live.
West Australians reject daylight ‘saving’, no chance they would ever see the benefits of the ‘midday’ siesta
[200
lizzie
briefly
I can only assume you are joking.]
About daylight saving? No, not joking. We do have a permanent 20 minutes relative to the sun and an extra 1 hour of daylight in summer in Perth is just a dreadful experience for most people. It’s been tried three times and each time people have grown more opposed to it.
briefly
I’m sorry, you’ll have to explain what you mean. DST (silly name, no saving) doesn’t add any hours of sunlight anywhere.
[213
Tricot
DS is one of those unholy alliance formers in that people close to the beach/river in Perth love the idea]
This is not the case. DS reduces the opportunities people have to enjoy the beach or the river. DS means it’s too dark to use them in the morning and too hot in the afternoon. DS actually reduces outdoor activity in Perth because it forces people to try to play sport/exercise when it’s too hot and/or there’s too much UV.
[216
lizzie
briefly
I’m sorry, you’ll have to explain what you mean. DST (silly name, no saving) doesn’t add any hours of sunlight anywhere.]
It affects the opportunities people have to exercise outdoors during the week. As well, it invariably means trying to put young children to bed when it’s still broad daylight and often really hot, especially in the hottest months – January through to March. It’s terribly disruptive. Anytime it’s been tried most of the population heaves a big sigh of relief when it’s over.
briefly
Yes. Thats why I think the government needs to lead the way by changing business hours not the time on the clock.
All the benefits of DST can be made without changing the clock just by changing hours of work. Government can lead the way by doing so for all public servants. While doing such changes two shifts a day could be considered. Also increasing employment chances as real job share than becomes possible.
briefly
your profile is a bit like mine. mind you Sometimes i get dating services
An interesting idea for changing the way we record time is to abolish regional time zones and adopt one global time zone on a 24 hour cycle. So at any given moment all clocks the world over would record the same time – e.g. 1400. But at 1400 some people would be waking up, some would be in the middle of their working day, some would be going to sleep, depending on their position on the Earth. It would eliminate confusion when scheduling flights, meetings, conversations.
It would take some getting used to. For a while it would feel weird for some of the world’s day shift workers to begin their shift at 2300 and knock off at 0700. But the numbers we associate with each of our routine activities are arbitrary anyway. Why not move to a different set of arbitrary numbers which promotes global convenience and understanding?
guytaur
I agree. Businesses could be more flexible for many other reasons. It seems locally that tradies start at 7am and knock off by 3-4. The roads are packed then.
“Leading reductions” my foot! And they open more ports and throw more spoil into the sea? Onya, Greg.
[Asked if Australia needed to do more to contribute to global reductions of carbon emissions, Mr Hunt described the five per cent 2020 target as “one of the world’s leading reductions”.
. . .
Mr Hunt said for him personally, the most important element of the report was its warning about the risks of the acidification of the oceans.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greg-hunt-says-ipcc-report-vindicates-the-governments-direct-action-policy-20141103-11fw6w.html#ixzz3HxeSJgFc
[it invariably means trying to put young children to bed ..]
Young children do not need set bedtimes. They sleep when they need to.
Reading that firms are lining up for Direct Action money. SURPRISE. Better to spend taxpayer money on carbon reduction than invest their own money.
Abbott repealed the carbon price legislation, removing the $7.5 billion in revenue. Still has to fund the $4.5 billion in tax cuts and compensation. Plus find the $2.55 billion to fund Direct Action. $14+ billion hit to the budget.
Do people really believe that this is all funded by some sort of ‘manna from heaven’?
Govt have only one source of income – taxes. No matter how much it is dressed up, all these decisions are funded by our taxes.
Based on the ABS finding that power prices have dropped 5%, a person would need to be paying a $11,000 per year power bill to save the Abbott promised $550
Nicolas 221
When would you change the date?
Anyway you do it, it would be a nightmare.
cog
I imagine you just go with Greenich Mean Time. No date change needed
Interesting IPSOS results.
On the GST question, I’d like to have seen a question about broadening the base of GST, to include those health, medical and education services that do not currently attract GST.
Seriously, most of those who can afford to pay for private health and education can afford to pay consumption tax on it.
Likewise, fresh food is consumed more by those who can afford it – with processed food (which already attracts GST) being cheaper. Although the effect is less progressive (more regressive) than in the case of health and education, it is not a clear-cut regressive step to impose GST on all food at a flat rate. (I also see Lizzie @136 provides a compelling counter example that highlights one potential inequity of this move.)
Moreover, I think both measures are preferable to increasing the rate of the GST, and the consequences this would have on retail demand more broadly.
Also, a request: I would appreciate it if someone who knows about tax can explain why residential accommodation is considered input-taxed but commercial leases are not – so the former are GST exempt but the latter are not.
Nicholas
When I consider how long it took me to accustom myself to North being the hot side and the moon being upside down, I think altering everyone’s concept of time would be far too confusing.
That means you have to change the date on your work at some time in the middle of the afternoon and the day may even change from Friday to Saturday.
Suddenly timetables etc will be a nightmare
Briefly
There is something inherently counter intuitive about the WHO reports on Ebola.
Fairly clearly in Sierra Leone the epidemic is still in full swing, with cases 9 times more frequent than last month.
Guinea seems OK and the infection is relatively controlled – it never got out of hand as it did in Liberia or SL
Mali is ominous in its silence. I find it hard to believe that the bleeding child infected no one- not even Grandma (mind you Grandma my be immune already)
Liberia the epidemic is apparently declining but intuitively it seems too early for the control measures to be taking effect
cog
Thats the reason we have the system we have now
[I agree. We need to remind ourselves that spending on existing housing is a form of consumption. We have a system that channels income into one very specific form of consumption to the detriment of both alternative consumption and investment. As a result, we are less able to generate higher economic growth and the higher incomes, employment, resilience and innovation than we otherwise would.]
This sounds right. From a monetary perspective, classes of assets that confer income tax benefits act as giant sponges, soaking up fresh liquidity and reducing the velocity of money. This renders monetary policy impotent – all that happens is the price of those classes of assets goes through the roof.
ads for travel, audi and travel accessories..no dating offers
[ads for travel, audi and travel accessories..no dating offers]
I got funeral insurance… !?
[Also, a request: I would appreciate it if someone who knows about tax can explain why residential accommodation is considered input-taxed but commercial leases are not – so the former are GST exempt but the latter are not.]
As I understand the policy residential housing is input taxed so that there is no difference GST impact wise as between a normal private home and a normal private home in an entity or structure. So for example you can’t get input tax credits on your rental property whether you are registered or not.
[AussieAchmed
Posted Monday, November 3, 2014 at 11:39 am | PERMALINK
Reading that firms are lining up for Direct Action money. SURPRISE. Better to spend taxpayer money on carbon reduction than invest their own money.]
Not only will big polluters be paid to do what they should be doing anyway.
Hunt said that the fund was open to farmers, families and businesses. In other words, it’s open slather. It will be “regional rorts” revisited. No prizes for guessing which electorates will receive the most money.
[231
daretotread
Briefly
There is something inherently counter intuitive about the WHO reports on Ebola.
Fairly clearly in Sierra Leone the epidemic is still in full swing, with cases 9 times more frequent than last month.]
There have been lots of warnings and lots of data revisions. Doubtless, this will continue. Everything should be construed with a fair amount of caution, which is consistent with the tone of the reports by WHO.
What is not in dispute, however, is that the failure of Western Governments to really listen to and respond to WHO has contributed to the loss of many lives. Consider this warning by WHO made in July this year:
(CNN) — The deadliest outbreak of Ebola virus on record has sparked fears that the killer virus could spread from West Africa to other regions and continents.
The outbreak began with just a handful of cases in Guinea in March. Since then, that number has grown to 909 confirmed cases and another 414 probable or suspected in that country, Sierra Leone and Liberia and Nigeria, according to the World Health Organization.
Some 729 people of the 1,323 total confirmed and possible infections have died, reports WHO as of July 27.
The WHO says “drastic action is needed” to contain Ebola, warning that previously undetected chains of transmission are boosting the numbers of sick and increasing the chances that the disease spreads from Africa.
“This epidemic is without precedent,” said Bart Janssens, director of operations for Médecins Sans Frontières, also known as Doctors Without Borders. “It’s absolutely not under control, and the situation keeps worsening. … There are many places where people are infected but we don’t know about it..
[235
Libertarian Unionist
ads for travel, audi and travel accessories..no dating offers
I got funeral insurance… !?]
bad idea t-shirts…really, quite funny in their own politically incorrect way
[237
citizen
Reading that firms are lining up for Direct Action money. SURPRISE. Better to spend taxpayer money on carbon reduction than invest their own money.
Not only will big polluters be paid to do what they should be doing anyway.
Hunt said that the fund was open to farmers, families and businesses. In other words, it’s open slather. It will be “regional rorts” revisited. No prizes for guessing which electorates will receive the most money.]
If the guidelines of DA are applied as they’re written, it’s going to be very difficult to find any projects to fund. They actually don’t expect to spend much at all, going by the budget docs.
They are not serious about emissions abatement. Clearly, the LNP is only interested in the politics rather than the substance of climate change.
Briefly
Not even WHO are revising SL figures. Today’s reports indicate that infection rate is very high.
WHO has NOT covered itself in glory on this one and I am inclined to suspect much is written through highly political tinted glasses.
In other words I am NOT convinced by the Liberian data, although I hope it is real.
Newman and Quirk to Brisbane residents: “Be alarmed – but please stay here and spend your money”:
[THE security net to be cast over Brisbane for the G20 summit is like nothing ever seen in Australia’s peacetime history.
BUT despite widespread disruptions, including to transport systems, authorities have a message for residents: don’t turn the city into a ghost town.
About 3000 journalists will be in Brisbane to cover the G20 leaders’ summit later this month, and authorities say it’s vital that the city puts its best foot forward to make the most of the opportunity for positive publicity.
But concerns are mounting that people will stay away in droves and that retailers and restaurants won’t bother to open, despite a full sideline program of cultural events and attractions.
“We don’t want a ghost town. It can’t be,” Brisbane’s Lord Mayor Graham Quirk said on Monday.]
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/security-operations-heat-up-before-g20/story-e6frfku9-1227110425137
zoomster
[Young children do not need set bedtimes. They sleep when they need to.]
It’s debatable. To the best of my knowledge there is no conclusive evidence either way as to cognitive or physiological benefit. It would be hard to design a study that was sufficiently wide and prolonged and controlled to determine the question.
My personal developmental preference was always to set definite bedtimes and have a definite pre-bedtime routine. Children do take comfort in routines, and routines are a pillar of organised life.
One shouldn’t fetishise them of course, and selective departure from them can mark occasions as ‘special’ and therefore more engaging.
I doubt that higher ambient light will make much difference. Our pre-bedtime routine always involved bathing and stories with the parents. Whether you do that with the light on or not is beside the point. It will be dark by the time sleep is to be approached.
Set bed times for kids are good for parent sanity
AussieAchmed@205
I always thought daylight savings are detrimental up in the tropics. When I lived in Singapore, the sunrise and sunset only deviate around up to 30 minutes from the norm, hardly makes it worthwhile.
lizzie@208
I don’t know why we don’t push flexible hours more. I went to an IT conference a few months back and one of the speakers suggested that varying work hours will solve a lot of our problems with public transport and traffic congestion.
If only our states are willing to give incentive to employers to allow this. They’ll save money on transport infrastructure.
During the winter months there is little difference in times. Summer in Broome is around 1820hrs, Perth about an hour later.
Not a lot of daylight hours to enjoy after work.
citizen@242
This is silly. So they’re asking people to stay and inconvenience themselves with the harsher rules during the G20.
Potemkin Village much?
I reckon they are pretending there was ever anything to do in Brisbane in the first place.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/
[The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for the month of September. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals fell by a seasonally adjusted 11% to 15,004. The overall fall was broad-based, with the volatile unit and apartment segment falling by 21.9% and the more stable house approvals segment falling by 2.3%. The result disappointed analysts’ expectations, who had expected a 1.0% decline in approvals over the month. In the year to September 2014, dwelling approvals fell by a seasonally-adjusted 13.4%, with house…]
This was just about completely inevitable. Income growth has lagged behind the growth in housing prices for many months, especially in Sydney. Eventually, something has to give and this time it’s demand for housing.
Mining and housing – the two locos in the economy – are decelerating together.
I also heard on the ABC radio news this morning that price gains in housing clearly peaked about 6 months ago and the rate of growth is slowing – from above 13% to less than 9% pa. This reflects falls in prices in some markets in the most recent period, further evidence that demand for housing has peaked.
What will the LNP do?
Export-related investment is falling
Export volumes have climbed, but revenues are falling
Real per capita disposable incomes continue to fall
Underlying per capita demand for labour remains in trend decline
We need a strategy to revive income growth in absolute and per capita terms. The LNP do not have one. On the contrary, rather than finding ways to promote income growth, they are intent on reducing incomes. Their policy with respect to temporary labour is a case in point.
It’s one thing to bring in temporary labour to meet specific shortages, it’s entirely another to indenture this labour. Indentures by definition reduce labour mobility and therefore reduce the intensity of competition for new labour in sectors where temporary workers are employed – that is, in sectors where labour shortages can be identified. This reduces the opportunities for income growth for workers in the rest of the (host) economy.
Indentures for temporary workers should be abolished.