Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll runs against the recent trend in recording a bounce in Labor’s lead. Other big news: Fairfax set to return to the polling game following Nielsen’s recent shutdown.

A tale of four pollsters:

Newspoll

GhostWhoVotes relates the first Newspoll in four weeks has delivered Labor its best poll result in some time, with a two-party lead of 53-47 that compares with 51-49 last time. The Coalition is off three points on the primary vote to 38%, but the direct beneficiaries are the Greens, up three to 14%, with Labor steady on 34%. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 53%, but Bill Shorten’s numbers have also declined – his approval is down three to 35%, and disapproval up three to a new high of 46%. On preferred prime minister, Shorten closes the gap from 41-37 to 39-38.

The poll also has 63% saying Tony Abbott should “confront” (not “shirt-front”) Vladimir Putin over MH17, against 27% who don’t.

Morgan

This fortnight’s result from Morgan, encompassing 3131 respondents from its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, is little changed on last fortnight, which was the Coalition’s best result from this series since February. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down half a point to 39.5%, Labor is up half a point to 35.5%, and the Greens and Palmer United are unchanged on 12% and 3.5% respectively. On two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the 2013 election, the Labor lead increases just slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences it goes the other way, down from 53-47 to 52-48, minor party preferences evidently having been a little more favourable to the Coalition this time out. Keen poll watchers will be aware that Morgan has lately taken to including two-party preferred breakdowns by age. These results appear to indicate that Morgan’s noted Labor skew is being driven by the younger respondents. I mean to get around to taking a closer look at that some time.

Fairfax Ipsos

The big news in polldom this week is that Fairfax has announced Ipsos, a major international market research concern whose local operation Iview has done some scattered online polling around the place this year, will fill the void created by Nielsen’s shutdown earlier in the year. Best of all, it will replicate Nielsen’s methods in conducting live interview phone polling from 1400 respondents each month. State polling will also be conducted, starting with a Victorian poll which we can expect very shortly.

Essential Research

It will, as always, publish its weekly result at around 2pm EST. Watch this space.

UPDATE: Essential concurs with Newspoll in having Labor’s lead at 53-47, which is up from 52-47 last time, although the primary vote numbers suggests there’s not much in the shift: the Coalition is down a point to 40% and everyone else is steady, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 3%. Some indication as to why the Coalition is in this position is provided by a further question on perceptions of economic indicators, with very large majorities finding everything has gotten worse except for “company profits”. Forty-four per cent think their own financial situation is worse versus 16% for better, and the economy overall fares similarly. Other findings are that 66% favour voluntary euthanasia with 14% opposed, and 58% believing Australia is doing enough to fight Ebola versus 21% for not enough.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,268 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. The passing of Gough, it was the Dismissal when I was 14yo that commended my interest in politics and it has never waned since. Rest in peace.

  2. Assuming this is not another tasteless Twitter rumour, the passing of Gough Whitlam is very sad.

    Whatever one thought of his politics, he was a towering figure over the Australian political landscape and will remain a significant feature of Australian history.

  6. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-21/labor-demands-answers-about-parliament-photos/5828546

    [Federal Parliament’s chief bureaucrat has revealed her own department paid one of her neighbours $30,000 to take photos.

    The Department of Parliamentary Services (DPS) commissioned artist Anne Zahalka to produce 10 “photographic works” to celebrate the 25th anniversary of Parliament House.

    The Department said she was chosen “because of her international reputation and experience in photographic commissions”.

    But Ms Zahalka lives just a few doors away from the Sydney home of DPS head Carol Mills and the Federal Opposition is worried about the way the artist was selected.]

    The bigger question here is why on earth is a departmental secretary of a Commonwealth department (one that is by definition based in the parliamentary triangle) living in Sydney?

  7. The tasteless thing is that all the news media have these obituaries “ready to go” on file and to be released the minute they hear of a famous passing.

    This is why there ends up with so many false death announcements. Folk like Dawn Fraser or even Joan Kirner have “obits” sitting and waiting in Fairfax or ABC’s news file ready to go.

  10. Rest in Peace P.M. Gough Whitlam. The man that got me interested in politics.

    Thank you.

    Let history always be the judge of the Whitlam era. So much reforming and they will never be able to take that away his era.

  12. The Newspoll question about Abbott ‘confronting’ Putin is bogus. Of course Australians want our PM to confront the Russian President about the MH17 disaster, but few will agree that he should ‘shirtfront’ Putin in the way that Abbott implied that he would.

    A good example of a flawed question being used to justify and seek retrospective approval of a stupid and undiplomatic outburst from our erratic PM.

  13. Given his track record I dread what the current PM may say.

    Me too. The current PM is not worthy to be mentioned in the same sentence.

  16. 115
    briefly
    Posted Tuesday, October 21, 2014 at 8:41 am | PERMALINK
    [Gough was and will remain an immensely inspirational figure. He changed the country for the better in so many ways.]

    Indeed

  17. 112
    The Big Ship
    Posted Tuesday, October 21, 2014 at 8:38 am | PERMALINK
    [The Newspoll question about Abbott ‘confronting’ Putin is bogus. Of course Australians want our PM to confront the Russian President about the MH17 disaster, but few will agree that he should ‘shirtfront’ Putin in the way that Abbott implied that he would.

    A good example of a flawed question being used to justify and seek retrospective approval of a stupid and undiplomatic outburst from our erratic PM.]

    And we have the ABC and News Ltd. focussing on this today.

  19. The Abbott Government plans to dismantle at least two of Whitlam’s legacies if it can: in Teriary Education, if Pyne’s ‘reforms’ get through. And the Co payment is planned as the first step in dismantling Medicare.

  21. Steve777

    [The Abbott Government plans to dismantle at least two of Whitlam’s legacies if it can: in Teriary Education, if Pyne’s ‘reforms’ get through. And the Co payment is planned as the first step in dismantling Medicare.]

    A good opportunity for Labor to focus on this now

  22. Gough has died? This really is the end of the 20th century. Remember how we thought things could only get better? Now we are going backwards in the 21C.

  24. [And we have the ABC and News Ltd. focussing on this today.]

    But of course — and that was why it has been referenced as Murdoch Poll — because no matter the headline figures, there will always be a gem of support for the Coalition which the Australian will highlight in its commentary on the poll and the ABC will dutifully follow the same line in its copy and paste reporting.

    Take a look at the Australian‘s front page today on the poll — if it had been 53-47 to the Coalition, the full colour graphs would have made it on the front page, you can bet on that.

  25. Re Victoria @121: agreed. A sad occasion but an opportunity to change the conversation back to what matters. Gough would be pleased.

  30. The has GG put up another Newspoll headline. After 4 headlines I’m beginning to think they must have only asked one question 😆

    [Newspoll: Majority in favour of Abbott’s ‘shirtfronting’ ]

  31. Like others commenting I too started my interest in politics with Gough.

    As an active person in Labor and Unions (when it was the TLC) I had the pleasure of meeting Gough. I remember well spending time sitting around on a Sunday morning having a coffee engaged in a fantastic conversation. It was a fantastic morning that remains well imprinted on my memory.

    My signed copy of one of his books remains on the shelf unopened. (I got a second unsigned copy that I read.)

  32. Morning all.

    Woke this morning to a text from mum to say Gough has died. Naturally she’s upset.

    I dread to think what Abbott will say in the condolence motion in QT today. No doubt something tacky and using his death to make some partisan political point.

  33. Vale Gough Whitlam. A true great man leading a party and nation to greatness.

    I know the Australia I know that I love is built on his work.

  35. “@lenoretaylor: Brandis tells a committee house of reps to meet at noon for condolences for whitlam, no other business or committees meet today”

  39. [It can never just be a good poll for the Greens, it’s always Margin of Error.]

    I do think it would be nice for Centre to be wheeled out here to give his views on this MurdochPoll which puts the Greens on an inconceivable 14% primary vote!

  40. On politics Gough Whitlam even in death is working for the Labor party. The media entrail examination of legacy is going to show the concept of doing what is right.

    Standing up against unfairness in so many aspects. Abbott will look the political pygmy champion of unfairness that he is.

  42. The Australian headline “PM wins backing for Putin faceoff”. They sure know who to spin a negative poll for LNP … I wonder what the response would have been if it had of ask – do you support Abbott using the term ‘shirtfront’ to characterise his confrontation with Putin. Newspoll might not be bias per se – but the questions it asks and how its results are interpreted are a joke…

  44. “@GrogsGamut: Suspending parliament for the day for Gough is an amazing tribute. Not sure I like it though. He was such a great parliamentarian.”

  45. A brief reminder of Gough Whitlam’s professional eminence before politics:

    [Vale the Hon Edward Gough Whitlam AC QC (1916-2014)

    The Hon Edward Gough Whitlam AC QC, former barrister and prime minister, died this morning. He was admitted to the New South Wales Bar in February 1947 and took silk in 1962. On 17 May 1999, during the ceremonial sitting to mark the 175th anniversary of the Supreme Court, Mr Whitlam spoke on behalf of the NSW Bar, for which he was issued a practising certificate for the day.]

  49. [The Australian headline “PM wins backing for Putin faceoff”. They sure know who to spin a negative poll for LNP … I wonder what the response would have been if it had of ask – do you support Abbott using the term ‘shirtfront’ to characterise his confrontation with Putin. Newspoll might not be bias per se – but the questions it asks and how its results are interpreted are a joke…]

    Exactly.

    That is what many of us have been saying — yet the ridicule continues, despite the Australian proving us right almost like clockwork.

  50. “@randomswill: @wendy_harmer I met #GoughWhitlam years ago. I was wearing a Mambo Pauline Hanson “Rednecks” t-shirt. Gough: “Well done comrade.” #auspol”

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