Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll runs against the recent trend in recording a bounce in Labor’s lead. Other big news: Fairfax set to return to the polling game following Nielsen’s recent shutdown.

A tale of four pollsters:

Newspoll

GhostWhoVotes relates the first Newspoll in four weeks has delivered Labor its best poll result in some time, with a two-party lead of 53-47 that compares with 51-49 last time. The Coalition is off three points on the primary vote to 38%, but the direct beneficiaries are the Greens, up three to 14%, with Labor steady on 34%. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 53%, but Bill Shorten’s numbers have also declined – his approval is down three to 35%, and disapproval up three to a new high of 46%. On preferred prime minister, Shorten closes the gap from 41-37 to 39-38.

The poll also has 63% saying Tony Abbott should “confront” (not “shirt-front”) Vladimir Putin over MH17, against 27% who don’t.

Morgan

This fortnight’s result from Morgan, encompassing 3131 respondents from its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, is little changed on last fortnight, which was the Coalition’s best result from this series since February. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down half a point to 39.5%, Labor is up half a point to 35.5%, and the Greens and Palmer United are unchanged on 12% and 3.5% respectively. On two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the 2013 election, the Labor lead increases just slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences it goes the other way, down from 53-47 to 52-48, minor party preferences evidently having been a little more favourable to the Coalition this time out. Keen poll watchers will be aware that Morgan has lately taken to including two-party preferred breakdowns by age. These results appear to indicate that Morgan’s noted Labor skew is being driven by the younger respondents. I mean to get around to taking a closer look at that some time.

Fairfax Ipsos

The big news in polldom this week is that Fairfax has announced Ipsos, a major international market research concern whose local operation Iview has done some scattered online polling around the place this year, will fill the void created by Nielsen’s shutdown earlier in the year. Best of all, it will replicate Nielsen’s methods in conducting live interview phone polling from 1400 respondents each month. State polling will also be conducted, starting with a Victorian poll which we can expect very shortly.

Essential Research

It will, as always, publish its weekly result at around 2pm EST. Watch this space.

UPDATE: Essential concurs with Newspoll in having Labor’s lead at 53-47, which is up from 52-47 last time, although the primary vote numbers suggests there’s not much in the shift: the Coalition is down a point to 40% and everyone else is steady, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 3%. Some indication as to why the Coalition is in this position is provided by a further question on perceptions of economic indicators, with very large majorities finding everything has gotten worse except for “company profits”. Forty-four per cent think their own financial situation is worse versus 16% for better, and the economy overall fares similarly. Other findings are that 66% favour voluntary euthanasia with 14% opposed, and 58% believing Australia is doing enough to fight Ebola versus 21% for not enough.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,268 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. A great set of numbers.

    As I’ve long argued, for Tory govt to from its natural advantages on national security, it has to appear competent.

    This one is scrolling clown show – further lumbered by a poisonous economic philosophy that voters have already rejected.

    The sooner commentators start to view Abbott for what he is: the final phase of the Rudd-Gillard mess, the clearer it will become that he will not be returned in 2016. Voters held their noses to vote this lot in – I don’t fancy their chances of altering those perceptions.

  2. Naturally, normal OH&S regulations applied and no exemptions were granted by the Fed Govt as you seem to think.

    I don’t think there were regulatory exemptions from the federal government. The program brought some regulatory standards to an industry which previously had none in several states.

    The reason for ex gratia payments would be to recognize that it was an extraordinary federal government program. In the years before the program there were typically seventy thousand insulations carried out in Australia each year. This federal government program massively increased the volume of insulations to about 1.2 million in one year. You point out that the federal government only played a financing role, but it was the massive amount of finance which enabled such an unusual number of insulations to be done in so short a time, and which attracted shonky contractors. It would have made it much easier for the government to point out the harsh reality that there will always be some irresponsible contractors and no government can prevent every instance of that if the government had also treated the families generously. Thrash the contractors and defend the program to the hilt, but also treat the victims’ families with compassion. The payments could quite easily have been constructed as a one-off arrangement because of the special nature of the program, the financial catastrophe which made haste an essential element the program, and the fact that it was only a few families.

    You do realize that I agree that the program was highly successful, right? My argument is that Labor cannot complain about the home insulation program being a byword for government failure when it was Labor who ran away from defending it. A vigorous and sustained Labor defence of the program would have resulted in a large percentage of the public viewing the program as successful, and it would meant that even the lazy mainstream media would at the very least have had to refer to it as the “controversial” home insulation scheme instead of the unambiguously “failed” scheme which it is invariably described as today.

  3. There must be a lot of cynicism about the whole security issue: operation burqua; operation plastic sword; SAS troops lingering unwanted in the UAE for a month; money and personnel for a war we shouldn’t touch with a barge pole and small change for the much more serious threat of Ebola.

    Good night all.

  4. The fear factor works by encouraging a-frighted punters to flee into the safe arms of the nearest authority figure – usually the Government of the day. But this breaks down when the nearest authority figure makes themselves look completely ridiculous, which is what Abbott managed to do last week. Who would like to trust their personal or national safety to an obviously inept clown?

    Abbott really badly mishandled the budget by provoking anxiety and mistrust among voters. They’ve just managed to do a repeat performance in relation to “foreign security”. Voter fear may now be a negative for Abbott in general terms. If so, to the extent that fears for economic, fiscal or military security revive, punters will be reluctant to place much reliance on Abbott.

    He is going to have to find other ways to regain voter confidence. It’s not going to be easy.

  5. [Hasn’t been that apparent lately but this is a good time to remember that Newspoll is bouncy]

    I think the point is that the OZ has to roll with the punches. For every blip and gloat Abbott’s way they have to eat a little crow when the dice tumble in Labor’s favour.

  6. And who supports the ‘conservative’ side of politics? Not that Abbott is a conservative, turns out he and most of his team are right wing radicals.

    As for the ‘conservative’ voter base, it’s a curious coalition of: Big Money, those who own it and those who hope to some day; social conservatives – they share values with Big Money, like thrift and concern/desire for status; and bogans, who share values with Pauline Hanson, Barry Spurr and Alf Garnett – they are the swing group who hear the dogwhistle.

    Now I really am off to bed.

  7. I think the decline in popularity for Shorten is due to the desire among many in the electorate for him to do something…like anything… rather than be an apparent echo chamber for Abbott…which is the impression he has given..

    If there is a shift to the Greens, I would bet on the Iraq deployment being the cause of it…Likely to become more pronounced if there are army casualties…

  8. Of course, we have a long hot summer ahead of us, a summer that will follow an unusually warm spring for most of the country. This is not going to do much for public confidence in the Abbott Government, who persist with their absurd denialism.

    It won’t take much for loss of trust to spill over into outright anger. Abbott promised mature, stable and predictable rule. So far, he is persistently failing to deliver.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml

  9. Re Poll
    _________
    Greens are nearly 1/3 of the ALP primary vote…and are being rewarded for their stance on many issues ,which Labor has gone quiet on
    The bad result for Shorten is predictable,,,can he ever improve by any margin

    He may be all that stands between Abbott and a real hiding
    curious that !

  10. [#Newspoll Should Abbott confront Putin over #MH17: Yes 63 No 27 #auspol]

    Going by TA’s netsat and the COALition primary decline then the ‘confront’ issue is not a major issue, not a vote changer, at least not positive for the govt and the PM.

  11. 65
    William Bowe
    Posted Tuesday, October 21, 2014 at 12:15 am | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Should Abbott confront Putin over #MH17: Yes 63 No 27 #auspol

    silly question really…

  12. [ Dog whistle overload; if that is the case what do the liberals do now? ]

    They could always discuss domestic policy and their brilliant and fair Budget savings measures?? 🙂

  13. This poll is Great – “Operation Muzzo Scare” has failed to distract people from what a perpetual stuff up this government is. No doubt this is why the Oz has held off publishing the last Newspoll.

    the Oz’s reporting of this? “Pm wins backing for Putin face off” – unbelievable. they didn’t ask the question about “Do you think the PM a dickhead for claiming he’ll shirtfront Putin?”. even their question about ‘confronting’ is good – abbott is going to have to make a scene over this, and he’s going to be made to look stupid when he does. Putin will refuse to meet him and send some third rate bureaucrat to meet. Abbott will be left having to ‘confront’ in public, and Putin will coldly rip a strip off him and make him look small and foolish – abbott’s anger management will be pushed to the limit – I’m hoping for a catatonic ‘shit happens’ quivering episode. Putin could then dump discounted wheat into a prized Australian market and suspend imports of wool and meat.

  14. @ deblonay, 66

    “Almost 1/3”?

    The Greens are on 14%, which is a bit more than 41% of the size of the Labor vote (34%), so they’re well above a third (33.3%) and well on their way to half (50%) of the Labor vote.

  15. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/10/china-headed-for-3-9-growth/

    [China’s growth will slow sharply during the coming decade to 3.9% as its productivity nose dives and the country’s leaders fail to push through tough measures to remake the economy, according to a report expected to come out Monday.

    …Foreign companies should realize that China is in “a long, slow fall in economic growth,” the report said. “The competitive game has changed from one of investment-driven expansion to one of fighting for market share.”]

    Pettis on $50 iron ore and why Australia is Spain

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/10/michael-pettis-on-50-iron-ore-and-why-australia-is-spain/

  16. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102098390#.

    [IBM on earnings: We’re disappointed with performance

    IBM on Monday posted earnings that fell well short of analysts’ expectations, with the company saying it is “disappointed” with its performance.

    The tech giant reported earnings excluding items of $3.68 a share on revenue of $22.40 billion.

    IBM had been expected to post earnings excluding items of $4.31 a share on revenue of $23.37 billion.

    “We are disappointed in our performance. We saw a marked slowdown in September in client buying behavior, and our results also point to the unprecedented pace of change in our industry,” Ginni Rometty, IBM chairman, president and CEO said in a statement. “While we did not produce the results we expected to achieve, we again performed well in our strategic growth areas—cloud, data and analytics, security, social and mobile—where we continue to shift our business. We will accelerate this transformation.”

    The company also said it is no longer able to keep 2014 operating earnings per share forecast.

    The news comes after the company announced plans to pay contract-chipmaker Globalfoundaries $1.5 billion to offload its loss-making chip business. As part of the deal, it will take a $4.7 billion pretax charge.]

  17. Bludgers may like to have a look at the current SST in the Indian Ocean

    and the Pacific

    Sea Surface Temps have been rising again quite notably in recent days.

  18. Morning all. Nice poll. As othes have said, the more memory of Rudd/Gillard fades, the worse Abbott will look. Whether you are conservative or not, he is no John Howard.

    Briefly, regarding China, the economist I know who studies them most closely thinks that it is corruption and nepotism, not debt, that is now slowing them down most. They still have a lot of growing to do, but a lot of money is being lost (embezzled) or wasted due to corrupt officials at all levels. Also some of the corrupt officials themselves block needed reforms from being enacted. This is especially the case in the western provinces. A bit like Sydney under Obeid and Tripodi 🙂

    Like Sydney though, once the corruption is weeded out, China will continue to grow strongly, to become the world’s largest economy by the end of the decade. Don’t sell those BHPB shares too soon. Also as the USA continues to recover, they will buy more imports, which will help China.

  19. Arrnea Stormbringer

    This might be pedant but it’s all down to numbers.

    To be fair it’s neither and I’ll just say 14/34 or 7/17 😛

  20. The NewsPoll PDF

    http://goo.gl/9opKb7

    Includes the full text of the question about Abbott’s ShirtFronting Brainfart ™

    Methinks NewsPoll is flirting with PushPolling by not mentioning the ‘S’ word followed by the “You bet you are, I bet I am” outburst which clearly showed Abbott’s intemperance

  21. Not sure what to make of this poll. The headline numbers seem to be heralding a sudden move. However, there does not seem to be much happening that would explain why this is happening. So, it could deflated just as quick.

    Of course the Greens get excited when there is an increase in their vote. But, they go very quiet when it ebbs back and it is certainly well known that the Greens vote in polls tends to exceed their real vote at elections.

    Perhaps there is a delayed negative reaction to Australian forces being involved in a war of little purpose. Maybe there is a reaction to the “shirt front” comment and the “Ebola” reaction might be resonating. In in the end it might just be the resumption of Parliament and the public realisation of what an awful Government they have inflicted upon themselves.

    However, reading William’s caveats about rounding up and the fact that the results seem within MOE, I’m not getting excited unless there are some confirming polls from elsewhere.

    Otherwise, stay calm and carry on!

  22. To be clear, the PushPolling technique at its more subtle end involves statements/questioning like..

    “Where you aware that candidate X supported mining the National Park, dumping the fill on your beach, and closing down the local shopping centre?”

    “Thinking now about candidate X, do you support them?”

    By NewsPoll using the words in the first question of Abbott, Putin, confronting, MH17 shot down – prompting the concept and the conflation (sans the intemperate ShirtFronting) into the interviewee’s mind. Then follow up with the do you support will elicit the 72% they got.

  23. Morning all

    I did not expect this Newspoll result. I believed that the polls would further tighten in the coalition’s favour

  24. Speaking of stupid conservative people in high public office, they may make mistakes, but they sure avoid responsibility for them when caught! Bronwyn Bishop herself and Senate pres Stephen Parry added the burqa ban to parliamentary rules, not based on advice from others.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/20/bronwyn-bishop-stephen-parry-personally-burqa-ban-official-advice

    At least Howard was smart enough to lie in a fashion hard to disprove. He learnt that after being caught lying as treasurer, when he got the nickname “Honest John”. This lot seem incapable of learning that. They are the kind of people Barry Spurr wants to stop going to Uni 🙂

  25. Poroti

    I like to give credit where it is due. After all, neither has been charged yet. I will be happy to say the same about Canberra under Abbott. The only reason the way they deal with business does not count as corrupt is that Federal donations laws are too weak. But they are surely selling out the national interest to a few corporate shonks, from super reforms to privatising assets, all the while studiously avoiding the tax reforms we actually need.

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Seems like a good idea.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mosman-council-turns-to-new-york-for-a-simpler-signage-solution-20141020-118u1h.html
    And this, too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/bodymounted-police-cameras-to-be-used-as-domestic-violence-evidence-20141020-118vb5.html
    Don’t know about this one though!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/australian-taxation-office-orders-new-building-despite-6200-empty-desks-20141020-118rb9.html
    How in the heck does this happen?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-teachers-on-457-visas-worsen-graduate-glut-20141020-118x9m.html
    Mr Grecian 2000 hoists his flag.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-teachers-on-457-visas-worsen-graduate-glut-20141020-118x9m.html
    Greg Jericho looks at the potential effect on us of the economic woes of Europe.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/oct/20/australia-destined-europes-economic-malaise
    Fancy that! The Speaker and the President contradict Abbott. It’s clear that Abbott hung them out to dry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-teachers-on-457-visas-worsen-graduate-glut-20141020-118x9m.html
    How a throwaway comment brought about the burqa ban.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/20/burqa-ban-imposed-after-anonymous-radio-rumour-reached-parliament
    Twenty percent of Cormann’s Finance Department are casual employees.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/finance-department-sees-25-per-cent-spike-in-casual-workforce-within-a-year-20141020-118l2l.html
    Is James Hird our new Lindy Chamberlain?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/2014/10/20/james-hird-new-lindy-chamberlain/

  27. Section 2 . . .

    Sarah Hanson-Young causes chaos at Estimates over a couple of issues that land right in Morrison’s lap.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/20/new-members-migration-review-tribunal-bypassed-selection-panel
    Why the ACCC is hounding Coles.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/10/21/food-and-beverages/why-accc-hounding-coles
    Australia ranked lowly in green economy leadership.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/carbon-economy/green-economy-index-2014-australia-ranked-last-for-leadership-20141020-118s1t.html
    Wixxyleaks on the reasons for Jackie Kelly’s resignation from the Liberal Party.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/calling-it-quits-the-politics-of-racism-and-jackie-kelly-resigns-from-the-liberal-party/
    Bob Ellis with effusive praise of Flanagan’s book.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/10/19/the-world-just-is-richard-flanagans-the-narrow-road-to-the-deep-norrh/
    Trouble in the camp in the Victorian Education Department.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/education-department-flags-integrity-review-amid-corruption-probe-20141020-118s38.html
    Timbercorp proposes a deal with its many victims. It’s not a pretty picture.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/timbercorp-liquidator-offers-to-cut-a-deal-with-victims-20141020-118y90.html
    Labor promises to lift the lid on individual school funding if it wins the election.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/labor-to-reveal-gonski-funding-20141020-118tf9.html
    Peter Hartcher – Indonesia moves ahead with democracy whilst Malaysia goes backwards.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/one-step-forward-for-indonesia-one-step-back-for-malaysia-20141020-118vq6.html

  28. Section 3 . . .

    Peter Martin – the Reserve Bank is flying blind as the decimated ABS serves up insufficient and unreliable data. He piles into the Coalition over this.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/reserve-bank-flies-blind-as-numbers-dont-add-up-20141020-118ix4.html
    Brendan O’Connor neatly sums up Cormann’s girly-man comment. Calls him a dickhead.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mathias-cormann-a-dhead-for-inappropriate-girly-man-reference-says-labors-brendan-oconnor-20141020-118mhw.html
    Bruce Petty at shirtfront training.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/bruce-petty-20090907-fdvy.html
    Whack! Alan Moir hits out at the ABC’s reliance on the Murdoch press.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Cathy Wilcox on the Vatican’s seismic shift on homosexuality.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Pope just couldn’t resist it!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Simon Letch is singularly unimpressed with the Wallabies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/simon-letch-20090908-ffni.html

  29. Popped over to the GG to look for the big Newspoll headlines ( 😉 ) and golly gosh it is a parallel universe. Newspoll Labor ahead 53-47 ? Nah/ BUT they did have…………

    [PM wins backing for Putin face-off ]

    .
    [Voters give Abbott go-ahead ]

  30. [77
    Socrates

    Briefly, regarding China, the economist I know who studies them most closely thinks that it is corruption and nepotism, not debt, that is now slowing them down most.]

    The problems in China are all inter-related – corruption and over-investment are linked at every level. There has been massive debt-financed investment in every sector of the economy, so that over-production, declining or negative returns and falling new investment are now widespread. In particular there has been colossal over-investment in housing so that declines in demand for basic materials are really completely inevitable.

    This can be seen in falling prices for energy (oil, thermal coal, gas) and bulk materials, especially iron ore and coking coal. The IO price is retreating towards its pre-boom, exchange-rate-adjusted level, now around USD40/tonne, perhaps less. This is completely unavoidable.

    To give you another example from a different sector, there has been a very large and prolonged boom in China in the aqua-cultured production of abalone, once (but no longer) considered to be a rare and valuable delicacy. Supply from China has increased from nil 15 years ago to more than 80,000 tonnes last year. This has driven world production from all sources (excluding Japan), including wild-caught and farmed supplies, from around 5,500 tonnes pa to more than 100,000 tonnes pa in the last 10 years.

    As a result, global market prices have completely collapsed. Price falls extend to more than 70% in some cases. In some sectors, there is no longer any traded price at all. Meanwhile, the market in China has been closed to all external suppliers and other markets have become completely glutted with excess stocks.

    The global industry faces prolonged stagnation and numerous closures. Generally-speaking, the global industry now generates negative returns in almost all sectors. The rate of production is now at least 3 times greater than total annual global demand. This is a direct consequence of excess investment and over-production in China, a process impelled by corruption of Government-owned firms and banks and Government agencies.

  31. Tweet from The Grog

    [Bizarre that nowhere on the front page of The Oz do the 2PP numbers in the latest Newspoll get a mention..]

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