BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

Weak polling for the Coalition from Newspoll and Essential Research reverses the recent poll trend, and puts Labor back into a winning position on the BludgerTrack seat projection.

The BludgerTrack pendulum swings back to Labor this week following moves away from the Coalition in both Newspoll and Essential Research – although not Roy Morgan, which was little changed on what for it was an unusually strong result for the Coalition a fortnight ago. Newspoll in particular was a surprise packet, but it should be noted that Labor once again appeared to get the better of rounding on its two-party result. If a simple application of 2013 election flows is made to Newspoll’s rounded primary vote numbers, the result that comes out is 52-48 rather than 53-47. Even so, Newspoll has driven a shift of 1.0% on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred and caused six seats to flip on the seat projection – two in New South Wales, and one each in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

I say “moves away from the Coalition” rather than “moves towards Labor” advisedly, because this particular crop of polling actually found a degree of softness for both major parties. Both are down on the primary vote, the balance being absorbed by the Greens and especially “others”. The “others” result from Essential this week was at an equal high since it began reporting Palmer United separately last November. Newspoll’s didn’t change, but it was high in absolute terms – something it’s been making a habit of lately, as Kevin Bonham explains.

The other manifestation of collective major party weakness came from Newspoll’s leadership ratings, which have caused fairly substantial shifts to the relevant BludgerTrack readings. The uptick to Tony Abbott that was showing up in recent weeks has well and truly been blunted, and a weak result for Bill Shorten has also caused his upward trend towards parity on net approval to disappear. With both leaders down on net satisfaction to about the same degree compared with last week, there is little change this week on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,018 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

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  1. [From the first day we met, I was certain that he was the one with whom I would share my life. I’ve never had cause to doubt that judgement since.]

    There are many other areas of your judgement that you never have cause to doubt, Fran.

  2. Re Abbott’s speech today about the War Memorial being a terrorist target.

    Does anyone else get the feeling that no one is listening and Abbott may have jumped the shark on his Lord Protector shtick?

  3. [Does anyone else get the feeling that no one is listening and Abbott may have jumped the shark on his Lord Protector shtick?]

    It should be obvious to everyone that he desperately wants a terrorist attack here in Australia. He has milked the dead insulation installers for all they are worth and now he needs some new bodies.

    He is a truly disgusting individual.

  4. Fran a lovely comment by you
    I too have a similar experience but of about 57 years duration…and we are just celebrating the final end to study for our clever grand-daugher(one of 5 girls )who is just 18

    Having .grand-children is a great experience too (with one grand-son- about 10..our 2nd son’s child) … an American) who with his parents is experiencing China now …his heritage on his Mother’s side..and meeting his chinese grandparents…and pracising his chinese language which he learns in Chicago

  5. Also some question like
    “Do you think the government is doing enough for Ebola?”

    50% Yes

    I don’t remember the other numbers but it was about 30% no and 20% don’t know.

  6. [Fran Barlow
    Posted Friday, October 24, 2014 at 4:37 pm | PERMALINK
    Today, is the 32nd anniversary of the day I met hubby.

    From the first day we met, I was certain that he was the one with whom I would share my life. I’ve never had cause to doubt that judgement since.

    He is my lover, my peer, my partner in life and parenting, my comfort, my mentor and the wisest person I know. I am a much better person than I was in October 1982, and he more than any other thing is the inspiration for my growth. We are not married, but until death do us part.

    There will be a celebration this evening and a few tears. I will remind him, though he needs none, that finding him has proved more valuable to me than any personal fortune that might have fallen into my hands in a fantasy. With him, no adversity is too great to bear, and without him, no personal advantage more than banal consolation.]

    How very poetic Fran

    Happy anniversary to the two of you – and may there be many more.

  7. Thanks Darn, Deb, Feeney, Astro, Nicholas and BW. I’m looking forward to a fabulous evening. Deb, 57 years is impressive indeed and doubtless you can understand well enough what I shared.

    Grandchildren are indeed a treasure. I’m sure if I get one I’ll be back here sharing the joy.

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