Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll runs against the recent trend in recording a bounce in Labor’s lead. Other big news: Fairfax set to return to the polling game following Nielsen’s recent shutdown.

A tale of four pollsters:

Newspoll

GhostWhoVotes relates the first Newspoll in four weeks has delivered Labor its best poll result in some time, with a two-party lead of 53-47 that compares with 51-49 last time. The Coalition is off three points on the primary vote to 38%, but the direct beneficiaries are the Greens, up three to 14%, with Labor steady on 34%. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 53%, but Bill Shorten’s numbers have also declined – his approval is down three to 35%, and disapproval up three to a new high of 46%. On preferred prime minister, Shorten closes the gap from 41-37 to 39-38.

The poll also has 63% saying Tony Abbott should “confront” (not “shirt-front”) Vladimir Putin over MH17, against 27% who don’t.

Morgan

This fortnight’s result from Morgan, encompassing 3131 respondents from its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, is little changed on last fortnight, which was the Coalition’s best result from this series since February. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down half a point to 39.5%, Labor is up half a point to 35.5%, and the Greens and Palmer United are unchanged on 12% and 3.5% respectively. On two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the 2013 election, the Labor lead increases just slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences it goes the other way, down from 53-47 to 52-48, minor party preferences evidently having been a little more favourable to the Coalition this time out. Keen poll watchers will be aware that Morgan has lately taken to including two-party preferred breakdowns by age. These results appear to indicate that Morgan’s noted Labor skew is being driven by the younger respondents. I mean to get around to taking a closer look at that some time.

Fairfax Ipsos

The big news in polldom this week is that Fairfax has announced Ipsos, a major international market research concern whose local operation Iview has done some scattered online polling around the place this year, will fill the void created by Nielsen’s shutdown earlier in the year. Best of all, it will replicate Nielsen’s methods in conducting live interview phone polling from 1400 respondents each month. State polling will also be conducted, starting with a Victorian poll which we can expect very shortly.

Essential Research

It will, as always, publish its weekly result at around 2pm EST. Watch this space.

UPDATE: Essential concurs with Newspoll in having Labor’s lead at 53-47, which is up from 52-47 last time, although the primary vote numbers suggests there’s not much in the shift: the Coalition is down a point to 40% and everyone else is steady, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 3%. Some indication as to why the Coalition is in this position is provided by a further question on perceptions of economic indicators, with very large majorities finding everything has gotten worse except for “company profits”. Forty-four per cent think their own financial situation is worse versus 16% for better, and the economy overall fares similarly. Other findings are that 66% favour voluntary euthanasia with 14% opposed, and 58% believing Australia is doing enough to fight Ebola versus 21% for not enough.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,268 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Nicholas

    I agree that union delegates should be just that – people elected by union members to represent them at conference, not a bunch of surly draftees who would rather be spending their weekend somewhere else.

    I agree that the rank and file should have the same say in Senate preselections that they do in selecting Lower House candidates. I believe, however, that a mechanism also needs to exist to over turn preselections for various (and often unstatable) reasons).

    The problem with discussing Labor party reforms is that each state has its own set of rules and ways of operation. People tend to assume that the way the Labor party operates in their state is the way it operates in every one. WA, for example, has (what seems to be) a very archaic preselection system.

    NSW and Queensland have already adopted policies for rank and file preselection of Senate candidates.

    Victoria’s factional chiefs are doing some rather hasty rearrangement of deckchairs precisely because they know that similar changes will occur here – almost certainly by the end of next year, and probably sooner.

    Because each state has its own set of rules and its own procedures, reform can’t be mandated overnight.

    It seems a little strange that people who want the party democratised apparently want democracy dictated to it, rather than allowing members the time to consider and debate change.

  3. [1247
    Nicholas

    briefly and zoomster

    What do you think about the proposals for Labor party reform which John Faulkner has advocated for many years?]

    I cannot speak for the NSW ALP, and, if I could, I doubt I would be ventilating my thoughts here.

    For my own, I have a proposal that I’ve raised privately with my friends and co-members in WA Labor. My proposal is not the same as Faulkner’s. It is more experimental and is intended to harness and unify social behaviours and political sensitivities.

    My thinking is not institutional, as such, but collaborative. It is intended to be dynamic, non-prescriptive, democratic in its political construction and both inclusive and demotic in its form and means.

    I have no idea if it will get off the ground. But whether it does or not, I will not be placing my own perceptions ahead of the views of the party, who are doubtless much wiser than I.

  4. I’ve just done another Wayback raid and come up with Morgan federal primaries for the following years:

    1960-72
    1977-1980 term
    1984-1987 term

    Anyone wants these puppies in Excel form whack me an email at k_bonham@tassie.net.au

    All data from 1960 on was at some stage on Morgan’s site but appears lost to the mists of time. I might fill in the gaps with my hand scribbled data at some stage, or do a cleaned up copy next year electronically when I get full access to the copies again.

  12. KBonham 1255,

    I like your blogg, but your promotion style is getting a little old. We are in the mid-cycle of this term, and we are in the mid-cycle of interesting leaders. Politics is in a duel boring cycle.

    The next election will be interesting because if the LNP can’t figure out how to talk the economy up, the ALP will win by being boring.

  13. Late night gossip- heard from an impeccable source that a recent appointee to Infrastructure Australia has no qualifications for the role…his only skill is that he is Tony Abbott’s jogging partner…

    This is our government folks…what a joke…

  14. [1263
    liyana

    Late night gossip- heard from an impeccable source that a recent appointee to Infrastructure Australia has no qualifications for the role…his only skill is that he is Tony Abbott’s jogging partner…

    This is our government folks…what a joke…]

    Of course, the Government have tried to exempt their infrastructure spending plans from review by IA. So far, they haven’t succeeded, but they intend to pay as little heed to IA as they can get away with.

  15. Ottowa now – gunman injures a soldier then manages to get through security into the Parliament building, MP’s told to hide in offices

  17. I guess Rupert is especially skilled & connected in the Oil industry

    Israel has granted oil exploration rights inside Syria, in the occupied Golan Heights, to Genie Energy. Major shareholders of Genie Energy – which also has interests in shale gas in the United States and shale oil in Israel – include Rupert Murdoch and Lord Jacob Rothschild. This from a 2010 Genie Energy press release:

    http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2013/02/israel-grants-oil-rights-in-syria-to-murdoch-and-rothschild/

    Anytime you have a self serving media owner looking after number one it is a danger to democracy

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