A tale of four pollsters:
Newspoll
GhostWhoVotes relates the first Newspoll in four weeks has delivered Labor its best poll result in some time, with a two-party lead of 53-47 that compares with 51-49 last time. The Coalition is off three points on the primary vote to 38%, but the direct beneficiaries are the Greens, up three to 14%, with Labor steady on 34%. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 53%, but Bill Shorten’s numbers have also declined – his approval is down three to 35%, and disapproval up three to a new high of 46%. On preferred prime minister, Shorten closes the gap from 41-37 to 39-38.
The poll also has 63% saying Tony Abbott should “confront” (not “shirt-front”) Vladimir Putin over MH17, against 27% who don’t.
Morgan
This fortnight’s result from Morgan, encompassing 3131 respondents from its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, is little changed on last fortnight, which was the Coalition’s best result from this series since February. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down half a point to 39.5%, Labor is up half a point to 35.5%, and the Greens and Palmer United are unchanged on 12% and 3.5% respectively. On two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the 2013 election, the Labor lead increases just slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences it goes the other way, down from 53-47 to 52-48, minor party preferences evidently having been a little more favourable to the Coalition this time out. Keen poll watchers will be aware that Morgan has lately taken to including two-party preferred breakdowns by age. These results appear to indicate that Morgan’s noted Labor skew is being driven by the younger respondents. I mean to get around to taking a closer look at that some time.
Fairfax Ipsos
The big news in polldom this week is that Fairfax has announced Ipsos, a major international market research concern whose local operation Iview has done some scattered online polling around the place this year, will fill the void created by Nielsen’s shutdown earlier in the year. Best of all, it will replicate Nielsen’s methods in conducting live interview phone polling from 1400 respondents each month. State polling will also be conducted, starting with a Victorian poll which we can expect very shortly.
Essential Research
It will, as always, publish its weekly result at around 2pm EST. Watch this space.
UPDATE: Essential concurs with Newspoll in having Labor’s lead at 53-47, which is up from 52-47 last time, although the primary vote numbers suggests there’s not much in the shift: the Coalition is down a point to 40% and everyone else is steady, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 3%. Some indication as to why the Coalition is in this position is provided by a further question on perceptions of economic indicators, with very large majorities finding everything has gotten worse except for “company profits”. Forty-four per cent think their own financial situation is worse versus 16% for better, and the economy overall fares similarly. Other findings are that 66% favour voluntary euthanasia with 14% opposed, and 58% believing Australia is doing enough to fight Ebola versus 21% for not enough.
Liberal mates selected to Review Education Curriculum
Questions over curriculum experts’ links to Coalition…
Several of the 14 subject specialists chosen by Dr Donnelly and Professor Wiltshire had close links to the Coalition and conservative think tanks.
Including the disgraceful Barry Spurr.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/questions-over-curriculum-experts-links-to-coalition-20141022-119×24.html#ixzz3GrxTGAyc
Liberal mates selected to Review Education Curriculum
Questions over curriculum experts’ links to Coalition…
Several of the 14 subject specialists chosen by Dr Donnelly and Professor Wiltshire had close links to the Coalition and conservative think tanks.
Including the disgraceful Barry Spurr.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/questions-over-curriculum-experts-links-to-coalition-20141022-119×24.html#ixzz3GrxTGAyc
[This could be the end of Minister Robb]
No great loss. It’s not as if he sets the ministry on fire with his brilliance.
However, just further evidence of Abbott’s lie that the Liberals would be a grown up govt, and that he had a team ready to govern from day one.
Looks like Newspoll shocked Labor enough to turn their opposition guns on the progressive side of politics. Trust Labor to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I suppose we’ll be getting a lot more anti-Green nonsense as Victoria goes to the polls.
What shadow portfolio would labor give Christine Milne – internal security Minister ?
Larissa Walters – defence ?
Ludlum – public enlightenment ?
AA – You left out the big one – mobile phones which can tell people/ Government where you are/ where you have been and when.
A big help to Police on a daily basis.
Bemused and Others
I really cannot understand the constant hostility towards the Greens.
Certainly, some of their policies are dream-time as the know they will never be able to implement them.
Ultimately, though, Labor and Greens rely on each others’ preferences at elections.
Surely Labor will be wanting their preferences at the upcoming Victorian election as will the Greens want Labors’.
Am I missing some thing in this whole debate?
Kevin Rudd will be on Lateline tonight to discuss the Whitlam legacy
[I suppose we’ll be getting a lot more anti-Green nonsense as Victoria goes to the polls.]
At the last Victorian election the Greens produced the mother of all nuff nuff campaign ads pitching to rural voters by depicting older rural residents as ignorant, slow numpties. From memory even William declared it among the worst election campaign adverts he’d ever seen.
So who knows what the Greens have in store for election watchers this time around! 😉
1208
The ALP will certainly be needing Green preferences in marginal Legislative Assembly seats and will probably need them in the Legislative Council, in some regions (probably Northern and Southern Metro and possibly others) but not all.
The Greens will be needing ALP preferences in the Legislative Council, again some regions and not others (probably Western Metro and possibly others), and hopefully in Prahran as well.
z
[Labor will have majority government again, and probably a lot sooner than you think.]
Not sure when we will see a party with an absolute majority in the upper house though.
Everything@1193
Not with the ethical standards Libs apply to themselves and each other.
feeney@1208
Actually, you seem to have summed it up pretty well – the Greens get away with the policies they have because they can never be called on to implement them – something for which the rest of Australia should be eternally grateful.
This makes it very difficult for the majors (Labor or Liberal) to take them seriously, yet both sides want their preferences.
Hence the “dynamic tension” here on PB. It’s a bit like having a rich but mad uncle – you need to be nice to the old coot because he could leave you a nice inheritance.
No majority government is like a 1 in 20 year possibility for labor, it’s only exceeded 40 per cent once in that time and that was because of Rudd who had to be knifed ( if you recall) probably more like a 1 in 50 chance now. Better come to terms with the greens I say.
I know. They should be kissing the ground that Greens walk on, grateful for the 80 percent of Green voters who preference Labor ahead of the Coalition. When they attack the Greens, they attack the better angels of their own natures. They attack the kingmakers who enable them to form government.
I believe that Green and Labor parliamentarians and candidates should observe a strict non-aggression pact. All differences between Green and Labor policies should be expressed respectfully like this:
“The Greens are patriots who have our nation’s best interests at heart. They come to this issue from a different perspective. They began their history in the environmental movement – a great force for positive change which has given us a cleaner world and a more resilient economy. But the Greens today are so much more than an environmental party. They have thoughtful policies on all subjects. We in the Labor party have not reached the same conclusions on every issue but like us the Greens know that our society is strongest when wealth and political power are not concentrated in the hands of a privileged few. That’s why we recommend that you vote 1 for Labor and 2 for the Greens.”
“The Labor Party has been and continues to be a great force for good in our country. They govern for all of us, not just for a privileged few. We and the Labor party differ on some issues because we approach the issues from different histories and different perspectives. Labor is Australia’s oldest political party with an impressive record of lifting millions of people out of poverty and breaking down barriers of class. Its origins are in the workers’ movement, and it continues that proud tradition today. Unions are necessary for balance in the workplace. The power of employers must be checked. Nobody should have unchecked power – that leads to abuse and exploitation. Today the Labor party is more than a party for workers. It is a party for workers, for professionals, for business owners, for commerce and for industry. If you share the Green party’s agenda for our country, please vote 1 for the Greens and 2 for Labor. It is very important that we avoid the damage which a Liberal National Government would do to our economy and to our quality of life.”
I believe that the Greens should recommend a number 2 vote for Labor on every How To Vote card in every election at every level. Labor should do the same for the Greens. The Greens Senate tickets should put Labor second; Labor Senate tickets should put the Greens second.
Finally, the Labor and Green parliamentary teams should hold joint meetings once every two or three months to coordinate messages and strategies.
No doubt you’d be the first to rat the warm corpse player one !
feeney@1208
Read my 702 about the grave robbers.
Does Gough get a State Funeral?
ESJ
ah well, then, we’ll join the Libs, who also rely on a minor party to form government.
Everything@1219
Private cremation, public memorial service.
The memorial service might get classified as a ‘State Funeral’ or of equal status.
I’ve always supported pr zoomster
Everything … Agree, where are the Victoria State Polls….?? Only 37 sleeps to the election.
The punters at Betfair have the ALP at 1.21 and the LNP at 4, which seems ridiculously short odds.
[ah well, then, we’ll join the Libs, who also rely on a minor party to form government.]
Not in 1975, 1977, 1996 or 2004
Nicholas
[I believe that Green and Labor parliamentarians and candidates should observe a strict non-aggression pact….]
a bit rich from someone who says they come here to attack Labor!
Rossmore@1223
For the Libs?
1212
Because of the Coalition being 2(+, depending on categorisation of Qld LNP and NT CLP) parties, proportional representation and the Greens on the left of the ALP, it is unlikely to happen again. No single party has been in a majority since the 1951 DD ended the ALP`s majority caused by their victory (under the old majoritarian preferential system) in 5 out of 6 states in 1946.
Or 2013 if you include the Qld LNP as Libs!
ModLib
and I think Labor has had government in their own right over that same period, too.
1224
They did not need them, in the HoR, but still went into Coalition with them them. You also missed out 1966.
Had the old majoritarian system in the Senate survived, the Liberals may not have needed the Country Party/Nationals in those terms.
Therewill be no Labor Govt anywhere without the close pref cooperation with the Greens…which always happens
In Victoria I think the Greens will win two more Upper House seats to give them 5 seats and probably the balance of power there ,which they had formerly
Oddly the Libs could damage Labor by giving prefs to the Greens in 4 or 5 Lower House seats and thereby increasing their strength
This is anathema to the hard-line conservative like Finn abd (Fed) Andrews who hate the Greens on matter like same-sex marriage ,abortion ad euthenasia…which are a draw card for the Greens from many progressive voters who have given up on Labor,in many ways dominated by the DLP-like ALP Right(spot the difference if you can ?)
Th rise in Green votes on recent polls can be seen to reflect the views of some voters who find Labor policies re security ands war,to be timid in the extreme ..a carbon copy of Abbott
I think the Greens will poll their best ever vote in Victoria
Bemused 1226 one of the positives I’m observing is that there’s no sign of hubris or overconfidence yet from the ALP. Altho I did hear Steve Bracks is chairing a group of ALP elders providing sage advice to the ALP in the event they do win. Again a very sensible approach.
1966 was 61/124 seats for the Libs so not quite enough that year.
[Looks like Newspoll shocked Labor enough to turn their opposition guns on the progressive side of politics. Trust Labor to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I suppose we’ll be getting a lot more anti-Green nonsense as Victoria goes to the polls.]
Yes its not clear why the ALP thinks this is a good electoral strategy. Never been convinced its actually pragmatic. The MSM will do the job for you anyway so its wasted energy.
Far smarter was Andrews’ conversion to the E-W opposition – thats what’ll actually save those inner city seats for the ALP.
Rossmore 1232 and Bemused 1226- a well connected source of mine reported recently that Vic ALP’s internal polling continues to show them in a winning position, as it has for more than a year. People are also aware though that in 2010 the position deteriorated very close to the election, and so no one is assuming it’s in the bag.
[
Or 2013 if you include the Qld LNP as Libs!]
Sir Joh would be spinning in his grave!
1213
The easiest gains against the Coalition, in the Legislative Council, are mostly for the ALP. Northern Metro (the Coalition need a swing to them to retain their second seat there, gained at the 2010 election, because of the redistribution), Western Metro (another 2010 Coalition gain off the ALP), Southern Metro (another Coalition gain in 2010) and Western Victoria (a 2010 gain off the DLP, who won on ALP preferences ahead of the Greens) where the Greens have a chance.
max: how comfortable is the Vic ALP position?
Rossmore@1232
Yes, hubris is the last thing we want from the ALP Team.
Dennis didn’t do too well with Jon Faine this morning.
Faine gave Jill Hennessy a (shadow Transport Minister) hard time too. She really needs to find some better answers to a couple of things, the most significant being what will you do if Abbott won’t fund the proposed railway line?
[
Ludlum – public enlightenment ?]
Hehe – naughty!
I don’t come here to attack Labor. I come here to read about political news through the eyes of people who like politics as much as I do.
I made a tongue in cheek remark about supplying a service of poking the Labor party with a stick. If I know how to make a tongue in cheek emoticon I would have used one next to that line. You know that I am a friend of Labor and want it do well. That sentiment comes through in all of my posts about Labor.
I say tongue in cheek because I know that I won’t change the minds of Labor members. If someone of John Faulkner’s stature and prestige can’t persuade Labor members that the party needs major reforms, a random Green on a discussion board certainly won’t.
leftye
simply because a first preference is better than a second preference – for a number of reasons.
[That sentiment comes through in all of my posts about Labor.]
Obviously it doesn’t.
[1147
Nicholas
This is pure schadenfreude. Of course you’re not depressed it. You are uplifted by it and take immense pleasure from it. It enables you to toast your otherwise unrequited eminence.
I derive no enjoyment from Labor’s self-inflicted wounds. You see, for me it isn’t about a party.]
Bollocks. You celebrate the difficulty of your purported allies and could-be suitors. Many times each day you rehearse the same lament….as if it matters at all, at all…Who has rejected whom? I wonder..
1122
Fran Barlow
I agree completely, Fran.
1171
confessions
Posted Wednesday, October 22, 2014 at 9:11 pm | Permalink
I will investigate 🙂
briefly and zoomster
What do you think about the proposals for Labor party reform which John Faulkner has advocated for many years?
Why does the party ignore his advice?
Max … Quite right. Victians have a habit of upsetting the received wisdom of the pundits and punters. Kennett in 1999 and Brumby in 2010.
1248
Victorian keep governments on their toes.
From sceptic’s link at #1201
I give you Christopher Pyne’s select pair [Donnelly and Wiltshire] who then in turn selected, after a ‘rigorous’ process, an ‘independent, ideology free National Education Curriculum Review panel whatever.
14 of them.
1. Former senior adviser to Mal Turnbull
2.Fella who was a critic of Rudd’s GFC stimulus
3.Member of the Menzies Research Centre
– all 3 above associated with IPA and CIS
4.2012 National Liberal party Conference delegate
5.4 persons from private Independent schools
6.3 persons from private Catholic schools
7. I person from public school located in Chris Pyne’s electorate
A couple of others.
Yep. ‘independent and ideology free.’
Sure.