Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll runs against the recent trend in recording a bounce in Labor’s lead. Other big news: Fairfax set to return to the polling game following Nielsen’s recent shutdown.

A tale of four pollsters:

Newspoll

GhostWhoVotes relates the first Newspoll in four weeks has delivered Labor its best poll result in some time, with a two-party lead of 53-47 that compares with 51-49 last time. The Coalition is off three points on the primary vote to 38%, but the direct beneficiaries are the Greens, up three to 14%, with Labor steady on 34%. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 53%, but Bill Shorten’s numbers have also declined – his approval is down three to 35%, and disapproval up three to a new high of 46%. On preferred prime minister, Shorten closes the gap from 41-37 to 39-38.

The poll also has 63% saying Tony Abbott should “confront” (not “shirt-front”) Vladimir Putin over MH17, against 27% who don’t.

Morgan

This fortnight’s result from Morgan, encompassing 3131 respondents from its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, is little changed on last fortnight, which was the Coalition’s best result from this series since February. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down half a point to 39.5%, Labor is up half a point to 35.5%, and the Greens and Palmer United are unchanged on 12% and 3.5% respectively. On two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the 2013 election, the Labor lead increases just slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences it goes the other way, down from 53-47 to 52-48, minor party preferences evidently having been a little more favourable to the Coalition this time out. Keen poll watchers will be aware that Morgan has lately taken to including two-party preferred breakdowns by age. These results appear to indicate that Morgan’s noted Labor skew is being driven by the younger respondents. I mean to get around to taking a closer look at that some time.

Fairfax Ipsos

The big news in polldom this week is that Fairfax has announced Ipsos, a major international market research concern whose local operation Iview has done some scattered online polling around the place this year, will fill the void created by Nielsen’s shutdown earlier in the year. Best of all, it will replicate Nielsen’s methods in conducting live interview phone polling from 1400 respondents each month. State polling will also be conducted, starting with a Victorian poll which we can expect very shortly.

Essential Research

It will, as always, publish its weekly result at around 2pm EST. Watch this space.

UPDATE: Essential concurs with Newspoll in having Labor’s lead at 53-47, which is up from 52-47 last time, although the primary vote numbers suggests there’s not much in the shift: the Coalition is down a point to 40% and everyone else is steady, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 3%. Some indication as to why the Coalition is in this position is provided by a further question on perceptions of economic indicators, with very large majorities finding everything has gotten worse except for “company profits”. Forty-four per cent think their own financial situation is worse versus 16% for better, and the economy overall fares similarly. Other findings are that 66% favour voluntary euthanasia with 14% opposed, and 58% believing Australia is doing enough to fight Ebola versus 21% for not enough.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,268 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. [
    The Indonesian air force has used two of its new Russian built fighter jets to intercept an Australian plane that had violated its airspace.

    A spokesman for the Indonesian air force, First Air Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto, said the civilian plane was detected this morning by radar off southern Maluku in eastern Indonesia.

    The aircraft, a Beechcraft 95, had departed from Darwin and was travelling to Cebu in the Philippines.]

    Beechcraft? Isn’t that where PB’s own Bushfire Bill lives? 😉

  3. [1149
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, October 22, 2014 at 8:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Daz I am just a humble truth teller !]

    I thought you were a seeer !

  4. Well may we say God save the Greens! For nothing will save the once great Australian Labor Party

    That’s a funny line! 🙂 I might share it at a Greens branch meeting.

    I’m an optimist. I think the ALP can be saved. The first step they should take is to enact the party reforms recommended by Labor luminary Senator John Faulkner.

  6. Nicholas

    [I think that if you want that experience, go to church or do transcendental meditation. ]

    I just bought a book by David Lynch (or Twin Peaks fame) on transcendental meditation. I haven’t started it yet but I’m hoping TM isn’t like party politics.

    I think the analogy is more of very biased football supporters.

  8. Nicholas

    [In the long term I’d like a unicameral national legislature elected by a proportional voting system.]

    If we’re going down this path I personally prefer the MMP to keep local representation.

    The reason why I prefer the two houses is because one represent the people and the other the states.

    If you have a pure PR, it will appear that the decisions of Sydneysiders and Melbournians will have more impact than say a town in rural NT or Tasmania.

    Anyway both the left and right parties learn that FPTP splits votes like we have seen in the UK and those who favour returning to it will start cursing when they come across this scenario where two similarly aligned parties will split votes and hand it to an single opposing party.

  9. I just bought a book by David Lynch (or Twin Peaks fame) on transcendental meditation. I haven’t started it yet but I’m hoping TM isn’t like party politics.

    I think the analogy is more of very biased football supporters.

    Hi Diogenes, here is a funny video in which Russell Brand talks about David Lynch and TM.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFtjU1sGBLo

  10. [the four radar stations tasked with keeping an eye on the Australian naval incursions into Indonesian sovereig]

    That’s a bit rich! “Return to sender” is hardly a breach of sovereignty!

    Meanwhile, the Swedes actually have something to worry about — this unknown vessel did not eminate from Sweden…

    http://news.yahoo.com/sweden-gets-two-sightings-hunt-undersea-intruder-goes-182504308–finance.html

    And some theories as to what is going on from the Swedish tabloids

    http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article19724502.ab

  11. Hi Bludgers (and William, if you’re around)

    I have a genuine question for anybody to answer:

    So, there’s always a debate over whether by-elections should be held on the same date. And the assertion by some is it saves money to hold it on the same date. However, is there actually any evidence that the cost of multiple by-elections on the same date is more-than-negligibly different than holding them on separate days? (The operative word there being “evidence”; I don’t just want assertions)

    When I refer to cost, I refer purely to electoral commission and government costs, not costs to political parties.

  13. DL

    [That’s a bit rich! “Return to sender” is hardly a breach of sovereignty!]

    Straw man.

    Australian naval vessals repeatedly entered Indonesian territorial waters.

    The Abbott Government acknowledged that this had happened and apologised for same.

    The fall guys were several Australian naval personnel who were sacked or demoted.

  16. More headaches for Barnett, if the Nationals hold true to their word (big ask IMO, but we’ll see).

    [The Barnett government’s plan to reduce the number of metropolitan council from 30 to 16 has it a hurdle with the National Party ruling out support for forced amalgamations.

    The Nationals will not support a Bill to forced the amalgamation of the cities of Perth and Vincent, one of the key planks of Premier Colin Barnett’s local government reform plans.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/25321407/city-of-perth-may-take-in-qeii-kings-park/

    Since the election his govt has been looking out of control, while simultaneously trying to tough it out, thereby appearing arrogant. No wonder the polling has gone to the dogs for them.

  18. BW

    That 99.9% remark is pure politicking. By the time we come to a point in time that the plane is found, or concluded to be completely lost, many of the people would have long forgotten this statement and swept under the rug.

    In regards to the Indonesian escort of the Australian plane, I doubt this is in control of Jokowi and more to do with the military.

  22. Raara

    The reason why I prefer the two houses is because one represent the people and the other the states.

    I’d like to amend the constitution to abolish the states and just have national and local government. Unlike the United States we do not have dramatically different regionally bound political philosophies. The voters of QLD and WA are somewhat more conservative than voters in South Australia and Victoria, but the differences are nowhere near being in the same league as the difference between the American northeast and the American Deep South, or between the American west coast and the American mid-west. We have one national language and a small population.

    I think it makes sense for us to have a unitary state. We gain nothing from having eight different school systems, eight different hospital systems, eight different criminal codes, defamation laws, professional accreditation systems and so on.

    We are only a federal state because we began as a collection of colonies. One hundred and thirteen years later we have changed profoundly. We have a high degree of national unity. Technology has reduced the salience of physical distance. We want less duplication of resources, less buck passing, and clearer lines of accountability.

    So let’s move on from our colonial origins and adopt a political structure which suits who we are today.

    I’d phase it in over many years. Start with professional accreditation systems. Spend a couple of years nationalizing the government hospitals. Then a couple of years nationalizing the government schools. Then develop a national criminal code.

  23. R

    [In regards to the Indonesian escort of the Australian plane, I doubt this is in control of Jokowi and more to do with the military.]

    That would be the worry, IMHO.

  24. ESJ

    When I joined the party in 1996, I was being told exactly that. Oh, and that the next Labor PM hadn’t been born yet, and the next Victorian Labor government was at least ten years ago.

    Similarly, only six years ago the same things were being said about the Liberals.

    Labor will have majority government again, and probably a lot sooner than you think.

  25. [In fact what you say supports my position a PM would just be dumb to take a DD on a massively contentious trigger – they just don’t do it – and to take a massively contentious trigger opposed by both the greens and the libs would have been suicide. Which is my point.]

    The 1987 DD almost precisely contradicts your claim.

    The trigger was the Australia Card.
    The Australia Card was fairly controversial. (So the idea no PM would do it is not true.)
    The Australia Card was quite unpopular.
    Nonetheless the Australia Card was not a major election and the ALP government was more than comfortably returned.

  26. mimhoff

    [The Labor party must both be more democratic and have the policies and leader that I want.]

    Um, so Labor must democratically decide to do exactly what YOU want?

    You have a very strange idea of democracy.

  27. Re barry Spurr suing New Matilda for accessing/publishing his emails.
    Can any legal eagle explain whether Spurr ‘owns’ the emails sent from his university account?

  28. [
    In regards to the Indonesian escort of the Australian plane, I doubt this is in control of Jokowi and more to do with the military.]

    A show of force to Joko in terms od who is in charge ?

  30. [Mr MacLean’s wife, Kaye, told Fairfax Media that her husband’s job was as a “ferry pilot” and that this plane had been sold and was being taken to the Philippines.
    “He ferries planes all around the world.”
    She believed her husband would have been well versed in obtaining permission for over-flights because he did it all the time.
    “I think there’s a misunderstanding,” she said.
    Mr Jacklin is also described as a delivery-flight expert.]

  31. [Can any legal eagle explain whether Spurr ‘owns’ the emails sent from his university account?]

    It has already been established that it is highly unlikely he would.

  32. [The 1987 DD almost precisely contradicts your claim.
    The trigger was the Australia Card.
    The Australia Card was fairly controversial. (So the idea no PM would do it is not true.)
    The Australia Card was quite unpopular.
    Nonetheless the Australia Card was not a major election and the ALP government was more than comfortably returned.]

    And of course, afterwards someone worked out that passing the legislation at a joint sitting (against a Senate majority) was futile, since a Senate majority can disallow any supporting regulations…

  33. Nicholas

    Bit of a pipe dream there. The Commonwealth of Australia will only turn into The Republic of Australia in a Sukarno-esque reform.

  34. No voter thinks ‘oh, It’s a DD, I’ll go about exercising my vote in a completely different way’. DD elections turn on the fundamentals that every other election does, which are never referenda on a single issue, not the 98 GST election, not the 87 Australia Card election, no election ever.

    In early 2010 Rudd was still very popular, the government was still riding high in the polls and the Liberal Party was divided and led by an unpopular leader.

    Of course they would have won.

  35. [However, is there actually any evidence that the cost of multiple by-elections on the same date is more-than-negligibly different than holding them on separate days?]

    I can’t offer you anything too definitive, but this link from the AEC is instructive.

    http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/australian_electoral_history/Cost_of_Election_1901_Present.htm

    The Gippsland by-election cost more than the simultaneous Lyne/M ayo and Bradfield/Higgins by-elections. Looking at the links to the breakdowns for those held in 2008, “Travel”, “Advertising”, “ITC Services” and “Property, Office Supplies & Services” for Bradfield and Higgins combined seemed to be about as much as for Gippsland by itself. For some reason, “Election Cardboard & Supplies” seemed to cost 10 times as much for Gippsland as either Bradfield or Higgins.

  36. Sandgropia’s Emperor Colin the First is being a little less than gracious.

    [Colin Barnett: Gough Whitlam should not be remembered as a great PM

    WA Premier Colin Barnett has said that while he changed Australia’s thinking and modernised Australia, Gough Whitlam should not be remembered as “a great prime minister”.
    ]
    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/colin-barnett-gough-whitlam-should-not-be-remembered-as-a-great-pm-20141021-1199xp.html#ixzz3GrslmzEl

  37. 1175

    After the election the Australia Card was not put to a joint sitting because it required lots of regulations (stupidly even the coming into force of the act was to be via regulation, rather than the usual method of proclamation) to work and the Coalition and the Democrats would have voted the regulations down.

    In order for joint sittings to work effectively, the Senate needs to have its power to vote down regulations made under legislation passed at joint sittings, during the term of the HoR elected at the DD, reduced to calling some sort of joint sitting (probably a joint sitting of the whole, for constitutional reasons, if indeed it is constitutional at all to do this without a referendum) to test the regulation on its joint sitting majority rather than its Senate numbers.

  38. The fact the ABS is stating that power bills have gone 5% with the repeal of the carbon price is proof of one of two things

    1. Either the Liberals lied about the size of the increase, with them regularly claiming anything up to 10%

    2. The power companies haven’t reduced the cost by removing the full increase by the amount the Liberals told us it went up.

    Then for the 5% to equate to Abbott’s promise of $550 a year a person would have to have had an annual power bill of $11,000

  39. [In early 2010 Rudd was still very popular, the government was still riding high in the polls and the Liberal Party was divided and led by an unpopular leader.

    Of course they would have won.]

    Totally agree. And into the bargain we would’ve gotten rid of Fielding much sooner, and seen fewer Greens elected to the Senate.

  41. As I recall it, no one really talked about the Australia Card much at the time of the 1987 election. But then, after the election, a big campaign against it was conjured up — partly by anti-Labor media outlets, but also by Peter Garrett.

  42. We all have;

    Medicare card, Driver’s licence, credit cards, e-mail accounts, Facebook, blog sites like this one, Twitter….and people worry about the information Govt can source and store

  44. [The reason why I prefer the two houses is because one represent the people and the other the states.]

    The Senate hasn’t ‘represented the states’ in any meaningful way beyond ensuring that there are Senators resident in each state. (Ok, psephpedants, that is not technically guaranteed.)

    You could always require (small) quotas from each state within a single national vote.

  46. William

    [But then, after the election, a big campaign against it was conjured up — partly by anti-Labor media outlets]

    Vague memory banks remember in the Australian , wot I always read back then, it being portrayed as heading towards us becoming like East Germany and even a bit of Adolph with “Papers please”. Personal interest at the time close to zero.

  47. EStJ

    [Treacherous and perfidious greens eh Fran ? Stabbed old Kevin in the back like the rest of them your lot did.]

    Either your receptive or expressive literacy is poor. I do find the allusion to ‘Albion’ amusing and ironic of course.

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