A tale of four pollsters:
Newspoll
GhostWhoVotes relates the first Newspoll in four weeks has delivered Labor its best poll result in some time, with a two-party lead of 53-47 that compares with 51-49 last time. The Coalition is off three points on the primary vote to 38%, but the direct beneficiaries are the Greens, up three to 14%, with Labor steady on 34%. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 53%, but Bill Shorten’s numbers have also declined – his approval is down three to 35%, and disapproval up three to a new high of 46%. On preferred prime minister, Shorten closes the gap from 41-37 to 39-38.
The poll also has 63% saying Tony Abbott should “confront” (not “shirt-front”) Vladimir Putin over MH17, against 27% who don’t.
Morgan
This fortnight’s result from Morgan, encompassing 3131 respondents from its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, is little changed on last fortnight, which was the Coalition’s best result from this series since February. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down half a point to 39.5%, Labor is up half a point to 35.5%, and the Greens and Palmer United are unchanged on 12% and 3.5% respectively. On two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the 2013 election, the Labor lead increases just slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences it goes the other way, down from 53-47 to 52-48, minor party preferences evidently having been a little more favourable to the Coalition this time out. Keen poll watchers will be aware that Morgan has lately taken to including two-party preferred breakdowns by age. These results appear to indicate that Morgan’s noted Labor skew is being driven by the younger respondents. I mean to get around to taking a closer look at that some time.
Fairfax Ipsos
The big news in polldom this week is that Fairfax has announced Ipsos, a major international market research concern whose local operation Iview has done some scattered online polling around the place this year, will fill the void created by Nielsen’s shutdown earlier in the year. Best of all, it will replicate Nielsen’s methods in conducting live interview phone polling from 1400 respondents each month. State polling will also be conducted, starting with a Victorian poll which we can expect very shortly.
Essential Research
It will, as always, publish its weekly result at around 2pm EST. Watch this space.
UPDATE: Essential concurs with Newspoll in having Labor’s lead at 53-47, which is up from 52-47 last time, although the primary vote numbers suggests there’s not much in the shift: the Coalition is down a point to 40% and everyone else is steady, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 3%. Some indication as to why the Coalition is in this position is provided by a further question on perceptions of economic indicators, with very large majorities finding everything has gotten worse except for “company profits”. Forty-four per cent think their own financial situation is worse versus 16% for better, and the economy overall fares similarly. Other findings are that 66% favour voluntary euthanasia with 14% opposed, and 58% believing Australia is doing enough to fight Ebola versus 21% for not enough.
Everything@1092
The compensation was generous and not tied to electricity consumption. So a smart family cutting electricity consumption benefited DUE TO THE COMPENSATION, not the carbon price.
I think Rudd was wrong to adopt the terminology used by the MSM and LNP gang. Of course he was not really able to do much else due to Gillard wrongly agreeing it was a tax.
zoomster@1094
Well there you go, my classical education ended in High School. You should be way in front of me. 😀
Nice to see the Gough tributes even burkey in full lisp had a very pleasing quality to it!
US Senate Update:
Princeton Election Consortium: Republicans 51-49 now
(with 55% chance of Republican control predicted by election day)
RealClearPolitics: Republicans 53-47
Electoral-vote: Republicans 51-49
Election Projection: 52-38
http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote
3.5 million have early voted so far. About 60 million voted in 2010.
99%?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-22/malaysian-defence-minister-believes-mh370-will-be-found/5834060
[There would have been nothing twattish about having a DD before Copenhagen. Labor would have been highly likely to retain government and to face a more favourable Senate. Then the ETS could have been passed and Kevin Rudd could have gone to Copenhagen a hero.
]
This would be sensible if the greens had been lockstep in support of Rudd. They weren’t and it is just totally silly. I’m very happy to agree that Rudd was very risk adverse and to his own detriment but it is fantasy stuff to think anything other than massive landslide loss if Rudd had gone to a DD with a carbon price opposed by both liberals and the greens – and that is the only kind of DD he could have had at anytime.
MH made the point that came to my mind.
A 5% decrease in power costs – which may may make up say 5% of the household budget, compared to a 3.5% increase in food costs which may make up 20% of the household budget, is a more accurate state of play.
It was also pointed out that the decline in the CPI came about through a decline in economic activity.
The laughable amount in reduced public transport costs in Perth, together with a day free of fares, just about sums up the impact.
Where are all those pathetic creatures part of the ad campaign against the CT by the way?
I wonder if their world is not roses and chocolates or they are still as stupid as they were when they participated in the ads?
[bemused
…..I think Rudd was wrong to adopt the terminology used by the MSM and LNP gang. Of course he was not really able to do much else due to Gillard wrongly agreeing it was a tax.]
Good on you bemused. You are big enough to admit Rudd was wrong on something.
The Gillardistas can never admit that she did anything wrong!
MYEFO is the next test for the Abbott.
If Abbott and Hockey can’t sell the MYEFO mini-budget I predict that Leadershit will ramp up.
Which brings me to this question: ‘Is there any evidence at all that Morrison knows more than your average happy clapper about economics?’
What I find depressing is that John Faulkner, the lion of the Senate and a first-rate intellect, makes an eloquent case for ALP reform every few years and his party never listens. They admire the guy but they tune out his ideas.
E.
Great. The US will grind to a halt.
Boerwar:
Well, I am predicting (and indeed betting) that the Republicans DO NOT gain control.
I think the pollsters are making the same mistake as last cycle- underestimating the non-white vote. The minimum wage and immigration reform issues will bring out Black and Latino voters IMO…….
Everything@1108
I always have.
And I believe every Labor Prime Minister has sometimes got things either wrong or not chosen the best option. So what?
Still miles in front of the alternatives.
Everything@1112
For once I hope you are right.
[Federal MP Clive Palmer’s wife, Anna, will not be the Palmer United Party candidate for the Gold Coast seat of Gaven after being overlooked for preselection.
Anna Palmer was one of three people who nominated for preselection, but local businessman Adam Marcinkowski was endorsed as the PUP Gaven candidate.]
E.
I note you did not mention Obamacare. What impact will it have on the election, IYHO?
Incidentally, you will all be delighted to know that Flegg lives, if somewhat tenuously.
He has the opportunity to impress the preselection committee.
Flegettes and Moggillites will be relieved:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-20/lnp-delegates-reject-christian-rowan-as-replacement-for-flegg/5828492
Bet they needed a change of undies!
[Two Indonesian fighter jets have forced an Australian pilot to land his small plane after he allegedly violated the airspace over Sulawesi.
The fighter jets forced pilot Graeme Paul Jackline and his Australian co-pilot, Richard Wayne McLean, to land at Manado, Sulawesi, around 10.30am local time on Wednesday.
They were alone in their small plane flying from Darwin to Cebu in the Philippines.]
That would never happen in the ALP Dee, WAG’s are shown proper respect in that party!
Dee
It is a bit bizzaro.
I wonder if it is one of Prawbowo’s mates testing Joko’s mettle?
WWP
[This would be sensible if the greens had been lockstep in support of Rudd. They weren’t and it is just totally silly. I’m very happy to agree that Rudd was very risk adverse and to his own detriment but it is fantasy stuff to think anything other than massive landslide loss if Rudd had gone to a DD with a carbon price opposed by both liberals and the greens – and that is the only kind of DD he could have had at anytime.]
Of course, if instead of messing about negotiating with the LNP and trying to wedge both us and them, Rudd had announced that he meant to follow Garnaut in full and had made it clear that any resistance by the LNP would result in a DD he’d have had our support, so your claim is a hypothesis contrary to the reality. Rudd instead contrived a scheme that he knew we wouldn’t support precisely so he could concentrate on wedging Turnbull and being the sole architect of what emerged.
In practice, as Abbott made clear, the LNP would have rolled over had he done that, though they might not have dumped Turnbull, which didn’t suit Rudd at all, and might have forced him to share some of the kudos with us. Narcissist that he was, he was never wearing that cost.
Interestingly, Obamacare approval has been 40% and disapproval 50% for 5 years straight
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html
I can’t see Obamacare having a major effect one way or the other when there has been no discernible change in polling for 5 years (3 elections).
Treacherous and perfidious greens eh Fran ? Stabbed old Kevin in the back like the rest of them your lot did.
Edwina StJohn @ 1103
Nice to see the Gough tributes even burkey in full lisp had a very pleasing quality to it!
Piss off you f*ck’n troll…….
[1110
Nicholas
What I find depressing is that John Faulkner….blah blah]
This is pure schadenfreude. Of course you’re not depressed it. You are uplifted by it and take immense pleasure from it. It enables you to toast your otherwise unrequited eminence.
One of your more intellectual contributions I see pom.
One of the interesting states is Kentucky:
Obamacare has enrolled 500k Kentuckyans.
57% of Kentuckians “disapprove” of Obamacare
22% of Kentuckians “disapprove” of Kynect (which is Obamacare in Kentucky!)
You remember all that ranting and raving about Obamacare from the Republicans in the last few years? In the recent debate, Mitch McConnell said “Its fine” regarding the Obamacare website in Kentucky….in other words, its a state issue, and I have no problem with it.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_mcconnell_vs_grimes-3485.html
The current average is Sen Mitch McConnell (also Republican leader in the Senate) JUST ahead of his Democrat opponent by 4% despite the Democrats having exited from this race and taking their money elsewhere.
Watch this race……it aint impossible for an upset loss for the Republicans here.
[99%?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-22/malaysian-defence-minister-believes-mh370-will-be-found/5834060 ]
I’d say 100%.
After the Americans salvaged the wreckage from near to Diego Garcia, then dumped it at exectly the spot where they say it will be found.
Make that 110%.
Well may we say God save the Greens! For nothing will save the once great Australian Labor Party
BW
I get the distinct feeling there is trouble brewing in the neighbourhood.
max@1130
Ill-founded hubris… much!
I agree.
To say it was once great is absolutely outrageous!!!!
🙂
BB
Those Muricans…
Perhaps the search is a front for getting the Indian Ocean seabed mapped in great detail.
Dee
I can’t recall this happening before.
On Jacquie Lambie and Ebola Infested Zombie Jihadist Death Cults… I do hate to say I told youse so. Two weeks ago I think it was.
Sometimes it pays to have a conspiracy theorist’s mindset.
Edwina StJohn @1127
[One of your more intellectual contributions I see pom.]
And yours was?
“even burkey in full lisp”
Well well; someone still thinks something written in the Australian is worth referencing.
[ Everything
Posted Wednesday, October 22, 2014 at 7:03 pm | Permalink
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/annual-inflation-rate-dips-to-23-per-cent-as-power-prices-fall/story-e6frg926-1227098362128
]
You can trace the decline in werriwa
Gough 1974
Latham 1994
Laurie ferguson 2014
[it is fantasy stuff to think anything other than massive landslide loss if Rudd had gone to a DD with a carbon price opposed by both liberals and the greens – and that is the only kind of DD he could have had at anytime.]
There hasn’t yet been a DD election that even came close to turning on the question of the trigger legislation so to suggest that for the first time ever it clearly and massively would do so is, to me, the extraordinary claim requiring some support.
Excellent use of language Fran but still fantasyland stuff.
There is a lot I disagree with but of this one thing I’m 95% sure. If Rudd had sat down the day after he won and looked at the senate and thought ‘damn that senate I want a DD’ and had run straight to the greens with pure Garnaut and said ‘I need your 100% support it will either pass of the libs support or we will go to a DD after about a year’.
The greens would not have gone for it they would have asked for more and probably leaked as well.
You forget too that Turnbull agreed with Rudd. The whole ‘wedge’ Turnbull thing was Monday night quarterbacking.
On no sensible scenario does a carbon price DD result in a labor win.
To have got a fantasy labor DD win you either needed a labor/green agreed mechanism that was a gentler touch than the CPRS and Turnbull taking an alternate mechanism.
Or a complete meltdown of the libs during a Turnbull led DD.
Mike I’ve never had to resort abuse and swearing – unfortunately some of the simpler party comrades on here are unable to verbalise a logical argument and do fall into these habits .
BW
[ Indonesian Airforce Brigadier General Hadi Tjahjanto said both men were being questioned.
“The plane violated the official path around Saumlaki,” he said, referring to a town in Maluku.
“Because they’re civilians, the case will be under the authority of airport authorities.
“For now they can’t fly, we’re waiting until the results of this investigation.”]
Suppose we/they should be grateful they weren’t shot down.
ESJ:
Haters vs. Lovers
(remember?)
Pyne’s speech and effeminate mannerisms are often mocked on here, so I cannot blame ESJ for picking on one of Labor’s.
But it does belie ESJ so-called independence, since he never mocks LNP figures in a similar way.
I guess if you’re trolling, you need to go after what will get the audience going the most. If you want to troll an AFL forum, you don’t make fatuous comments about “thugby” — you’d sooner talk about ballerina ping pong or such to get people going…
[There hasn’t yet been a DD election that even came close to turning on the question of the trigger legislation so to suggest that for the first time ever it clearly and massively would do so is, to me, the extraordinary claim requiring some support.]
Well skipping the DD bit Keating winning and Howard almost losing both on GST elections might shine a little light in the darkness.
In fact what you say supports my position a PM would just be dumb to take a DD on a massively contentious trigger – they just don’t do it – and to take a massively contentious trigger opposed by both the greens and the libs would have been suicide. Which is my point.
I derive no enjoyment from Labor’s self-inflicted wounds. You see, for me it isn’t about a party. It is about social outcomes. Parties are just instruments for influencing social outcomes. I want Labor to do well.
What do you think about John Faulkner’s proposals for Labor party reform?
I belong to the Greens because I consider them the most democratic party around, their policy platform aligns closely with my views, and I could not bring myself to join the Labor party in its current dilapidated form.
I get the impression from some of the older ALP members who post here that for them a political party is an almost mystical, religious force to be revered. I think that if you want that experience, go to church or do transcendental meditation.
I like the sense of community in the Greens but I belong to other communities too. I don’t take it personally if people criticize the Greens. Like any political party it is an instrument for organizing people with shared interests, supporting candidates for election to parliaments, and influencing social outcomes through legislation. No more, no less. If someone pointed out that my computer was running slowly, and that it could run faster if malware were removed, I wouldn’t take it as a personal attack. The computer is an instrument and instruments need to be kept in good working order.
Dee
For some peculiar reason the Indonesians placed a squadron in Sulawesi to defend Java against Australian naval incursions.
I wonder whether the Australian civilian plane flew over the air base?
Daz I am just a humble truth teller !
BB
[On Jacquie Lambie and Ebola Infested Zombie Jihadist Death Cults]
Still it would be a great ploy by terrorists to say their latest suicide bomber had Ebola. The area would go into meltdown and it would be very hard to find out if it was true or not.