BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

Weak polling for the Coalition from Newspoll and Essential Research reverses the recent poll trend, and puts Labor back into a winning position on the BludgerTrack seat projection.

The BludgerTrack pendulum swings back to Labor this week following moves away from the Coalition in both Newspoll and Essential Research – although not Roy Morgan, which was little changed on what for it was an unusually strong result for the Coalition a fortnight ago. Newspoll in particular was a surprise packet, but it should be noted that Labor once again appeared to get the better of rounding on its two-party result. If a simple application of 2013 election flows is made to Newspoll’s rounded primary vote numbers, the result that comes out is 52-48 rather than 53-47. Even so, Newspoll has driven a shift of 1.0% on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred and caused six seats to flip on the seat projection – two in New South Wales, and one each in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

I say “moves away from the Coalition” rather than “moves towards Labor” advisedly, because this particular crop of polling actually found a degree of softness for both major parties. Both are down on the primary vote, the balance being absorbed by the Greens and especially “others”. The “others” result from Essential this week was at an equal high since it began reporting Palmer United separately last November. Newspoll’s didn’t change, but it was high in absolute terms – something it’s been making a habit of lately, as Kevin Bonham explains.

The other manifestation of collective major party weakness came from Newspoll’s leadership ratings, which have caused fairly substantial shifts to the relevant BludgerTrack readings. The uptick to Tony Abbott that was showing up in recent weeks has well and truly been blunted, and a weak result for Bill Shorten has also caused his upward trend towards parity on net approval to disappear. With both leaders down on net satisfaction to about the same degree compared with last week, there is little change this week on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,018 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

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  1. CTar1

    [So why one Earth are you replying.]

    I am stopping now.

    Mostly because he promotes the idea that the Greens want to disarm Australia. Obviously when someone spreads mis-truths about the Party you support you’d like to challenge them.

    Many Labor supporters here supported that notion, so it was important to expose this as simply trolling and disinformation.

    I think everyone can now safely say that’s not the Greens aim. You can see now that most Labor supporters just wish he’d shut-up about it.

  2. [Between WWP and DavidWH the rest of us should expect missile flights across the Nullarbor.]

    We have been doing that for a few years without any collateral damage CTar 🙂

  3. [Posted Friday, October 24, 2014 at 2:39 pm | PERMALINK
    Between WWP and DavidWH the rest of us should expect missile flights across the Nullarbor.
    We have been doing that for a few years without any collateral damage CTar ]

    My partner might disagree apparently it is bad form to erupt from the study yelling ‘you would not believe what Davidwh is saying’. It always leads to a reminder that it is better to spend time in real world and a list of chores!

  5. Was listening to Tony Delroys’ Program on the night of Goughs’ death. On his “Topic of the Day” the discussion was Gough, and what struck me was when one of the “haters” got on to slag the great man. It reminded me of the famous scene from “Life of Brian”. You know, the “Bloody Romans, what have they ever done for us….”
    Gough’s distractors always say words to the effect of “Bloody Gough..” and then go off on a diatribe about what they see as his great sins, of course they always preface their diatribes with “oh granted, he did ‘some’ good stuff…”.
    And, that’s the thing, no matter how much the right-wing pygmies, like Bolt, like Devine, like Jones,try to bring him down, Whitlam changed our Nation for the better, and it gets quite amusing how even they are forced to acknowledge that, through gritted teeth.
    Gough will be remembered as the man who dragged Australia into the modern era, and changed the place for the better, long after the aforementioned pygmies, as well as their idiot heroes and masters, Abbott and Murdoch, have faded into complete obscurity.

  9. On VIC: I reckon the LNP have jumped the shark with their outrageous, criminal assault on treasury to fund LNP political advertising, for what feels like the last 2 years.

    Honesty, its like state-owned TV down here.

    I think they’ve actually hit the “make it stop” level. People will vote them out of office to make it stop.

  16. Yes, let’s celebrate the life of someone who loved language with a whole heap of tired cliches —

    I’ll add

    “They broke the mould when they made him”

  17. [838
    victoria

    >zoom, vic, poroti
    >It is consistent with Abbott’s past behaviour of explicitly setting things up as targets.

    Precisely. He is a grub]

    Yep. He really is getting desperate. Which means he is now at his most dangerous.

  18. Lefty e

    I second that!!!! It’s crazy and feels like those adds have been on forever. I’ve seen heaps and I hadfly watch commercial tv, so must b on ALL the time. Can’t wait for them to loose (hopefully). Was working in the public service when there was the last change of government and minister and their staff were very confidently talking about the stuff they were going to do in their second term. Even then I thought that was a bit presumptious!!! Most public servant I know (who remain as lots left) r waiting around for a change, hoping the other side will b more productive & proactive as opposed to sitting around doing nothing for 3 years. As in ps has been working but not much has been achieved in most portfolios bc of lack of decision making from ministers.

  20. BW

    [ Given that no-one much liked my plan I would be scarpering o/s on the first plane out on a First Class seat. ]

    Good thinking that – leaving by aircraft – I doubt ‘boat people’ fleeing Australia would welcome in many places.

  21. [lefty e
    Posted Friday, October 24, 2014 at 2:56 pm | Permalink
    On VIC: I reckon the LNP have jumped the shark with their outrageous, criminal assault on treasury to fund LNP political advertising, for what feels like the last 2 years.

    Honesty, its like state-owned TV down here.]

    Pretty bad up here in Qld too, and we haven’t even got an election on yet. Apparently we have to make strong smart choices to lease all our assets just to pay for all the strong smart choices advertising. Tim Nicholls makes Joe Hockey look good.

  22. zoomster

    [Yes, let’s celebrate the life of someone who loved language with a whole heap of tired cliches —

    I’ll add

    “They broke the mould when they made him”]

    You have absolutely no class at all – get over yourself!

  23. I maybe showing my naïveté here but surely most of the population has some level of critical reading of government advertising even if fewer people work at exercising it very frequently. Reminding people about public transport, or East West can’t be all good for the government, surely?

  24. I’m very happy today. I have had some beautiful ideas in recent weeks for new enterprises – gorgeous ideas, ideas to introduce to family and friends, ideas to take to town. Ideas that can make life for my co-inhabitants on Earth much, much better. I am, as can be seen, levitating with excitement.

  25. Nicholas while it seems wrong it is in fact Kosher under existing tax laws both here and internationally. It is not transfer pricing as defined by the taxation act just Apple Ireland receiving value for their IP rights.

    It’s a problem that has to be addressed at an international level.

    On a more non-specific basis companies virtually never pay exactly 30% of their accounting profit in tax due to a range of both permanent and timing differences. The most common is the different depreciation rates used to calculate accounting and taxable profit. That article made no attempt to try and properly analyse what the differences were due to and whether they are fair and reasonable under each circumstance.

    Thank you for this. I know that the arrangement is legal under current Australian law. I would like the Australian Government to lawyer up with the best corporate talent in the country and figure out how to make it illegal to use fictional transactions to move Australian-derived profits offshore.

    An international agreement is the long term goal, I agree. But what is the incentive for the tax havens to agree to lift their tax rates? They have chosen an economic model built partly on the facilitation of tax avoidance. That’s the “service” they choose to offer transnational firms and high net wealth individuals.

    I think the other nations of the world need to focus the minds of Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Bermuda, and the state of Delaware in the US. How about this. The Australian Government designates certain jurisdictions as tax havens. The Government compiles a detailed dossier on each and publishes it. It would be a rigorous evidence-based decision. Then the Government legislates that every transnational company with a unit in one of those jurisdictions must pay an upfront levy in order to do business in Australia. How to calculate the levy would be determined by the ATO – perhaps a flat percentage of the firm’s total global revenues. The purpose would be to reduce or wipe out entirely the financial advantage of having a corporate entity in one of those tax havens.

    If we could get other nations to go along with this, the pressure on the tax haven governments would be immense, and then those governments may decide that it’s smarter to incentivize real economic value adding rather than having an economy built partly on tax avoidance.

  26. Briefly

    [I’m very happy today. I have had some beautiful ideas in recent weeks for new enterprises – gorgeous ideas, ideas to introduce to family and friends, ideas to take to town. Ideas that can make life for my co-inhabitants on Earth much, much better. I am, as can be seen, levitating with excitement.]

    Are you part of Skunkworks? Making small fusion reactors?

  27. [Gough will be remembered as the man who dragged Australia into the modern era, and changed the place for the better, long after the aforementioned pygmies, as well as their idiot heroes and masters, Abbott and Murdoch, have faded into complete obscurity.]

    he may not have been the sole reason, but whitlam is the main reason that:
    – me, most of my siblings, my wife and most of my friends got to go to university – now all comfortable professionals, paying good taxes and able to contribute significant volunteer hours to the community. we are all looking at our kids and thinking “they don’t have the opportunities we had” and that hurts. Labor should run a campaign on LNP stealing our children’s future. It is causing serious stress in my social group – many now thinking they need to send kids to very expensive elite schools so their kids get the same opportunities that we got via Gough going to non-elite and ordinary schools.
    – at 48, I am the first generation to get through school without being indoctrinated at some level about being a ‘Briton’ down under, with the overt or covert message that to be Briton was to be on the top of the evolutionary pile. Even my siblings a decade or so older than me got this stuff in primary school (I think I only had one old teacher who thought knowing the names of the english kings and queens was vital). Abbott is a Briton. Pyne is a Briton. they want that back in schools.

  28. Today, is the 32nd anniversary of the day I met hubby.

    From the first day we met, I was certain that he was the one with whom I would share my life. I’ve never had cause to doubt that judgement since.

    He is my lover, my peer, my partner in life and parenting, my comfort, my mentor and the wisest person I know. I am a much better person than I was in October 1982, and he more than any other thing is the inspiration for my growth. We are not married, but until death do us part.

    There will be a celebration this evening and a few tears. I will remind him, though he needs none, that finding him has proved more valuable to me than any personal fortune that might have fallen into my hands in a fantasy. With him, no adversity is too great to bear, and without him, no personal advantage more than banal consolation.

    🙂

  30. And on a more genuinely banal note, that joke that keeps on giving, Jackie Lambie, has asserted that if ebola were to come to Australia, it would be claustrophobic.

    Another Dorrie Evans award for her then.

  31. Nicholas I agree with your goals on increased international agreement – but it is already illegal – very very illegal – to move Australian profit offshore with fictions transactional. Go directly to jail illegal.

  33. Congratulations fran

    Interestingly, in a couple of months it will be 31 years me and my OH met and have been together ever since.

  35. briefly
    Posted Friday, October 24, 2014 at 4:09 pm | PERMALINK
    [I’m very happy today. I have had some beautiful ideas in recent weeks for new enterprises – gorgeous ideas, ideas to introduce to family and friends, ideas to take to town. Ideas that can make life for my co-inhabitants on Earth much, much better. I am, as can be seen, levitating with excitement.]

    Sounds very interesting! 🙂

  36. [I’m very happy today. I have had some beautiful ideas in recent weeks for new enterprises – gorgeous ideas, ideas to introduce to family and friends, ideas to take to town. Ideas that can make life for my co-inhabitants on Earth much, much better. I am, as can be seen, levitating with excitement.]

    briefly:

    I had something similar occur a few months back – so I shared my vision with an old school mate, and we’re now developing it with an aim to have a working product within 18 months. It’s just exhilarating 😉

    I live for moments like these… lap it up!!

  37. Fran perhaps the good senator mean that if Ebola come to Australia we will all hide away in our houses until it runs its course.

  42. Victoria

    [Interestingly, in a couple of months it will be 31 years me and my OH met and have been together ever since.]

    Thanks and congratulations to you too/two. 🙂

    It is the most.wonderful thing to find beauty and warmth in someone who finds it in you.

  44. Fran

    I cannot articulate sentiments in the way that you do. Save to say, we met in our late teens and we get along as well as ever. Go figure!

  49. Re: economic ‘MAD’ keeping us ‘safe’

    I’d be very cautious about this idea. It is probably true up to a point, but there is a very important difference between cold-war-MAD and economic-MAD.

    Economies fall over for a whole variety of reasons all the time.

    Once a serious economic calamity hits a country, ‘economic-MAD’ is no longer protective.

    A simple example that concerns me greatly – if China were to fall off the economic tightrope they are walking currently and there was a significant economic downturn and/or severe food shortages etc, it seems highly likely that the Chinese leadership would turn to aggressive militaristic nationalism to head off the possibility of an internal revolt.

    While the sun shines economically on China the chances of it starting a major conflict are low because of the issues with their dependence on international trade. When things turn to shit … not so much.

    I wouldn’t be putting too much reliance on economic-MAD for our security.

  50. BW

    [ I don’t understand screeds of comments about the Greens defence policy when the chance it would ever happen is about 0% and if it did, they’d change it all anyway.

    Does this logic apply to the experience of Rudd, Gillard, Rudd governments?]

    My point is that the Greens have 0% chance of forming government and even by some freak if they did, there is 0% chance of invasion.

    It’s a Seinfeld argument; a show about nothing.

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