A tale of four pollsters:
Newspoll
GhostWhoVotes relates the first Newspoll in four weeks has delivered Labor its best poll result in some time, with a two-party lead of 53-47 that compares with 51-49 last time. The Coalition is off three points on the primary vote to 38%, but the direct beneficiaries are the Greens, up three to 14%, with Labor steady on 34%. Tony Abbott is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 53%, but Bill Shorten’s numbers have also declined – his approval is down three to 35%, and disapproval up three to a new high of 46%. On preferred prime minister, Shorten closes the gap from 41-37 to 39-38.
The poll also has 63% saying Tony Abbott should “confront” (not “shirt-front”) Vladimir Putin over MH17, against 27% who don’t.
Morgan
This fortnight’s result from Morgan, encompassing 3131 respondents from its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, is little changed on last fortnight, which was the Coalition’s best result from this series since February. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down half a point to 39.5%, Labor is up half a point to 35.5%, and the Greens and Palmer United are unchanged on 12% and 3.5% respectively. On two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the 2013 election, the Labor lead increases just slightly from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences it goes the other way, down from 53-47 to 52-48, minor party preferences evidently having been a little more favourable to the Coalition this time out. Keen poll watchers will be aware that Morgan has lately taken to including two-party preferred breakdowns by age. These results appear to indicate that Morgan’s noted Labor skew is being driven by the younger respondents. I mean to get around to taking a closer look at that some time.
Fairfax Ipsos
The big news in polldom this week is that Fairfax has announced Ipsos, a major international market research concern whose local operation Iview has done some scattered online polling around the place this year, will fill the void created by Nielsen’s shutdown earlier in the year. Best of all, it will replicate Nielsen’s methods in conducting live interview phone polling from 1400 respondents each month. State polling will also be conducted, starting with a Victorian poll which we can expect very shortly.
Essential Research
It will, as always, publish its weekly result at around 2pm EST. Watch this space.
UPDATE: Essential concurs with Newspoll in having Labor’s lead at 53-47, which is up from 52-47 last time, although the primary vote numbers suggests there’s not much in the shift: the Coalition is down a point to 40% and everyone else is steady, Labor on 39%, the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 3%. Some indication as to why the Coalition is in this position is provided by a further question on perceptions of economic indicators, with very large majorities finding everything has gotten worse except for “company profits”. Forty-four per cent think their own financial situation is worse versus 16% for better, and the economy overall fares similarly. Other findings are that 66% favour voluntary euthanasia with 14% opposed, and 58% believing Australia is doing enough to fight Ebola versus 21% for not enough.
I issued Gough his ALP ticket one year.
Vale Gough Whitlam, a great reforming Labor leader. He led a good life, and achieved much. I never met him, but his changes to education gave me my career, and his vision inspired me more than any leader since has.
Most of the current Federal cabinet is in the same basket, the ungrateful sods. Whitlam will be remembered fondly long after the current crew have faded into obscurity.
@DavidBerthold: Gough Whitlam, appropriately, was Australia’s 21st Prime Minister: he was our coming of age. #GoughWhitlam
http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/breaking-news/hockey-seeks-coal-tariff-reversal/story-fnn9c0ha-1227096810283
I’m beginning to see the logic behind China’s logic.
With their way of market regulation, stable coal prices and measures to keep pollution down, Australia’s fall in currency and tax and regulation around coal will only cause a disturbance. An import tariff will stabilise that price to stop Chinese corporations from gouging on cheap coal.
I doubt Hockey will get much from this without heavy concessions.
Assange is on twitter telling the world of the CIA role in the dismissal.
This will come as a shock to many outside of Australia.
Just heard the end of greg Sheridan speaking with faine. Appears that he was slagging the Whitlam legacy. Should i be bloody surprised?
Who can even forget the 1974 election?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_1974
Australian Labor got 49.30% on primaries!
F*** you Greens for taking our votes today!
[Assange is on twitter telling the world of the CIA role in the dismissal.
This will come as a shock to many outside of Australia.]
Assange really is a comedic figure these days.
Certifiable.
Those who blamed Whitlam for economic turmoil at the time were most unfair. The world went through a severe recession in 1974 after the Arab oil crisis, and what Australia suffered was no worse than other western countries. Whitlam was not a great administrator, but he was nowhere near as bad as opponents claim. Fraser caused a worse recession in the early 80s, that was much more his own doing.
Like Chifley and Curtain, Gough Whitlam’s achievements will stand the test of time well. Not least his opening trade ties with China, a legacy the current government seem bent on destroying. Also, like Keating, Whitlam was a talented speaker, who could amuse and entertain as well as persuade.
Interesting too that Whitlam was 56 when he took office, older than anyone else since. Yet he looked and acted younger, and got more done. Back to work for me, though it will be a lesser day.
victoria:
Absolutely not!
If Assange had been around in the 70s in his current guise, he would have been saying Whitlam was too right wing and that he was a war monger or some such nonsense.
His rantings should be ignored.
[F*** you Greens for taking our votes today!]
The votes belong to the people, who decide whom they give them too. It is up to Labor to earn them. Put up more leaders like Whitlam, and fewer union hacks, and we will get a better primary %.
[Those who blamed Whitlam for economic turmoil at the time were most unfair. The world went through a severe recession in 1974 after the Arab oil crisis, ]
Yes, of course. But like the GFC, the Australian media (led by Murdoch) are incapable or relating global events to local issues in relative terms.
24 about to cross to Mr Shorten speaking to Labor Caucus
@latikambourke: The @AustralianLabor party has opened a condolence book online for the late Former PM Gough Whitlam: http://t.co/XAgGFdqOpl
Shorten now speaking
Vale Gough, my hero.
Saddened by the loss of another great Australian.
Darren
Are you unable to see that the ALP led by Gough Whitlam was closer to today’s Greens than is current Labor and indeed probably the government of Malcolm Fraser would be closer to the greens than today.
Let us start with Foreign Affairs: Whitlam was towards the right of the ALP but still withdrew from Vietnam. I very much doubt that our current ALP would do so. Whitlam was for an independent Australia not beholden to the USA. The last Labo4r government allowed the US to build a base in Darwin. So on these two Foreign Affair issues Whitlam’s labor would stand say 1.5 to greens and 0.5 to Labor
Let us take the security legislation. There is no way the ALP of Murphy would have touched it with a barge poll. This huge issue is again greens position.
I will allow that on Medicare, NDIS Labor today stands with Whitlam’s labor. The greens argue for Medicare dental health which is very Whitlamite.
On social policy it is hard to compare because so much has changed. I suspect that on the big social issues of the day Abortion, Women’s rights Whitlam’s Labor was pretty much where it is today.
However Murphy’s divorce laws and so many other things were very radical and I suspect more like the Greens today than the ALP.
Darren
I will concede that many, many lefties dumped on Gough as being too Right Wing. It was especially the case over East Timor, when the Labor Young Left (pretty much today’s Greens) heckled him furiously. OK I was one of them. First date with my ex was to heckle Gough. Seems a very long time ago.
Spray @126
[Vale Gough. Changed the destiny of my family for generations. And many more like us.
No other politician comes close.]
You nailed it for mine!
I met Gough a couple of times and have a signed coaster with a comment from him at a function he attended at the Revesby Workers Club to raise money for the seat of Banks.
My grandfather was the member for Kingsford Smith from 1949-1969 and Whitlam attended a fund raiser for him in Maroubra Junction.
Interesting that Whitlam introduced Medicare and now it is being privatised by the Abbott Government,
From what Faulkner’s saying it sounds as if Gough remained pretty active right up until just before he died. Extraordinary given his age!
confessions
Where is John talking from is it the Senate?
dtt
[The greens argue for Medicare dental health which is very Whitlamite.]
And very much Laborite, too, given that Labor went to the 2007 election with an equivalent policy (blocked by the Greens in the Senate, btw).
No, the partyroom. He’s just finished.
Thanks!
mtbw
ABC24 have televised the party room paying tribute to Gough
Gough also created the supporting parent’s allowance, meaning that single women were no longer forced to relinquish their babies for adoption. imho, this was one of the greatest of his many reforms, removing fear, regret and shame from the lives of many thousands of young women and their families. He was a lion of imperishable memory.
Thanks Vic is it still running? I will go and turn the tele on!
briefly
He also got the sewer on for many of Sydney’s outer suburbs.
Didn’t he also so implement “no fault” divorce?
briefly:
And no-fault divorce too I believe.
mtbw
No they just finished up after one minutes silence
No fault divorce set me free. Thank you, Gough.
Vale Gough, my hero.
About a year ago I emailed him via his Institute with my sincere thanks for all his that reforms did for me, especially for my university degree. They sent me a reply saying Gough appreciated my email.
Gough Whitlam, the greatest Australian, passed away at 98. I am a Whitlam Woman, one of the hundreds of thousands who went to university as mature students when he made uni free (for your first undergraduate degree). It changed my life and the life of my children, Goodbye Gough, and thank you.
Abbott has declared from wherever he is that all Australian flags be lowered to half mast.
Puff
A lovely post!
For those wondering what will happen in Parliament today
[
Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 7m 7 minutes ago
As tweeted earlier. House will sit at 12. PM Abbott will move a condolence motion. 8 speakers from each side + crossbenchers then HOR rises.
]
https://twitter.com/latikambourke
Mtbw
So for Abbott and Co are being very respectful.
Puffy
Wonderful sentiments. 🙂
Sir Mad Cyril
Thanks for letting us know!
for – far
Yes the coalition are being very respectful which is surprising. Brandis earlier sounded almost reverential when speaking of Gough’s legacy.
Such a difference from only 18mths ago.
This is, of course, not the reasl God 😉
[ “@TheTweetOfGod
Gough Whitlam is up here and already has presented Me with a number of suggestions for reform.”]
Vic 189
They would have no option I would have thought.
Interesting stat
[@TheKouk: Did you know that in the last 40 years, only the Gillard/Rudd and Whitlam Govts have never had an unemployment rate above 6%?]
Whitlam ended the death penalty! His govt really did herald the maturing of our nation.
confessions
Didn’t he also do something about unmarried mothers?
Dammit, I can’t stop crying. Why are we now governed by pygmies with no vision…
NSW is undergoing a federal re-distribution, with the net loss of one electorate. In the final wash-up, what are the chances that a NSW electorate will be re-named “Whitlam”? My money’s on Werriwa.