BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor

With the only new poll being a status quo result from Essential Research, it’s a dull old week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new poll this week was the regular weekly finding from Essential Research, which produced an essentially status quo result. With earlier polling that was stronger for Labor washing out of the system, the latest reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a minor continuation of the trend to the Coalition, who are up 0.2% on two-party preferred. There is also a one-seat shift on the seat projection to the Coalition, who make a gain in New South Wales. For what it’s worth, this leaves the numbers looking very much as they did at the 2010 election. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor”

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  2. Good to see the Tigers punted! Tyey wouldn’t have been in the finals without Vickery’s cowardly king hit to Cox in Perth.

  3. dave

    But Malaya retained the ‘sia’ which reflected a combined Malaya-Singapore.

    The malayas thought they would end up dominated by the singapore and their own chinese.

    It took me a while to figure out what you meant by “sia” but then it clicked. Yeah, Malaya became Malaysia on the incorporation of Singapore and the Bornean states of Sarawak and Sabah. There is no going back, after all Sabah and Sarawak chose to stay on despite many tensions that still remain to this day on the distribution of wealth and natural resources.

    We can’t possibly know if Malaysia will be dominated by the Chinese, but one thing’s for sure. Despite their financial strength, the Chinese in Malaysia still remain dominated to a certain extent, due to affirmative action set in the constitution to favour the Malays (as “Bumiputra”) over the other races, with the exception of other native races also lumped under the “Bumiputra” category.

  4. GG

    Raaraa,

    You said you didn’t believe my assertion that it is cheaper to rent than buy in some areas the other evening.

    The maths is pretty simple. A 30 year loan of $300k at 4.74% fixed for 2 years yields a repayment of $1563.14 per month or $360 per week.

    There are plenty of people paying more than $360 per week rent.

    So, you can squeel bullshit as much as you like. The facts don’t back you up though. Not that facts are likely to enter any part of your considerations or opinion splurting.

    I do realised I have erred and I humbly apologise. I have misread your position and read that you said that it is cheaper to buy

  6. GG

    Raaraa,

    You said you didn’t believe my assertion that it is cheaper to rent than buy in some areas the other evening.

    The maths is pretty simple. A 30 year loan of $300k at 4.74% fixed for 2 years yields a repayment of $1563.14 per month or $360 per week.

    There are plenty of people paying more than $360 per week rent.

    So, you can squeel bullshit as much as you like. The facts don’t back you up though. Not that facts are likely to enter any part of your considerations or opinion splurting.

    I do realised I have erred and I humbly apologise. I have misread your position and read that you said that it is cheaper to buy than it is to rent, when in fact our positions are in agreeable.

    It is indeed cheaper to rent than to buy in many places, and I know of a number of places where rent is $350 and lower and within 20 mins drive from the city centre.

    Just 3 years ago, I rented in Altona North a 3 bedroom house for $300/week. This would probably have inflated to $350 by now.

    An equivalent 300k home would be some 45 mins away from the city minimum, and then you have to consider the cost of upkeeping the home, something which is included in the rent. I realised that only after having owned a home.

    Please disregard my partial post in error.

  7. Scottish independence and consequent changes to “The Butchers’ Apron” will have no effect on the Australian flag debate.
    A lasting legacy of Howard is that the flag can not be changed without a plebiscite and the chances of that happening is close to zero.

  13. The last I saw was about 30% and if it is like the republic it will be falling. There may be an improvement if a viable alternative comes forward but the suggestions I have seen look like 1970s advertising bunting

  15. Raaraa

    [ We can’t possibly know if Malaysia will be dominated by the Chinese, but one thing’s for sure. Despite their financial strength, the Chinese in Malaysia still remain dominated to a certain extent, due to affirmative action set in the constitution to favour the Malays (as “Bumiputra”) over the other races, with the exception of other native races also lumped under the “Bumiputra” category. ]

    Yes – thats right.

    Singapore was chucked out of the newly formed Malaysia because the malay’s thought they would end up being dominated by the Singaporean Chinese particularly.

    Lee Kuan Yew has described that as probably his and Singapore’s greatest setback at the time anyway. This is covered “The Singapore Story: Memoirs of Lee Kuan Yew”.

    Maybe the Malay’s made an astute assessment of Harry Lee. He and Singers landed on their feet anyway.

  17. [1663
    Oakeshott Country
    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2014 at 7:19 pm | PERMALINK
    The last I saw was about 30% and if it is like the republic it will be falling. There may be an improvement if a viable alternative comes forward but the suggestions I have seen look like 1970s advertising bunting
    ]

    I must, as a card carrying Republican, I am saddened by the campaigns’ descent into the doldrums. There is a lost demographic developing, with the Murdoch flag-wrapping and forelock tugging Abbott and crew proceeding unchallenged.

    I would throw the dice if I was an ALP leader.

  18. guytaur:

    It’s now official. There isn’t one issue at which today’s LIberal party won’t throw public funds at if they reckon there’s an ideological brownie point or vote to be won out of it.

  21. Re the flag: if there is ever to be a new Australian flag, it will probably just seem to pop out of nowhere and grab the imagination, rather like the Aboriginal flag did in the 70s. Hopefully not out of a future war or other existential crisis.

    I don’t think the flag has priority and anyway we need a lot more than 50%+1 to change it. For what it’s worth, I like this minimalist version: https://www.flickr.com/photos/stevevii77/11831290535/

  24. Slipper from 2013….

    Wonder if he will get right of reply tonight? Doubt it.

    [@PNSlipper: LNP and Abbott should strip Brough of endorsement given his lies over involvement in ashbygate & attempts 2 get Clive 2 fund failed case.]

  27. Re Muttleymcgee @1672: I made up a Green and Gold version but it didn’t really work (in my opinion). Gold stars on blue look good, however.

  28. [In South East Asia there used to be a brand of toothpaste called ‘Darkie’with the symbol of a black man with bright white teeth. Now it is called ‘Darlie’ and has a white man on the label.]

    I indeed remember this growing up there. I still use them occasionally as this brand is second only to Colgate. The political incorrectness was missed as American history wasn’t taught,as least in the parts where I lived, and I remember the change to “Darlie” sometime in the late 80s or early 90s and I think many still don’t know why.

    As WB highlighted, no the new logo was not just a reverse of a white man with black teeth (LOL), but actually a silhouette of a man with mainly white skin tone but with a black outline around the edges of the face, maintaining white teeth (which is only natural if you want to keep selling an effective toothpaste). If you ask me, the man still have a facial structure and dressed like an African-American entertainer from the early 20th century.

    blackburnpseph, GG,

    Thank you, UAE and PNG did effectively have independence forced on them.

    Steve777

    Most Australians have tradionally regarded rent payments as ‘dead money’, but in that case, bank interest is equally ‘dead’ (being ‘rent’ paid for use of a sum of money). But our tax system greatly favours home ownership, while anyone who eventually finds themselves dependent upon a pension and doesn’t own their home is in a pretty parlous situation.

    In the past, home ownership made even more sense. Until the 80′s, young people could stretch themselves to the limit to get a foot on the mortgage treadmill. So long as they could hang on a few years, inflation and wage increases would diminish the debt and repayments to a manageable level and eventually render them quite small, while rents inexorably rose with or faster than inflation. This was true even as interest rates rose until they got very high towards the end of the 80s. Meanwhile, they had equity in an assest that was soon worth double and eventually larger multiples of its purchase price.

    That was unsustainable of course and those days have gone forever.

    I completely agree with your points on rent and interest payments to the bank both being “dead money”. I think in the past more than now, if you had to choose between paying the two “dead money”, bank interest would be the lesser, and a married couple buying their new home would easily pay it off in less than 10 years. Not so much the case now.

    I don’t believe there is a right or wrong way, but rather a choice that you make based on your future circumstance.

    Among the many forums I participate in, one of them is somersoft, which is mainly focused around real estate investments. The buy vs rent debate is one that happens frequently. I believe the consensus is to continue renting, but buy the most effective investment properties to rent out in the most highest growth areas.

  29. GG

    [Seeing as I haven’t peeved the athiests lately….]

    Thia atheist (and fan of Dawkins’ books) was more amused that peeved…it was quite clever.

  33. Pyne famously “had drinks” with Ashby one late evening re: Ashby.

    This made no sense other than as some sort of “honey trap” or other way for the LNP to “manage”
    Ashby’s allegations.

    Pyne still has not explained what happened that night and “I have five children” is not a relevant response.

  35. @sprocket_/1684

    There are more polls coming this week/next week.

    “But just wait for the next week, when Smithson expects to see a plethora of surveys from five or six firms”

  37. Even if the Scottish referendum gets up, don’t be surprised if issues around membership of EU, currency and whether it has its own defence force and foreign policy may well derail it being fully implemented.

    They may end up with just an increased degree of autonomy which will be branded as “independence” to save face.

  45. Re Sprocket_ @1684: that’s an extraordinary chart, especially given that Big Money and most powerful interests are backing the ‘No’ case. The ‘No’ campaign must be even more inept than Labor’s Federal campaign in 2010.

  50. “@davrosz: So he’s rehashing exactly what was in the original affidavit. Tim Knapp denies Ashby’s version of events – we spoke to him. #60mins”

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