BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor

With the only new poll being a status quo result from Essential Research, it’s a dull old week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new poll this week was the regular weekly finding from Essential Research, which produced an essentially status quo result. With earlier polling that was stronger for Labor washing out of the system, the latest reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a minor continuation of the trend to the Coalition, who are up 0.2% on two-party preferred. There is also a one-seat shift on the seat projection to the Coalition, who make a gain in New South Wales. For what it’s worth, this leaves the numbers looking very much as they did at the 2010 election. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor”

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  2. zoidlord@1599

    @GG/1598

    The only one that is whinging is you currently, whinging about someone at the so called bottom of the dunghill.

    You are quiet pathetic, arguing with a Disabled person GG.

    Are you disabled? If so, what is the significance of that? Does it mean that your posts must not be disagreed with?

    Dream on, sunshine.

  4. @don/1602

    Being disabled has more limitations than other people, being disabled means your stuck on fixed income.

    Don’t give me that ‘dream on’ me ‘sunshine’ attitude, because that won’t work.

  5. zoid,

    The fact that you may be disabled is unknown to me. Playing the sympathy card is probably something you’ve done all your life. Only, it doesn’t cut it here on PB.

    On PB, you survive and thrive on knowledgeable contribution and the quality of your arguments. It’s very apparent that you have neither.

  7. [There was of course a brand of candy/sweets in Oz that went under the name N****** Boy ( eg Licorice )- that changed their name to Lucky Boy]

    In South East Asia there used to be a brand of toothpaste called ‘Darkie’with the symbol of a black man with bright white teeth. Now it is called ‘Darlie’ and has a white man on the label.

  8. GG

    They played that way for the first half of the year than then stopped dead. They have recaptured it. Confidence is a wonderful thing. They are so fast when they play on and run in packs they just tear you apart.

  9. [Did you know that Singapore is probably the only country to have been forced its independence on them?]

    What is now the UAE were also reluctant to lose their British protectorate status. The British basically told them that they were withdrawing their forces and the UAE had to become independent in 1971.

  10. “Did you know that Singapore is probably the only country to have been forced its independence on them?”

    I’m pretty sure that their is a famous conversation between Gough and Somare when Somare claimed that PNG was not ready for Independence. Gough said something to the effect that “Mother decides when the baby comes off the tit!”

  11. Most Australians have tradionally regarded rent payments as ‘dead money’, but in that case, bank interest is equally ‘dead’ (being ‘rent’ paid for use of a sum of money). But our tax system greatly favours home ownership, while anyone who eventually finds themselves dependent upon a pension and doesn’t own their home is in a pretty parlous situation.

    In the past, home ownership made even more sense. Until the 80’s, young people could stretch themselves to the limit to get a foot on the mortgage treadmill. So long as they could hang on a few years, inflation and wage increases would diminish the debt and repayments to a manageable level and eventually render them quite small, while rents inexorably rose with or faster than inflation. This was true even as interest rates rose until they got very high towards the end of the 80s. Meanwhile, they had equity in an assest that was soon worth double and eventually larger multiples of its purchase price.

    That was unsustainable of course and those days have gone forever.

  12. @GG/1605

    You say that I have none of what you said, which is incorrect, as I have noted in the past, and argued on this blog for quiet some time, in my experience, as well as others.

    If you haven’t done so, then that is why you are ignorant of my posts, and my apparent lack of contribution of ‘knowledge’.

    Now you are just arguing and attacking me for the sake of it, because I don’t agree with you.

    You have gone far enough GG, way past personal attacks on ME.

    Your attacks on Disabled, also means you have no experience with the disabled, on trying to get a better life, so you use the typical attack like of the symphony card to try and get away with your argument or lack of.

  14. [But our tax system greatly favours home ownership]

    Only really in the Capital Gains Tax sense. Our tax system is truly beneficent when it comes to buying your second, third or more property. There are still benefits in home ownership – the problem is that it is getting harder to get onto the treadmill – but it wasn’t easy when I bought my first flat in the 1990’s or when my parents bought their first house in the early 60’s either.

  16. zoid,

    You know nothing about me or my personal circumstances. So all your bold assertions and personal criticisms are based on a total lack of knowledge of me or my life.

    That you are disabled is not of my making. Nor is it of particular interest to me in this forum.

    PB is not a sheltered workshop and if you want to play here, looking for special consideration when your posts are crap is not going to get you anywhere.

  18. @GG/1616

    You made the claim, you didn’t back it up.

    Now it’s about what I said, not what the argument is about.

    You dug your own grave, now get back in it.

    I didn’t comment on your personal life (there is a difference to what I said and what you read), you commented on my personal life, and used a scapegoat attack to attack disabled (showed real colors there!).

  19. 1611

    Low inflation is a policy decision. Higher employment rates could be prioritised and a higher (I am not talking hyper inflation here, single digits only and probably not high single digits either). That would bring back that situation of inflation helping home buyers.

  21. @3canary

    Ch 9 were offered the Ashbygate file of @independentaus @BowlerBarrister @TheMurdochTimes @60Mins @randlight But refused them.

    Not sure how true this is but certainly makes me very suspicious

  23. @Confessions/1620

    PvO doesn’t understand that Liberals been doing this for at least 6 years under the current mob.

    I’m pretty sure that under Howard came up with better stuff.

  24. @BowlerBarrister

    It focuses attention on what has not been done by the media to investigate & report on #AshbyGate @randlight @TheMurdochTimes @60Mins

    This guy is often on the mark, I wonder if tonight will uncover or hide?

  28. A few things being retweeted today

    “@PNSlipper: I have been a good friend of Tony Abbott even when he didn’t have many. I even delivered him the key vote he needed to become leader!”

    “@PNSlipper: #auspol Tony was an honoured guest at our wedding 6 years ago and it was great to have him and other friends and family there.”

  29. [In South East Asia there used to be a brand of toothpaste called ‘Darkie’with the symbol of a black man with bright white teeth. Now it is called ‘Darlie’ and has a white man on the label.]

    With black teeth?

  30. guytaur:

    Surely someone as good a friend of Abbott’s as Slipper claimed to be would’ve been well aware of Tony’s tendency to throw people under a bus when it suited him, even if they regarded themselves to be good friends of his.

  32. confessions

    A more serious reply you deserve. I would have thought so myself. Its amazing though the personal blinders people can put on.

  33. Well played Port. I am not really a supporter but I think it is good for Adelaide (the place) if at least one of our teams stays in.

  34. Steve 1611

    Well said, and a good summary of why our housing market is so screwed up. Even with negative gearing, in the long term it must crash/correct. The prices are bided up now by boomers saving for retirement. Once they start retiring and selling, or simply no longer buying, the price level relative to young adult’s wages is impossible to sustain. Evening all.

  36. Our housing market has always looked like a Ponzi scheme. It came undone in the early 90s recession but recovered after a lot of people were badly burnt. Since then it has hiccupped a couple of times but for a while now it’s been ever onwards and upwards. But median house prices of 10 times the average annual wage/ salary (as is the case in Sydney) can’t possibly last.

  39. [Big win for Port Power. Ready to take on Freemantle and then Hawkes if they can run around Freemantle defence.]

    You could just stroll over the Freo defence whistling at the moment. If Freo are too win and avoid going out in straight sets their mid field and forwards need to take different drugs to what they took yesterday, they were hopeless their own worst enemies.

  41. I am not impressed with the behaviour of the Port Power fans at the Adelaide Oval. Jeering whenever the other side gets a goal or a free kick is feral.

  42. ESJ,

    Non standard forms are drawing a draft are not my style.

    I’m more piss taker than you who pride themselves on being the goblet of bubble?

  44. The umpires seemed to think their task was to even things up – I think 12:3 frees to Richmond in first q – not sure after that but a few doubtful decisions.

  45. Puff – most of the jeering is just the fans needing something to do. Its pretty light heated. Most club fans do the same thing.

  49. Yes now leading narrowly in some Scottish referendum polls.

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/06/latest-scottish-referendum-poll-yes-lead/

    Yes will need a good lead to cover last minute retreats to status quo: though there is just a possibility that a major turnout,

    anti-politics style, may be enough to cover that as well. One thing is clear already: No has run a truly awful campaign – how good can the union be if they’re this short on winning arguments?

    Me, 100% fingers crossed for Scottish indpendence: cos then we can revisit the flag debate here. Our flag is appalling, and I’m really hoping that soon it depicts a non-existent historical state in the upper left quarter to further drive the anachronism into the realms of near cosmic absurdity.

    What is this, a museum curio or a flag?

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