BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor

With the only new poll being a status quo result from Essential Research, it’s a dull old week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new poll this week was the regular weekly finding from Essential Research, which produced an essentially status quo result. With earlier polling that was stronger for Labor washing out of the system, the latest reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a minor continuation of the trend to the Coalition, who are up 0.2% on two-party preferred. There is also a one-seat shift on the seat projection to the Coalition, who make a gain in New South Wales. For what it’s worth, this leaves the numbers looking very much as they did at the 2010 election. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor”

  1. [We’ve seen it so many times now – the difficult, emotional interview or press conference that causes Troy Buswell to shed a tear.

    Each one has followed a public indiscretion. On Wednesday afternoon, in the boardroom at Newspaper House, Mr Buswell would face the camera and the microphone for the last time.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/24919752/troy-finds-local-deeds-overshadow-big-stage/

    We can only hope it’s for the last time.

  2. So Abbott is fire walled.

    “There is no greater love than laying one’s political reputation down for another. You do know that I will always appreciate your sacrifice, Chris?”

    “Don’t be so dramatic Tony! Those fools er voters in my electorate would still vote for me even if I was found on the Speakers Chair with a shaved goat, a pound of mango butter and me jocks down around me sox. Got any more wine?”

  3. I beg to differ: this is pretty big. If the harrassment occurred it sounds a lot like corruption of witnesses or conspraicy to defeat justice. If it didnt its suborning perjury.

    [Federal Education Minister Christopher Pyne allegedly offered to help find former speaker’s aide James Ashby a lawyer and a job if he made a claim of sexual harassment against speaker of the House of Representatives Peter Slipper.

    Mr Pyne also allegedly threatened to call Mr Ashby a “pathological liar” if he told the media about their discussion and Mr Pyne’s offer of assistance.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pyne-allegedly-offered-to-help-find-ashby-a-lawyer-and-a-job-20140907-10dor0.html#ixzz3CdLf2K17

  4. Sorry to disappoint the collective genius of The Poll Bludger, but Ashby’s interview is bad news for the government. Sure, it’s not a silver bullet. It’s manageable. But it’s bad news nonetheless. It weighs nicely against Abbott’s current Commander in Chief strategy. There’s some synergy with the Kathy Jackson matter. It was broadcast to an audience that the ALP struggles to access. There were fresh assertions which are damaging to the government.

    Skilled politicians complement a slow and steady policy narrative with the merciless exploitation of these little opportunities.

  5. [Scottish independence and consequent changes to “The Butchers’ Apron” will have no effect on the Australian flag debate.
    A lasting legacy of Howard is that the flag can not be changed without a plebiscite and the chances of that happening is close to zero.]

    I disagree. If Scotland leaves the Union, we’ll have a flag plebsicite inside 10 years.

    And thats even if the Brits keep the Jack. If they change it its game over.

    Its one thing to have another nation’s flag on your own. Once that nation no longer exists as previously constituted, the clock is ticking.

    Especially when NZ dumps theirs (and they will).

  6. Jake@1808

    Sorry to disappoint the collective genius of The Poll Bludger, but Ashby’s interview is bad news for the government. Sure, it’s not a silver bullet. It’s manageable. But it’s bad news nonetheless. It weighs nicely against Abbott’s current Commander in Chief strategy. There’s some synergy with the Kathy Jackson matter. It was broadcast to an audience that the ALP struggles to access. There were fresh assertions which are damaging to the government.

    Skilled politicians complement a slow and steady policy narrative with the merciless exploitation of these little opportunities.

    Well said.

    It was comical how the analysis and denunciation of it started on PB before it had even been seen.

  7. Raaraa @1791: yes, Singapore – population at 5.4 million c.f. Scotland 5.3, economically successful, high standard of living, although not a proper democracy and no so good on human rights.

  8. lefty e

    I think more important than what ‘rag’ you honour about Scottish independence is the deliberate decision by Scotland to create a Parliament and form of Government that is NOT westminster.

    It is a work in progress and cannot be realised until independence as the Scottish Parliament currently has very little wriggle room.

    The Scottish Parliament is more democratically elected, it sits in semi circle with largest party in the centre, it secretely elects the Presiding Officer (speaker), it has powerful all-party committes to draft legislation and meet in various places around Scotland (all recorded, open to public), it has avenues for all citizens to comment on draft legislation and recommend changes to legislation).

    That is what Australia should learn, instead of this corrosive black/white, stay the same Westminster system.

  9. Mr Pyne also allegedly threatened to call Mr Ashby a “pathological liar” if he told the media about their discussion and Mr Pyne’s offer of assistance.

    Pot calling the kettle black.

  10. lefty e

    We’ll still need a referendum to change the flag, and if we’re changing it, we might as well dump the Jack.

    Of course, getting that referendum means our politicians will have to vote for one.

  11. The Ashby/Slipper story won’t get much public traction for the simple reason that all the main protagonists were and are basically unsympathetic, unlikeable characters: “bottom dwelling slugs”, to use Joseph Alsop’s phrase, who seem rather to have deserved each other.

  12. swamprat

    Interesting post. I hadn’t heard about the good democratic practices of the Scottish Parliament. If we were to design a set of political institutions for the express purpose of solving real-world problems in a free and peaceful society, it’s hard to imagine anyone coming up with the Westminister system. The best problem-solving processes promote collaboration, analysis, creativity, listening, humility, open-mindedness. The Westminister process is adversarial, egotistical, theatrical, didactic, self-indulgent, arrogant, insular, and narrow-minded.

    The more I think about it, the more I believe a Yes victory in the Scottish referendum would be a deserved rebuff to a broken political system.

  13. Raaraa: It’s by no means clear that a referendum is needed to change the flag. That’s simply in legislation, which might well be able to be repealed. (Of course, that could turn out to be politically challenging.)

  14. Nicholas

    Yes, the Anglo-Saxon obsession with dualism is terrible for community resolving problems.

    Fundamental to preventing change is the archaic single member electorates which is handy in preventing new ideas being discused in Parliament because it is very hard for new ideas to get a look in, apart from local passions electing one MP on a sing;e issue.

    It ensures that once revolutionary parties like the Labor Party are gradually castrated to the ineffective bunch of me-too careerists that they have become.

    Instead of graciously vacating the space they squat in, they now fight tooth and nail to prevent a real change party from replacing them by supporting Westminster “stability”.

    I so wish Australia could have a commity lead revolution like Scotland.
    I fear we have become too big for community action.

  15. At the time that UK Government doesn’t need, MPs going to get a pay rise:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29098334

    “But speaking to the Sunday Telegraph in his first interview since taking on the job, Mr Boo said a review of evidence had shown that economic forecasts were improving while MPs’ salaries had “fallen behind” others working in comparable public sector roles. ”

    Meanwhile millions are still looking for a job.

  16. The flag is not in the constitution. The Howard government legislated that the flag could only be changed by a plebiscite. This was probably populist grandstanding as the current flag had bipartisan support and there was no momentum to change it.

    Of course, what was legislated can be unlegislated, but I think that the flag is one of those issues that frightens the horses. It should be left until Labor is safely back in office, has shredded Abbott’s legacy and has settled in as the natural party of government, which in my political memory (going back to the late Menzies period) only happened in the third Hawke/Keating term. Of course that’s when Keating started pushing the Republic.

    In fact, maybe we should get the Republic first then look at the flag.

  17. Nicholas,

    I think NZ was the first Commonwealth Country to abolish Westminster dualism in Parliament.

    I know UK, Canada, Australia (and of cause the rebels in the USA) still find it lucrative.

  18. I think bloody Murdoch is now supporting Scottish Independence…(though his one papaer in Scotland still hates the Jocks)

    Look at the Pic of the Royal Family in the Times….

  19. Do the Royal Family really care whether Scotland go independent or not?

    I mean even if they do, they wouldn’t make it public. After all the Queen will probably remain head of state if Scotland goes on its own? I could be wrong though.

  20. Scotland and Abbott
    ________________
    Abbott’s mad statement that the Scot Nats aren’t the friends of freedom and liberty couldn’t have been further from the truth…but I quess it sprang from his anglocentric view of the world as well as his ignorance

    Perhaps the anger in Scotland over his comments has helped the growing trend of voters for an independent Scotland

    BTW …The British Labour Party Pensions Shadow Minister Rachel Reeves ,in a manner that you might expect from one of Tony Blair’s former mates,,says a Labour Govt in the UK will be even more strict on Pension Entitlements than the Tories…so much for the poor and unemployed to hope for from a UK Labour Govt…though if Scotland goes the 50 odd Labor seats lost in
    P’Ment might insure the Tories will be in power for ever

  21. Not sure what Howard meant to achieve by legislating change by plebiscite.

    If it was to stop future governments from drastically changing the flag, they’d need control of both houses or bipartisan support to bring about a change anyway. And one able to achieve that could easily have repealed that legislation.

    On that note, good night.

  22. 1832

    Howard was trying to make changing the flag harder. Having legislation to require a plebiscite creates a political expectation of a plebiscite before the flag can be changed. This is particularly hard to overturn without a Senate majority because Senate minor parties that favour a new flag are more likely to insist on a plebiscite if there is legislation they can prevent from being removed that requires it.

    A plebiscite always has the chance that it will produce a no change vote.

  23. [The Scottish Parliament is more democratically elected, it sits in semi circle with largest party in the centre, it secretely elects the Presiding Officer (speaker), it has powerful all-party committes to draft legislation and meet in various places around Scotland (all recorded, open to public), it has avenues for all citizens to comment on draft legislation and recommend changes to legislation).]

    Interesting.

    All of which stems, of course, from having a proportional electoral system,which is what Westminster imposed on Edinburgh and Cardiff.

    Suspect the aim was keeping nationalists from getting easy majorities (as FPTP does in Westminster) but it had a range of positives as noted above.

    It makes parties work together,like it or not. Its very interesting that electorates have been forcing the same on single member disctrict systems lately – UK, Australia.

  24. Raaraa

    The current view of the SNP is to maintain the Queen like Canada and Australia.

    But the SNP is not all Scottish independents by a long way.

    The Unionsists make Alecsammon the evil splittist, but many Scots support independence who are not SNP.

  25. The UK Labour Party’s response to an independent Scottland is to build Hadrians Wall II.

    Such a stupid thugish pseudo leftist party it has become since Blair/Brown.

    The ALP is not far behind. Dependent as it is on outrageous crumbs falling from the LNP table.

  26. Zoid

    [You are quiet pathetic, arguing with a Disabled person GG.]

    That GG is an aggressive ars%hole is established.

    But you claiming this is worse,

  27. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    I’m afraid I have slept in this morning and am just getting to start the patrol. With what’s been going on here the last thee weeks it’s unsurprising that I spent 10 hours asleep last night.
    Back later!

  28. Good “morning” Dawn Patrollers.

    Like an adolescent schoolgirl Abbott has several “best friends”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/china-takes-dig-over-closest-friend-remark-20140907-10dngp.html
    Jodi McKay has a simple ICAC “bucket list” – get rid of Eric!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/jodi-mckay-calls-for-eric-roozendaal-to-be-expelled-from-the-labor-party-20140907-10dl5j.html
    The New Matilda on Abbott’s first year.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/09/07/year-tony-credit-where-credit-due-and-theyre-running-lot-credit
    Abbott “absolutely clear” that federal Libs won’t get dragged into the ICAC donations scandal. I thought it already had been!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-absolutely-confident-federal-libs-wont-be-dragged-into-donations-scandal-20140907-10dnib.html
    Calls grow for an inquiry into tax avoidance by international companies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/calls-grow-for-inquiry-into-tax-avoidance-tactics-of-multinationals-20140907-10bt88.html
    Lenore Taylor on Abbott protecting his vulnerable claim that he hasn’t broken any promises. What a dill!
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/07/tony-abbott-protects-a-vulnerable-claim-that-he-hasnt-broken-promises
    One would tend to believe Ashby’s story rather than Pyne’s.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christopher-pyne-allegedly-offered-to-help-find-james-ashby-a-lawyer-and-a-job-20140907-10dor0.html
    And The New Matilda will not be inclined to let go of this.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/09/07/christopher-pyne-faces-explosive-allegations-he-lied-over-peter-slipper-affair
    The Independent Australia looks at the 60 Minutes story.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/60-minutes-of-james-ashby,6873
    Steve Lewis – can Abbott stop his team from stumbling?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/09/07/abbotts-first-year-a-peculiar-two-faced-enterprise/

  29. Section 2 . . .

    The great Public Service redundancy ripoff.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/the-great-public-service-redundancy-ripoff-20140907-109ubn.html
    This is a good article on the phantom menace of atheism.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/07/militant-atheism-religious-apologists-intellectuals
    The Libs can fix this – less regulation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nursing-homes-too-slow-to-install-sprinklers-20140907-10djea.html
    Morrison is making us much unloved by UN Human Rights Commissioners.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/new-un-human-rights-chief-attacks-australia-over-asylum-seeker-rights-violations-20140907-10dlkx.html
    Aussies feel “tasered” by Abbott’s first year says Xenophon.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/aussies-feel-tasered-by-abbotts-year-xenophon-20140907-3f0vq.html
    Child care support accessibility is suffering.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/childcare-support-needs-to-be-more-accessible-20140907-10dixb.html
    Essendon now has to deal with some big decisions.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/essendon-has-to-deal-with-some-big-decisions-20140907-10dmfa.html
    Andrew Dyson with Abbott’s first birthday cake.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Ron Tandberg mourns the demise of the RET.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe gives us plenty to see at Abbott’s debauched first birthday party.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

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