BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor

With the only new poll being a status quo result from Essential Research, it’s a dull old week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new poll this week was the regular weekly finding from Essential Research, which produced an essentially status quo result. With earlier polling that was stronger for Labor washing out of the system, the latest reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a minor continuation of the trend to the Coalition, who are up 0.2% on two-party preferred. There is also a one-seat shift on the seat projection to the Coalition, who make a gain in New South Wales. For what it’s worth, this leaves the numbers looking very much as they did at the 2010 election. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor”

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  4. When polls say “support” a political party, it is out of the options they are given. Support does not mean like, and is only relative. In some cases it might be “I will never vote Labor on principle and I slightly prefer Tony Abbott to root canal work, so I support him.” We should not be surprised. Some people will never vote Liberal on principle either. As in NSW recently, the same trend in reverse has reelected some Labor governments that should have been ditched years earlier.

    I am not a fan of Shorten, but looking at this poll, neither are half of Australia. His union past and role in both previous leadership coups, is heavy baggage.

  5. Cue tattooed Nat jokes

    [GARY “Angry” Anderson was unanimously elected as the endorsed Nationals candidate for the state seat of Cessnock last night.

    The former Rose Tattoo frontman said he felt “proud and privileged” and that he wanted the seat of Cessnock to have a “loud clear voice in Macquarie Street”.

    “The Nationals Party has the right morals, the right work ethic and a strong focus on regional and rural areas,’’ he said.

    ‘‘I just want to make sure I use my life well.

    “I fully intend to make a difference.”

    ]

    http://www.theherald.com.au/story/2534965/gary-angry-anderson-endorsed-as-nationals-candidate-for-cessnock/

  9. [Paul Keating accurately describes the seven year delay to a super increase as “willfull sabotage”]

    Which it is – if you don’t have assets worth more than a couple of million and earn less than 200k and voted for these liberal clowns you are an absolute idiot.

  11. Gay Marriage

    It seems the Louisiana Federal Court judge ruling in upholding ban on Gay marriage leaves open an all or nothing interpretation …. which is in step with Julia Gillard …. Julia ahead of her time again!

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/03/louisiana-gay-marriage_n_5760012.html

    “For example, must the states permit or recognize a marriage between an aunt and niece? Aunt and nephew? Brother/brother? Father and child? May minors marry? Must marriage be limited to only two people? What about a transgender spouse? Is such a union same-gender or male-female? All such unions would undeniably be equally committed to love and caring for one another, just like the plaintiffs,” he wrote

  13. Buswell resigns, effective immediately.

    [Mr Buswell handed his resignation to Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, Michael Sutherland, on Wednesday.

    “I had a visit from Troy Buswell today at about 11.30 at Parliament House and he handed me his letter which was his resignation from Parliament,” Mr Sutherland told the ABC.

    “His resignation is effective immediately and things will have to be put in train to hold a by-election in Vasse.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-03/troy-buswell-quits-politics/5718004

  14. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    I think a certain PR company might have lost a contract.
    http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/malaysia-airlines-mocked-for-bucket-list-challenge-20140903-10bz1p.html
    Paul Keating lets fly at the government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/paul-keating-labels-government-palmer-deal-to-freeze-super-appalling-and-cheap-ideology-20140903-10bzt0.html
    Abbott spins Australia into harm’s way.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/article-display/abbotts-iraq-adventure-spinning-australians-into-harms-way,6855
    Peter Martin pulls apart Hockey’s “pleasing set of numbers” as increased inventories inflate the underlying growth.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/wheres-the-plan-for-gdp-growth-20140903-10bvhs.html
    It seems God has an iPhone. Why do newspapers print this crap?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/i-was-lucky-god-saved-me-yazidi-girl-tells-of-escape-from-islamic-state-kidnappers-20140904-10c4f3.html
    Stephen Koukoulas with the latest facts on tobacco consumption.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/the-latest-on-tobacco-consumption.html#.VAeHBjK1ZcQ
    How “Team Australia” is hurting the young.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2014/09/03/team-australia-hurting-futures-young/
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/09/03/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-51/
    Ben Eltham on Chief Scientist Ian Chubb’s crusade.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/03/its-wearying-to-promote-science-in-australia-just-ask-the-chief-scientist
    Essendon player Paddy Ryder may invoke a duty of care clause in his contract to walk away from the club. An interesting development.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/essendons-paddy-ryder-on-verge-of-walkout-20140903-10c40d.html

  15. Section 2 . . .

    Looks like a model of IPA/Liberal productivity to me. What a bastard!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/childcare-centre-faces-legal-action-for-paying-workers-2-an-hour-20140903-10bqhb.html
    Early signs of success for the Sydney lockout laws.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/lockout-laws-reduce-violence-drunkenness-in-sydney-and-kings-cross-police-20140903-10bxgo.html
    Now surprise witnesses are being used by Watson at ICAC to spring the lies being told.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/surprise-witness-says-suspended-liberal-mp-garry-edwards-planned-to-lie-to-icac-20140903-10boha.html
    Abbott is getting carried away with playing international soldier.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/well-fight-them-in-the-east-the-west-and-the-middle-east-20140903-10c2yl.html
    Surprise surprise! Emissions jump after the carbon tax is abolished.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/emissions-from-energy-generation-jump-most-in-eight-years-after-carbon-price-axed-20140903-10by8d.html
    Peter Martin shakes off yesterday’s article and now tells us how low income earners are hurt most by the super changes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lowincome-earners-hit-hardest-by-abbott-super-changes-20140903-10by18.html
    A secret isolation unit on Manus Island is uncovered.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/secret-isolation-unit-used-for-misbehaving-asylum-seekers-on-manus-island-20140903-10bwol.html
    Comic Sans makes a controversial debut on the front page of the SMH.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/comic-sans-comes-of-age-on-the-front-page-of-the-sydney-morning-herald-20140903-10brl2.html
    South Australia’s idiot Senator Bob Day calls for the scrapping of the minimum wage for the young.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bob-day-calls-for-removal-of-minimum-wage-for-young-in-maiden-speech-20140903-10bz15.html
    Unsurprisingly the Nats lobby Pyne for changes in the higher education policy that affect regional university scholarships.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/national-mps-call-for-changes-to-university-scholarship-scheme-20140903-10byrq.html

  19. sceptic

    Your focus on Gillard seems perverse.

    Why not target the two men who COULD have made same sex marriage happen, yet also voted against it?

    If Abbott had allowed his MPs a conscience vote, ssm would be in legislation now.

    Rudd didn’t lift a finger to try – indeed, he told people he was going to vote for ssm and didn’t.

    Yet you target the woman who allowed a vote to go to the Parliament (Rudd didn’t) and allowed her MPs to vote according to their conscience (Abbott didn’t).

    As for your characterisation for her reasons, they don’t accord with a single sentence from her on the public record. Believing that marriage should be between a man and a woman doesn’t mean that you believe extending it to gays will result in open slather, with people marrying their gerbils.

  20. In my own field of transport it seems you no longer need years of experience to run a large complex operation. This is good news for both the content free in the public service and also for ex-politicians and staffers who want to be golden parachuted into a well paid job after being turfed from politics. I am not so sure it is good for passengers.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/bcc-transport-chief-geoff-beck-has-no-transport-experience-20140903-10c0wz.html

    Like I said, Utopia is a documentary with the names changed.

  21. morning all

    [MADNESS. This was the word that sprang unsolicited from the lips of several Liberal MPs yesterday as they described their reaction to their leader’s plan to expel Geoff Shaw from Parliament.
    On Wednesday Frankston’s representative did what was required of him by apologising for breaching the code of conduct by which MPs are meant to abide.
    Many MPs would have hoped that the matter ended there. But for reasons, known only to Shaw, he then decided to tell the Herald Sun he thought the whole process was a farce.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/denis-napthine-extends-the-geoff-shaw-show-in-state-parliament/story-e6frfkp9-1227046866283

  23. It must be very confusing for the captain of Team Oz in allocating “goodie” and “baddie” tags at the moment. Hopefully the public servants that he hates so much can convince him that the world is not a simple place of evil black vs. pure white.

    [ISLAMIC State militants have issued a threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin, vowing to oust him and “liberate” the volatile North Caucasus over his support of the Syrian regime.]

    http://www.news.com.au/world/islamic-state-militants-vow-to-oust-vladimir-putin-over-his-support-for-syrian-regime/story-fndir2ev-1227047046860

  24. Following on from the news that Ashby will be “revealing all” on 60 minutes. Saw this tweet by David donovan of Independent newsite

    [Remember this re: Ashby on #60Minutes: Harmer hired Anthony McLellan to be Ashby’s spin doctor. McLellan is a former 60 Minutes producer.]

  25. For anyone needing to do a spot of penance, then I suggest going over to Victoria’s Herald Sun and read todays Andrew Bolt ….

    It is the most servile , obsequious claptrap you could ever read on one Tony Abbott

    Just have a bucket or VERY LARGE barf bag handy !!!!!!

  26. zoomster @19: Gillard is not some bystander in this debate, she took a side against it (allowing a conscience vote for people to vote against the party platform which demands supporting it), and she set a precedent that Labor MPs can expect to be able to take off their party clothes and be a temporary Member of the Shopping List Catholicism Or Whatever Party on certain things when they were elected as Labor MPs. Gillard was just another example of the party’s lack of strong conviction on anything that might be seen to scare off voters in Western bloody Sydney. Abbott denying a conscience vote is gross but it’s at least consistent with his MO.

  28. edward o
    [Abbott denying a conscience vote is gross but it’s at least consistent with his MO.]

    Or, to put it another, more emphatically accurate way, Abbott is consistently gross and deserves the strongest criticism.
    Less than Gillard.

  29. [ victoria

    Posted Thursday, September 4, 2014 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    badcat

    Life is far too short to waste a millisecond on reading Bolt!
    ]

    ————————————————

    So true, Victoria – I very rarely even read the Sun itself but was looking for a possible report of a road accident in our area and Dolt’s article was on front page …. I obviously live in alternate universe to that clown – but he – and the media in general – serves this crap up every day and I guess it ‘changes’ some minds that are not prepared to think for themselves.

  32. victoria

    Blot sometimes writes comedy gold. The best ever was the emotional story of how St Tony came knocking on his door. Blot was in despair over his martyrdom by the “PC gone mad ” court system and people were being so unkind. An inspiring tale of how he was at the point of ceasing to write until St Anthony dropped in and after dinner a red and a shoulder to cry on Blot was inspired to battle on.

  33. edward o

    Load of bollocks. Gillard didn’t invent the concept of a conscience vote – don’t see you getting your knickers in a knot, for example, about Rudd’s conscience vote on stem cell research.

    It might be consistent with Abbott’s MO, but Gillard allowing a conscience vote on an issue that Rudd did his best to totally kill off is also consistent with hers – she showed respect for differing views within the party.

  35. There is a cartoon on the front page of the Australian that seems to depict Senators Milne and Wilkie watching something on TV with captions – ‘Like a scene from an Indonesian abottoir’ and “didn’t even stun him first’.

    If this is actually referring to the beheadings, then it is the worst thing I have ever seen on Australian news, worse than the beheadings themselves -and the fucking OZ should be shut down.

  36. Good Morning

    On Gillard and equal marriage. Gillard allowed a conscience vote because she had a principle that she could not tell fellow MP’s what morals to have.

    I wanted Gillard to support equal marriage. However given her beliefs I give her credit for not standing in the way and I think others should too.

  41. Player One

    The critics of the uranium industry are in India, which surely should tell Abbott something. But they are poor people, so why would he listen.

  42. Conscience votes should be reserved for life and death issues: abortion, euthanasia, embryonic stem cell research, war. There is a reasonable argument to be made that it would be unconscionable for a party to compel its MPs to vote in a way which contradicts their beliefs about the sanctity of life, when life begins, how to value one life against another, how life may be ended, and so on.

    Conscience votes ought not to be used as a cop-out when a debate will be difficult for the party. Parliamentarians are supposed to deal with difficult issues. If they can’t handle that they should find a different line of work.

    The question of whether same-sex relationships should have equal value in the eyes of the law is not a question of life and death. It’s a civil rights issue. Julia Gillard should have required the parliamentary Labor Party to vote in favour of party policy (which is to permit same-sex marriage). The conservative Catholic MPs should have been required to suck it up and fulfil their duty to enact party policy.

  44. Zoomster, numbers aren’t there for marriage equality even with a conscience vote. I get to 32 in the Senate from the Greens (10), Labor (15), Libs (rather generously 5), Xenophon and Leyohjhelm. So to pass it would need all 4 PUPs plus at least two of Libs to reverse their positions.

    The House is even worse. Best case scenario is 61 in favour. There is no more votes on the ALP side for it so that means someone has to find 15 Libs to change their minds. Can’t see that happening in the next few cycles.

    Marriage equality is only going to happen with the major parties start kicking out the homophobes and bind on a vote. Probably easier in the Libs. If the ALP had figured out how to get rid of the SDA, they would have done it by now.

  47. “@latingle: DLP Senator John Madigan speaking in the Senate. talking about internal warfare in the party and staffer seeking Lib pre-selection.”

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