BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor

With the only new poll being a status quo result from Essential Research, it’s a dull old week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new poll this week was the regular weekly finding from Essential Research, which produced an essentially status quo result. With earlier polling that was stronger for Labor washing out of the system, the latest reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a minor continuation of the trend to the Coalition, who are up 0.2% on two-party preferred. There is also a one-seat shift on the seat projection to the Coalition, who make a gain in New South Wales. For what it’s worth, this leaves the numbers looking very much as they did at the 2010 election. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor”

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  2. Tones will have Morrison on the job.

    [http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-07/pakistani-navy-man-jumps-ship-seen-hiding-in-bushes/5725442]

  3. There is/was a footy ground, in Qld I think. The grandstand was named after o local legend.

    I wish I could remember the name, I think his first name was Charlie. The thing I do remember was the kerfuffle about his nickname also being used. It was Nigger…

  6. Diogs,

    Why the supplements programme at Essendon will not go away.

    “Thompson said he hoped ruckman Paddy Ryder would remain at Essendon, suggesting that if the Bombers were to lose him “it’s a poor reflection on our club.” Ryder is understood to be thinking of leaving the club as a result of concerns he and his partner had about possible birth defects to their unborn child stemming from the supplements program of 2012″.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/essendon-coach-pleads-for-asada-issues-to-be-resolved-20140907-3f0rb.html#ixzz3Cb2kIh59

  7. Socrates

    [Morning all. Regarding Scotland, I hope the Scots make up their own minds for emotional and cultural reasons. The economic arguments are crap. Singapore became independent from Malaysia in the 1960s. It had nothing to do with economics – all about the Chinese/ethnic Malay issue. Now they are per capita one of the richest countries on earth. The Scots can make it work if they want to. If they do not want to change, then don’t.]

    Did you know that Singapore is probably the only country to have been forced its independence on them?

    The British too were reluctant to give complete self-rule to Singapore and only make it some sort of crown dependency in 1959 until 1963, when Singapore voted in favour of merger with Malaysia.

    In 1960s, because of racial tensions and the clash between the Malaysian Federal government of Abdul Rahman and the Singapore government of Lee had big arguments over many issues including the allowance of the Bank of China to operate in Singapore, the latter was ejected from the Federation.

    The British military only left in the 1970s.

  10. But Malaya retained the ‘sia’ which reflected a combined Malaya-Singapore.

    The malayas thought they would end up dominated by the singapore and their own chinese.

  12. [Obviously there are some power plays and distraction strategies being employed in this whole saga. I am just not sure which direction it is coming from as yet.]

    My ultimate feeling is that the “explosive” material will be presented on 60 Minutes, and then during the week easily shot down, leaving nothing in it place. The resulting gap in the evidence will then be used as an excuse to permanently shut down the entire matter.

    The fact that 60 Minutes was discredited will then be applied to the entire Ashby Affair, leaving only one conclusion: Slipper was a dirty old man, a hypocrite, a thief, Gillard was at best duped (or even complicit), James Ashby is a porr, put-upon gay guy who was just trying to do his job, and Tony Abbott is pure as the driven snow. End of story.

    The truth will probably be somewhere else (i.e. not covered by 60 Minutes forensic scalpel), but if the subject of an LNP conspiracy is ever brought up again, it’ll be dismissed witha laugh line, as some kind of paranoid joke.

    They used the same technique on George W. Bush, with his alleged absence from duty in the Texas Air National Guard. It was an old story that just wouldn’t lay down and die. It kept coming up. It was affecting Bush’s re-election chances.

    Then, after a year or so of speculation, “explosive” documents were produced by CBS News, showing that his superior officers had been considering disciplinary action against Bush for going AWOL, with the implication that he joined the Guard to avoid the draft.

    Strangely, the White House was uncharacteristically calm about the whole thing. They didn’t seem too bothered. There was waffle about “the truth coming out” eventually. “Let’s wait and see what CBS has,” they said. Just like 60 Minutes tonight.

    Then it turned out one of the documents was faked, clearly so. It was obviously written using Microsoft Word, kerning, fonts and everything else. An obvious counterfeit. No dispute from anyone on that. Microsoft Word didn’t exist when the letter was allegedly written in a USAF office at some backwater base, back in the sixties.

    This blatantly counterfeit document was used to shut down all debate, from whatever source, on Bush’s alleged absence without leave from the Texas Air National Guard. CBS News anchor Dan Rather (one of the Bush camp’s greatest perceived threats) was forced into retirement as he had personally handled the story (News anchors over there are real journalists).

    In short, a story that was probably true was clobbered via an obviously concocted piece of evidence. No one dared bring the subject up again, any other evidence that pointed to Bush being a shirker was lumped in with the fake letter, tainted by it. Bush won the next election easily.

    A similar thing happened with the Pink Batts project. Once the Gallery decided it was a dud, then any commentary – even positive evidence that it had worked well – was dismissed with a giggle. On Q&A, for instance, the mere utterance of the words “Pink Batts” was enough for any (then Opposition) Liberal panel member to shoot down any Labor government initiative at all, whether it concerned the Economy, the GFC or even the Spotty Tailed Numbat. Once the meme takes hold, usuaully based on either false evidence or lack of examination of the real evidence, it’s a non-starter forever more.

    This morning on Insiders Barrie Cassidy glibly dismissed the Pink Batts program as a complete disaster and a failure. He dismissed it as such because the politics had been bad for Labor. It had nothing to do with whether the project had done any good for the unemployed or the economy, or the environment.

    The political judgement on Pink Batts has been used to taint any other judgement on it, factual or counter-factual, outcomes or non-outcomes based.

    The only outcome Cassidy was interested in was that Labor “lost” the politics and that 4 dead boys proved it. The entire program, including the $20 million Royal Commission into it was dealt with in less than 30 seconds, tied off with a pink ribbon and despatched to the dustbin of history. Mention that a million homes had successful installations, tens of thousands retained employment, or that 4 fatalities was a lot less than the usual fatality rate from insulation installations like this, would have been just laughed off by Cassidy as naive desperation.

    Kathy Jackson is another case in point. So much has been invested in her being a living saint (the Parliament even publicly apologized to her, AND Bolano!), that completely damning evidence that she has been rorting her union members’ funds to feather her own nest are still not enthusiastically covered, even when given as sworn and documented evidence to the TURC. The media had an agenda with Jackson. She was to be used as a bludgeon to get Thomson. They elevated her to the status of Joan Of Arc. They will not admit their error lightly, or possibly even at all. I think I’ll be dead before Kate McClymont even hints that she might have gotten it wrong about Jackson. The sun will lose its fire before any Liberal politician retracts the devotion to her.

    Once again,a meme is established and nothing, bar nuclear explosion will dislodge the media’s position on it.

    They have to be always right, or else what use are they?

    Michael Gordon in The Age yesterday admitted that he believed every word of Abbott’s reassurance about delivering grown-up, stable government, no surprises, no excuses. He swallowed the lot! Yet his column yesterday was pregnant with anticipation that soon, just around the scorner, any day now, just you wait, Abbott will suddenly flick the switch to Statesman, instead of Scrapper, fulfilling Gordon’s expectations. He still believes it’s possible for Abbott to be someone else other than the standover man and bovver boy he’s been all his life! He believes it because to admit otherwise would be to admit that his entire body of work pre-election was complete and utter crap, and that any fool could see Abbott would be a dud PM.

    The Nine Network is not Labor’s friend. It is the government’s friend. It will not put to air anything that will permanently damage Abbott or his government. There may be some initial sparkle,, but eventually 60 Minutes’ case will fall apart, leaving Abbott and his gang smelling like roses, completely exonerated of any involvement at all. No one will dare bring the matter up again, because after next week it’ll be a no-go area.

    60 Minutes tonight is most likely designed to shut the Ashby saga down for good, not to revive it.

    Let’s face it, what other story has 60 Minutes ever broken that has lasted more than a day?

  13. Raaraa,

    You said you didn’t believe my assertion that it is cheaper to rent than buy in some areas the other evening.

    The maths is pretty simple. A 30 year loan of $300k at 4.74% fixed for 2 years yields a repayment of $1563.14 per month or $360 per week.

    There are plenty of people paying more than $360 per week rent.

    So, you can squeel bullshit as much as you like. The facts don’t back you up though. Not that facts are likely to enter any part of your considerations or opinion splurting.

  14. CTar1

    The Supreme Court/Federal Court building is one of the more stark examples of the concrete lined with sprayed asbestos period of construction.

  16. @GG/1563

    Just because it exists doesn’t mean you will get a loan for $300k.

    It doesn’t work that way.

    You cannot rent without 1/3 of your income set side to pay for it, that is the base rule.

    Experience with trying to rent, and I believe there is a rule of thumb for those who are buying houses too (45% of your income? I can’t remember).

    Rentals and Banks have what you call a rule of thumb.

    You just don’t like loosing to an argument, which seems to be a trait on PB.

    You also must be pretty dodgy to allow someone with very little money to allow to buy a property, and basically bankrupt them if they fail to pay payments.

    It’s partly the reason for the fallout in USA if I remember correctly, and also partly the reason for a company in UK too (Barclays).

  17. A 30 year loan of $300k

    And perhaps your facts could include what the median house price in Melbourne or Sydney is?

    It’s not $300k. It’s not even close to $300k.

  18. GG

    While I sympathise with Ryder, I don’t think there would be any risk to his unborn child. Certainly if the mother was the one given the supplements it would be possible but as father it would be almost unheard of.

  19. liz hayes @thelizhayes · 1h

    James Ashby points a finger at the Liberal Party that goes way beyond Qld. He doesn’t hold back #60Mins tonight

  20. If Ashby has evidence that the Libs tried to presure him into making a false complaint, it could get very interesting.

    Otherwise I can’t see much happening.

  21. When we last rented, in Epping, we were paying $500 per week on premises that the owner hoped to sell for over $1million. Certainly, I doubt that even had we been able to procure the loan to buy it, that we could have hoped to purchase it for as little as $900k (which is as much as we thought, in theory, it was worth).

    The place needed some expensive renovations, but I suspect the plan was to pull it down and perhaps build some sort of villa complex there (presumably after buying the place next door).

  24. The Sydney Convicts are the world champion gay rugby union team.
    (Of course League fans would argue that all Union teams by definition are gay- but this is a specifically gay team)

  25. When international Rugby was first instituted the Australian teams would respond to the Hakka by doing the “corroboree”. This was a completely unscripted piss take. In 1910 the Wallaby captain Dr Paddy Moran (later a founder of the college of surgeons) banned the practice saying “we have taken everything else from the Aborigines must we take their dignity”
    The Kangaroos continued to do until 1963.

  29. zoid,

    If someone would prefer to buy a house and pay less rent/repayments per week then I’m actually totally in favour of supporting such rational behaviour.

    As for the rest of your dreary little post of woe, I’m more convinced you don’t know your arse from your elbow about property.

  30. Diogs,

    It’s a matter of trust. Paddy and the rest of the players have been put in a compromising situation by their club. Despite your well informed assurances, you can’t give a categorical opinion on the matter.

  32. Re. Ashby… the non-Nine journos will decide his story doesn’t have legs, and that will be that.

    They won’t want to give their competitors a leg-up.

  36. [ davidwh

    Posted Sunday, September 7, 2014 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    It’s the Nigger Brown stadium in Toowoomba. As far as I know it hasn’t changed despite all the complaints.
    ]

    ———————————————–

    There was of course a brand of candy/sweets in Oz that went under the name N****** Boy ( eg Licorice )- that changed their name to Lucky Boy

    The Secret World Of The ShowBag :

    Lucky Boy Licorice

    Perhaps the most valuable were those produced by N***** Boy Licorice, which, for obvious reasons, changed its name to Lucky Boy in the early 1960s

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/the-secret-world-of-the-showbag-20140211-32dgl.html#ixzz3CbYUyBCm

    ALSO : More Racist Licorice

    ….Just wanted to let everyone know that my late grandfather Reginald Percy Clark was the founder/owner of The N***** Boy Licorice Company (later to be renamed The Lucky Boy Licorice Company). He never intended to be racist in any way

    http://cacb.wordpress.com/2008/11/30/more-racist-licorice/

  37. My guess is that whatever Ashby says tonight will be denied by the other parties. He will have no evidence so it will be his word against those he buckets.

    Situation normal.

  43. The great thing about Port today and this year has been their unrelenting run style of play.

    How long before they get tired?

  44. When speaking of Niggers it is hard to avoid the work of my distant relative and Whitlam’s transport minister, Charlie Jones.
    There is some debate about what he actually said to Michael Somare in the negotiations about PNGs air service prior to independence.
    One version is that there was a problem with Ansett airlines and Charlie said
    “You can argue until you’re black in the face, Michael but Ansett are the niggers in the woodpile”
    The other version is that in small talk Somare asked him what he did as a hobby
    “Fishing” said Charlie
    “Oh what do you fish for” said Somare
    “Niggers” was the reply (Jones was a fan of the Black Bream)

  45. OC,

    There is also the famous story of the West Indies touring side in the late 70’s after a game against a country eleven at Ballarat.

    A young woman jumped on the team bus and tried to take a team photo using the old advertising slogan “Everyone say Coon!”.

  46. @GG/1579

    Yes, and be 30 years of debt!

    Just like the way the Liberals want us to be in debt.

    So we spend most of our lives paying off our own debt, congrats GG.

    $100k for a course, $300k for a house, $10k for a car, plus others.

    GG, you don’t understand crap all.

  47. GG:

    If Richmond don’t pull their finger out soon it won’t matter if Port run out of puff cause they’ll be so far ahead on the score!

  48. zoid,

    So, your assertion is that people should pay rent for 30 years and have nothing to show for it at the end?

    You are a nuff nuff!

    The vast majority of loans are churned after 7 years. Only a small proportion go the distance. Every repayment made gives my clients equity. Inflation and fashion gives them capital growth.

    This is because people trade up, re-finance or start using their improved financial situation to make further investments in property.

    No doubt you enjoy living at the bottom of the dunghill. You are only happy when you can whinge about something.

  49. @GG/1598

    The only one that is whinging is you currently, whinging about someone at the so called bottom of the dunghill.

    You are quiet pathetic, arguing with a Disabled person GG.

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