BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor

With the only new poll being a status quo result from Essential Research, it’s a dull old week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new poll this week was the regular weekly finding from Essential Research, which produced an essentially status quo result. With earlier polling that was stronger for Labor washing out of the system, the latest reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a minor continuation of the trend to the Coalition, who are up 0.2% on two-party preferred. There is also a one-seat shift on the seat projection to the Coalition, who make a gain in New South Wales. For what it’s worth, this leaves the numbers looking very much as they did at the 2010 election. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.8-49.2 to Labor”

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  1. [We knew Pyne was caught up in Ashby’s dramas – this isn’t news.]

    Well, we all knew — especially the bizarre “drinks” that took place that night between Pyne and Ashby.

    But the MSM ignored it. So it’s “news” if the mainstream press finally report on it.

    Too little too late!

  2. Wonder if 38 minutes will mention any of this –

    [ The young man says he had a sexual relationship with Mr Ashby in Townsville in 2003, when he was 15 and Mr Ashby was in his mid-twenties.

    Mr Ashby moved there from Newcastle, where he had resigned from his job as a radio DJ in controversial circumstances – convicted and fined for making threatening and abusing phone calls to a rival radio host.

    The young man’s email to Mr Slipper has been obtained by 7.30, and in it he also claims Mr Ashby ended their relationship to enter a relationship with another 15-year-old.

    “In 2003 I met James Ashby through a mutual friend. He was working for a radio station and in the process of moving to Townsville,” the email said.

    “We began a sexual relationship which lasted for a few weeks before James broke it off as he had started a relationship with another person, which lasted two or three years.

    “I was 15 at the time, however what we did, under Queensland law, cannot be consented to under the age of 18.

    “The guy James broke it off for was also 15 at the time they began their relationship.

    “James left me feeling used and disgusted with myself.”

    7.30 has also seen Facebook messages that Mr Ashby sent to the young man confirming their relationship.

    “I really never gave an explanation behind me f***ing off and not saying why,” Mr Ashby wrote.

    “Strangely enough the reason was so pathetic but I thought I’d share it with you.

    “Your mum freaked me out when she walked in on you and me in bed. That did my head in for some strange reason.” ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-30/730-james-ashby/4164568

  3. “@samanthamaiden: Fact that Pyne had drinks with Ashby in Speakers office, no doubt coming up, we also know but sounds like we’re going to learn more on that”

  4. The LNP thought that Ashby would be amenable to the best looking and most youthful MP (Roy), and Pyne saw himself as some sort of prep school match maker.

    This is real private school boy stuff.

    Pathetic.

  5. 60 Minutes so far just a re-hash of the first Statement Of Claim.

    Since Ashby has withdrawn it, I’m wondering whether Slipper could sue his arse off (forgive pun) for defamation.

    So far, this is worse than I thought it could possibly be. Ashby is bringing up stuff he had a chance to have adjudicated in court, the Federal Court no less, but which was at first found to be a an abuse of process, and now it’s all being re-birthed as if it was something new.

    Cheap. Vicious. Nasty.

  6. I think this is just going to be somewhere between Days of our lived and The bold and the beautiful aka Lays of our wives and The old and the pitiful.

  7. “@paulkidd: From tonight, I decree that the left and right of the Liberals will be known not as ‘wets’ and ‘dries’ but ‘twinks’ and ‘bears’. #60minutes”

  8. Slipper is not going to go back.

    What chance he had was frittered away when, no doubt on the advice of Roxon, he engaged her old law firm, Mayruce Bkackburn, who advocated a high risk approach of striking out the claim and then separated from him on the steps of the court.

    Private citizens who suffer heavy defeats in court don’t come back.

  9. [“@paulkidd: From tonight, I decree that the left and right of the Liberals will be known not as ‘wets’ and ‘dries’ but ‘twinks’ and ‘bears’. #60minutes”]

    Only Roy would be considered a “twink”.

    The rest are just fugly and of no physical interest what so ever.

  10. Ingenuous Liz Hayes asks with feigned incredulity “were you not surprised that he was a married man?” (who of course never venture onto the other team).

    And of course it was OK to pursue the issue of Slipper’s question to Ashby about his ejaculatory history, but not to pursue Ashby’s answer.

    Two grown men with shared gay interest living together and engaging in speculative banter about their possible future relationships ….. dear dear!

  11. As expected 60 minutes has apparently failed to deliver on its tags of explosive, dynamite and rocking the Abbott govt with its take on the Ashby saga.

    Press gallery journalists can rest easy knowing tonight wasn’t the night they were bested by tabloid TV out of Sydney, no less.

  12. Bushfire Bill: The Insiders dream team would be Laura Tingle, George Megalogenis and David Marr, hosted by Sarah Ferguson. That should be the line-up every single episode. The ABC should grow a backbone and ignore the outcry from conservatives. The conservatives’ concept of balance on the ABC is that for every insightful commentator there must be at least one vapid commentator; every statement of reality must be balanced by a myth; every intelligent claim should be offset by a stupid one. Also, the daggy music segments have got to go. It may give the producers a few giggles but it’s tiresome for everybody else. The show’s producers shouldn’t try to be cute or funny. They lack the comedy chops to pull it off.

  13. “@daveyk317: Why isn’t Brough in Gaol?

    “@theMickMorris: So Brough admits soliciting the theft of info from Slippers diary! #60mins””

  14. Did 60 mins pay the royalty fees?

    Retweeted by Josh Taylor
    James Findlay ‏@james_findlay 1m

    Is this the music from Titanic? @60Mins

    😛

  15. Told youse.

    We always knew about the harassment details. We always knew Brough got Ashby to poach Slipper’s diaries (only now Brough admits it).

    We were pretty sure Pyne was involved, but now a new meeting venue’s come out. Big deal. Pyne will deny it with his usual bluster, and that’s only if someone asks him about it (which they probably won’t).

    My opinion of Ashby as a traitorous little rat is unchanged. As is 99% of my knowledge of the case.

  16. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 14h

    Lively IndyRef betting on Betfair as YES soars to a 32.8% chance. Was 13% just eight days ago.

  17. Ashby is lying about the job offers. He thought he was on a definite winner. He and Karen Doane bragged to each other about it. They wrote-up their CVs and texted each other about it.

    Still, my opinion is unchanged: he’s a liar and a traitor.

    Who would trust him ever again?

  18. Poor diddums Ashby now in tears. He doesn’t want his family to be watching this.

    Too late, Princess. You went on 60 Minutes.

  19. I haven’t watched any ‘commercial TV’ for years.

    Tonight has confirmed my assessment.

    38 minutes is still all ‘packaging’ and scant substance.

    Any pyne involvement is unsubstantiated – no matter what some may think or want to believe.

    whowuda thought ashby *the victim*. /sarcasm off.

    Not that I’m saying slipper is squeaky clean. A range of matters have been bubbling over many years. Good speaker, but the multiple dockets to vineyards cannot be defended or overlooked.

    There ya go.

  20. This is one of the times living in WA has its advantages.

    Thanks to commentary on Twitter and PB, there’s absolutely no reason to switch 60 Minutes on when it comes on here in an hour or so.

  21. By the estimation from comments here, 60 minutes has gone for 2 hours now.

    In that time has there been anything of value or interest uncovered that was worthy of airing?

    I’m guessing not. In which case, this whole episode has been as expected: a total WOFTAM.

  22. [ there’s absolutely no reason to switch 60 Minutes on when it comes on here in an hour or so. ]

    or ever again in my assessment.

  23. [This is one of the times living in WA has its advantages.]

    Not just living in WA, but not watching commercial TV unless it’s sport.

  24. Mr Denmore nails it

    “@MrDenmore: If #60Mins covered Watergate, they’d spend half the time grilling Woodward & Bernstein about why they called the source ‘Deep Throat’”

  25. [In that time has there been anything of value or interest uncovered that was worthy of airing?]

    No. All that was predicted of it was true.

    There was a mention of Wyatt Roy, and a meeting that hadn’t been made public with Pyne (where Pyne allegedly offered Ashby free lawyers, but Pyne will deny that.. in fact has already denied it to 60 Minutes).

    It was an almost complete re-hash of the allegations that Ashby withdrew from the Federal Court at the time he dropped his case. He’s seeking to get them out there again via (what used to be) Prime Time TV. A rat is always a rat. He failed in court, now he’s trying tabloid TV.

    It will have no effect – explosive or otherwise – on “the Abbott government”. Pyne will obfuscate. The caravan will move on.

    Who’s Wyatt Roy, anyway?

    It now give the Coalition a perfect opportunity to brush any future allegations under the carpet with a dismissal like, “OH Christ! You’re not on THAT ASHBY THING again, are you?”.

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