Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor’s post-budget bounce.

Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Re Sri Lankan union officials.
    They had no chance of getting a visa.
    If they had sufficient funds they would have denied them on the grounds of being corrupt.

  2. [And last night on QANDA Gareth Evans was gladhanding Paul Kelly as “writing brilliantly” (presumably in the vain hope of getting reciprocity for his book).]
    Maybe he likes the way he writes you utter loser.

  3. Essential 52-48 ALP. So the “terror” dividend has plateaued. Abbott must be hanging out for a fresh bombing or beheading.

  4. “@kevinbonham: #Essential Poll Best Aus Treasurer Costello 30 Keating 23 Swan 8 Hockey 5 Dunno 35. 2PP still 52-48 to ALP. #auspol”

  5. This is the first time since 1998 that Opposition 2PP has been below 52 yet Opposition Leader has led as better PM.

    Previous such instances (based on Mumble’s conversions) were six Keating-Hewsons (mostly just pre-election), one Keating-Howard (just after Howard came in) and two Howard-Beazleys.

    There has never yet been a case of the Opposition trailing on 2PP but leading on better PM.

  6. “Best Aus Treasurer Costello 30 Keating 23 Swan 8 Hockey 5 Dunno 35”

    Better get ‘Dunno’ in as Treasurer ASAP

  7. Labor can’t ignore the politics of “security and terror”. Shorten needs some “smart and strong” policy clothes to neutralise the issue so we can concentrate of the LNP “domestic debacle”.

  8. poroti:

    [Peta must have recently programmed the Ab Bot to “smile” more. Needs some work.]

    “The uncanny valley is a hypothesis in the field of human aesthetics which holds that when human features look and move almost, but not exactly, like natural human beings, it causes a response of revulsion among some human observers.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncanny_valley

  9. @Paddo O/169

    If Labor does this then bet your bottom dollar that Murdoch will use it against Labor, something like “Home Invaders”.

  10. [ caf

    Posted Tuesday, August 26, 2014 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

    poroti:

    Peta must have recently programmed the Ab Bot to “smile” more. Needs some work.

    “The uncanny valley is a hypothesis in the field of human aesthetics which holds that when human features look and move almost, but not exactly, like natural human beings, it causes a response of revulsion among some human observers.”
    ]

    —————————————————–

    Always be sincere… even if you don’t mean it.

  11. [Abbott must be hanging out for a fresh bombing or beheading.]

    What a disgusting sentiment.

    It’s completely apt.

  12. Zoid @ 173

    You Can’t ignore the populations fears. labor needs to sound smarter- make Abbott look egotistical with his Captain Team Aust and bungling with community relations and making us more insecure with his premature war footing.

  13. Stop the fear
    I am tired of the Liberal parties constant fear.The budget, Muslims, boat people,Russia, China , Muslims, next is little green aliens
    maybe Bill Shorten should start a 3 word slogan
    stop the fear
    Australia has just got our soldiers out of war and now the Liberals want to send them in again

  14. what the hell is Mesma wearing, an appalling matron-of-honour outfit from the 1950’s?

    It is appropriate, as she is doing the 1950’s Yellow Peril, now Brown Terror, in the House today

  15. Bishop will not rest until Australians are safe and secure from the threat of ISIS.

    Mission accomplished.

    Gee, that was quick…

  16. Hockey,
    “We will not engage in inter generational theft”.. but we will leave the nation-building to the next generation because we are too lazy to borrow and build today.

  17. This “intergenerational theft” meme is a load of rubbish – like we aren’t leaving literally trillions of dollars in infrastructure to those that come after us.

  18. “Humanitarian dividend from Border protection policies”!! how disgustingly Orwellian. Condemning asylum seekers to mental health problems, suicides and rapes to justify their policy. A Simple logical counter- Asylum seekers believe that the risk of drowning is outweighed by the certain cruelty of indefinite detention – nothing humanitarian about that!!

  19. Paddy O

    The punish the AS is not just expensive because of the cost of detention. Now we have a Class Action with more to come

  20. [This “intergenerational theft” meme is a load of rubbish – like we aren’t leaving literally trillions of dollars in infrastructure to those that come after us.]

    There was an old dude named Ricardo who had some insightful things to say about this problem, but that was some time ago now, so it’s probably not relevant.

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