Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor’s post-budget bounce.

Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 19
1 18 19
  1. Caf

    [Fran Barlow: The major cost, I imagine, would be lower overall productivity as more time was taken up by transport. This would particularly be the case in regional areas with less population density, where public transport would necessarily run to sparser timetables.]

    My model was confined to urban areas. Outside of them the rules could be far more permissive. I imagine that public transport in urban areas would have been far better in the absence of most private use motor vehicles. Also, some areas of productivity would have improved. Transport would have been far more efficient since mean traffic speeds would have been far higher. Also. I imagine that respiratory illness would have far been lower, and therefore you’d have fewer sick days. Equally, people wouldn’t be travelling from as far away, so public transport times would be very competitive with today’s long commutes.

  2. davidwh:

    My own view is that there isn’t much we can do in the ME that is going to have meaningful or lasting benefits to the people there.

    And yes, our govt is always going to trumpet its allegiances with allies over and above domestic matters. Hence that earlier tweet I referred to in saying as much.

    Next 2 years is going to be mega boring.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Abbott’s internal woes are coming to light now.
    Abbott’s blood is in the water and News Ltd is nowhere to be found – New Matilda.
    Yes, he’s under pressure over his travel claim reasoning.
    No doubt Abbott will study polling results before making a decision to go to war. Again!
    Michelle Grattan’s take on Abbott’s rush to war.
    Nick Xenophon piles into Alan Joyce.
    Now it’s 9 disgraced NSW Libs – and still counting!
    How can religious chaplains be “non-judgemental? Abbott is a disgrace on this ideological matter.
    Mark Latham says Labor needs to see “Bill the Bastard”.
    This will be interesting. Eventually!

  4. Section 2 . . .

    Kevin Bloody Andrews – Family Man of the Year. What an accolade!
    Pyne’s finest hour is near.
    Now this inquiry (if it gets up) will be a beauty!!
    Joe Hockey’s not having a great time lately.
    Labor’s questioning gets Hockey (at last) to admit to a $7b pensions reduction.
    “Joe has lost his mojo – here comes Julie Bishop” says Paul Sheehan.
    A desperate Malaysia Airlines goes into cut price mode.
    Nice work from Kathy Jackson.
    Peter Wicks says the wheels fell of Kathy’s bus yesterday at the hearing.
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.

Comments Page 19 of 19
1 18 19

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *