Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor’s post-budget bounce.

Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. SO PUP stealing votes of GREENS, making the 2PP better for COALITION.

    BUT Shorten better PM, and Abbott has higher Disapproval again.

  2. From the other thread…

    A 7% positive shift in Shorten’s approvals, Abbott goes backwards… and Shorten is preferred PM again… and the ALP is going backwards?

    I get that using the preferences flows from the last election is the reasonable standard… but I wonder if the shifts in the votes of the minors is not being reflected the properly in the TPP #s.

  3. Kim Williams on Lateline if you want to see some Murdoch bashing while digesting poll results.

    Speaking of which steady as she goes before the parliament sits is good for Labor. The LNP was expecting an lift in their popularity to get a buffer

  4. [Abbott: Approve 36 (0) Disapprove 55 (+1)

    Shorten: Approve 39 (+3) Disapprove 40 (-4) ]

    Early days yet, but Shorten’s recent legal matters don’t seem to have hurt his standing.

  5. Pretty much a situation unchanged poll although slightly better ratings for Shorten. No doubt there has been a drift back towards the Government since Parliament has been up, but with Parliament back and the focus already beginning to shift back to what is now a budget farce, I would expect a drift the other way in coming polls. Having said that, we can certainly expect the Coalition and their cheer squad to continue to try and drown out coverage of the budget by continuing to bang the national security drum.

  6. Obviously it wasnt the greatest week for Shorten, so these figures tend to suggest that he should stick his head up more.

    Reminding the public that there is an opposition leader appears to boost his ratings.

    Which frankly doesnt say much for Abbott.

  7. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4m

    #Galaxy Poll NSW Will politicians be convicted of corruption due to #ICAC: Yes 54 No 32 #nswpol #auspol

  8. Guytaur, I’m occasionally critical of your habit of pasting irrelevant tweets here apropos of nothing. #12 is a case in point. It’s very worthy in its way, but what the hell is it doing here? The reader has no idea what it’s about unless they follow the link, which you give them no reason to do.

  9. I do seriously wonder whether the use of last election preference flows for the PUP can be justified when calculating the TPPV. PUP isn’t like the Greens, ideologically well-identified. It’s a work in progess, and I strongly suspect that those who voted PUP in 2013 thought they were voting for a dissident conservative, whereas it’s much clearer now that they are going for a middle of the road, non-ideological populist cohort. In effect, the PUP is functioning like a reincarnation of the early Australian Democrats: if it wasn’t for the history attached to the words, they’d be talking all the time about keeping the bastards honest.

  10. Just when we get a second Victorian thread in a few days, and also a NSW thread, and a discussion gets going a new Commonwealth polling general thread comes and steals the top position and thus the discussion on the Victorian thread will die off.

  11. 18

    I believe the reason for the last election preferences is that that is what has been shown to be the most accurate.

  12. 21

    I never said that it should be mandatory to go to the state threads, however there is nothing wrong with going to a thread for a state you do not live in and some of the best (intelligent, not as repetitive, etc.) discussions happen on state threads.

    I also mentioned NSW and I do not live there.

    My point is that those who are interested are far more likely to go to a state thread if it is above the Commonwealth polling and general thread.

  13. a swing to PUP seems unexpected after Clive’s rant. or has he stolen hansonite Qld votes? I think there’s something a bit sus about this result. it’ll be interesting to see the next. in the interim, the Oz columnists will build the narrative of ‘comeback’. However, abbott back in the country and parliament will damage the LNP.

  14. Sustainable Future perhaps the +2% others didn’t go to PUP? It may be one of those weeks where a few people couldn’t decide so just parked their selection in others.

  15. Newspoll’s others rating was 16% four weeks ago, 13% two weeks ago, and 15% this week. What this movement tells us about support for Palmer United, I can state with confidence, is nothing.

  16. The Libyan Debacle…so much for victory
    A US writer looks at the collapse of the Libyan state,as armed gangs fight for control of cities and towns,,,oday planes from Benghazi have bombed Tripoli…A NEW FIRST IN THE CIVIL WAR NOW RAGING
    ALL THIS BECAUSE THE US OVERTHREW A FUNCTIONING STATE,AND HAS BEEN UNABLE TO REPLACE SAME…so Libya had become a kind of Mediterranean Somalia…all because of more failed US policies in the region
    So bad is the situation in the two major cities that the Govt has fled Tripoli and is trying to operate from Tobruk


  17. Anti-Piracy Investigator (that’s a thing?) calls for an independent court (what a waste of tax payers money!) like in the UK (who would of guessed? Did he donate to the libs?):

    “Michael Speck, an independent Australian anti-piracy investigator and former policeman, said the sentence was fair but added the case showed that Australia needed a separate, specialised court that would make it less costly to prosecute those who downloaded or distributed copyright infringing material.”

    Less costly to who? To them?

    Perhaps if the idiots spend as much time arguing for rubbish like the above, they would have places that would promote legal means, but currently, there is only Foxtel, when it comes out 1 year later, or your local EB Games for games, or Woolworths for movies.

    I don’t feel sorry for an industry who deprives people of a normal every day life to be sent to jail or have finds as large as a corruption.

  18. The first sighting of what the media lizards liked doing to Gillard. Journos setting arbitrary pass/fail tasks by which to judge the PM.

    [Tony Abbott has two weeks to fix 12 months

    The next two weeks of parliamentary sittings must be used to turn this around or Tony Abbott’s first year will be judged as mediocre, even by his barrackers.]

    Read more:

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny – Abbott has two weeks to fix his pretty ordinary year.
    Peter Martin hits the Nail on the head. It’s TAX expenditure that is the big problem.
    The University of Sydney gives Pyne the big thumbs down.
    Things got hotter for some of the big names at ICA yesterday.
    The Royal Commission has forced the Catholic Church to show its financial position. It may dramatically increase the amounts of its payouts.
    Linking the GP tax to research was a big mistake says a Nobel Prize winner.
    Peter Martin on the RET.
    And the SMH editorial chimes in on it as well.
    The Business Spectator opines that Abbott should be careful he doesn’t go the same way as the IPA’s dumped Alan Moran.

  20. Section 2 . . .

    Will David Murray come up with some unwelcome surprises for Abbott and his mob?
    Yet another green light for the spivs?
    Yesterday at the Unions Royal Commission.
    Michelle Grattan looks at Pontificating Paul Kelly’s book.
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    Holocaust survivors protest the Israeli government over its actions in Gaza.
    David Pope on the budget emergency.

    Alan Moir on Obama’s terms as President.
    David Rowe’s take on the budget emergency. (A nice view of the back of Pyne’s head, too).

  21. Today there will be a condolence motion in Parliament for the victims of MH17. Daresay question time will be delayed by at least 20 minutes

  22. As per article linked above, The Libs are not faring well in the state of Vic due to the worsening unemployment situation

    [The average Victorian youth unemployment rate for the year to July 2014 was 13.8 per cent, up from 12.3 per cent from the same period a year earlier. Victoria is the second worst Australian state for youth unemployment after Tasmania.
    Many young Victorians are unsuccessfully applying for hundreds of jobs, and are being turned down because they are told they do not have enough experience. ]

    Read more:

  23. Morning all. Interesting that in almost all cases the catholic church has fully reported to the RC, the guilty priest is not only retired, but often now deceased. Are there no living paedophiles still among the clergy? I suspect there are quite a few, whose records are being kept secret. Justice delayed really is justice denied.

    Also as I said, the church’s primary objective has always been keeping the money. I doubt this figure of $300 million for Melbourne archdiocese is all of it for Melbourne. Other streams of cash go off to Rome and are kept in various funds for various purposes.

    Politically the question will be whether any incumbent state or federal government will have the moral courage to remove the legal exemptions that are the cause of the problem. What we need is a poll to show that there are more votes to be won than lost.

  24. Thanks for the link BK. Peter Martin’s article is correct – tax deductions for super and negative gearing are the root cause of any budget problem. Any government that acts on them will soon have plenty of money to spend.

  25. victoria

    So, in other words, youth unemployment hasn’t been this bad in Victoria since the last time we had a Liberal government…

  26. BK

    Thanks for the link. A view inside the party, showing how out of touch these RWNJs are.

    [The Bernardi camp represents Abbott’s core supporter base, the people who put him in charge. And they desperately want to see the issue of climate change obliterated from the policy landscape.

    The Australian’s political columnist Paul Kelly, in his latest book, reveals that Turnbull’s support for a price on carbon became a pitched battle for the heart and soul of the Coalition. The federal director of the Liberal Party, Brian Loughnane, goes as far as to suggest that Turnbull’s pro emissions trading stance was creating a level of division within the party that would “spiral out of control into one of the worst crises in the history of the Liberal Party”. Nick Minchin claims that if Turnbull’s position had prevailed, a large proportion of Coalition senators would have ended up crossing the floor in the subsequent parliamentary vote, and led to “thousands upon thousands of resignations from the Liberal Party”.

    It seems hard to believe that such passionate distaste for emissions trading would not also feed into opposition to the Renewable Energy Target.

    However, while Bernardi and Alan Moran’s views may be widely held within the Coalition, for the wider community they are seen as extreme, alarming and deeply unpopular. The government’s botched attempt to repeal section 18C of the racial discrimination on the basis that people have the “right to be bigots”, illustrates how the deep-conservative camp of the party is out of touch with mainstream Australia.]

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