Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor’s post-budget bounce.

Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Interesting that the article on youth unemployment uses the ’15 years’ in the headline, but at no stage draws the dots…

  2. In the Murdoch rags that sometimes litter the tables in our lunchroom at work, there was some story that Abbott wished the RAAF to be involved in Iraq air strikes. The obvious question is:why? Barry Cassidy highlights Abbott’s “itchy trigger finger”.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-22/cassidy-abbott-scratches-his-itchy-trigger-finger/5687838

    Politically is this wise in terms of Australia’s national interest? Does it win voted from any who would not already be voting Liberal? Militarily it will achieve nothing the. USA would not have done themselves.

    Rather than making martyrs of ISIS fighters in the eyes of their followers, why don’t we focus on the home grown supporters of Islamic extremism. Isis and Al Queda both emerged from a small and very extreme school of Sunni Wahabism known as Qutbism. In my view it is no better than an Islamic equivalent of Nazism. This ideology is heavily disputed by many scholars within the Islamic world, yet these motivating ideologies and their promoters and supporters seem to go largely unchallenged here. We would be better off confronting these radical motivating forces, rather than embarking on foreign adventures. As it stands, Australia is a source of fighters on both sides of the conflict, a bizarre position indeed.
    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qutbism

  4. How broken USA is:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/386253/californias-firearms-waiting-period-deemed-unconstitutional-charles-c-w-cooke

    “In the decision released this morning, Federal Eastern District of California Senior Judge Anthony W. Ishii, appointed to the bench by President Bill Clinton, found that “the 10-day waiting periods of Penal Code [sections 26815(a) and 27540(a)] violate the Second Amendment” as applied to members of certain classifications, like Silvester and Combs, and “burdens the Second Amendment rights of the Plaintiffs.””

  5. [Labor’s Bill Shorten branded that “extortion”, choosing to see the statement as a threat to increase taxes. But what other options are there? If outlays for health and pensions etcetera exceed revenue and are projected to be growing at a faster rate than inflation – as all agree they are – what other options will there be? Assuming that doing nothing is not an option, that only leaves either reducing spending, or increasing revenue.]

    Love the tone of utter bewilderment here!

    [If outlays for health and pensions etcetera exceed revenue..]

    I do note the airy ‘etcetera’ here, but spending on health and pensions don’t even come near to exceeding revenue, according to these handy Budget charts —

    http://www.budget.gov.au/2014-15/content/overview/html/overview_31.htm

    As for ‘other options’,

    1. Labor had a ten year plan. There may have been a few ideas in there.

    2. Axing the proposed PPL. Not repealing the mining tax. (Not repealing the carbon tax would also have helped).

    3. Raise the Medicare levy. (OK, that’s an extra tax, but I’m not against extra taxes, just hysterical journalism)

    4. Don’t invest taxpayers’ money stupidly. (Infrastructure is great, but it has to be the right infrastructure).

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-has-two-weeks-to-fix-12-months-20140825-1084ia.html#ixzz3BRVmrsHP

  7. victoria

    Drivel but perhaps a good sign. Not good for incumbents when the media lizards start setting bars they demand a polly to jump over , just ask JG.

  8. Zoom 55

    A good list, though as Peter Martin points out, axing some of the super tax concessions would raise more money than all of those combined. You could add one.

    5. Do not make Joe Hockey treasurer.

  9. Good Morning.

    William.

    From last night. I take your point. In this case I stuffed up and posted the wrong tweet @ 12. That one was no aid in encouraging people to donate to funding the mapping of indigenous massacres.

  10. poroti

    Get your point, but as zoomster has illustrated in her post. What to do. Reduce spending or increase revenue. Wow what insight by Mr kenny!

  13. victoria

    [Wow what insight by Mr kenny!]
    And getting paid big bucks for such insight. No wonder newspapers are bleeding red ink.

  16. Letter from my electricity provider —

    [The carbon tax will be removed from your rates…This equates to estimated savings for an average Victorian customer of $132 over this 12 month period…]

    Hang on – where’s the other $320 coming from?

  17. Morning all.

    Got my electricity bill yesterday, first since carbon ‘tax’ was removed, only to find that it hasn’t yet, but assured that it will be.

    Meanwhile, the unit price looks like it’s increased, so why bother.

    As we said all along, those who truly believed Abbott when he said removing the ‘tax’ would lead to lower household costs were clearly delusional.

  18. The EU financial problems may have one side benefit for Australian farmers: there is serious internal pressure to restructure farm subsidies, in (politically sellable) ways that would reduce them.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-25/europe-cap-charles-sturt-university/5695510

    This story illustrates the extent of the problem.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2110261/Queens-Sandringham-estate-receives-7m-farming-subsidies-EU.html

    Have a good day all.

  19. Some budget emergency. Abbott has found another $64 million to bolster his poll numbers with a terror announcement.

    This because no one in politics dares ask why extra money is needed when the law enforcement agencies are the most well funded.

    However I hope the money comes from the programme for detaining people in offshore detention.

    Its a lot of money to investigate and follow at most 150 people from reports we have seen.

  20. The delicious irony if a few years down the track Australis’s exports are penalised for us not having a carbon price etc.

    Particularly for nats voters…

    [ Nick Minchin claims that if Turnbull’s position had prevailed, a large proportion of Coalition senators would have ended up crossing the floor in the subsequent parliamentary vote, and led to “thousands upon thousands of resignations from the Liberal Party”.]

  21. That’s an encouraging Newspoll personal shift to Bill Shorten and I’m sure he’d be very relieved.

    The PV/2PP figures seem to confirm it’s basically line ball which is bewildering and disheartening.

    It’s clear the Govt spin doctors have Mr Abbott chained to the issues in Syria/Iraq as it’s assisting the Govt in the polls.

  22. [ victoria
    Posted Tuesday, August 26, 2014 at 7:59 am | Permalink

    Kenny’s offering today was pure drivel. ]

    Yep. Like most days.

    They wonder why people refuse to pay for such tripe.

  24. Rex Douglas

    This poll is as good as it gets for the government. Labor has been either in the lead or very competitive for a year now and especially since the handing down of the government.

    The LNP does not have health and education to fall back on when their economic competence fails.

  25. Paul Kelly writes

    [The deepest lesson of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era is that Australia’s political system is failing to deliver the results needed for the nation, its growth in living standards and its self-esteem.]

    Er, if you got that lesson from the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era, you weren’t paying attention, Mr Kelly.

    The biggest lesson from the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era was that if you trash a good government (who was achieving in all those areas) whilst talking up a poor Opposition, then you end up with a Bad Government which results in a decline in living standards and national self esteem.

    But that would be to admit that the media played some role in events, which of course they didn’t. And if they didn’t, then anything anyone from the media has to say about these events is irrelevant, because apparently they don’t DO politics.

    [The process of debate, competition and elections leading to national progress has broken down…]

    Well, I can remember Labor running around consulting people, putting options on the table, etc etc.

    As for competition, that requires an even playing field, where both sides of politics are analysed not from the viewpoint of wishful thinking but from one of true objectivity.

    Again, we get back to – if one side is condemned for everything it does, regardless, and the other side’s proclamations (fifty policies costed and ready to go) are accepted as fact without question, then no, there is no competition or debate.

    That’s not the fault of either political party or either of their various leaders.

    [Forces contributing to the situation, Kelly says, include a poll-driven culture, the empowerment of negative campaigns and sectional interests over the national interest, and the nature of today’s media.]

    And who creates the poll driven culture, fails to draw attention to the influence of sectional interests and empowers negative campaigns? (Obviously not today’s media, if I’m to take Mr Kelly with even a slight dose of salt…)

    [Kelly poses two central questions. Is the political system now “so internally destructive that the prospects for successful and reforming government have been seriously diminished?” And is the shift against bold reform because of “defective leadership” or the political system itself? ]

    I’ll post two of my own —

    Is it possible for a successful and reforming government to have its ideas and achievements fairly reported in today’s media?

    Might the preference of the media for sound and movement over objective analysis and investigation be getting in the way of reform?

    [One reason for the strength of the polity in the 1980s was the quality leadership. Bob Hawke had strengths that Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard lacked and so far Tony Abbott shows no sign of displaying. ]

    He also had weaknesses that Rudd and Gillard lacked, too. And he didn’t face an unfair media (which, as I’ve said before, is unfair because it’s lazy and ignorant, not because it’s biased).

    [As PM Hawke headed a government successful in identifying problems and tailoring solutions and, together with Keating, having a conversation with the public about economic reform.]

    And I would argue that Gillard tried to do exactly the same thing, but her conversations were derailed by the media focussing on guys in koala suits. Her government certainly had no trouble with identifying problems and tailoring solutions.

    [Kelly makes the point that it is by no means certain that these two would have succeeded in the present system.]

    Right. So leadership isn’t the problem, then, is it?

    [What is likely, however, is that better leaders than the recent and current incumbents would have greater prospects of success..]

    Except you’ve just said they wouldn’t. And you’re right.

    [“Nothing lowers a citizen’s estimate of democracy more than the sight of two politicians hurling abuse at each other in an otherwise empty chamber, but this is now a common sight in legislatures around the world”.]

    And it was the way they operated before television, too. It’s just no one saw them.

    Not saying it isn’t a problem, but to suggest (and this is not Kelly being quoted here, btw) that it’s a product of modern politics is simply wrong.

    It is, again, a product of modern media.

    [For the last few years, we have had the politics of enemies in the federal arena.

    One manifestation of this is that the Abbott government has royal commissions under way that are pursuing both the former Labor PMs…]

    From one side only, note – although Kelly does not point that out.

    [It is interesting to speculate whether the tenor of federal politics would have been different if history had delivered other prime ministers.]

    Again, the article has already said it wouldn’t have been, without identifying why.

    [Would a Coalition campaign against Kim Beazley PM been as bitter as the one against Gillard?]

    It wouldn’t have needed to have been. Beazley would have been a pushover compared to Gillard. He never was a fighter.

    [Even more pertinent, if Malcolm Turnbull were PM would he be able to win more co-operation on and support for budget reform?]

    Oh hahahahahahah – the man who couldn’t bring his own party with him to deliver a policy they’d all gone to the previous election supporting? The man who either deliberately colluded to create a scandal to depose the sitting PM or (if he didn’t) was taken in by a con artist?

    Seriomously??

    [In the final paragraph of his latest major chronicle of modern Australian politics, Kelly writes: “There is no guarantee that politics can emerge from its current trough to meet the challenges of the next decade”.]

    There’s hope. Kelly’s getting older, for starters. The major newspapers are losing readership faster than any political party in Australia is losing members. It’s arguable that their remaining readers aren’t there for the political commentary (which is good, given that there isn’t any worth the name). The new on line offerings seem to be better at real journalism. Even without the NBN, more people are getting their information about politics on line.

    So it might be possible in a few years to have real conversations about politics again.

    [One might add that, looking at prospective future prime ministers from both sides, there is not much sign of a figure with the talent and public appeal who could, when their turn came, rise above the barriers and toxicities in the political culture to craft and sell a strong reform program.]

    Except, of course, the present LOTO did just that.

    https://theconversation.com/better-leaders-could-shore-up-australias-eroding-political-culture-30854

    (this didn’t start out as a critique…it just grew…)

  36. How Peter Greste and his colleagues fate is tied to the “fun” in Syria and Iraq

    [Qatar and the reason US hostage Peter Theo Curtis has been released

    ………Peter Greste and his mates, banged up in the Tora prison outside Cairo, must be wondering when their prison keys will be jangling in the lock. Not yet, I fear. After Qatar supported President Mohamed Morsi of Egypt rather than his nemesis Field Marshal/President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Al Jazeera was forfeit.
    It’s all about whose side you’re on – and whose side you wish to be seen to be on. And about how much money you’ve got]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/qatar-and-the-reason-us-hostage-peter-theo-curtis-has-been-released-9690048.html

  39. 26 August 2014, 6.47am AEST

    [Australia’s prime minister Tony Abbott is uncommonly fond of sport metaphors, not least when addressing the domestic terror threat. His latest championing of “Team Australia” in trying to sell his government’s proposed national security reforms symbolically turns Australia into a giant dressing room and stadium.

    Presiding over the nation as team captain, Abbott assumes the mantle of unassailable Bradmanesque hero rather than a Shakespearean “scurvy politician”.]

    https://theconversation.com/dead-poets-society-meets-team-australia-under-captain-abbott-30852

  41. My mother and I have just had a conversation about the end of life, following on the question on Q&A last night. I was not impressed by Paul Kelly pontificating about it and nor was the lady who asked the question. She obviously felt very strongly about one’s right to choose the moment.

  43. Retweeted by Kenneth Tsang
    James Hutchinson ‏@j_hutch 5m

    According to CommsDay this morning, the full NBN cost-benefit analysis should be released this evening.

  45. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 16s

    Big week with data retention report, ASIO chief at NPC, two NBN reports due, and NBN Co financial results.

  46. lizzie

    That lady exposed the fear campaign that is the basis of denying the individual’s right to die.

    The fear campaign says we must deny the individual the right to choose in case others force people to die. The Logan’s Run syndrome.

    I too think its an individuals right to choose to die. People should be able to do so even if assistance may be required.
    As long as safeguards are in place to keep it the individual’s choice and not forced to die or stay alive is the point.

  48. Re Zoidlord @77: swiftly or not, the Government has yet to make any case as to why these ‘reforms’ need to pass at all. This needs to be done in the context of an election campaign where people will know what they are voting for, which wasn’t the case last year.

  50. As I predicted, the polls are narrowing because Abbott is taking advantage of international events and using it to scare people about terrorism and whipping them with the flag. As it’s the only thing he hasn’t screwed up politically, expect this to be his only song sheet for the tenure of his PMship, while his ministers try to sneak in the substantial economic policies through the back door.

    Fortunately, the one positive thing is falling back on this stuff is actually a sign of desperation and, while its short term yields are great (look at Howard and Bush in 2004), it’s a very superficial rise and can come crashing down quickly.

    Another thing to take quick solace in is the fact that, despite all this, the Coalition still aren’t leading in the polls. Any recent surge might well be soft, on the basis that, at the end of the day, people are still going to vote their pockets.

    I suppose my real concern is what they will sneak in the name of “fighting terrorism”

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