Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor’s post-budget bounce.

Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 19
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  4. IF Shorten really cares about Disability and workers rights, then should reject the Business Services Wage Assessment Tool (BSWAT) Payment Scheme Bill.

    Kenneth Tsang ‏@jxeeno 2m

    So… @NBNCo hasn’t activated a single new brownfields FSAM since 1st Aug. Hopefully we see some this week? #NBN

    ACOSS ‏@ACOSS 3m

    ‘Senators urged to vote against payment scheme for workers with disabilities’ by @DHarrisonAgeSMH http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senators-urged-to-vote-against-payment-scheme-for-workers-with-disabilities-20140824-107qkt.html#ixzz3BS4haiZK … @PWDAustralia

  6. That automated transcript service ‘tveeder’ is a hoot. http://t.co/93wa8PTxFj

    Apparently Kym Williams talked about his old ‘bogs’ Murdoch, following Williams recent ‘Depp pap tour’ from News Ltd.

    Given the state of politics, tveeder may be no worse than the authentic thing.

  10. centre

    Whatever else you can say about Palmer. Stupid is not one of those.

    I am thankful for this. While I would never vote for him and his party he is stopping the extreme agenda Abbott is trying to foist on the country.

    The very reason people vote differently in the Senate.

  11. Zoomster@75

    We read Grattan’s piece from BK’s links (thanks again BK) and then we saw your post. Good one so I put it on Twitter – hope that’s OK.

  14. When these businesses started out,they were sheltered workshops in the true sense of the phrase. The provided activity rather than work.

    My late husband was on the founding steering committee of a major one in South Australia. It was started in the 1960’s in by parents fundraising outside shopping centres and holding raffles. There was absolutely no facilities in the northern suburbs of Adelaide for adults with intellectual disabilities. Nothing, post school, not a single thing, not even any respite either.

    The cost of having the ‘trainees’, as they were called, supervised, the costs of providing facilities, and the focus on providing post-school activities resembling work was the focus. Parents scoured local businesses for work that could be done in the makeshift workshops, packing stuff or sorting stuff. They were given a couple of old transportable school buildings, but had to raise the money to move them. They bought a mini bus. They rented a house to use for emergency respite.

    The trainees were paid enough to not affect their pensions and parents contributed volunteer labor and resources to the organisation. There was no possibility at all of paying more, and many of the trainees had huge support needs.

    Later commercialisation took over, forced onto it by the government, and natural progression,of course. The board of management moved with the times. Now some of the original trainees would not get a placement in such a facility because their support needs are too high and they would not be productive enough to participate. They are streamed to more care-type programs, than work related.

    The organisation does train their workers to be placed in open employment, and supports workers to make the transition and employers who want to be involved. Interestingly, their enterprise bargaining process is very robust, and would be a good model for any workplace.

    It is time for the next phase, which is wage parity.

  16. Conroy was criticized for big red button:
    Kenneth Tsang ‏@jxeeno 3m

    The red button makes a reappearance RT @elizabethcreasy: @NBNCo switched on in Taree @nbnnews #midnthnews

    Kenneth Tsang ‏@jxeeno 3m

    The red button makes a reappearance RT @elizabethcreasy: @NBNCo switched on in Taree @nbnnews #midnthnews

  20. [The red button makes a reappearance RT @elizabethcreasy: @NBNCo switched on in Taree @nbnnews #midnthnews]

    Zoidlord Yeah, yeah, big deal. They’re missing out much of it and it was Rob Oakeshott who got anything for the area.

    We had a letter from Telstra last week to say that we can get excited about NBN Fixed Wireless coming to our address. We only need to follow 3 steps to get connected.

    We’ve got Satellite NBN with WIFI router. Would NBN Fixed Wireless be better? We’re in a difficult reception area and wireless on its own doesn’t work. Why would NBN FW work?

    Can someone help me to understand please. Telstra have not been particularly helpful.

  21. @BH/120

    Nothing from personal experience, but from what I hear Fixed Wireless is better because NBN sats are just interim atm till 2015.

    Check with NBN CO directly to see if you can get good signal if that is possible before changing over.

  22. Does anybody think that under Labor such a situation would not have been met with headlines shouting about Labor “disunity” , “chaos” , “factions” , “cabinet conflict ” etc etc ?

    [Tony Abbott hoses down tax hike threat and spruiks importance of research]

  23. haha,

    Not long after increasing their Fibre on Demand costs, BT In UK now is increasing broadband prices:

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/aug/23/bt-price-increase-6pc-home-phone-broadband-football

    “The hike is nearly four times higher than the current rate of inflation, which was 1.6% last month under the consumer prices index measure. Announcing the price hike, John Petter, chief executive of BT’s consumer division, said the company was “sensitive to the tough economic times”. However, one expert asked whether the increase will appeal to customers who have no interest in sports following BT’s expensive outlay on football rights since 2012 and might question whether they are being forced to subsidise BT’s football coverage.”

  25. [@political_alert: Maurice Blackburn launches class action against Commonwealth and Scott Morrison over injured asylum seekers]

    Maurice Blackburn must relish how a private piece of litigation for the benefit of individuals (and them in term of fees) is characterised as a political matter with all the attendant free exposure.

    The way the ABC give them wide coverage is another great aide.

    Their rivals, Slater & Gordon and Turner Freeman have to pursue commercial relationship with some mighty odd bedfellows (given the firms’ proud union roots) to achieve like exposure.

    Turner Freeman’s family law department representative once shared the airways with that grub Luke Grant on 2GB and became part of a manly slagathon of their estranged wives

  26. [Does anybody think that under Labor such a situation would not have been met with headlines shouting about Labor “disunity” , “chaos” , “factions” , “cabinet conflict ” etc etc ?]

    Poroti Those words would be the least of it. I felt a bit sorry/embarrassed for Paul Kelly on Q&A. He seemed so desperate to get HIS message out without drawing too much attention to Abbott’s insane method of governing.

    Abbott and his cheesy ‘Captain’ grin is wearing.

  27. Zoomster:

    [Is it possible for a successful and reforming government to have its ideas and achievements fairly reported in today’s media?]

    If you mean by media,”the MBCM” and “fairly reported”, “given the prominence it is due with careful analysis”,then I’m going with no. All governments ought to get that whether they are successful, reforming or not.

  28. BH

    Labor should be asking Captain Abbott, what he has against some of members of team Australia. Namely students, people seeing their GP and the unemployed.

  32. BH

    [Abbott and his cheesy ‘Captain’ grin is wearing.]
    Last week it was truly barf worthy to see the cheesy grin Abbott adopted after telling how a muslim voter told him that he considered Abbott to be captain of ‘Team Australia’. The worst part was seeing him adopt the rictus of a grin at the end of the sentence and waited for the audience to catch on that it was the cue for applause.

    Peta must have recently programmed the Ab Bot to “smile” more. Needs some work.

  33. Hello very happy back, home, internet back on after 2 days. Doctor yesterday said am getting better, which I knew start physio this afternoon. Even better a friend who is a real”LNP” supporter told me yesterday will never vote for them again, with Hockey and Abbott in charge and don’t even mention Pye to her. Her whol whole family will be changing Music to my ears 😀

  34. [
    How come Abbott is launching Kelly’s crap book & the ABC is screening it. Unreal.
    ]

    While PM for the first time Kevin Rudd launched Paul Kelly’s last book. Seems to be a bit of a tradition.

  36. And last night on QANDA Gareth Evans was gladhanding Paul Kelly as “writing brilliantly” (presumably in the vain hope of getting reciprocity for his book).

  39. Now that Abbott isn’t always powdered, primped and perfumed for his stunts, we catch glimpses of the haggard reality. He seems to have aged through stress far faster than some others I knew.

  40. [Labor should be asking Captain Abbott, what he has against some of members of team Australia. Namely students, people seeing their GP and the unemployed.]

    victoria He really has no idea, has he? We turned on the telly this morning just in time to see him telling his story of the Iman and Team Australia.

    As Poroti said above – he waited again for a good reaction but the journos moved on. Fitzsimmons wrote in the SMH the other week that Abbott is a good bloke but insane. Unfortunely it’s visible atm or maybe that’s fortunate 🙂

  42. [guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, August 26, 2014 at 8:45 am | PERMALINK
    Rex Douglas

    This poll is as good as it gets for the government. Labor has been either in the lead or very competitive for a year now and especially since the handing down of the government.

    The LNP does not have health and education to fall back on when their economic competence fails.]

    Not only might it be as good as it gets but it also represents the loss of a shit load of LNP seats even at this level. The liberals have a lot of work to do if they are going to avoid a good kicking at the next election.

  44. [http://www.amwu.org.au/content/upload/files/Media_Releases/AMWUNat_MR_Abbott_denies_Visa_entry_to_Union_delegation260814.pdf]

    What is Abbott scared of here? Surely Unions could give guarantees on this visit by Sri Lankan union blokes.

  45. Thank you Victoria and BH, has certainly made me happy. Another thing the guy who fixed my intenet this morning is a friend and quite big in internet around here, he tells me Ziggy Z frst said when he went in to keep the NBN as it was under Labour, of course then changed his tune Loved what he called the LNP “Bozos” not sure od spelling. 😀

  48. I’m thinking the Coalition are over-represented in this poll the same way the Greens were over-represented in the last one judging by the way Shorten’s performance polling has improved.

    Will probably give quite a different result if Newspoll does respondent allocated preferences.

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