Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor’s post-budget bounce.

Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 19
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  1. ruawake@797

    I wonder who is in possession of the stuff we dropped on the mountain with the starving people , who actually were not there.

    Any evidence that ISIS has not grabbed it?

    Probably got at least some, but still a success if enough got through to the intended recipients.

  2. Shocked to see the report/expose on the NBN. $22bn or nearly $1000 per Aussie would have been wasted if the Gillardine had somehow survived der untergang.

    Amazeballs!

  3. [Probably got at least some, but still a success if enough got through to the intended recipients]

    The intended recipients were not there. Remember the US special forces were dropped on the mountain and found nobody there.

  5. Oh look, what’s the big deal?

    If an Australian muslim wants to fight wars overseas just don’t let them back into the country.

    It’s so boring!

    People don’t know what’s going on, but that’s the whole objective…to make it look serious so Abbott can win a few polling points.

    Disgusting!

  6. ruawake@802

    Probably got at least some, but still a success if enough got through to the intended recipients


    The intended recipients were not there. Remember the US special forces were dropped on the mountain and found nobody there.

    Hasn’t there been another drop to the Turkmen?
    I was reading about it this afternoon.

  8. Centre@804

    Oh look, what’s the big deal?

    If an Australian muslim wants to fight wars overseas just don’t let them back into the country.

    It’s so boring!

    People don’t know what’s going on, but that’s the whole objective…to make it look serious so Abbott can win a few polling points.

    Disgusting!

    So what about the Jews going to Israel to fight? Same treatment?

  11. bemused

    What Jews going over to fight in Israel?

    If there are any, naaa we wouldn’t be told about them?

    So effing BORING, wish it was Thursday night, what a game!

    Fuack OFF Monkey 😡

  13. I recall Abbott and his right wing nutters all condemning Labor and Gillard are racists when they were tightening the rules around 457 visas.

    Now we Abbott getting all bent out of shape determined to have all refugees branded as jihadists

  15. From ABC News…

    [The Prime Minister told Question Time the new units are part of the Customs and Border Protection Service.
    Video: Counter-terrorism units now operating at major airports

    “Similar units will shortly be established at all international airports in Australia,” he said.

    “There will be an additional 80 border force officers stationed at international airports to monitor the movements of people on our national security watch lists.

    “I am advised that these new units have already intercepted at least one person of interest.”

    The Government said the man was arrested after being intercepted at Melbourne Airport en route to Lebanon.

    It said the man, who was travelling with his family, has links to Syria and was deemed to be of sufficient risk that he was pulled off the plane.]

    This reminds me of Barnett’s shark cull….fishing at great expense and no result for imaginary monsters. The only thing preying on us here is the fear-mongering of the LNP.

  17. AussieAchmed@812

    I recall Abbott and his right wing nutters all condemning Labor and Gillard are racists when they were tightening the rules around 457 visas.

    Now we Abbott getting all bent out of shape determined to have all refugees branded as jihadists

    Hahaha… yeah sure. I had a mate who migrated from India having a whinge to me last night about all the 457s taking the jobs. Racist?

  19. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-27/forces-in-high-state-of-readiness-for-action/5700786

    [Senator Johnston said there has to be “appropriate permission” from an Iraqi government but emphasised that the Australian Government had “grave concerns” about the threat of IS.

    “If this situation continues, I think it’s incumbent upon nations that have a strong, clear and understandable reputation and sense of right and wrong to do the right thing here and assist a stable Iraqi government – if we can get one – to defend itself and to retake and assert some reasonable level of legitimate control over these villages,” he told Lateline.]

    Villages? They have to be kidding. Villages!! Abbott is mad-keen to join a war, any war. Where-oh-where is the national interest in this? What possible strategic goal can be realised by such action? Any commitment of Australian forces will be in pursuit of Abbott’s political goals rather than our strategic security. He is mad, bad and dangerous to us all.

  20. This LNP is completely true to type….divisive, sowing fear, trashing the commonweal, spreading lies, myths and ignorance…they are an abomination.

  21. briefly

    [Abbott’s political goals rather than our strategic security. He is mad, bad and dangerous to us all.]

    I doubt the majority of Australians want to get into another war.

  22. Just to let you all know I have the family all safely hiding in our bomb shelter praying to our Christian God that the Islamic State jihadists doesn’t find us and behead us.

    We’re terrified !!!!!!

  25. [South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill has flown to Canberra to lobby key crossbenchers over federal budget cuts he says target health and education services.

    Mr Weatherill is planning meetings on Thursday with Palmer United Party leader Clive Palmer, DLP Senator John Madigan, Victorian Senator Ricky Muir and long-serving Independent Nick Xenophon.
    South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill has flown to Canberra to lobby key crossbenchers over federal budget cuts he says target health and education services.

    Mr Weatherill is planning meetings on Thursday with Palmer United Party leader Clive Palmer, DLP Senator John Madigan, Victorian Senator Ricky Muir and long-serving Independent Nick Xenophon.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-27/weatherill-to-lobby-senate-crossbench-over-budget-health-educat/5701540

  27. [Yep, they are all going to come into the country and behead us all 😯

    S N O O Z E …

    I’m waiting!]

    And under their noses, Golden Dawn in Australia holding forums and recruiting. And they hate immigrants????

    [He said the party had between 60 and 70 “activists” in Australia, but thousands of “supporters” in the large Greek community here, a figure he said was gleaned from social media use.

    Mr Gavrilidis said many of the party’s supporters did not wish to be publicly identified, but that Golden Dawn’s philosophies were proving particularly popular among young Greek-Australians.]

    [However, its members have also become infamous for violent attacks on immigrants, hardline nationalism, anti-Semitism, and use of flags and salutes that bear a striking similarity to those used by the Nazis]

  29. [820
    victoria

    briefly

    Abbott’s political goals rather than our strategic security. He is mad, bad and dangerous to us all.

    I doubt the majority of Australians want to get into another war.]

    I’m sure you’re right, victoria. But that won’t stop them trying to draw us into conflict. In domestic matters, they have to deal with the Parliament. But in military ventures, they have a reasonably free hand.

    Abbott is evidently bored and frustrated with the details of economic and social policy and in any case incapable of thinking beyond the most worthless slogans and cliches. As an alternative, he obviously hopes to associate his premiership with displays of power. Military adventures are practically made for this. The trouble is, it is much easier to get into conflicts than out of them. If he succeeds in taking us to war, Abbott will inevitably find that his fortunes will depend on the actions of enemies over whom he can have no control at all.

    He is looking to join a very risky poker game where there are few real gains available but where potentially great losses may lie. In the centenary year of the outbreak of WWI, this much should be obvious even to a cretin like Abbott.

  30. [Apologies if mentioned previously, but is there any update on a replacement for Nielsen at Fairfax ?]

    How will they do political stories without a poll?!

    Shock Horror!

  31. briefly

    [He is looking to join a very risky poker game where there are few real gains available but where potentially great losses may lie. In the centenary year of the outbreak of WWI, this much should be obvious even to a cretin like Abbott.]

    And obvious to everyone else as well

  36. 832 victoria

    It is very good in the sense that it depressingly but realistically capture some of the process behind projects that happens everywhere.

    Tim Fischer got mentioned.

    I love fast trains but who knows when it’ll really happen 😛

  38. Raaraa @ 831

    Ugh! Today’s “Utopia” was frustrating to watch!

    Not saying I didn’t enjoy it or can’t relate to it though.

    Not sure what you’re on about but I became involved only today in a worryingly similar scenario to that of tonight’s program – a body of people who fancy themselves as movers and shakers, initiating a study for the sake of being seen to do something, even though it’s clear that their ignorance of the factors involved is profound.

  39. Got newspolled tonight. Interestingly it was a survey for Griffith University regarding government in Australia. But at the end of those questions, she asked voting intentions for the federal and state elections. She didn’t ask which state or federal electorate.

  41. Great work Malcolm Turnbull has done, he has shown that no matter how dodgy biased and just illogical a report is there will be some clowns that believe it.

    You would have thought after utegate anyone with two functioning brain cells would have know better, but apparently not.

  42. [Speaking to reporters in the Mid West town of Dowerin today, Mr Barnett said he did not disagree with rating agency Moody’s decision to downgrade WA’s credit rating from AAA to AA1.

    But, he said, he disagreed with the analysis behind it.]

    Shades of that old codger from that British TV series One Foot in the Grave: “I DON’T BELIEVE IT!!!”

  43. Corio

    I’m only frustrated because I could relate to it.

    There are some bright ideas but their talents are wasted. It’s no wonder the turnover is so high.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/new-ideas-for-reef-dredge-spoil-should-be-investigated-queensland-mp-20140827-1090z5.html

    Christensen finally acknowledges the effect of dredging on tourism but is he trying to palm off the blame to those who are highlighting the problem in the first place?

  44. [Shades of that old codger from that British TV series One Foot in the Grave: “I DON’T BELIEVE IT!!!”]

    Just continued to paint himself as both hopeless and arrogant, I don’t think Dixie is earning her money but then again she doesn’t have good material to work with.

  45. [Christensen finally acknowledges the effect of dredging on tourism but is he trying to palm off the blame to those who are highlighting the problem in the first place?]

    Yeah if you didn’t tell them the reef was dead they wouldn’t even notice!

    “Its not dead its resting”

  47. WWP:

    Have you noticed the photos the West has been using of the Premier lately? Ms Marshall has definitely appeared to let that ball drop.

  48. [Gotta love Malcolm… finally, on the sixth go, he got a review that said what he wanted.]

    After he apparently stacked it with sympathetic friends.

  49. [Have you noticed the photos the West has been using of the Premier lately? Ms Marshall has definitely appeared to let that ball drop.]

    No I generally avoid the West except the back couple of pages … but good to know

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