Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor’s post-budget bounce.

Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 16 of 19
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  2. [The article is LOLworthy.]

    I know, they just make shit up.

    Then our feckless media reports it equally, as if that somehow constitutes ‘balance’: giving equal weight to both scientific evidence & some hastily concocted bunch of crap.

  3. A novel idea – the US Bomb both sides !

    ISIS *and* Assad regime targets –

    [ …any military action against Islamic State militants in Syria would also have the effect of putting the U.S. on the same side as Syrian President Bashar Assad, whose ouster the Obama administration has sought for years.

    …In an effort to avoid unintentionally strengthening the Syrian government, the White House could seek to balance strikes against the Islamic State with attacks on Assad regime targets.

    However, that option is largely unappealing to the president given that it could open the U.S. to the kind of long-term commitment to Syria’s stability that Obama has sought to avoid. ]

    http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268798/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=HhRZK0ku

    Mesma didn’t get the memo?

  4. @leftye

    [I know, they just make shit up.

    Then our feckless media reports it equally, as if that somehow constitutes ‘balance’: giving equal weight to both scientific evidence & some hastily concocted bunch of crap.]

    Are you going to do anything about it?
    Can’t whinge all of your life.

  7. We support the Iraq govt in the fight against ISIS

    We don’t support ISIS, but ISIS is supported by Saudi Arabia – who we do like

    We don’t like Assad in Syria, We support the fight against him but ISIS is also fighting against him

    We don’t like Iran, but Uran supports the Iraq Govt in its fight against ISIS

    So, some of our friends support our enemies, some of our enemies are now our friends

    some of our enemies are fighting against our other enemies, who we want to lose

    but we don’t want our enemies who are fighting our enemies to win

    If the people we want to defeat are defeated, they could be replaced by people we like even less

    and all this started by us invading a country to drive out terrorists who were not actually in the country until after we went in to drive them out

    SEE its simple….

  8. Reading Turnbull’s NBN CBA, two things stand out like dogs balls.

    1. Although it is suggested the cost of buying the copper from Telstra is included in the bottom line, no cost has been allotted to it.

    2. The power costs of the FTTN cabinets is unclear. They are hoping for one wholesale contract, but no supplier is that silly at this point in time.

    Just these two assumption could mean billions of dollars of variation in the CBA results.

    ie, it is a load of sorbent.

  12. [ AussieAchmed
    Posted Wednesday, August 27, 2014 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    So, some of our friends support our enemies, some of our enemies are now our friends

    some of our enemies are fighting against our other enemies, who we want to lose

    but we don’t want our enemies who are fighting our enemies to win

    SEE its simple….]

    The US founding fathers had it about right, viz –

    *Avoid foreign entanglements*

    Orwell got a few right as well

    [ “All the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting.”

    and

    …“War against a foreign country only happens when the moneyed classes think they are going to profit from it.” ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-25/10-george-orwell-quotes-predicted-life-2014-america

  13. AussieAchmed

    Yep it is simple. . We supported rebels fighting to remove an undemocratic regime in Syria as we facilitated the ousting of a democratically elected government in Egypt by an army general.

  16. Sickening.

    Retweeted by Graeme Innes
    PWD Australia (PWDA) ‏@PWDAustralia 11m

    “More than a quarter of rape cases reported by women in Australia are perpetrated against women with disability” #disabilityrightsUN

  20. Kenneth Tsang ‏@jxeeno 28s

    If I’m reading correctly, if CBA didn’t fiddle with the Strategic Review numbers (p52) – the net cost diff between FTTP MTM is only $2.3bn?

  21. Btw ABC774 this afternoon replayed Alan jones comments to Josh frydenberg and Anna Burke who participate in a weekly segment.
    Jones went on a rant about a letter he received expressing concerns about the 30,000 illegal people currently living in the community. Wtte that even if half a percent are radicalised, there would be 150 potential terrorists currently amongst us.
    Bottom line, Jones is again inciting fear in the community.

  24. zoidlord

    Amazing they came up with a number lower than what NBNco had done . A mere $60 billion lower than Turnbull’s estimate 🙂

  25. victoria@771

    Btw ABC774 this afternoon replayed Alan jones comments to Josh frydenberg and Anna Burke who participate in a weekly segment.
    Jones went on a rant about a letter he received expressing concerns about the 30,000 illegal people currently living in the community. Wtte that even if half a percent are radicalised, there would be 150 potential terrorists currently amongst us.
    Bottom line, Jones is again still inciting fear in the community.

    You got it wrong Vic. 😛

    Now worries, easily fixed.

  26. @poroti/774

    Yeah kind of makes a mockery of what Turnbull said about Labor’s NBN being expensive.

    Now it’s about “It’s not worth it”.

  29. zoidlord

    And weren’t the MSM all over Turnbull’s ridiculous claims…. NOT. FFS look at how the “truth seekers” over at Polifact rated his bullshit.

    [ Malcolm Turnbull’s claim that the NBN would cost $94 billion has been rated as half-true by PolitiFact]

  31. As i mentioned this morning, a couple of terror plots were thwarted during labor’s tenure. You did not hear them inciting fear within the community. This govt disgusts me

  34. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 16s

    No data retention report from @SenatorLudlam until the end of October now because they’re extending out the committee.

  35. poroti@783

    As predicted by people earlier PvO on tv goes the full “they all do it” re the Ab Bot’s travel rort.

    The same disgusting line run by all losers – and much beloved of the various Green members here – “but they are all as bad as each other!”

  37. victoria

    There some BS about Gillard telling Muslims to go home if the didn’t like Australia. Turned out to be a Lib beat up I recall.

  38. I am annoyed to the point of ‘how annoyed can one person be’ when I see Julia Gillard mentioned. She has been conspicuous by her absence, and this is only one more thing that I think shows her class. There!, got me, I like JG.

  39. [Are you going to do anything about it?
    Can’t whinge all of your life.]

    Oh yes I can. In any case I’m participating in the great public sphere that is PB.

    (though it looks like I missed pointless knob hour again).

    Nothing about Abbott’s travel claim on ABC 7pm. Did they get stood over?

  42. [ Steve777
    Posted Wednesday, August 27, 2014 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    If Jihadis didn’t exist the Abbott Government would have to invent them.]

    Very little questioning going on in the media as to why it looks like our airforce is off to bomb people on the other side of the world.

    Being just accepted as normal. Not even the No side of the argument being put or aired.

  43. Weird going ons it the Reps. The FOFA bills get the floor at 4:15 the ALP gets to speak for almost 3 hours uninterrupted, then the Adjournment Debate kicks in.

    Seems the Govt has no legislation it wants to introduce. It could have passed the fofa in 30 mins.

  44. dave

    I agree.

    It’s very worrying that the media treat being involved in conflict as inevitable. A good PM & government would avoid it.

  48. I wonder who is in possession of the stuff we dropped on the mountain with the starving people , who actually were not there.

    Any evidence that ISIS has not grabbed it?

  49. [ FFS it’s all non stop war on terror, war hawks on Toolman’s 7.30. What a friggin joke. ]

    Expect this for the next two years … all the way to the next election.

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