Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor’s post-budget bounce.

Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 19
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  1. So that is at least four murdered women in Australia in less than a week, leaving seven motherless children. The two mothers murdered had left violent relationships and were outspoken advocates for victims of family violence.

    Where is the outcry? Where is the urgent actions by our policians and community leaders? Where is the extra funding, the extra staff, the advertising campaigns, the laws pushed through in haste?

    Where is the equivlent to the One-Punch response or the Jihadis Under Our Beds campaign?

    If these women were AFL players or soldiers or Catholic priests, would were hear the same deafening sound of silence and the heavy weight of ‘I don’t give a rat’s”?

  2. Are we at the point where disgraced ex-Libs in the NSW Parliament outnumber ALP members in the Qld Parliament?

    Seven ex-Liberals are now on the crossbench while two have left Parliament. Together that equals the number of Labor members (9) in the qld Parliament.

    Other questions:
    1. Is Mike Baird ’embattled’ yet?
    2. Is his government in chaos?

    I haven’t seen either headline yet.

  3. [ Is Mike Baird ‘embattled’ yet? ]

    He is getting an easy ride – its his party and he is the boss.

    He gave assurances that there were *no more* involved months ago.

  10. “The Senate has begun the debate on the urgency motion concerning the Racial Discrimination Act that I flagged with you at 12.30pm. Thus far it’s Labor voices.”

  12. dave:

    [He is getting an easy ride – its his party and he is the boss.]

    A few days ago, the local Murdoch rag had a front page headline “Magic Mike”. So they’re taking a stand against corruption in govt ranks. 😛

  13. Trog Sorrenson Posted Wednesday, August 27, 2014 at 3:03 pm @ 687

    Climate action from the US. Obama pursuing a global accord – should get up Abbott’s nose and with G20 ramifications.

    Maybe Tony will be keen to have Putin come to the G20 after all. He probably doesn’t want to be the only one there who opposes action on climate change.

  15. Lib Senator Dean Smith:

    “Smith notes that he’d like to have seen the government maintain its commitment to have a debate about the wording of section 18C of the RDA as it currently stands. He understands why the reform has been shelved for now, but he suspects the debate will roll on.”

  16. Odd coming from a liberal….

    “Dean Smith tells the senate the best way forward, always, is to trust Australians with their freedom”

  17. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-visit-to-cancer-hospital-used-to-justify-fundraising-visit-20140826-108nxo.html

    Does the ABC Radio National News department read the SMH?

    Apparently not.

    I was in the car and listened to their SA hourly news broadcast and the lead item, in depth, was Julie Bishop cutting a deal with the Indonesians that will help protect us from those pesky terrorists.
    The ABC followed that up with 4 local crime related stories including an AFL footballer fined with speeding.
    Then the weather.

    No mention of Tony diddling the system or of the multiple leaks from within the party room.

  19. What $550 Abbott?

    [HOMEOWNERS are getting the shock of their lives with their latest electricity bills.

    Electricity accounts appear to have spiked considerably in the past quarter and many Sunshine Coast residents have been left scratching their heads wondering why.

    One homeowner, Melanie McRae, from Mount Coolum, couldn’t believe her latest bill amount. It had doubled from $800 in the same quarter last year to $1600.

    What made the total worse was that during this period, the McRae family of five, including three children under 13, had been away for two weeks.

    They have no swimming pool and although they do have ducted air-conditioning, Mrs McRae says they use this “very carefully”.

    She was quick to discover she wasn’t the only person frustrated at the sudden surge in the cost of the utility.

    Bruce Blair, a resident in nearby Mount Coolum, also couldn’t believe his bill had gone up from the usual $600-$700 to “over $1000”.

    The Blair household includes six people, and the family tries to keep the bill low, using “all the discounts”.

    The bill of another Mount Coolum resident, Janine Cullity, went up about $200 from about $700 to $900.

    The Queensland Competition Authority, the regulator of electricity prices, said even though the carbon tax no longer applied from July 1, electricity prices were expected to increase by 30% in 2014-15.]

    http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/missed-by-meter-reader-power-bill-delivers-shocks-/2365779/

  20. Re Poroti @705: I wonder why Christopher Pyne isn’t getting Dixers asking him to explain the benefits of his education ‘reforms’?

    Perhaps Labor should ask Peter Dutton to provide the evidence that people are going to the Doctor too often and need to be deterred by a GP Tax.

  22. [The Queensland Competition Authority, the regulator of electricity prices, said even though the carbon tax no longer applied from July 1, electricity prices were expected to increase by 30% in 2014-15.]

    Wakey wakey punters! The CO2 price had bugger all to do with rising power prices. You’re thinking of our ridiculous system of perverse incentives to gold-plate infrastructure.

    That system remain firmly in place. Its a spiv’s paradise.

  23. BK

    Two things strike me from the Chaplain story, first is it was leaked from Cabinet. Second that:

    [At the same cabinet meeting, Liberal Party officials reportedly told ministers to…]

    Its a Cabinet meeting, wtf are Party Officials doing there?

  24. BK
    It is true. There are Degree qualified secular youth workers and social workers employed under the Chaplaincy program who are losing their jobs to dubiously-trained religious chaplains.

  25. “Here now is a statement from the prime minister’s office concerning Australia’s role in Iraq. This statement says there is no consideration of combat troops. It leaves the issue of airstrikes open.”

    So we going to war anyway.

  26. Does the ABC Radio National News department read the SMH?

    I think they get their early morning news from The Australian and the Daily Telegraph.

  28. For Queenslanders using Ergon energy for their Electricity supply:

    Cost Before July 01 2014 29.4c per KWh
    After July 01 2014 27.9c per KWh
    Decrease of 5.06%

    Service Fee
    Before July 01 2014 55.2c per Day
    After July 01 2014 91.8c per Day
    Increase of 66.13%

    Net Effect – the bill has increased by 4.14%

    This is a before and after picture of GST reduction and a simultaneous Service Fee increase. Other increases had occurred earlier in the year making the year on year far worse.

  29. [lefty e
    Posted Wednesday, August 27, 2014 at 3:09 pm | PERMALINK
    How long can can the hopelessly compromised shills at Limited News avoid TravelClaimGate? asks New Matilda…

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/27/abbotts-blood-water-and-news-limiteds-nowhere-be-found

    I think its just dawning on folks now how enormous this is.]

    The car radio told me that the usual shock jocks are trying to depict the story as an undeserved slur on the good name of Abbott.

  30. Why is the Federal Government funding school chaplains when the budget is supposedly so desparately in need of repair? Surely this piece of social engineering that can be dropped, saving about $60 million per annum.

    By the way, was a cost-benefit study ever done for this program?

  31. [How is it justified that the cost of electricity jumped by 30% in one financial year??]

    It isnt. Its a major scandal, and heads must roll.

    Fingers pointing to corruption, spivdom, privatisation, lousy ‘faux-marketisation’ policies involving no actual competition, PPPs and other hucksterism posing as ‘trends in public policy’.

    FACT: You have to keep these spivs on a leash, or they’ll rob you blind.

  32. [Service Fee
    Before July 01 2014 55.2c per Day
    After July 01 2014 91.8c per Day
    Increase of 66.13%]

    This is how the criminal spiv class aims to get around increasing uptake of household solar.

  35. The power of hundreds of people ringing a pollies office.

    [The Coalition MP George Christensen has admitted he was wrong to support the dumping of 5m tonnes of sediment into the Great Barrier Reef marine park and has said he will push for alternatives to the plan.

    In an open letter to readers of the Whitsunday Times and Whitsunday Coast Guardian, Christensen said: “Politicians don’t often say they got it wrong, but here it is: I got it wrong.”

    The federal member for Dawson, an electorate which lies adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef, said he “didn’t foresee the angst the dumping of dredge spoil in the Great Barrier Reef marine park would cause tourism operators and the residents of the Whitsundays”.]

    Politicians only say they got it wrong when they can see a loss at the next election.

  36. This is article published in NY times that fairfax subsequently reported. Josh frydenberg Parliamentary secretary to Abbott was asked about this on ABC774 this afternoon. He says that it is speculation

    WASHINGTON — The United States has begun to mobilize a broad coalition of allies behind potential American military action in Syria and is moving toward expanded airstrikes in northern Iraq, administration officials said on Tuesday.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/27/world/middleeast/us-mobilizes-allies-to-widen-assault-on-isis.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&assetType=nyt_now&_r=0

  40. [He (Obama) said that the United States was building a coalition to “take the fight to these barbaric terrorists,”

    Ooooo war, Tony will be getting all lathered up.

  41. Tweet from Margo kingston

    [A fundraiser should not be private! Public has a right to know who buys access to PM. Yet Abbott charges taxpayer! We need a federal #ICAC.]

  44. [“didn’t foresee the angst the dumping of dredge spoil in the Great Barrier Reef marine park would cause tourism operators and the residents of the Whitsundays”]

    Stuff the corals and the fish. Can’t these fools see anything except votes?

  47. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, August 27, 2014 at 5:16 pm | PERMALINK
    Check out the poll on the NBN

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/polls/federal-politics/political-news/nbn-plan–labor-or-coalition-20140827-3edp9.html#poll ]

    With Labor’s NBN polling 81% from 7300 votes, it is a bit of a walkover.

    There have been a number of polls lately with similarly skewed results – either the Labor ‘hacks’ are out in force or there is a strong community reaction to various Coalition moves.

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