Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll delivers the same two-party preferred result as ReachTEL, adding to an impression of a slow and steady deflation of Labor’s post-budget bounce.

Stephen Murray tweets that Newspoll has come in at 51-49 in favour of Labor, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. Both parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 40% and Labor at 34%. Labor’s missing point on two-party preferred is down to a two-point drop on an excessive reading last time for the Greens, who are now at 11%. Bill Shorten has recovered the narrowest of leads as preferred prime minister, leading 40-39 after trailing 41-37 last time, and his personal ratings are solidly improved on the previous poll, with satisfaction up three to 39% and dissatisfaction down four to 40%. Tony Abbott’s ratings are effectively unchanged at 36% satisfaction (steady) and 55% dissatisfaction (down one). The poll also finds 77% support for laws requiring visitors returning from certain areas to prove they weren’t in contact with terrorists.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Labor retains its 52-48 lead from Essential Research, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote – the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 37% – and the Greens up one to 10%. A question on “Australia’s best Treasurer” – recently, at least – has Peter Costello beating Paul Keating 30% to 23%, with Wayne Swan on 8%, Joe Hockey on 5% and 35% opting for don’t know. Bernard Keane in Crikey notes that Costello “benefited from great ambivalence from Greens voters, 52% of whom declared ‘don’t know’ rather than endorse the more progressive Keating”, and Swan stole more votes from Labor supporters than Hockey did from the Coalition. The poll also found 38% of respondents rating Chinese investment as good for the economy versus 36% who said it wasn’t. The remaining questions dealt with social class, which 79% of respondents agreed existed, 31%, 49% and 2% respectively nominating themselves as working, middle and upper. Most interestingly, association of the parties with particular classes has increased since April last year, 41% associating Labor with the working class and 47% the Liberals with the upper class, up from 30% and 40%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

910 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. mikehilliard@651

    poroti

    That was me who thought it was 160, I just can’t keep up with the terror.

    Well, George Brandis SC DH has just sorted it out. 60 fighting overseas, 100 here supporting them, including some who have returned.

  2. mike hilliard

    The 160 number has definitely been used before so you were right there. I am sure Peta’s puppet will be back at the 150+ mark just as soon as she gets a hold of him.

  3. “@SabraLane: Alannah McT just made an interjection to the Ed Minister’s response … something about Kathy Jackson …. and was booted for it.”

  4. @bemused/658

    Then your incorrect that saying that I don’t know him 🙂

    Hockey on Pensioners:
    “I am actually advised that over the next decade the pension is going to increase by 5.1% on annualised basis. It is important that we ensure that the age pension is sustainable. It is hugely important that we ensure that the age pension remains affordable.”

    Umm that’s not possible on a CPI indexation.

  5. zoidlord@660

    @bemused/658

    Then your incorrect that saying that I don’t know him

    Hockey on Pensioners:
    “I am actually advised that over the next decade the pension is going to increase by 5.1% on annualised basis. It is important that we ensure that the age pension is sustainable. It is hugely important that we ensure that the age pension remains affordable.”

    Umm that’s not possible on a CPI indexation.

    You were not aware of his references to “the dreaded thought police”.
    From a review…
    [The “Party” has taken over all aspects of life and is intent on eradicating individuality. Winston is painfully aware of the telescreen, which is both a receiver and transmitter at the same time. It incessantly relays messages from the Party and simultaneously allows the dreaded “thought police” to tune into the activities of any individual at any given time.]
    I notice you are continuing your war on “you’re”.

  6. *pukes*

    From national security to border security. The immigration minister Scott Morrison is invited to reflect on his enormous portfolio success. Morrison is happy to oblige.

  7. “@workmanalice: “It’s like getting Chopper Reid to review parole conditions” – @edhusicMP #qt heckle on Turnbull’s NBN review”

  8. “That’s Hockey, furious, about a question from Shorten about the planned privatisation of Australian Hearing, and its potential impact on a young boy he met recently.”

    “Hockey notes Labor is the party that sold Qantas and the Commonwealth Bank. When it had principles. No principles now. Just opportunism.”

    Back to “they did it first”.

    Commonwealth Bank and Qantas are quiet different, Australian Hearing is essential and falk like Hockey don’t understand.

    Hockey thinks Australian Hearing is just another asset to be sold, he couldn’t care less about those with hearing difficulties.

  9. [Eddie Obeid ‏@HonEddieObeid · 3m
    Cross bench to announce shadow ministry tomorrow. @sarahgerathy @Kate_McClymont @MWhitbourn]

  10. “@TimWattsMP: Speaker gives the entire Government Frontbench the opportunity to defend Joe Hockey’s performance & not one person takes the chance! #qt”

  11. Breaking news: NSW Lib MP Bart Bassett has quit the party and now joins the crossbench.

    Other news: Crossbench will announce its shadow ministry tomorrow.

  12. Is Chrissy Pyne still expecting team Labor’s apology for Kathy Jackson? Lol!

    [Health Services Union whistleblower Kathy Jackson allegedly gave her husband Jeff $50,000 from a slush fund she controlled as part of a property settlement, the royal commission into union corruption has heard.

    Ms Jackson told a previous hearing of the royal commission she believed a $50,000 bank cheque she gave her ex-husband was for fighting a union election.

    But in startling evidence yesterday, Mr Jackson said he received a $50,000 cheque in March, 2009 from Ms Jackson as part of a property settlement.

    The money was deposited into a joint bank account he held with Ms Jackson, which he said he solely operated in 2009]

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/health-services-union-whistleblower-kathy-jacksons-husband-says-she-gave-him-50000-20140827-108xg8.html#ixzz3BZ2Ca2G1

  13. [Breaking news: NSW Lib MP Bart Bassett has quit the party and now joins the crossbench.]

    Are we at the point where disgraced ex-Libs in the NSW Parliament outnumber ALP members in the Qld Parliament?

  14. As per link posted by lefty above.

    I missed qt today.
    I didnt think Shorten would ask about it

    [The television networks will be all over it tonight – they got all the vision they needed when Opposition leader Bill Shorten used Question Time to turn up the heat. All they need now is a shot of Tony Abbott running from a camera with his hand over his face. Or maybe just standing there mute, ignoring questions. Either will do.]

  15. [Are we at the point where disgraced ex-Libs in the NSW Parliament outnumber ALP members in the Qld Parliament?]

    It is presently a tie

  16. [Defective electrical cabling sold through major hardware stores and fitted in 40,000 homes and businesses nationwide has been recalled due to a risk of fire.

    The consumer watchdog said 18 retailers and wholesalers had recalled cables supplied by Infinity Cable Co Pty Ltd after testing found it failed to meet safety standards.

    The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission warned that poor quality coating on the cables may break and cause a fire.

    “Testing has found that the cables will degrade prematurely and if the cables are disturbed, the insulation could break and expose live conductors, resulting in possible electric shock or fires,” ACCC chairman Rod Sims said.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/accc-forces-recall-of-electrical-cabling-sold-nationwide-and-fitted-in-40000-buildings-20140827-108yks.html

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