What I believe will be the farewell Nielsen poll for the Fairfax papers shows no dividend to Tony Abbott of the carbon tax repeal or (so far) the MH17 response, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 at last month’s poll to 54-46. The poll of 1400 respondents was conducted from Thursday to Sunday, from which you can draw your own conclusions about its likely responsiveness to what’s occurred over that time. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady at 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and Palmer United steady on 5%. However, Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have improved: his approval is up three to 38% with disapproval down four to 56%, the gap on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-40 to 46-41, and while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 44%. Even more entertainingly, there are personal ratings for Clive Palmer (approval 37%, disapproval 51%) and a preferred treasurer poll (Joe Hockey’s lead narrowing from 51-34 in a poll conducted I-don’t-know-how-long-ago to 42-42 now.
UPDATE: Phil Coorey in the Financial Review relates results on the leaders’ personal characteristics; more from Michelle Grattan at The Conversation.
Providing the link but not commenting!!
http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2432662/labor-must-understand-rural-women-zuvele-leschen/?cs=11
[
Wow Borodai has wheeled the Malaysians out, is now lecturing about how Kiev is responsible for downing MH17, with Malaysians standing silent
]
vic
Classy stuff from the Separatists.
[Classy stuff from the Separatists.]
Hmmm but does that mean effectively malaysia with the black boxes is aligned with Moscow. If so official conclusion will be Kiev responsible. Wow if so.
zoomster
Good stuff. 🙂
victoria
Thanks for the quotes telling us of Labor’s utter stupidity & wastefulness in pursuing that silly seat on the Security Council. It’d be nice to see a serious researcher compile a list of those comments & there’d be plenty of them
WWP
I dont think it means that at all. Malaysian authorities are seeking outcomes. Being lectured by pro Russian separatists does not infer their innocence.
WeWantPaul
I think the Malaysians just wanted to get the Black Boxes and get hell out of there. There was a Dutch representative there as well apparently.
[
Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM · 47m
Malaysia delegation says he isn’t interests in blame game, but just wants black boxes because they “are property of Malaysia.”
]
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM
BSA Bob
Oops meant to add
Thanks to Bernard Keane for tweeting them
WWP
[does that mean effectively malaysia with the black boxes is aligned with Moscow.]
How on earth could it be interpreted that way ?
Another good one from Bernard Keane
[Strange the amazing powers of persuasion the Tele attributes to Abbott re Putin somehow fail to work on crossbench senators.]
The Malaysians gave demonstrated the power of quiet diplomacy in achieving results.
Almost certainly Malaysia will involve the US (and probably the EU) in downloading the contents of the black box flight recorders. They have the technical expertise that most countries do not.
Equally important is examination of the plane debris on the ground to determine what happened and to search for conclusive evidence of an explosion.
The agreement between Malaysia and the rebels to bring the human remains to Holland is also a vital step forward.
[Abbott, 2012, on the Security Council bid: “Our Prime Minister shouldn’t be swanning around in New York talking to Africans” #Auspol #MH17]
But according to the Tele, Abbott is “Putin on the pressure”. What a frickin joke
[@markjs1 @TheKouk So while Australia was busy being all hairy chested, the Malaysians & Dutch were quietly going about getting things done?]
Sceptic #687
No! No! No!
Michael Photios could not have done anything wrong!
His Liberal bankrupted business mate Mr Daniel says so.
“Michael wouldn’t use a friendship we had in the past to advance a business interest with me. No way … He’s more professional than that,” he said.”
So there you have it. Case over. Liberals are squeaky clean.
[How on earth could it be interpreted that way ?]
Apparently it can’t – I couldn’t remember where Malaysia aligned Russia – China – US wise.
The current CNN story on MH17 details the Malaysian and Dutch initiatives in achieving progress with the rebels. It also mentions the UN Security Council resolution. However the story makes no mention of the Abbott and JBishop chest thumping.
[The U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution Monday demanding full access to the crash site and condemning the downing of the plane. The resolution won unanimous approval from the 15-member council, which includes Russia. It did not specify who was responsible for the crash.
Despite the stern tone of the Ukrainian and U.S. leaders, the spokesman for a team of European monitors at the site said conditions have improved since a chilly reception immediately after Flight 17 fell from the sky.
“Today we have three Dutch forensics experts with us, and they’re getting pretty much unfettered access,” Michael Bociurkiw, the spokesman for monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, told CNN’s Chris Cuomo.
Dutch forensic experts and a handful of Ukrainian aviation experts worked the scene Monday, Bociurkiw said separately in a briefing for reporters hosted by the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center.]
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/21/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-airlines-crash/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
WeWantPaul
China sent Malaysia a couple of Pandas in May so I suppose their relationship would be OK.
Abbott has hit the high water mark of involvement in MH17
Now the journalists will cover memorials for families and what other countries are doing.
The political distraction part of the tragedy is over. Thus no political advantage for Abbott.
As a consequence inevitably journalists will have to write articles about how bad it is that Abbott could not get his budget passed.
@jason_om: Looks like #highcourt153 could drag on today. Defence was not filed by deadline last night @abcnews #asylum #auspol
After all the slagging off of locals a bit of praise.
[The report from east Ukraine from Harriet Salem (@HarrietSalem) continues, with a Dutch expert saying that rebels and locals who helped recover bodies may not have been as callous as previously thought:
Given the hot weather, the size of the crash site and the military operations going on in the vicinity, the operation was “very difficult” and he was impressed with the efforts of local emergency workers and volunteers, who have spent three days sifting corpses and body parts from the crash site. He added though, that the area needed a “full, forensic sweep” by proper experts.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/21/mh17-disaster-ukraine-obama-live-updates
psyclaw:
[“Michael wouldn’t use a friendship we had in the past to advance a business interest with me. No way … He’s more professional than that,” he said.” ]
Well, you can take that to the bank!
Malaysia is a member of the Non Aligned Movement (anyone remember that?) This is the Wikipedia page on Malaysia’s foreign relations.
jules
Well remembered. I’d forgotten they even existed.
680 poroti
[What Obamacare means for poor Americans.]
The term Obamacare is originally termed by its opponents as attributing something that they believe will fail to Obama. Eventually both supporters and opponents used the term so much so that it is accepted by many of supporters into normal use. Kind of like our “carbon tax”.
Source
If the act doesn’t get butchered and sticks around, I guess Obama will have his name stamped on it by pure luck as the creator of it.
Kakura
I suspect the money is already in the bank…….. wife’s account, or family trust account!
poroti – I had to look it up… but it seemed familiar. I knew they were in ASEAN and aligned with Islamic blocs and supported Palestine and suspected they might have been involved in something reasonably independent. But I haven’t heard the term “non aligned movement” since i wore a pink t shirt.
To be fair, both Abbott and Bishop have carried out their respective roles as PM and FM adequately over the last few days.
Much as one may dislike a workman say, it does mean with enough experience, they can kind of do their job.
Meanwhile, the West Australian newspaper – among others in the conservative press – have used the disaster of the Malaysian flight as a chance for full scale attempts to rehabilitate Abbott in the eyes of the electorate.
The editorial this morning verged on the effusive as it told us that once Abbott was free of the shackles of the Senate, poor opinion polls and the like, the true nature of Abbott’s leadership is there for all to see.
He has been front and centre being everything from the little tough guy standing up to Putin to the caring leader of the nation acting as a shoulder to cry on for families of the victims.
At the end of this peon of praise, the paper declares that Abbott is growing in the job and the country is in good hands.
I don’t know what the general public thinks but if the Falklands war is anything to go by, and perhaps Anna Bligh in Queensland, a little bit of ‘statesmanship’ seems to go a long way in terms of popularity for a short period of time.
What some see here as intemperate language by Abbott in this whole matter, others see as Abbott being a strong leader standing up to Putin and, according to Andrew Probyn in the West, saying what other Western leaders were just thinking and would like to say.
As a reflection, it is amazing once one is in office and can strut the world’s stage, how much more important becomes the UN and the Security Council, while when in opposition, these can be written off as a bad focus.
Then again the conservatives do hypocrisy better than most.
Raaraa
So the “name of shame” dreamt up by the Repugs likely to became a name of fame for Obama. Wonderful irony.
It does seem that events are now overtaking the Abbott rhetoric on MH17. He has now moved on to ‘bringing the attackers to justice’.
[PRIME Minister Tony Abbott says Australia will continue to do everything it can to bring the MH17 attackers to justice after the UN backed an Australian resolution demanding full access for investigators.]
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/australia-will-keep-pushing-on-mh17-pm/story-e6frfku9-1226996995766
‘Bringing the attackers to justice’ is a process that could occupy Abbott for years.
Remember this
[“But the really important thing is that right now our Prime Minister is in New York spruiking for this Security Council bid. She should be in Jakarta, not in New York, because that is where Australia’s national interest is most at stake right now,” he told 2GB.
“Rather than talking to African countries, trying to drum up the numbers to get us a temporary seat on the UN Security Council, she should be in Jakarta talking to President Yudhoyono about how we can co-operate better with the Indonesians to stop this flow which is putting our border protection hopelessly under the pump.”
Mr Abbott said improving relationships with Indonesia should be a priority.]
http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/focus-on-boats-not-un-abbott-tells-pm-20120924-26gfg.html
Looks like the fog is here to stay all day here in Melbourne town
This seems a pretty good summary of the days events in the Ukraine.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/22/mh17-black-boxes-handed-over-pro-russia-rebels
“@MWhitbourn: Morning #ICAC buffs. Darrell Hendry, the long-term business associate of ex UNE chancellor John Cassidy, is expected to give evidence today.”
[To be fair, both Abbott and Bishop have carried out their respective roles as PM and FM adequately over the last few days.
]
I couldn’t disagree more. They have achieved nothing while the Dutch collected the bodies and the Malaysians collected the black boxes. Abbott has form as being delighted to try and earn political capital from tragedy and this is no different. I don’t see how anyone would give his political point scoring and foolish bullying anything other than contempt.
“@COBrienBris: Will you change seats, @theqldpremier ? “No. I’ve been pre-selected Ashgrove. & I’m never answering that question again.” @abcnews #qldpol”
And on more bread and butter issues, the guy who does my simple tax return mentioned to me yesterday, that one of the surprises he came across is the fact that from 2015 the claims for out-of-pocket medical expenses – up to a limit of 20% – will go.
This was news to me.
My guy expressed total frustration at the way the government is handling all this tax stuff as he is unsure whether to plan on the basis of existing legislation which is likely to go (if and when) or rely on what is to come.
In any event, he suggested the days of keeping detailed records of medical, dental and chemist expenses associate with scripts, with a view to claiming the 20% will soon be over as there will be no kind of tax relief in any event.
UN Green Climate Fund $1 billion from Germany.
Climate Council @climatecouncil 3m
ICYMI: Germany Pledges $1 Billion to UN Green Climate Fund http://bloom.bg/1lnHHNi
Morning all. Impressive diplomatic achievement by Malaysia, but they probably only succeeded because Putin had been softened up by Abbott’s phone call and pressure. Putin was no doubt rattled by media images of Abbott in speedos, even more impressive than media images of a bare chested Putin.
(I am practising for a possible future role as a Murdoch reporter! 🙂 )
MH17: The Australians get their resolution
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2014/07/22/MH17-Australia-united-nations-resolution.aspx?COLLCC=3230593751&
716 WWP
[Apparently it can’t – I couldn’t remember where Malaysia aligned Russia – China – US wise.]
Malaysia was part of the Non-Aligned Movement back during the cold war.
Malaysia as far as I know tries its best not to look like it’s part of the West, but neither do they want to associate completely with the former communist states.
Malaysia has trade links with Cuba on researching Pharmaceutical trials along with other countries like Canada.
Malaysia has trade links with China, with China top of its list in imports and exports (other than Singapore), however, part of their relationship is strained, together with many other ASEAN countries due to the Spratly Islands dispute.
Malaysia has a deal with Russia with supplying Sukhoi fighter jets.
More info
WWP@735
Fair enough, but I was trying to convey the domestic political impact and the general competence of Abbott and Bishop in just carrying out their expected role.
I likened this role to that of a carpenter. A carpenter can usually cut a bit of wood or nail a nail even though they may not turn out to be much good in the broader sense
Abbott and Bishop know how to be politicians and they have done it okay as they live the job.
Apart from the grandstanding and chest thumping, the attendance at church services, the soft and caring words, the tough/soft contrast is what any savvy politician would do at this point in time.
How different would either Rudd or Gillard been confronted with the same set of circumstances?
As I said, neither Thatcher nor Anna Bligh lost out in the opinion polls when they put on the statesman hat.
Another hidden tax it seems:
http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/550474/data_retention_iinet_raises_spectre_surveillance_tax_isp_customers/
“In an edited excerpt from a submission iiNet has lodged with the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, the ISP stated that “collecting and keeping every customer’s ‘metadata’ would require the construction of many new data centres, each storing petabytes … of information at a cost of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. There is no suggestion that the government would pay these costs, so our customers will be expected to pick up these costs in the form of a new surveillance tax.””
Coalition Party do love taxes.
Who needs a war for senseless violence ? Just spend a weekend in Chicago.
[Residents of Chicago were agonising again on Monday on what ails their city after another weekend of chaotic gun violence that saw at least 40 people shot ……………… the 4 July weekend which saw a shocking spike in shootings. In a four-day period, 82 people were shot across the Windy City, with 17 killed.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/chicago-under-fire40-shot-in-one-weekend-as-gun-violence-surges-9619761.html
Now that the UN Security Council resolution on MH17 has received unanimous approval, including from Russia, there seems no reason that Abbott could now advance to ban Putin from the G20.
This was always a hollow threat anyway. Abbott does not own G20 and, despite being the host nation this time, Australia would be very unwise to propose banning a member from attending.
Abbott’s plan to not have climate change discussed at G20, despite Obama’s determination otherwise, is also likely to be thwarted. Even if it is not included on the formal agenda, it will be discussed in the corridors.
[If the separatists honor the agreement, it would be a diplomatic success for Mr. Najib, whose government has been reluctant to cast blame for the airline disaster]
Abbott v. Putin was Little Thug against Big Thug. Big Thug always wins.
Bellowing against kids in the playground, and threatening women at university is not in the weight division of Russian strong men, who have been influencing the fate – usually disadvantageously – of hundreds of millions for centuries.
They’ve seen hordes of goosestepping braggarts come looking for trouble, only to be utterly defeated, forced to return whence they came to lick their wounds (if they’re not already dead).
When are we as a nation going to learn that Rule By Thuggery is no way to run this country?
Abbott’s inner bully is striving to get out. Every time he hesitates over a convoluted utterance, tying his tongue in knots of exquisite indecision, his cringeworthy speech impediment rendering him all but impotent as the fake statesman struggles with the real palooka, he dies another political death.
We are watching a man at war with his inner demons, denying his true nature in favour of an ersatz creation of his batallions of stage managers and spin doctors: Abbott the leader.
He sees no connection between the initial “unfavourable” impression formed of him by Putin in Indonesia and the disdain now being shown by the Russian leader for his puny efforts to strut the world stage. While Abbott studiously ignored the Pacific’s leaders to indulge in a mutual flattery session with the Canadian Prime Minister, Putin formed his opinion of Abbott: he is a weak man who needs praise far too much.
What works in the Coalition party room – where he has only Joe Hockey to intimidate and bamboozle – does not necessarily work at the international level, where actual wars are fought and actual people get killed.
Quiet diplomacy by the humble Malaysians has won through where antagonism has foundered. As someone said above, it’s the outcome that the Malaysians focused upon, not the swagger.
Which is why, of course, the polls will offer little improvement for Abbott over this business. Once a liar, always a liar. Once a papered-over, thin-lipped, tight-skinned phoney, always just that. Like the separatist thugs he enjoys kicking (from a safe distance), he is no more than a local bovver boy, dangerous to those around him, but out of his league on the diplomatic stage.
Credlin’s Monster is getting us nowhere. He is upsetting and offending important people everywhere he goes. Time for a merciful end to his career as PM.
[How different would either Rudd or Gillard been confronted with the same set of circumstances?
]
I agree with much of what you say, I don’t think Gillard would have reacted so aggressively – more Anna Bligh like – Rudd might have struggled I don’t think his natural diplomatic public service triple speak would have worked and it would have been caned in the Murdoch organs. To be fair I am sure those same Murdoch organs would have been highly critical or Rudd or Gillard if they had behaved exactly the same as Tony.
I’d also add to 741 that Malaysians are as outraged at Russia as the Dutch are. So much so that this has overtaken the rage that was targeted at Israel just a few days before.
I saw many on my news feed of hatred against Jews because of the Gaza incident, but many of the cooler heads have spoken up and said, “blame the Zionists, not the Jews” after a few postings of videos of Jews protesting against Israel’s actions.
[The editorial this morning verged on the effusive as it told us that once Abbott was free of the shackles of the Senate, poor opinion polls and the like, the true nature of Abbott’s leadership is there for all to see.]
Sadly, only too true.
“@joshgnosis: Bill Shorten is the keynote speaker for the Australian Christian Lobby’s national conference in October.”
I think this is a mistake.