Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor

Personal ratings for Clive Palmer and a preferred Treasurer question spice up a poll result that’s otherwise much like all the others lately.

What I believe will be the farewell Nielsen poll for the Fairfax papers shows no dividend to Tony Abbott of the carbon tax repeal or (so far) the MH17 response, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 at last month’s poll to 54-46. The poll of 1400 respondents was conducted from Thursday to Sunday, from which you can draw your own conclusions about its likely responsiveness to what’s occurred over that time. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady at 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and Palmer United steady on 5%. However, Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have improved: his approval is up three to 38% with disapproval down four to 56%, the gap on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-40 to 46-41, and while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 44%. Even more entertainingly, there are personal ratings for Clive Palmer (approval 37%, disapproval 51%) and a preferred treasurer poll (Joe Hockey’s lead narrowing from 51-34 in a poll conducted I-don’t-know-how-long-ago to 42-42 now.

UPDATE: Phil Coorey in the Financial Review relates results on the leaders’ personal characteristics; more from Michelle Grattan at The Conversation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:28 pm | PERMALINK
    Kezza, the ethics you espouse are not those of the “country”, but of the criminal underclass.]

    Absolute piffle.

    People who live in the country, far away from the safe suburban hands of the law, have to resolve problems (legal) all the time.

    SNIP: What follows is yet more of Kezza’s deranged observations about Zoomster’s personal failings, which we would have heard quite enough of by now already even if she had any right to be making them, which she doesn’t.

  2. Russia didn’t detect any missile launch? Were they looking the other way?

    That was an attempt at being less subtle William 🙂

  3. [SNIP: What follows is yet more of Kezza’s deranged observations about Zoomster’s personal failings, which we would have heard quite enough of by now already even if she had any right to be making them, which she doesn’t.]

    No, they’re not deranged, whether you like it or not, they’re just examples of what really happens in country life.

    You have to make decisions, on the spot. And the only times cops are called are when they’re matters of life and death.

    You might not like it, but that’s what happens.

    You only have to look at criminal intent in the suburbs really. Just take your WA Minister Buswell, for example.

    What happened to him? That wasn’t country.

  4. kezza2@651

    William Bowe

    SNIP: What follows is yet more of Kezza’s deranged observations about Zoomster’s personal failings, which we would have heard quite enough of by now already even if she had any right to be making them, which she doesn’t.

    Awww go on William, share them with us. 👿

  5. Hey comrade did you see Newman is a new caring and sharing premier as from today. The meeting with the silks should be interesting. I wonder if Carmody will attend.

  6. in qld has Carmody been sworn in and if so isn’t he entitled to at least stay a supreme crt justice till retirement age? or can politicians remove judges in Qld?

  7. William
    [What?]

    Don’t talk about criminal underclass when suburban folk get off the most disgraceful behaviour.

    The havoc Buswell left in his wake; the cops did nothing.
    Until there was outrage by the press.

    And you wonder why country folk take some things into their own hands, when the ‘crime’ committed was next to nothing in the realm of things. That’s not criminal underclass. That’s commonsense.

  8. I’ll give you another example.

    When I moved to Motown, I hadn’t lived in suburbia for about 30 years.

    Every Friday night the bloke next door had a party. The music was loudish, not too bad. Even when I went to bed, it was only the bass thump that was really annoying, still I got used to it.

    The people over the road (street) didn’t. And they would call the cops. And then, because of the cars parked in the street, inevitably they’d knock on my door.

    That was more annoying than the party. Having to get up to answer the door.

    That lasted for a whole year. Every damn Friday night. What a waste of time, for the cops.

    Why didn’t the people across the street walk across and ask for the music to be turned down, instead of calling the cops.

    Baffled me.

    But it caused so much angst between those neighbours. And the rest of us in proximity. For no reason. I refused to take sides in what was, to me, the most trivial matter.

    Complete waste of everyone’s time. And money. And effort.
    When a few words would have sufficed.

  9. [No, they’re not deranged, whether you like it or not, they’re just examples of what really happens in country life.

    You have to make decisions, on the spot. And the only times cops are called are when they’re matters of life and death.

    You might not like it, but that’s what happens.

    You only have to look at criminal intent in the suburbs really. Just take your WA Minister Buswell, for example.

    What happened to him? That wasn’t country.]
    I’ve seen this movie. It is called Shame and it stars Deborra-Lee Furness (AKA Hugh Jackman’s wife):
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0093952/

  10. ShowsOn
    [I’ve seen this movie. It is called Shame and it stars Deborra-Lee Furness (AKA Hugh Jackman’s wife)]

    Not quite like that!

  11. [ Complete waste of everyone’s time. And money. And effort.
    When a few words would have sufficed. ]

    Actually Kezza, having been in that situation, a few words very often dont suffice when bozo with the thumping bass at all hours simply tells you to piss off and put up with it.

    Better than the police though is a diary, the council ranger, and the rental agent.

  12. imacca

    Weaned calves are worse!

    Seriously, the guy next door asked me one day what I thought about it.

    And I told him how irritating it was to get up to the police every Friday night, well actually in the early hours of Saturday morning.

    And that the neighbours across the street must be getting the full blast.

    A few weeks after that the parties ceased. Full stop.

  13. In the unlikely event that Newman would heed Palmer’s advise in calling an election now, I wonder if Labor is more likely to ask voters to “just vote 1” or swap preferences with the PUP? It is a bit of a double-edged sword.

  14. Good Morning.

    All credit to Team Australia on getting unanimous support on UN Resolution for access for investigators to have access to the MH17 crash site.

    I know it seems like Doh! it should have been supported as a matter of course. However many such things have failed. So I am pleased this has passed and is a good contribution from Abbott’s government on the world stage.

  15. guytaur

    It seems like a “Doh” because it wass. The only country that would possibly veto it was Russia and they agreed to it a couple of days ago.

  16. Oh and congratulations to Team Labor starting with Kevin Rudd continuing under Julia Gillard for getting Australia onto the Security Council.

  17. What Obamacare means for poor Americans.

    [Obamacare in Kentucky: The luxury of seeing a doctor

    She owns her home but works two jobs as a dental assistant to make ends meet. She did not vote for President Obama.

    Adams has had no health insurance since her divorce 30 years ago. A recent heart operation left her with a $67,000 bill
    I used to say, if I get hurt just let me be killed because I can’t afford to pay any more hospital bills,” she says.But Adams no longer has to worry

    …………The 26-year-old filling station cashier has just been told her enrolment in Obamacare is complete.

    Now she can have her first routine doctor’s appointment for seven years.
    I’ll go to the hospital only in an emergency,” says Sizemore, who is still paying off the $10,000 bill for removing her appendix two years ago. ]

    http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28337867

  18. [@JevenaC: Polled by EMRS on behalf of a ‘client’ wanting to know views on bikie laws & judiciary +local issues #UNeedAPoll ]

  19. Chortle

    [Mr Strong Choices also conceded that the relationship between his very strong government and the very stupid legal fraternity was not as good as it could be. Bearing this in mind he promised the people of Stafford, and the people of Queensland who he was beginning to worry might be every bit as stupid as the people of Stafford, that he and Attorney-General Bleijie-Petersen would be meeting with all the stupid judges and lawyers who weren’t very happy with them to explain how nothing would change.
    “We acknowledge that there has been some bad blood in recent times,” said Mr Strong Choices, “and I will therefore seek a meeting with the heads of the stupid legal profession, to sit down and really mend some fences, to actually sit down and very much recognise that we must work together and they must do as they’re told. I don’t think they’ve understood that so far and I take responsibility for their lack of understanding. I recognise now that nobody understands Mr Strong Choices because most of you just aren’t smart enough.”
    The one thing Mr Strong Choices said would not be changing were the strong choices he had made about selling off assets and sacking thousands of people and undoing the Fitzgerald reforms. “The people of Stafford have shown themselves to be a bit dense, I admit that,” said Mr Strong Choices. “But that’s their problem, not mine. The only choices are strong choices and I’ll be making them no matter how stupid they are.”
    The Premier’s office later released a clarification. The Premier meant the people were stupid, not the choices. The choices were awesome and he just didn’t know how people couldn’t see that. Stupid people.]

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/blogs/blunt-instrument/mr-strong-choices-still-thinks-youre-stupid-20140722-3cbuc.html#ixzz388gsH0xm

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Morrison’s bluff and bluster called out.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-backflips-and-grants-visa-to-boy-who-arrived-by-boat-20140721-3cbju.html
    More bad stuff for Morrison to “handle”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/manus-violence-eyewitnesses-claim-australians-forced-them-to-recant-20140721-3cbjt.html
    I think it needs a bit more than a ceasefire.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/gaza-death-toll-tops-500-as-us-steps-up-efforts-to-bring-about-ceasefire-20140722-zvhhe.html
    The CEFC spreads its wings after getting the Senate reprieve.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/clean-energy-finance-corporation-plans-expansion-after-dodging-axe-20140721-zvdhg.html
    A measly $900 and vindictive political action brings Slipper down.
    http://www.smh.com.au/act-news/peter-slipper-faces-act-court-to-defend-cabcharge-fraud-charges-20140721-zv0te.html
    Greg Jericho – keeping the mining tax won’t kill investment.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/jul/21/keeping-mining-tax-wont-kill-investment
    Peter Wicks on Kathy Jackson playing the mental health card.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/kathy-jackson-and-the-jacksonville-defence,6694
    Uni serfs go mediaeval to fight higher education reform.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/07/21/behold-uni-serfs-go-medieval-block-higher-ed-reforms
    Peter Martin – why planes and financial systems crash.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/mh17-why-planes-and-financial-systems-crash-20140721-zv80l.html
    The Productivity Commission is questioning the focus of Abbott’s PPL scheme.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/21/productivity-commission-sceptical-of-value-of-abbotts-parental-leave-scheme

  21. Given that the accounts of kezza’s childhood do seem to be right out of ‘Shame’, I would suggest that a bit more of a police presence might have been beneficial.

    Sorting it out themselves didn’t seem to have terrific results.

  22. And from the Land of the Free –

    There’s no doubt where religious freak Mike Huckabee stands on the Palestine conflict.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/huckabee-refers-palestinians-vicious-mad
    Repug civil war in Mississippi.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/21/1315521/-Republican-civil-war-in-Mississippi-goes-national
    Paul Krugman. It seems imaginary crises are a conservative thing.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/21/opinion/Paul-Krugman-An-Imaginary-Budget-and-Debt-Crisis.html?

  23. Where was Chris Uhlmann’s fine impartial investigative journalist skills while giving Kathy Jackson a free kick in the HSU scandal.

    Maybe he can do a program on it

  24. Morning all

    Bernard keane reminds us

    [“…Labor’s extravagant UN Security Council bid, which has distracted from core foreign policy interests.” Julie Bishop, 2010]

  25. And this

    [“There are vastly higher priorities for Australia right now than pursuing a seat on the security council.” Tony Abbott, 2010]

  26. Neil Mitchell doing his share of turd polishing this morning – claiming in his promo that it is clear now Australia is leading the world on the MH17 matter. I won’t be listening.

  27. Sir Mad Cyril

    As per twitter feed you linked

    [Wow Borodai has wheeled the Malaysians out, is now lecturing about how Kiev is responsible for downing MH17, with Malaysians standing silent]

  28. Darn

    Looks like Malaysia has brokered deal, not Australia

    [KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Prime Minister Najib Razak’s announcement that his government had reached an agreement with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, for the transfer of the bodies and so-called black boxes from Flight 17 to Malaysian representatives there, apparently achieved what pressure from far more powerful nations had failed to accomplish.]

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/22/world/asia/malaysia-premier-brokers-deal-to-recover-black-boxes.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=a-lede-package-region&region=lede-package&WT.nav=lede-package&_r=0

  29. [ictoria
    Posted Tuesday, July 22, 2014 at 8:37 am | PERMALINK
    Darn

    Looks like Malaysia has brokered deal, not Australia

    KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Prime Minister Najib Razak’s announcement that his government had reached an agreement with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, for the transfer of the bodies and so-called black boxes from Flight 17 to Malaysian representatives there, apparently achieved what pressure from far more powerful nations had failed to accomplish.]

    Vic

    How unsporting of those Malaysians to try and steal some of the glory from our own super hero (in his own mind) PM.

  30. victoria

    This from another NYT article on the agreement gives a hint as to why the Malaysians were successful.

    [Six Malaysian representatives were to oversee the transfer of the bodies in Kharkiv to the custody of the Netherlands.The so-called black boxes were to be handed over in Donetsk as well.

    If the separatists honor the agreement, it would be a diplomatic success for Mr. Najib, whose government has been reluctant to cast blame for the airline disaster]

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/22/world/europe/putin-calls-for-talks-in-ukraine-and-a-robust-crash-investigation.html

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